Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 191735

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
135 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Latest radar imagery shows some isolated convection starting
to initiate over the interior near the Lake region and portion
of the northeastern coast. Expect a few isolated showers to
be near or move over the terminal as the afternoon progresses.
Highest chance remains north from FLL into PBI at this time. Can
not ruled out some SHRA near MIA or TMB but possibly later in the
afternoon. Winds will remain light no more than 10 knots. Most of
the convection will move inland into the late afternoon west of
most of the east and west coast terminals. VFR with light winds
prevail overnight into Wednesday.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1050 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017/

Weak boundary along the region will generate a few showers and
thunderstorms into the afternoon hours. Short range model
guidance suggests most of the convection affecting Palm Beach
and Broward County and adjacent coastal waters. Light winds
will begin to veer east this afternoon with plenty of sunshine.
High temps will range between the mid to upper 80s and near 90s.
Due to high surf associated with Jose, high rip currents risk
continues through tomorrow evening.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 748 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017/

Weak boundary over the area will continue to generate a few SHRA
around Lake and north of KPBI. Can not ruled out a brief shra over
FLL and FXE early this morning through daybreak. Light/VRB winds
this morning with seabreezes developing 15Z-18Z, generating
additional SHRA and a few TSRA in the interior.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 412 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017/


TODAY AND TONIGHT: Weather across South Florida will continue to
influenced by the distant Hurricane Jose as it moves past the Mid
Atlantic. The hurricanes continues to leave a trailing trough
across the area with light north-northeasterly flow.

The dry airmass that has been in place will begin moderating
today, allowing for more scattered showers and a few storms. The
best chances will generally be along the boundary across the Lake
Okeechobee region early, then along both seabreezes into the late
afternoon and early evening. Most showers and storms diminish
after sunset, with a few lingering overnight near the trough over
the local Atlantic and east coast.

With higher humidities, we will return to more typical South Florida
mugginess with afternoon highs in the upper 80s and low 90s.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: Weak ridging develops to our north for the
latter half of the week as Hurricane Jose moves further away. Light
east-northeasterly flow will be in place, continuing to moderate the
dry airmass over the region, though not to the extent that is
typical this time of year in South Florida.

The east coast seabreeze will dominant, moving well inland each
afternoon with the Gulf breeze along the coast if it does develop.
This should lead to scattered to locally numerous storms each
afternoon, highest where the seabreezes collide over the western

We are now approaching the highest tides of the year, the King
Tides. While predicted tides in October and November may be
higher, as we approach the new moon the next few days water levels
may run high enough for minor flooding in the most vulnerable
locations. Currently even with water levels running a half foot
above normal, don`t significant enough impacts to warrant any
headlines. This may change as we see a little more ENE flow late
this week.

THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK: Hurricane Maria is forecast to
remain a major hurricane as it moves across Puerto Rico and
Hispaniola and into or near the Bahamas late week. The forecast
remains for Maria to turn northwards over or just east of the
Bahamas towards the weakness in the Atlantic ridge left by Hurricane
Jose late this week.

Exactly how far east Maria passes will determine our exact weather
for the weekend. A center track more on the western side of the
forecast cone will put the region more firmly in the subsident
airmass around the storm with rain chances likely isolated at best.
Regardless it looks like a drier weekend, though how dry will be in

While the track of Maria is expected to remain to our east, continue
to keep a close eye on the forecast over the next several days. In
the meantime, it is always a good idea to review hurricane plans and
to restock any items used during Hurricane Irma as we continue to
remain in the middle of hurricane season.

MARINE...Long period northeasterly swell from distant Hurricane
Jose will continue to be the main concern in the local waters.
Cautionary conditions will continue potentially into Thursday in the
Atlantic waters off Palm Beach with seas 4-6ft. Elsewhere in the
Atlantic, seas will be 3-5 ft. Gulf waters will be 2-3ft today well
offshore, then 2ft or less the remainder of the week. Winds will be
somewhat light and variable today as a weak trough remains, then
becoming east-northeast 10-15kts by Thursday.

Depending on the exact track of Maria as it is expected to pass by
to our east this weekend, we may see advisory level winds and seas
in the local Atlantic for the weekend and beyond. Cautionary
conditions will be possible in the Gulf waters.

BEACH FORECAST...Long period northeasterly swell from the
distant Hurricane Jose will continue to filter through the local
Atlantic waters. A high risk of rip currents will continue for all
the Atlantic beaches today, and likely remain moderate to high into
late week.

For this weekend and beyond, all eyes will be on Hurricane Maria to
see what potential winds and seas to storm brings as it is expected
to pass to our east.

AVIATION...Weak boundary remains across area, generating a few
SHRA around Lake and north of KPBI. Coverage/location too low to
mention at this time, but can`t rule out brief -SHRA at any site
with tempo MVFR cigs through daybreak. Light/VRB winds this morn
with seabreezes developing 15Z-18Z, generating additional SHRA and a
few TSRA.

West Palm Beach  76  89  76  89 /  40  30  20  30
Fort Lauderdale  78  90  77  90 /  30  20  20  30
Miami            78  91  77  91 /  20  20  20  30
Naples           76  91  76  91 /  20  30  20  40


FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ168-172-


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