Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 280032 AAC
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
832 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT WHICH IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS TO MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARDS
SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN TO
SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT. THEREFORE...THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF POPS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

THE 500 MB TEMPS THIS EVENING WAS AROUND -3C FROM THE MIA SOUNDING
AND THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE ONLY SHOWING IT TO COOL TO -4C BY
MORNING. THEREFORE...THE THUNDER WORDING WILL BE REMOVE FROM THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TONIGHT.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 817 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AS MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH INTO THE
AREA. SIMILAR TO TODAY...THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE WILL BE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG
THE GULF COAST AREAS (SITE APF) TOMORROW. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS
FOCUSING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AREAS INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
DIMINISHING. 85
&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
QUIET DAY CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THE ONLY RADAR RETURNS
THIS AFTERNOON WERE FROM A LARGE WILDFIRE ACROSS CAPE SABLE. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

CRISTOBAL WILL ACCELERATE OFF TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY IN BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE OUTERBANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. A WEEK SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE
TAIL END OF CRISTOBAL REMAINED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS...BUT THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT AS CRISTOBAL MOVES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. IN ADDITION...THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
CRISTOBAL WILL BUILD WEST AND NORTHWEST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. A FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE INCREASES.

PWATS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE BACK TO AROUND NORMAL ON
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...DRY AND WARM AIR WILL REMAIN ALOFT...WHICH WILL KEEP
STORMS IN CHECK. THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AS THE BOUNDARY
LIFTS NORTHWARD. SO BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS
STORMS MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.

TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION IS THEN FORECAST FOR FRIDAY...WITH
STREAMER SHOWERS AND EAST COAST SEA BREEZE CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AND INTERIOR AND GULF COAST SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS.

MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DRIER AND SAHARAN DUST POSSIBLY MOVING INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING IN
DRIER AIR TO THE REGION. SO OVERALL RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY WILL BE
LOW...ESPECIALLY EAST.

DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
NEAR NORMAL TO NORMAL MOISTURE. A TUTT LOW MAY MOVE TOWARDS THE
REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WHICH COULD BRING COLDER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND SOME STRONGER STORMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND LOWS
WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S TO LOW
80S.

AVIATION...
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS A SCT CU FIELD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
DRY AIR MASS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. GUIDANCE KEEPS DELAYING THE ONSET OF A GULF BREEZE AT
KAPF. NOT VERY CONFIDENT THAT IT WILL DEVELOP AT ALL BUT STILL
PREVAILED A WEAK GULF BREEZE AFTER 21Z. MODELS STILL DEPICT DEEP
MOISTURE RETURN TOMORROW AND BETTER COVERAGE OF SHRAS/TSRAS.
HOWEVER...MOST OF SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR. PLACED VCSH IN
AT KMIA...KTMB...AND KAPF FOR NOW.

MARINE...
SMALL NORTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WATERS OFF OF
PALM BEACH AND BROWARD COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS
AROUND 7 FEET THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY WILL
SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FEET TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF
THE LOCAL WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  79  92  80  91 /  10  40  20  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  81  92  81  91 /  20  40  20  40
MIAMI            80  91  80  91 /  20  40  20  40
NAPLES           78  91  78  92 /  10  50  20  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....84/AK



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