Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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857
FXUS62 KMFL 240829
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
429 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2017

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

.DISCUSSION...
Short Term (Today through Saturday night)...model consensus
remain fairly good in terms of depicting deep layer moisture
reaching South Florida during the next couple of days, associated
with a tropical disturbance located just to the south of the
state.

Local model guidance remains as the most aggressive solution, but
latest GFS and ECMWF have become better aligned also in terms of
having low level flow veer to the S-SW from today and through
Friday. This synoptic scenario will favor continued deep moisture
advection from the caribbean and the eastern Gulf, feeding
numerous showers and thunderstorms through at least Saturday.

A Flood Watch will be in effect starting later this morning and
through Saturday morning (see Hydrology section below for more
details). Heavy downpours will increase urban flood concerns, with
the plume of moisture expected to keep PWAT values in the 2.0-2.5
inches range. Thus, numerous showers and thunderstorms are
anticipated through the short term.

Models show a weak cold front entering northern Florida by late
Friday, which will begin pulling the tropical aforementioned
disturbance to the northeast. Even so, the migration of the
disturbance will be slow to occur, supporting generally overcast
conditions with widespread rainfall each afternoon. The persisting
cloud cover should keep afternoon highs mainly in the mid-upper
80s, but a few lower 90s are certainly possible.

Long term (Saturday night through Tuesday)...a frontal boundary
is expected to stall over the central portions of the peninsula by
Sunday and into early next week, with a tropical disturbance
slowly moving northeast from south Florida and into the Atlantic.
Abundant tropical moisture and deep southwesterly flow will keep
very favorable atmospheric conditions for numerous showers and
thunderstorms, with potential for heavy rainfall continuing
through Monday. gradual trend towards less showers and
thunderstorms should begin on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
A tropical disturbance just to the south of the state will keep
bringing scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the coastal
waters through the weekend. Southerly wind of 10 to 15 knots is
expected away from these thunderstorms, with the potential for
some higher southwesterly wind Friday and Saturday. Speeds will be
closely monitored as periods of Small Craft Advisory conditions
may develop.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PWATs in the 2.0-2.5 inches range will continue through early
next week, with a tropical disturbance remaining across the area.
Expect numerous showers and thunderstorms each day, before a
cold front moves into Central Florida and stalls. This front will
lift the disturbance northeastward, only gradually away from
South Florida over the weekend.

A Flood watch will be in effect starting late this morning and
through Saturday morning with locally heavy rainfall expected
throughout the short term period. WPC continues to suggest
potential rainfall periods of 2 to 5 inches locally.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly light showers will push onshore this morning from over the
Atlantic waters, affecting the east coast terminals. Aft
24/1500Z, south southeast winds will increase to around 10 KT and
showers/thunderstorms will increase in coverage, creating VCTS
conds. Cloud bases generally between 2000-3000 ft msl. Expecting
shower activity to continue through tonight with winds slightly
weakening aft 25/0000Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  89  75  89  74 /  80  70  80  60
Fort Lauderdale  88  76  86  75 /  90  70  80  50
Miami            89  76  86  75 /  90  70  70  60
Naples           89  78  85  77 /  80  70  80  80

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch from 11 AM EDT this morning through Saturday morning
     for FLZ066>075-168-172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&


DISCUSSION/MARINE/HYDROLOGY...17/AR
AVIATION...JT





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