Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 290811

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
411 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Synopsis: High pressure will gradually nose westward into South
Florida over the weekend, but warm, humid conditions will prevail
with daily chances for thunderstorms. Uncertainty in the forecast
exists for early next week and weather will depend on the
evolution of Tropical Storm Matthew, currently in the eastern

Short Term (Today through Saturday): Pesky trough axis associated
with broad, closed, deep-layer low pressure over the Ohio Valley
will remain over the eastern Gulf of Mexico over the next couple
of days. This will keep southwesterly flow over the Florida
Peninsula, with moisture streaming across the area. Lift will be
enhanced by the trough and mid-level temperatures will be
supportive of thunderstorms. Northern interior sections will have
the greatest coverage of convection, but activity could affect all
areas of the region, mainly during the afternoon hours.

For Saturday, the low and affiliated trough will weaken and lift
northward as high pressure centered over the western Atlantic
expands toward the Florida Peninsula. Although overall rain
chances will not diminish much from this feature, easterly flow
will establish and focus activity away from the east coast on

Long Term (Saturday night through Wednesday Night):
For the remainder of the weekend and into Monday, easterly flow
will remain established and increase as pressure gradient
gradually tightens. Rain chances will remain, mainly diurnal in
nature of land areas.

National Hurricane Center is tracking Tropical Storm Matthew, east
and northeast of Curacao as of 2 AM this morning in the eastern
Carribean Sea. Matthew is forecast track westward into Saturday
and become a hurricane. Matthew is then likely to turn northward
and reside somewhere in the vicinity of Haiti, eastern Cuba, or
the southeastern Bahamas Monday or Tuesday. As with any tropical
system, there is a great deal of uncertainty with Tropical Storm
Matthew. It is too early to tell if this system will have any
impact on South Florida, but it is important to remain informed of
its progress with the latest information from the National
Hurricane Center and National Weather Service Miami.

This means the early to mid-next week forecast is highly uncertain
and is likely to change more than typical over the next several
days. For now, the forecast reflects Matthew passing well to the
east of South Florida. Thus, rain chances are relatively low and
winds turn to the north by the middle of next week. Again,
confidence is quite low in this forecast and Tropical Storm
Matthew will continue to be monitored closely.


Winds and seas are expected to remain below 20 knots and 4 feet,
respectively, through Sunday. The exception will be around
thunderstorms, which will create brief periods of gusty winds and
rough seas.

Depending on the future track of now Tropical Storm Matthew, winds
and seas may become hazardous early next week, particularly in
Atlantic waters. Refer to the National Hurricane Center as well as
National Weather Service Miami to stay informed on the evolution
of this system.


Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all South
Florida terminals during the early morning hours. However,
terminal KAPF could experience occasional passing showers early
this morning, with an isolated thunderstorm possible with very
brief periods of MVFR conditions possible. By mid-morning light
southwesterly winds are forecast across the region, with the Gulf
and Atlantic coast sea breezes expected to form around 16-18z. All
terminals assigned VCTS at 17-18z.



West Palm Beach  89  74  89  76 /  50  30  40  40
Fort Lauderdale  89  77  89  78 /  40  20  40  40
Miami            90  77  90  77 /  40  20  50  30
Naples           89  75  88  75 /  30  30  40  30




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