Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 220603
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
203 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.AVIATION...
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL HELP TO
ENHANCE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
ALL OF THE TAF SITE WILL LIKELY SEE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AT LEAST IN THE VICINITY OF THE SITE. HAVE KEPT THE VCTS WORDING
IN THE TAFS, WITH ONLY ADJUSTING THE TIMING, MAKING IT A COUPLE
HOURS LATER. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 845 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

UPDATE...
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT BEEN OCCURRING OVER MOST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED THIS
EVENING...EXCEPT OVER NORTHERN METRO MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD
COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE DURING NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS HAS THE HEATING OF THE DAY IS LOST.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS OVER METRO BROWARD
AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES THIS EVENING WHILE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA
REMAINS DRY. THE WEATHER SHOULD THEN BE DRY FOR THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

A STATIONARY FRONT WILL ALSO REMAIN OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT
ALLOWING FOR A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
THIS LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL KEEP THE TROPICAL MOISTURE IN
PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY
FOG OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS LATE. THEREFORE...PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN
ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE INTERIOR AREAS FOR THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

UPDATE...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CIRRUS CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES MOVED BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS HAS LIMITED DEVELOPMENT
THERE. IN ADDITION...WITH THE LOW LEVEL DRYING...DEW POINTS FELL
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. FURTHER NORTHER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LAKE REGION SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY AND MOVING TOWARDS THE PALM BEACH METRO AREA. A WEAK
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS ALSO DEVELOPED...AND THIS MAY ENHANCE
ACTIVITY FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS MAINLY FROM BROWARD COUNTY
NORTHWARD INTO THIS EVENING.

SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE MIDNIGHT ALONG THE EAST
COAST...WITH MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIG DOWN INTO THE
SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY AND THEN BEGIN TO LIFT OUT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND DEEP MOISTURE. HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION...AND THIS COULD LIMIT
INSTABILITY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
NATION...WITH EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING TO SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY.
A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN...AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TAP THIS DEEP MOISTURE
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...AND A WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE. COASTAL
CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS IN THE LATE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN SPREAD TO THE GULF COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DECREASE SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A RETURN TO A MORE GULF
BREEZE ORIENTED SETUP WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND GULF COASTAL AREAS. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF THEN
AGREE WITH SLIDING THIS RIDGE FURTHER WEST AND OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

MARINE...
AN EASTERLY FLOW REGIME WILL THEN SET UP AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT 3 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  89  75  85  76 /  60  50  70  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  77  86  78 /  60  50  70  60
MIAMI            89  77  86  78 /  50  50  70  60
NAPLES           86  75  87  74 /  50  30  70  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...13/SI


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