Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 260730

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
330 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Latest water vapor imagery shows high pressure over the Florida
region this morning with broad trough gradually digging south over
the central portion of the CONUS. Short range models show trough
deepening southward today weakening high pressure across South FL
and pushing associated cold front southeast into the FL panhandle.
As high pressure weakens, southeast flow remains moderate today
remaining around 10 to 15 mph. This in combination with abundant
moisture contntent ahead of the front and sea breeze collision will
favor for showers and thunderstorm activity this afternoon. The
leading edge of the front should not reach the area, but its
influence will be enough to generate enough instability and deep
layer moisture for some storms to become strong, especially during
the afternoon and early evening hours. The best chance of pops will
be in the interior in the mid afternoon, then propagate westward
with outflow boundaries that form from the convection. Temperatures
will remain near normals with afternoon highs in the mid 80s to
lower 90s.

Deeper moisture ahead of the front, in combination with light winds
and strong sea breeze interaction will result in greater coverage of
showers and thunderstorm activity through the week. Similar weather
pattern is expected through the week with active convection during
the afternoon and evening and less coverage overnight. High temps
will be near normal ranging from the 80s to low 90s. By Saturday,
stronger subsidence and a drying trend should begin bringing back a
more typical summer pattern with sea breezes resulting in afternoon
convection favoring interior and Gulf coast areas.


Surface high pressure near Bermuda will keep an east to
southeast wind across the coastal waters through mid week.
The chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase through
the week but mainly inland. However, outflow boundaries could
enhance some convection over the waters. The flow will be mainly
be east to southeasterly, with the exception of the near shore
Gulf waters, where an afternoon southwest sea breeze may develop.


The wind will continue to be southeasterly today. However, a
weakening high is forecast to allow for greater coverage of
showers and thunderstorms today, mainly for the interior and Gulf
coast. Given this greater coverage, have introduce VCSH at the
east coast TAF sites, and kept VCTS for KAPF. There is a small
chance that some TS could affect the east coast sites as well, but
confidence is very low attm. Otherwise, VFR conditions through
the TAF period, with brief IFR possible under heavy SHRA.


West Palm Beach  91  77  91  76 /  30  10  50  30
Fort Lauderdale  90  78  91  78 /  20  10  40  40
Miami            90  79  92  78 /  30  10  50  40
Naples           90  76  90  76 /  30  20  50  20



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