Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 280212
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1011 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK.
IT WILL DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE COAST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1010 PM SUN...FCST LOOKS ON TRACK. CONVECTION REMAIN WELL TOT
HE W AND NW OF ERN NC. CANT RULE OUT SOME POSS DEVELOPMENT LATER
ALONG ANY OUTFLOW WITH DECENT INSTAB CONT HOWEVER CHCS SEEM SMALL SO
LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHC. LIGHT TO  MODERATE SW FLOW AND HIGH
DEWPTS WILL RESULT IN WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 75 TO 80 DGR
RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...MODELS STILL DEPICTING A VERY ACTIVE AFTERNOON.
JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA IS IN SLIGHT RISK ACCORDING TO
LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM SPC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH LIFTED INDICES -8 TO -9...CAPES IN EXCESS
OF 3300 J/KG AND SWEAT VALUES ABOVE 300 JUST TO NAME A FEW. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. INCLUDED ENHANCED
WORDING FOR THE COUNTIES COVERED BY THE SLIGHT RISK...WHICH IS THE
ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER. SEVERE THREAT WILL
END IN THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY NIGHT...THEN UNSEASONABLY DRY AND `COOL` FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.

THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
EVENING...AS LARGE UPR TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND
ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT NEARS E NC. CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS
THINKING THAT MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE
ALONG AND EAST OF A WALLACE TO NEW BERN TO OREGON INLET LINE WHERE
RICHEST AIR MASS WILL RESIDE PER SFC DEWPOINTS INTO THE 70S. WILL
RETAIN POPS RANGING FROM LOW CHANCE FAR NORTHWEST TO LIKELY POPS
SOUTHEAST.

FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT MONDAY WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND
DRY AIR MASS FILTERING IN FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. THERE
MAY BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER OR TWO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS H85 MB
FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST DESPITE NORTHERLY SFC FLOW. AFTERNOON HIGHS
NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 OBX. SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW
AND ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. SFC WIND FLOW WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL BRING
DEWPOINTS TO AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S.

NEXT WEEKEND MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS IN GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEEP TROUGH
RETROGRADING WEST AND A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SW ATLANTIC BERMUDA
HIGH BUILDING TOWARDS THE REGION. WILL CONT CHC PRECIP IN THE FCST
FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH PSBLTY OF LOW PRES MOVING IN FROM THE SW ALONG
THE COAST WITH A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM SUNDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE
TAF PERIOD. CANT RULE OUT SOME CONVECTION REACHING AREA LATER
TONIGHT FROM ACTVTY APPROACHING MTNS BUT FOR NOW NOT CONFIDENT IT
WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS INSTAB SLOWLY WEAKENS SO NO MENTION IN TAFS.
DECENT LOW LVL SW FLOW SHLD LIMIT THREAT OF FOG AND STRATUS
OVERNIGHT. MON WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH WRLY LOW LVL FLOW CAPPING
CONVECTION TIL LATER IN AFTN AND MAY BE MAINLY NEAR CST. WILL ADD
VCTS TO EWN AND OAJ LATER MON AFTN. WHAT STORMS DO DEVELOP COULD
BECOME SVR GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS
POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH MON
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY MONDAY EVENING WITH TEMPO IFR/MVFR IN HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED
VSBYS. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE KEWN AND KOAJ WHERE HIGHER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDES. WINDS BECOME NORTH AND NORTHEAST TUE THROUGH
MID WEEK AS LARGE AND DRY HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. DEWPOINTS WILL BE
FAIRLY LOW AT NIGHT SO AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
RADIATION FOG EACH NIGHT...THOUGH COULD DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES AS
WINDS BECOME CALM AND SKIES MO CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
LONG TERM /THROUGH MON/
AS OF 1010 PM SUN...SW WINDS SLOWLY INCREASING WITH GUSTS AOA 20 KTS
CNTRL/SRN WTRS. SEAS SLOW TO BUILD BUT GIVEN INCREASING TREND IN
WINDS WILL CONT MARGINAL SCA S OF HAT INTO MON MORN.

PREV DISC...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL PEAK AT 15-20 KNOTS
BUT SMALL CRAFT SEAS STILL EXPECTED. HOWEVER...BASED ON LATEST DATA
IT LOOKS LIKE SCA SEAS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH
OF CAPE HATTERAS...SO WILL DROP SCA FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF HATTERAS
AND ON THE PAMLICO SOUND. STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 KNOTS AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL SO
MARINERS NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE SKY AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK
SAFE HARBOR QUICKLY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SUN...COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE MON
NIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...MON
EVENING. WINDS TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST ON TUE BUT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA RANGE. THE NE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA...WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH 2-4 FT SEAS
EXPECTED. WINDS VEER TO SE AROUND 10 KT AND SEAS 2-3 FT AS INVERTED
TROF MOVES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR AMZ154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...RF/JAC
MARINE...RF/HSA/JAC












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