675
FXUS62 KMFL 141725
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
125 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1257 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Mid-level flow will become a bit more westerly tomorrow as the
northern stream shortwave increases in latitude just a bit. This
will open up a pathway for warm mid-level air from the Mexican
Plateau to advect across the Gulf over south Florida. Southerly
low-level flow today will advect abnormally warm maritime air
across south Florida, but more directly tomorrow as winds take on
a more southwesterly component as the surface low shifts east to
the Mid-Atlantic coast. The anomalous SSTs and near surface air
will surge an atypically warm and moist airmass across south
Florida. This will most likely result in heat advisory conditions
for a least a portion of south Florida tomorrow as heat indices
exceed 105-108 degrees. While dewpoints will be higher along the
west coast, temperatures will be higher along the east - having
the same overall effect on the heat indices and thus the
widespread threat.

As far as convection is concerned, this afternoon outflow from
storms to our north will interact with the seabreezes and initiate
convection across the Lake Region and Palm Beach county. Given the
still somewhat cool mid-level temperatures, presence of 30ish
knots of deep-layer shear, and steep mid-level lapse rates, storms
that develop have the potential to produce marginally severe hail
and damaging winds. The front associated with the aforementioned
shortwave will draw closer to north-central Florida tomorrow and a
little more convection may drift into the Lake Region, but in
general the isolated to scattered threat for storms will continue
tomorrow. The weakening dynamics and warming mid-level temps may
yield a slightly lower severe threat tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 201 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

A frontal boundary could enter south central Florida by Thursday,
briefly allowing a window for some increased rain chances but the
weak front lacks the support for more widespread activity which
could provide more substantial relief from the heat. Temperatures
aloft will cool to around -9 to -10C on Wednesday into Thursday
which could support an isolated strong storm or two.

The main story through this forecast period will be the potential
for hazardous heat which will linger into the weekend. Most of South
Florida could experience heat necessitating at least a Heat Advisory
through Saturday and this potential will be monitored through the
week. Afternoon high temperatures are expected to be in the 90s area-
wide each afternoon. Lower to mid 90s will be more likely for
coastal areas with portions of interior South Florida potentially
approaching the upper 90s or low 100s. Overnight low temperatures
along the east coast metro mid to late week could struggle to fall
below 80 degrees and even portions of the Naples metro may not fall
below the upper 70s. This could lead to a period of several days
where relentless sunshine, building heat, and a lack of relief
overnight could lead to escalating heat illness risk.

By the weekend, the mid-level low begins to exit into the Atlantic
off the Mid-Atlantic states with the potential for a southward
advancement of the associated front. If the front is able to move
into the area, it could provide a small bit of relief from the heat.
If the front stalls to the north, the excessive heat risk could
linger through the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1257 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

VFR will generally prevail through the TAF. The greatest risk for
TSRA will be at PBI this afternoon into the early evening.
Southerly winds gusting between 20-25kts will continue through the
afternoon and then subside to around 10 knots overnight. Winds
will turn a bit more southwesterly tomorrow, but could still gust
around 20 knots through the day.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1257 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Southerly flow around Advisory levels will continue through today,
turning southwest and remaining elevated through tomorrow as the
pressure gradient remains tight with low pressure passing through
the Southeast. Cautionary conditions should continue into the end
of the week until the low completely passes.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1257 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

The high rip current risk today may have to extend into tomorrow
as winds only slowly subside and onshore flow in the seabreeze
zone continues. The risk for rip currents should lessen towards
the end of the week as the low across the Mid-Atlantic moves
further away.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            80  95  80  95 /   0  20  20  40
West Kendall     78  97  76  96 /  10  10  20  30
Opa-Locka        80  97  78  96 /   0  20  20  40
Homestead        79  95  78  95 /  10  10  20  30
Fort Lauderdale  80  95  79  94 /  10  30  30  50
N Ft Lauderdale  80  96  79  95 /  10  30  20  50
Pembroke Pines   80  99  79  97 /  10  20  20  40
West Palm Beach  77  96  76  95 /  10  40  30  50
Boca Raton       79  98  78  96 /  10  30  30  50
Naples           79  91  78  90 /  10  30  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM....RAG
AVIATION...Harrigan