Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 301425
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1025 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...

IMPRESSIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, HAS
OOZED INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 50F
THIS MORNING, BEHIND A COLD FRONT. ALSO SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. PERHAPS SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS SURVIVE INTO OUR FAR OFFSHORE GULF WATERS THIS PM. A LINE
OF SHOWERS HAS ALSO LINED UP OVER THE GULF STREAM IN OUR ATLANTIC
ZONES MOVING DUE SOUTH. OTHERWISE ANOTHER DRY AND WARM AFTERNOON
IS EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014/

AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING BEFORE GOING
EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS FOR THE EAST COAST
TAF SITES. THE WINDS AT KAPF TAF SITE WILL ALSO BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS MORNING BEFORE GOING WESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN VFR ALONG WITH
DRY WEATHER FOR TODAY.

AVIATION...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND RETREATS SOUTHWARD TODAY...THEN A PAIR
OF COLD FRONTS PASS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE LATTER WILL BRING
MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS TO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIPRES THAT HAS DOMINATED SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER SINCE THE WEEKEND
IS FINALLY WEAKENING AND DRIFTING SOUTHWARD. WITH RIDGE AXIS
NEARLY OVERHEAD...EASTERLY FLOW HAS SUBSIDED OVERNIGHT...AND
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM/SLIGHTLY DRAINAGE FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR MORE
RADIATIONAL COOLING THAN PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS. LIGHT NORTH WINDS
TODAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED...WITH MAXIMA REACHING
NEAR NORMAL /MID-UPR 80S/. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH CENTRAL
FLORIDA TONIGHT...THEN CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE
REMAINS MODEST AND FORCING LACKING...SO AT MOST SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING THE EAST COAST METROPOLITAN AREAS LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT...DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
ON NORTHWEST WINDS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED H5 LOPRES
CENTERED OVER MID-ATLANTIC WILL FORCE A SECOND COLD FRONT INTO
FLORIDA FRIDAY NIGHT. CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE GA/SC COAST WILL CAUSE
THE FRONT TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY. COMBINATION OF DEEPENING LOPRES OFF MID-ATLANTIC AND
POWERFUL RIDGE DIVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS/MS VLY WILL
MAKE NEARLY IDEAL CAA SCENARIO FOR THE PENINSULA...AS CONTINENTAL
POLAR AIRMASS PLUNGES SWD. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
70S SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFOREMENTIONED COLD SURGE WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES AROUND 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT...LIKELY THE COLDEST SOUTH
FLORIDA HAS EXPERIENCED SINCE AT LEAST MARCH. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE CONTINUED
TO TREND COLDER FOR A NUMBER OF CONSECUTIVE RUNS...AND NOW
PROJECTED MINIMA SUNDAY MORNING /UPPER 40S WEST PALM BEACH AND
NAPLES METROS AND LOW 50S FT LAUDERDALE AND MIAMI METROS/ MAY
THREATEN DAILY RECORDS.

AMPLE SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 70S SUNDAY...AND
BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN NORTHEAST...INITIATING A LENGTHY
PERIOD OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE ON EASTERLY WINDS...AND A FEW EAST COASTAL SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE BACK TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AGAIN AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH ENE FLOW. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER CENTRAL FLORIDA
NEAR THE END OF THIS TAF CYCLE. A FEW SHRAS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MAY PUSH INTO KFMY AND KRSW NEAR 06Z TOMORROW. KEPT VCSH MENTION
OUT OF KAPF TAF FOR NOW.

MARINE...
AS A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS CROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WINDS AND SUBSEQUENTLY SEAS WILL BEGIN TO RISE...AND
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  68  83  60 /  10  10  20   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  85  71  85  63 /  10   0  30   0
MIAMI            85  70  84  63 /  10   0  30   0
NAPLES           84  67  81  63 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....23/SK



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