Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 271916
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
316 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...SCATTERED STORMS INTO THIS EVENING, THEN COOLER AND DRY
WEEKEND...

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND IS ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN FLORIDA EARLY
THIS EVENING, CLEARING THE PENINSULA AROUND MIDNIGHT THEN WELL
SOUTH/EAST OF THE STRAITS SATURDAY MORNING.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES ALONG THE EAST COAST AS STRONG SW WINDS HAVE
MIXED DOWN SOME DRY AIR. ALONG THE GULF COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
AREAS, CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
CONVECTION HAS BEEN WIDELY SCATTERED BUT ON THE STRONG SIDE IN THE
PALM BEACH COUNTY AND LAKE AREAS, WITH THE MAIN PRE-FRONTAL AREA
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING ONSHORE THE
NAPLES/FORT MYERS AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE EAST
COAST WILL REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH ABOUT 5 PM WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ALONG THE
GULF COAST WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OR EVEN
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE GRADUALLY WEAKENS
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. STILL CAN`T RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO,
AND THE MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE
THROUGH SUNSET.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND)...
LINGERING LOW RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT
AS THE LAST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE COOL-DOWN THIS WEEKEND, WITH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
LOWEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOST AREAS IN
THE 50S (RANGING FROM UPPER 40S WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO RIGHT
AROUND 60 AT THE SOUTHEAST BEACHES). DEFINITELY A BIG CHANGE FROM
THE PAST FEW WEEKS. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S
AREA-WIDE WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THEN DECREASE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS PICK BACK UP TO
MODERATE LEVELS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES. THIS WILL MEAN MILD AND
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
MODERATING TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE END OF MARCH/BEGINNING OF
APRIL. NEXT RAIN CHANCE LOOKS TO BE ON THURSDAY AS BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF INDICATE A WELL-DEFINED MID/LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
EAST FROM THE GULF ACROSS FLORIDA AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHEAST AND DRAWS INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW WE
HAVE ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND PLENTY
OF TIME TO MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE IF THIS NEEDS TO BE INCREASED
AND/OR TO ADD THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION...
STORMS EXPECTED TO SPREAD IN COVERAGE AT THE NORTHERN MOST
TERMINALS NEAREST THE FRONT, PBI/APF, AND PER CCFP A TEMPO TSRA
GROUP WAS INCLUDED. APF CURRENTLY WITH MVFR CIGS WITH SHOWERS/LOW
CLOUDS OFF THE GULF IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. VCTS WAS INCLUDED AT
ALL OTHER SITES WITH SCATTERED STORMS LATER THIS PM AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTH. CAN`T RULE OUT TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS. ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS WILL BE LEFT THIS EVENING, MUCH OF
THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER BY 2Z, BUT SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE AT APF JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVING
QUICKLY TONIGHT. SOME 30KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE STORMS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONE. BENIGN PATTERN RETURNS SATURDAY WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. 21/KM

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTY SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE NW LATE THIS
EVENING AND REMAIN STRONG, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
ALL WATERS EXCEPT BISCAYNE BAY. CONDITIONS REMAINING AT ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY, THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVING SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BRIEF INCREASE IN N/NE WINDS ON
SUNDAY COULD BRING SEAS BACK UP TO NEAR CAUTION LEVELS, ESPECIALLY
ATLANTIC/GULF STREAM. /MOLLEDA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE VERY DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THIS EVENING`S FRONT. LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 30 PERCENT AREA-WIDE,
POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE 25 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE INTERIOR ON
SUNDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO FIRE CONTROL ISSUES, ESPECIALLY IF
WINDS END UP BEING A LITTLE STRONGER THAN FORECAST. SLIGHT
MODERATION IN HUMIDITY LEVELS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT STILL
REMAINING AROUND 35 TO 40 PERCENT. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  59  72  55  74 /  30   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  64  74  59  75 /  30   0   0   0
MIAMI            64  76  60  77 /  30   0   0   0
NAPLES           63  75  55  77 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ610.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...59/MOLLEDA
SHORT TERM...59/MOLLEDA
LONG TERM....59/MOLLEDA


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