Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 310743 CCA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
343 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY)...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC HAS BUILT BACK TO THE WEST
THIS MORNING AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE HAS LIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH IS
THE REMNANTS OR ERIKA IS NOW MOVING INTO NORTH FLORIDA WHILE A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS WEST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH PWAT FALLING BELOW TWO INCHES. THUS, SOUTH FLORIDA WILL
TRANSITION BACK TO THE TYPICAL LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON DIURNAL CYCLE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH THIS TREND CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE STEERING FLOW WILL ALSO VEER FROM THE SOUTH TO THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY SO THE HIGHEST POPS WILL ALSO REVERT BACK TO MOSTLY
THE INTERIOR. THEREFORE, WITH ALL OF THAT SAID THE FLOOD WATCH WILL
BE CANCELLED THIS MORNING FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THERE COULD
STILL BE SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE SOME LOCALIZED
URBAN TYPE STREET FLOODING WITH THE HEAVIER STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WHICH WOULD MAINLY AFFECT THE NAPLES AREA AND PARTS OF THE
INTERIOR.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY-SUNDAY)...
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH EASTERLY STEERING FLOW ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. THE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY STRONG BUT MOST DIURNAL
ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 15
KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET TODAY IN THE ATLANTIC AND 2 FEET OR
LESS OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH 2 FEET OR LESS ALL WATERS TONIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  80  92  80 /  40  30  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  81  91  81 /  40  20  40  30
MIAMI            92  81  91  81 /  40  20  40  20
NAPLES           91  77  92  77 /  50  20  40  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION.....13/SI


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