Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 290103 AAB
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
903 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
HOURS AS THE HEATING OF THE DAY IS LOST. THERE COULD STILL BE A
FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA TONIGHT WHICH COULD WORK INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS.
THEREFORE...POPS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST
COAST METRO AREAS THIS EVENING WITH ANYTIME ISOLATED POPS OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. REST
OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE
PLANNED.

&&
.UPDATED...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 801 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

AVIATION...
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...BUT A FEW SHOWERS STILL JUST
WEST OF MIAMI-DADE/BROWARD TERMINALS SO WILL LEAVE VCSH THROUGH
3Z. POPS FAIRLY LOW TOMORROW...BUT KEPT VCSH IN PLACE STARTING AT
15Z. SE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-15
KT SATURDAY.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
STATIONARY FRONT OVER NORTH FLORIDA SHOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH
SATURDAY...AS NHC IS FORECASTING TROPICAL STORM ERIKA TO MOVE TO
THE WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH THE VICINITY OF CUBA. DRY AIR AHEAD OF
ERIKA SHOULD BE MOVING INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR POPS OVER THE AREA TO BE LOWER THAN THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED POPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS.

AT THIS TIME...NHC IS FORECASTING ERIKA TO MOVE NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE FLORIDA STRAITS LATE THIS WEEKEND AND NORTHWARD UP THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OF FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PUT SOUTH FLORIDA ON THE
WET SIDE OF ERIKA AND COULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

NHC IS FORECASTING THE SYSTEM TO BE NORTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE STEERING FLOW
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TO BE SOUTHERLY. THEREFORE...THE DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK KEEPING THE POPS IN THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
RANGE.

MARINE...
WINDS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL BE EASTERLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS.
THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS BELOW 6 FEET IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE WINDS AND SEAS FOR SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND PATH
OF ERIKA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  79  91  80  87 /  20  30  50  80
FORT LAUDERDALE  81  90  82  87 /  20  20  50  80
MIAMI            80  92  81  88 /  20  30  50  80
NAPLES           77  93  78  88 /  20  40  30  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB



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