Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 231136
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
636 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.AVIATION...

THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT LULL IN THE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND COASTAL ZONE IN THE
15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE ARE EXPECTED AROUND 14-15Z. WHILE THERE IS SOME
GENERAL CLEARING...LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS PERIODICALLY WITH OCCASIONAL
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY BUT MAINLY EXPECTED IN THE LAKE REGION WITH
IMPACTS ON THE TERMINALS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY)...

DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
KEEP THE TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE EACH DAY THROUGH
THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. THE EARLY MORNING IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE REGION SHOWED A WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTHWARD OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH MOIST SOUTHEAST
FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES NORTHWARD
AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLIGHTLY RELAX
AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TOWARD THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A
BLEND OF THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON
HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST TO
THE MID 80S FARTHER INLAND. RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS COULD BE REALIZED
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE ONLY PROJECTED TO REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE EAST COAST/METRO LOCATIONS. IN
ADDITION TO THE WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS, MODEL CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS AND SREF PROBABILITIES SUPPORT A LOW STRATUS DECK
ALONG WITH REDUCED VSBYS ACROSS THE NRN INTERIOR AND GULF AREAS LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT, PATCHY FOG WILL REMAIN
IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE THROUGH THIS TIME.

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND INDICATES LARGE SCALE UPPER HEIGHT
FALLS ACROSS THE REGION AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DIVE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARD/INTO THE
LOCAL AREA. THE ECMWF IS THE MORE BULLISH SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE
GFS/NAM AND INDICATES A SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO BY
TUESDAY EVENING (STRONGER WIND FIELD ACROSS THE GULF AREAS).
DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES, LARGE SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
WILL TRANSLATE TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA ONCE
AGAIN TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

/85

LONG TERM (THANKSGIVING-WEEKEND)

RISING UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BE EXPECTED AS THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED
UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO PLEASANT
CONDITIONS WITH EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
LOW/MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AREAS TO THE MID TO UPPER
50S ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA METRO/COASTAL AREAS. HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD THURSDAY UNDER CLEAR SKIES. THE DRY AND PLEASANT
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A GRADUAL
MOISTENING AND WARMING TREND WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST OFF OF THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC WATERS.

/85

AVIATION...

EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY MAINLY IN THE
VICINITY OF TERMINAL KPBI EARLY THIS MORNING...CHANCES OF PASSING
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL ATLANTIC COAST TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE ATLANTIC COAST TERMINALS WILL LIKELY HAVE PERIODS OF
MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT NEAR IFR TO SUB-IFR CEILINGS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR
TERMINAL KAPF AROUND 08Z-12Z TIME FRAME AND IS INDICATED WITH A
TEMPO GROUP FROM 09Z-12Z...WILL MONITOR CEILINGS AND AMEND AS NEEDED.

/60

MARINE...

FRESH SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT
WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS LATER
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS WILL BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY,
WHICH WILL LIKELY REQUIRE AN ADVISORY FOR THE THE GULF AND ATLANTIC
WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  82  74  85  72 /  40  20  20  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  76  85  74 /  30  20  20  40
MIAMI            83  75  85  74 /  20  20  20  40
NAPLES           82  72  81  70 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ173.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ630-651-
     671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ650-
     670.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...85/AG
LONG TERM....85/AG
AVIATION...60/BD



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