Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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586
FXUS62 KMFL 270729
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
329 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Short term (Today through Tuesday)...models keep the remnants of
a cold front lingering across the area, while weak sfc high
pressure remains centered far NE of Florida. This synoptic
scenario will keep generally light easterly to southeasterly winds
in place through Tuesday. The east coast sea breeze will again
dominate this afternoon and becoming the focal point for
convection to develop, while pushing most of the shower and
thunderstorm activity into the interior and west coast areas. But
a few thunderstorms are still expected over the Atlantic side and
Miami major metro areas both days. Some showers will linger into
the late evening hours, while overnight lows remain in the mid to
upper 70s.

Long term (Wednesday-Sunday)...model solutions bring another
weakening front into northern Florida, quickly dissipating by mid
week. Meanwhile, the aforementioned sfc high far NE of the state
intensifies. This will bring veering surface winds across South
Florida to a more southerly flow while enhancing tropical moisture
advection across the area. With this weather pattern in place,
expect showers and thunderstorms over south Florida each afternoon
and early evening, fueled by sea breeze interactions. Also,
convection activity will shift closer to the east half of South
Florida and the Atlantic coast metro areas. Thermodynamic
parameters and overall atmospheric instability should not be
favorable for significant strong to severe weather activity to
develop, but a stray strong cell or two can not be ruled out.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally light to moderate easterly/southeasterly winds prevail
today, gradually veering to a more southerly flow by Wednesday and
remaining in place through the end of the work week. Expect wave
heights of 2 feet or less, except for possible periods of locally
higher winds and seas with any thunderstorm that may form.

&&

.AVIATION...
An active weather day is in store for South Florida weather wise.
Fortunately, most of the convective activity should occur west of
the east coast TAF sites. They will mainly some shower activity
around the area, although there is a very small chance there will
also be a few thunderstorms in the area. However, the uncertainty
is too great to place any mention in any of the East coast TAF
sites at this time. As for KAPF, the area will have a better
chance of seeing some afternoon thunderstorms. Some of them may be
on the strong side, with gusty wind and lightning as the main
threats. Have a prob30 for most of the afternoon for this TAF
site. Otherwise, VFR conditions, with brief IFR under heavy
showers possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  90  76  91  76 /  40  30  30  40
Fort Lauderdale  89  77  90  78 /  40  20  40  30
Miami            90  77  90  77 /  40  30  50  30
Naples           89  74  89  76 /  40  30  40  30

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...13/SI
REST...17/AR



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