Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 130819
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
319 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL LIFT NORTHWEST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...ARCTIC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW
TODAY WITH COLD/DRY AIR SURGING INTO THE REGION. CURRENT BATCH OF
CLOUDS NEAR THE CST SHLD CLR OUT BY DAYBREAK WITH MAINLY SUNNY
SKIES EXPECTED. STRONG CAA WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO AROUND FREEZING NRN
TIER WHERE THERE IS SOME SNOW PACK TO MID/UPR 30S SRN TIER. TIGHT
PRES GRDNT WILL LEAD TO NW WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 30 MPH MUCH OF THE
DAY MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COLDER.

WILL CONT WINTER WX ADVRY THRU EARLY MORN FOR NRN TIER AS TEMPS
DROPPING INTO 20S WILL LEAD TO WET/SLUSHY ROADS BECOMING ICY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...ARCTIC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD CLOSER WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING INLAND. WITH CLR SKIES EXPECT VERY COLD LOWS AROUND
15 OR SO INLAND WITH LOWER 20S MOST BEACHES WHERE WILL REMAIN
BREEZY. SOME SPOTS COULD APPROACH OR SET RECORD LOWS...SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW. THE COLD TEMPS COMBINED WITH THE WIND WILL LEAD TO
SINGLE DIGITS WIND CHILLS LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

SUNDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY
AS THE RIDGE AXIS CROSSES THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE MOSTLY ZONAL WITH ONE STRONG SHORTWAVE EXITING OFF
THE MAINE COAST AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. 850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET TO -10 TO -15C SUNDAY UNDER
WEAK SURFACE COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS DROPPING
TO 1225-1240 METERS, YIELDING VERY COLD MAX TEMPERATURES. SOME
RECORD LOW MAX VALUES POSSIBLE SUNDAY. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW
FOR RECORD LOWS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS 27-33
DEGREES SUNDAY, COLDEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIG
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY, WHILE SFC CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL NOSE SOUTHWEST
INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES PRODUCING A WEAK COLD-AIR DAMMING
SCENARIO MONDAY MORNING LEADING TO P-TYPE CONCERNS. MODEL SUITE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING FOR THE COASTAL
PLAIN COUNTIES EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT WARM NOSE
LIFTS NORTH DUE TO STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET.
CONTINUED PREVIOUS TREND OF SNOW BY DAYBREAK, THEN SNOW/SLEET MIX
FOLLOWED BY SNOW/RAIN MIX AND EVENTUALLY ALL RAIN BY MIDDAY. LOW
LEVELS REMAIN FAIRLY DRY UNTIL ROUGHLY 09Z AND BEYOND. SOME IMPACTS
COULD OCCUR DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS
COUNTIES BEFORE WARMING OCCURS LATE MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH THROUGH EASTERN NC BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE 00Z GUIDANCE COMPARED TO THE 12Z
RUNS. THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST DOES NOT BECOME AS
STRONG, THOUGH REMAINS SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT ALSO SPEEDS UP SIGNIFICANTLY AND
SHOULD BE OFF THE EASTERN NC COAST BY 18-21Z TUESDAY, GREATLY
DIMINISHING THE OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD DESTABILIZATION.
DESPITE AMPLE SHEAR, THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS
VERY LOW EXCEPT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. HAVE TRIMMED MENTION OF
THUNDER TO OFFSHORE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. QUICKER
FRONTAL PASSAGE ALSO CUTS DOWN ON POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING, WITH QPF AMOUNTS RANGING 0.5-1 INCH ACROSS
EASTERN NC FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE BASE OF A BROAD EASTERN CONUS TROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH A SURFACE REFLECTION LIFTING NORTHEAST
THROUGH VA WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SECONDARY, REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WILL SHIFT THROUGH EASTERN NC LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH VA. THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY MODEST
UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY
AND NOSE SOUTH OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE FRIDAY. OVERALL BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL NOT BE EXCEPTIONALLY COLD BEHIND
THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH HEIGHTS NEAR CLIMO MEAN FOR MID FEBRUARY.
HIGHS ON WED AND THURSDAY IN THE 50S, WITH SOME 40S NORTHEAST
ZONES. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S. FRIDAY WILL SEE A
WARMING TREND TO ABOVE CLIMO AS HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES BUILD WITH
ZONAL FLOW ENSUING AND MAX TEMPS POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS THE LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THRU THE PERIOD...WITH
PATCHY LIGHT FOG ENDING SHORTLY. LINGERING HIGH BASED CU OR MID
LVL CLOUDS SHLD DISSIPATE BY DAYBREAK WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES THRU
TONIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. NW WINDS WILL GUST AOA 20
KTS FROM MID MORN TO LATE AFTN.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE EASTERN NC TAF SITES. PRECIP
COULD BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW OR WINTRY MIX MONDAY MORNING AT KISO
AND KPGV BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN AFTER AROUND NOON. HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY, ALONG WITH
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...NW WINDS WILL CONT TO INCREASE THRU DAYBREAK
AS ARCTIC AIR BEGINS TO SURGE INTO THE REGION. COULD SEE SOME
GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS CNTRL AND NRN WTRS SO WILL CONT MARGINAL GALE
WARNING THESE AREAS INTO EARLY AFTN. SCA EXPECTED FOR REST OF WTRS
EXCEPT WRN RIVERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS GRDNT REMAINS TIGHT TO THE
E OF THE STRONG HIGH. THE GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH TEMPS WELL
BELOW FREEZING COULD LEAD TO SOME FREEZING SPRAY TONIGHT. THE
STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO SEAS REACHING 6 TO 8 FT OUTER WTRS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM FRI...GUSTY NW WINDS DIMINISH AND SHIFT MORE
NORTHERLY SUNDAY. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO DROP BELOW SCA
CONDITIONS SUNDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE, NORTH
OF THE REGION. REPRIEVE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS GUSTY WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS DEVELOP ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. AN AREA OF STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE SW MONDAY, THEN TRACK INLAND OVER CENTRAL NC MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS LIKELY TO REACH GALE FORCE AT LEAST
IN GUSTS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS, AS SOUTH WINDS
INCREASE TO 25-35 KT, PEAKING EARLY TUESDAY. SEAS PEAK AT 10-13
FEET OR HIGHER BY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS VEER WESTERLY TUESDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND DIMINISH TO 15-25
KT, THOUGH SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ABOVE 6 FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MIN TEMPS FOR 2/14

LOCATION  TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN    16/1955  (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS  15/2015  (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE     -2/1899  (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY  11/1968  (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON         6/1973  (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE   15/1968  (KNCA AWOS)

RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR 2/14

LOCATION  TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN    39/1979  (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS  35/1958  (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE     28/1899  (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY  37/2015  (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON        34/1986  (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE   40/1958  (KNCA AWOS)


RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR 2/15

LOCATION  TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN    20/2015  (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS  21/2015  (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE      2/1899  (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY  21/1969  (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON        13/1943  (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE   20/2015  (KNCA AWOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ029-
     045>047-080-081-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ130-131.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...RF/DAG
MARINE...RF/DAG
CLIMATE...MHX


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