Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 290554
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
154 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.AVIATION...Scattered TSRA still continue over the Gulf waters
moving slowly inland N to NW direction producing brief moderate
to rainfall. Additional development is occurring further inland.
Some of these showers are in close proximity to KAPF and could
move through the KAPF terminal in the next hour. Therefore,
included TSRA in the vicinity of KAPF. Most of this activity is
mainly concentrated towards the Southwest and along the coast not
impacting the terminals to the East. These thunderstorm could
reduce visibility briefly due to moderate to heavy downpours. For
the remainder of the night, light and variable winds prevail
with VFR conditions. Into Wednesday, similar conditions are
expected with VCSH developing after 14z for the east coast
terminals as the sea breeze develops and transitioning to VCTS
by the afternoon hours./MMT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 741 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

UPDATE...

There are lingering evening showers and thunderstorms in the
interior peninsula and the Lake region, including the Lake itself, which
is reflected in the current forecast with only minor changes
required for the evening update. Otherwise, forecast and synoptic
reasoning remains basically on track and no other changes
required.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 727 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

AVIATION...Widely scattered TSRA still ongoing across the region
this afternoon, mainly over the interior. Stronger outflow
boundary that pushed back to the east coast has kicked off ISOLD
TSRA in the vicinity of KFXE south to KMIA. Will put VCTS mention
for these sites through 28/02Z to account for additional
development. Convection generally ending across region after
28/04Z with light/variable winds overnight. Similar, summertime
pattern for tomorrow with VCSH after 14Z for east coast sites and
VCTS after 17Z for everyone. /ALM

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 424 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...A weak surface trough is across western Florida
peninsula and extends northward into the Georgia coastline. In
addition recent water vapor imagery and guidance indicate an
elongated upper level trough extending across the Bahamas to south
of Cuba.

Forecast for Wednesday through Friday...Latest global model
guidance consensus indicates a frontal boundary building into the
southeastern CONUS on Wednesday and Thursday with the
aforementioned upper level trough across the Bahamas remaining
mainly stationary through this period. With these synoptic
conditions latest guidance indicates generally southerly low level
flow across the region with moisture increasing...with forecast
soundings indicating increasing PWAT`s to over two inches possible
later on Thursday. Scattered to numerous showers and scattered
thunderstorms are forecast for Wednesday and Thursday with the
main coverage across the interior peninsula and more limited
coverage across the regional waters. Forecast soundings also
indicate light southwesterly winds in the lower levels during the
afternoon hours which could allow for more coverage of
showers/thunderstorms across the Atlantic metro areas. By Friday
the overall global model consensus indicates deep moisture across
the northwest Bahamas and approaching south Florida with the upper
level low lingering across the Bahamas with forecast regional
PWAT`s still around two inches. There will not be any dynamical
support for widespread convection...but in addition to the
peninsula convection there will be an increased chance of showers
and thunderstorms across the Atlantic waters.

Forecast for the weekend...The aforementioned plume of deeper
moisture is forecast to continue across the region on Saturday
with additional diurnally driven showers/thunderstorms with
extended model consensus indicating some relatively drier air
entering the region the Sunday.

MARINE...Regional winds forecast 10 to 15 knots or less across
the regional waters into the upcoming weekend with the Atlantic
and Gulf stream seas generally 2 feet or less and the Gulf seas
around 1 foot through this period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  91  77  91  77 /  50  50  50  40
Fort Lauderdale  88  78  90  78 /  50  40  60  30
Miami            91  78  91  78 /  50  40  60  30
Naples           89  76  90  76 /  40  30  40  20

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM....
AVIATION...



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