Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 272341 AAA
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
741 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017

.AVIATION...
The winds will be light and variable tonight over all of the east
coast TAF sites before increasing to around 10 knots from the
southeast on Friday. The only exception is that the winds will be
southwest at KAPF taf site on Friday. The weather should also
remain dry tonight into Friday morning over most of the taf sites,
before VCTS conditions Friday afternoon. The only exception to
this is for KAPF TAF site where VCSH will be between 00Z and 02Z
tonight, and again after 15Z on Friday. The ceiling and vis will
remain in VFR conditions for all of the the TAF sites tonight
into Friday morning, before MVFR conditions affect the east coast
TAF sites Friday afternoon with passage of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.UPDATE...
Convection continues to focus along remnant boundaries over the
interior of South Florida, mainly south of Lake Okeechobee and
north of the Alligator Alley/Interstate 75 corridor. Went ahead
and added mention of thunder to the forecast in these areas for
the next couple of hours. Activity is expected to diminish by
midnight. Updated zones will be sent shortly to account for these
changes. Overall, the forecast appears to be on track for the
evening. Have a wonderful Thursday evening!

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 400 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017/

DISCUSSION...
While this past week may have felt like the extreme heart of
summer across much of South Florida, a pattern change is expected
over the coming days that will return temperatures and humidity to
levels closer to what is more typical of summer in South Florida.
A ridge of Atlantic high pressure continues to extend across
South Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. This high pressure has
produced the easterly flow which has reinforced the hot and humid
conditions experienced over the last several days. While we may
not reach Heat Advisory criteria, it will still be important for
those exposed to the hot, humid temperatures to stay hydrated and
take cooling breaks.

As the week draws to a close, a low pressure area over eastern
Canada pushes an associated frontal boundary towards the eastern
seaboard of the United States on Friday. This will begin to shift
our synoptic flow from the east to a south-southwesterly direction
by Saturday. This change in flow will lead to increasing rain
chances along the east coast metro areas. The frontal boundary
will push into the peninsula of Florida by Monday and linger
across the region through much of the week. While the additional
cloud cover associated with the front should produce some
relatively cooler daytime temperatures, the additional rain
chances will need to be monitored to see if a heavy rain threat
emerges in the forecast trend late in the weekend into next week.

MARINE...
Wind will shift from southeasterly to the south and finally to the
south-southwest through the weekend. A frontal boundary will
approach the region early next week with increasing rain and
thunderstorm chances.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  79  95  78  95 /  20  40  30  40
Fort Lauderdale  80  94  80  93 /  20  40  20  30
Miami            80  94  79  94 /  20  50  20  30
Naples           78  92  79  91 /  20  30  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.

&&

UPDATE...02/RAG
DISCUSSION...02/RAG
MARINE...02/RAG
AVIATION...54/BNB



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