Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 291358 AAB
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
958 AM EDT Mon May 29 2017

.UPDATE...
As of 955 AM EDT...A hot Memorial Day is underway across South
Florida, with temperatures warming into the 80s early this
morning. High temperatures are not expected to be quite as warm as
yesterday, but will still be near records for the date and
warming into the lower 90s east and Gulf coast, with mid to upper
90s in the interior. For more on the potential high temperature
records, see the Climate section below.

A light northwesterly land breeze early this morning has allowed
smoke from an ongoing wildfire in western Broward county to
occasionally drift into portions of metro and coastal Broward and
Miami-Dade county, reducing visibility at times below 3 miles.
Motorists driving early this Memorial Day holiday should turn on
low beam headlights and keep a safe distance between vehicles if
encountering any smoke while traveling. This smoke should quickly
disperse later this morning as the Atlantic sea breeze gets going.

For this afternoon, isolated to widely scattered showers along
with a few thunderstorms will be possible mainly focused in the
interior. Cannot rule out a storm or two in western suburbs of
Broward and Miami-Dade metro areas south to Homestead as well. The
12z MFL sounding showed decent amounts of dry air in the mid-
levels despite slow moistening in the lower levels, which should
limit overall convective coverage as most mesoscale models
suggest. The HRRR continues to be aggressive in the amount of
convection this afternoon, and am considering it an outlier at
this point given the mid-level dry air and only average mid-level
temperatures. Main threat with thunderstorms today is frequent
lightning along with brief heavy rainfall.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 732 AM EDT Mon May 29 2017/

AVIATION...
VFR flying conditions will prevail through the TAF period ending
12z Tuesday. Dry weather is generally expected at the TAF sites
today, outside of an isolated shower or storm at the inland east
coast sites of KTMB and KFXE, although the bulk of any activity
should remain across the interior. Have only gone with VCSH at
this issuance, and if trends for possible storms continue, may
indicate VCTS with the 15z amendments. Winds will be light and
variable trending to northwesterly at around 5 knots this morning,
before sea breezes begin around 17z going east/southeasterly at
the east coast sites and westerly at KAPF around 10 knots. Winds
will become light and variable again after 00z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 405 AM EDT Mon May 29 2017/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)

Deep Layer ridging that has dominated South Florida and brought
some heat records (see Climate section below) will continue for
another day or two. The main change today should be a slightly
earlier sea-breeze intrusions, which should keep temperatures down
slightly from yesterday. Still though, maxima in the short term
will exceed 90 degrees most areas. Minima will be in the 70s. A
few thunderstorms are possible this and Tuesday afternoons,
mainly over the interior where the Atlantic and Gulf sea breezes
collide. There will be a slight better chance of activity
Wednesday afternoon.

LONG TERM (Wednesday night through Sunday night)
Upper ridge breaks down mid to late week as zonal flow aloft will
prevail. Surface high will also weaken and slide to the east,
putting South Florida into a moist, southerly flow pattern. PWATs
will become above normal for this time of year, and most guidance
indicates rain chances will rise significantly accordingly. With
the main forcing being due to see-breeze collisions and subsequent
outflow boundaries/interactions, thunderstorm chances will be
highest over the interior. At the moment, have high chance/likely
POPs over the interior, with chance POPs even along the coasts.
Temperatures during the long term will be more regulated by
precipitation, so maxima will return to near normal near 90F,
with minima remaining above normal in the 70s.

MARINE...
Southeasterly flow will gradually become more dominant early this
week, though speeds should generally be 15 KT or less. Seas will
remain 4 feet or less through the week. Thunderstorm chances will
increase for the latter half of the week.

FIRE WEATHER...
Upgraded Fire Weather Watch to Red Flag Warning for Glades County due
to forecast 4 to 5 hours of relative humidity below 40 percent
this afternoon. For Hendry County, the 4 hour threshold is
unlikely to be reached, and winds appear to be on track to remain
below 10 mph. Thus, have dropped the watch, but conditions will
continue to be closely monitored. On Tuesday, moisture will
increase some, so at this point it looks like relative humidity
thresholds will not be met after today through the remainder of
the week.

CLIMATE...
Sunday, Miami set its all time record high temperature for May with
98 degrees. Although temperatures are expected to not reach as
high today or for the rest of the week, they are expected to be
near records. Here is information on records for today.

Monday record highs:

Naples          96 2011   Forecast high:  92
West Palm Beach 96 2000   Forecast high:  92
Fort Lauderdale 95 1915   Forecast high:  92
Miami           94 1951   Forecast high:  92

Tuesday record high minima:

Naples          79 2012   Forecast low: 75
West Palm Beach 79 1982   Forecast low: 77
Fort Lauderdale 80 2008   Forecast low: 80
Miami           79 2011   Forecast low: 79

Tuesday record highs:

Naples          95 2011   Forecast high: 92
West Palm Beach 96 1945   Forecast high: 91
Fort Lauderdale 95 1924   Forecast high: 89
Miami           93 2012   Forecast high: 91
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  93  77  91  78 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  93  80  89  80 /  10   0  10   0
Miami            93  79  91  79 /  20   0  10   0
Naples           93  75  92  75 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ063.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

UPDATE...92/IRL
DISCUSSION...23/SK
MARINE...23/SK
AVIATION...92/IRL
FIRE WEATHER...23/SK
CLIMATE...23/SK



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