Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 051728 AAC
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
128 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FORM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 15 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING TO 5 KNOTS TONIGHT. THE WEATHER
WILL STAY DRY AND THE VIS AND CEILING WILL REMAIN IN THE DRY
CONDITION...AS THE NEXT WORK MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT
WILL BE A DRY FRONT.


&&
.AVIATION..54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016/

UPDATE...
THE FIRST COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING
WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE
SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD TODAY DOWN THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING. THIS
FRONT SHOULD BE A DRY FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA WITH
ONLY CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH. THEREFORE...THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED
FROM THE FORECAST FOR TODAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN RUNNING IN THE MID 50S OVER
THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION TO AROUND 60 OVER THE SOUTHEAST METRO
AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THESE DEW POINTS ARE ABOUT 2 TO 5 DEGREES
BELOW THE FORECAST DEW POINTS. WITH THE NORTHWEST WINDS BRINGING
IN DRIER AIR TODAY INTO SOUTH FLORIDA...THE DEW POINTS WILL BE
LOWER ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TO
FALL DOWN INTO THE LOWER 30S OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS GETTING DOWN TO AROUND
30 PERCENT. HOWEVER...THE 20 FOOT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH
AND THE ERC`S SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 37 THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA. THEREFORE...NO FIRE HAZARDS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DECREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA
WATERS WILL ALSO DECREASE FROM 15 TO 20 KNOTS THIS MORNING TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE ATLANTIC SEAS
TO FALL FROM 5 TO 7 FEET THIS MORNING TO 4 TO 6 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON. THE GULF WATER SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET TODAY.
THEREFORE...THE SCA WILL BE ALLOW TO EXPIRED AROUND NOON TODAY
WITH AN SCEC FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS. REST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS WILL BE IN A SCEC FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

&&
UPDATE...54/BNB


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 748 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016/

AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TODAY WITH SPEEDS OF 15 KTS GUSTS UP
TO 25 KNOTS...EXCEPT AROUND 20 KTS GUST TO 30 KNOTS FOR KAPF TAF
SITE. THE WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS FROM THE WEST
THIS EVENING BEFORE SWINGING BACK TO A NORTHWEST DIRECTION LATE
TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT PASSAGE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE
NORTH. THIS FRONT WILL BE A DRY FRONT AS IT COMES THROUGH THE
AREA. THEREFORE...THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY OVER ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA TAF SITES ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN THE CEILING AND
VIS.

&&
AVIATION...54/BNB


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016/

SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT THAT LED TO A RAINY WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
BUILDING OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW QUIET WEATHER TO PREVAIL.

DISCUSSION...
OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING SHOW NORTHWEST WINDS DEEPENING WITH TIME
BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. WITH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN ALOFT AND GOOD SURFACE HEATING TODAY EXPECT SOME
SCATTERED CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS TO DEVELOP AND DEEP MIXING TO
BRING DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS, PARTICULARLY NORTHWEST SECTIONS.

A REINFORCING FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. A FEW VERY
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY FORM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA, BUT MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES ARE TOO LOW AT ANY GIVEN
LOCATION TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND A
DRY AIR MASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL WELL INTO THE 50S
INTERIOR SECTIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS MIGHT BE THE LAST TIME WE SEE
READINGS THAT COOL FOR AWHILE.

THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD OVER
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND BRINGING VERY PLEASANT WEATHER AND LIGHT
WINDS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD A BIT, WHICH WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR GRADUAL RETURN
OF MOISTURE ON EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AND A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES.

MARINE...
A MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT HAS LED TO
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. SEAS ARE LIKELY NEAR 7 FEET ATLANTIC WATERS AND
THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WAS EXTENDED UNTIL NOON. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
RELAX JUST ENOUGH TO BRING SEAS DOWN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE
CAUTION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS
OF 4 TO 6 FEET WILL CONTINUE. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL.

FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT AND GOOD SURFACE HEATING UNDER SUNNY
SKIES TODAY SHOULD PROMOTE DEEP MIXING, BRINGING SUSTAINED WINDS
UP TO NEAR 15 MPH AND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON,
PARTICULARLY INTERIOR AREAS. VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT DISPERSION
WILL PREVAIL TODAY, HOWEVER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
STAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S AND ERC VALUES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S, SO RED FLAG CONDITIONS DO NOT
APPEAR LIKELY TO BE APPROACHED TODAY.

CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT ON REACHING RED FLAG CONDITIONS
EITHER FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL RELAX AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL BE BORDERLINE, GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S. HOWEVER
SOME DRYING OF FUELS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND PARTS OF INTERIOR SOUTH
FLORIDA DID NOT PICK UP A LOT OF RAIN OVER THE LAST WEEK. FOR NOW
WILL KEEP THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN PLACE GIVEN THE LINGERING
UNCERTAINTY AND ALLOW FOR FURTHER COORDINATION LATER TODAY WITH
PARTNER AGENCIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  58  81  56 /  10  10   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  65  83  63 /  10  10   0   0
MIAMI            84  63  83  62 /  10  10   0   0
NAPLES           81  63  79  62 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....22/KS
AVIATION...54/BNB



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