Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 221050
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
550 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA, WILL MOVE INTO GEORGIA
AND SOUTH CAROLINA AS A WARM FRONT, TODAY AND TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH
SHOWERS FROM LAST NIGHT`S WEAK DISTURBANCE/ISENTROPIC LIFT HAVE
ENDED, CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW MORE THIS MORNING ACROSS GLADES AND
HENDRY COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH SE FLOW WILL DOMINATE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, PWATS WILL ACTUALLY DROP A BIT OR REMAIN STEADY TODAY AND
TUESDAY, AS A PORTION OF THE MIDLEVEL DRY AIR ON WATER VAPOR,
CREATED BY THE STRONG CLOSED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN, GETS
PULLED NORTH. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN, BUT THIS SLICE OF RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR MAY PRECLUDE MUCH IF ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE TROPICAL AIRMASS AT THE ONSET OF WINTER, WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70F.

WITH THE COLD FRONT AGAIN DELAYED BY A FEW HOURS, ESPECIALLY PER
THE ECMWF, MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS DEVELOPMENT MAY
FALL LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CITIES OF THE
EAST COAST, ALTHOUGH THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER AND
DELIVERS MUCH MORE RAIN WITH PWATS ABOVE 2", WHICH IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN MOST OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH A SOMEWHAT EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS
UNIMPRESSIVE, SPC MENTIONS A MARGINAL RISK FOR THE ENTIRE
PENINSULA, AND THERE COULD BE A STRONGER STORM OR TWO IF INSTABILITY
INCREASES, THUS THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR THUNDER. CLOUDS MAY
PERSIST FOR MUCH OF CHRISTMAS DAY BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG THE EAST
COAST, WHICH MAY ACTUALLY KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER THAN WHAT THE
BLENDS ARE SUGGESTING FOR MAX T.

ECMWF/GFS ARE RATHER SIMILAR FOR NEXT WEEKEND, WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD/WESTERN ATLANTIC,
WITH ANOTHER STRONG CLOSED UPPER RIDGE NEAR CUBA. SURFACE
EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD DOMINATE WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE EAST COAST. AT THE END OF THE FORECAST, THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
ARE ABOUT 24 HRS APART WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A DWINDLING COLD FRONT
ACROSS FLORIDA, MONDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING, RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.MARINE...

SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH WINDS VEERING TO
THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE GULF
WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THEN INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY. NORTHWEST AND NORTH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BY THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD, ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE
OFFSHORE GULF WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURN TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  82  71  81  73 /  10  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  81  72  81  74 /  10  10  10  10
MIAMI            81  71  82  73 /  10  10  10  10
NAPLES           79  67  80  70 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM


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