Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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964
FXUS62 KMHX 250035
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
835 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend into the area through Monday.
Hurricane Maria is expected to track slowly off the North
Carolina coast early to mid week. A cold front will cross the
area late in the week. Please see the latest official forecasts
from the National Hurricane Center and local NWS offices.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
As of 835 PM Sun...No big changes with update. Have inc sky
cover a bit as bkn cirrus streaming into E NC. Late tonight low
stratus will advect into the area from the Atlantic from the
northeast.

Previous discussion...As of 245 PM Sunday...High pressure will
continue to ridge south into NC tonight with continued mild and
dry weather. Guidance is in agreement that low clouds will
develop and spread southwest across the area well after
midnight. Any showers associated with the far outer rain bands
of Maria should be confined to the offshore waters overnight.
Lows will range from the mid to upper 60s inland to around 70
southern beaches. Northerly winds will be gusty along the coast
as the pressure gradient tightens in advance of Maria.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
As of 245 PM Sunday...Maria will advance NNW to be well
offshore of the Carolinas by late Monday. Clouds should thicken
and lower, especially coast where windy conditions will develop.
Will continue a 20-30% chance for afternoon showers east
(highest coast) but rainfall amounts will be light. Highs will
be in the lower 80s inland and upper 70s beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 PM Sunday...The primary forecast concern through most
of the long term will be impacts associated with Hurricane Maria.
Maria will slowly lift north off the Southeast coast Monday and
Monday night with high pressure centered to the north limiting
its forward progression through mid week. Guidance stalls Maria
off the NC coast Tuesday through late Wednesday before an
approaching upper level trough and attendant cold front finally
push Maria to the east sometime Thursday.

There remains significant spread in the models with both the
track, especially with how close Maria gets to the NC coast
before stalling, and timing with this system, and uncertainty
remains high with the the degree of impacts Maria could bring to
Eastern NC. However, the slow moving nature of this system will
prolong and possibly enhance the impacts that Eastern NC does
receive. At this time, the greatest impacts are expected to be
associated with the large surf impacting the coast and significant
beach erosion is likely with ocean overwash probable in typically
prone areas around times of high tide beginning Tuesday and
peaking Wednesday into Thursday. Highway 12 along the Outer
Banks could be greatly impacted and may become impassable at
times, especially along Pea Island. Coastal flooding along the
southern Pamlico Sound is also possible but the degree of
flooding remains dependent upon how close Maria gets before
recurving out to sea. The key driver for amount of inundation
from storm surge will be the duration of the northerly winds
across the region. The soundside of the Outer Banks from Buxton
to Ocracoke, and possibly Downeast Carteret County, look to be
the most vulnerable locations for sound side flooding at this
time.

In addition, tropical storm force wind speed probabilities
continue to increase, with latest values between 60-70 percent,
meaning tropical storm force winds will be possible, especially
across the eastern third of the region with strongest winds
expected across the Outer Banks. At this time, rainfall amounts
look to be around 1-3 inches across the eastern half of the CWA
to less than an inch across the Coastal Plain. We are not
expecting significant impacts from rainfall flooding at this
time but it could be compounded across the Outer Banks by the
impacts associated with storm surge.

Maria is expected to quickly move away from the area Friday
with an upper level trough approaching from the west. Models not
in good agreement with the strength of the upper trough and
available moisture as it moves into the area but could see a few
showers over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term /Through Monday/...
As of 8 PM Sun...It should remain well mixed overnight, even
inland, such that fog is not expected. However, there are strong
signals in the guidance that low clouds with IFR bases will
develop after around 4am and last through Monday morning before
lifting to MVFR levels by late morning or early afternoon.
N to NE winds will gust 15-20 kt Monday afternoon.

Long Term /Monday night through Friday/...
As of 220 PM Sunday...Predominant VFR conditions expected
through Monday Night. Hurricane Maria will slowly approach the
region Tuesday and stall off the coast Wednesday into Thursday.
Shower chances are greatest along the coast but could see
periods of sub-VFR conditions in showers at the terminals.
Northerly wind gusts around 20-30 kt possible, especially
Tuesday into Wednesday. Aviation conditions improve late
Thursday into Friday as Hurricane Maria finally moves away from
the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Monday/...
As of 245 PM Sunday...Building seas and increasing winds will
be on tap for the NC waters as Maria approaches late Monday
producing dangerous conditions over our waters. N/NE winds 15 to
25 kt tonight will increase to 20 to 30 kt with higher gusts
Monday. As usual the wave models have been too quick to increase
seas with hurricane swell. Current 5 to 8 ft seas are forecast
to build to 10 to 14 ft late tonight and 11 to 16 ft by late
Monday.

Long Term /Monday night through Friday/...
As of 230 PM Sunday...Hurricane Maria will lift north toward
the region Monday and stall off the coast Tuesday through
Thursday. There remains significant uncertainty with how close
Maria will get to the coast before stalling, leading to low
confidence in the details of the forecast. Boating during this
period is not recommended. With the latest NHC forecast,
Tropical Storm winds are expected to impact portions of the
central coastal waters beginning Tuesday and continuing into
Thursday with strong SCA conditions elsewhere. Seas are expected
to reach as high 15-25 ft Tuesday into Thursday and could even
be higher depending on how close Maria approaches the region.
Marine conditions begin to improve late Thursday into Friday as
Hurricane Maria finally moves east away from the NC coast,
though SCAs are likely to continue through Friday for hazardous
seas in the wake of Maria.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Tropical Storm Watch for NCZ046-047-081-095-098-103-104.
MARINE...Tropical Storm Watch for AMZ130-131-135>137-150-152-154-156-
     158.
&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/TL
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...DAG/JME/TL
MARINE...DAG/JME



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