Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 241754
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1254 PM EST Fri Nov 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend over the area through tonight with
low pressure moving across to the south and southeast. A dry
cold front will move through from the northwest Saturday night.
High pressure will build in from the west Sunday and Monday and
will extend over through Wednesday. Another cold front will
approach the area Friday

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1015 AM Friday...No significant changes with update. High
clouds on western edge of deep moisture axis will affect eastern
half of area today but still expect highs mainly 55-60.

/Previous discussion/

As of 7 AM Friday...An upper trough persists across the
Southeast today with sfc high pressure centered over VA
extending into the deep south. Shortwave energy and the initial
low pressure area will push east today with dry conditions and
mainly sunny skies inland to partly cloudy along the coast where
high clouds may bring more filtered sunshine at times.
Increased insolation and rising low level thicknesses will bring
temps a few degrees warmer than yesterday and expect highs in
the mid 50s to around 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
As of 2 AM Friday...Another embedded shortwave will move trough
the east coast trough tonight with a secondary low pressure area
lifting NE across the offshore waters. This low will be little
farther south and expect dry condition across eastern NC with
mainly clear skies inland to partly cloudy skies along the
coast. Light winds will allow for good radiational cooling
conditions and expect lows in the low to mid 30s inland to 40s
along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 215 AM Friday...A cold front will cross the area Saturday
night, then high pressure will dominate the region through mid week.
Another cold front will approach the area Friday.

Saturday...A cold front will approach the area on Saturday and push
through Saturday night. Majority of all the models continue to show
no precip associated with this frontal passage. Expect highs in the
low/mid 60s across the area and lows in the low/mid 40s inland to
low 50s OBX. Expect the best CAA to hold off until Sunday night.

Sunday through Wednesday...High pressure will build in from the west
Sunday and Monday, then slide off the coast of Wednesday with no
precip in the forecast. Temperatures will be on the cool side on
Sunday and Monday with highs in the mid 50s with overnight lows in
low/mid 30s inland and mostly 40s beaches. As the high pushes of
shore, temperature will trend warmer on Tuesday with highs in the
60s, with Wednesday being the warmest.

Thursday and Friday...High pressure will continue to extend over
eastern NC from the Western Atlantic with a cold front approaching
the area. As a result, an increase of moisture across the area, and
continued the mention of slight chance of showers mainly east of HWY
17. The cold front is expected to push through the area Friday.
Expect highs in the low/mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term /through 18Z Saturday/...
As of 1250 PM Friday...Pred VFR conditions expected through the
period with high pressure and very dry airmass in place
bringing mainly sunny skies and light winds at the terminals.
With cold temps, clear skies and calm winds patchy steam fog is
expected again tonight which will impact PGV and possibly EWN.

Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 215 AM Friday... VFR conditions will dominate the period. A
cold front will cross the area Saturday night bringing an increase
of clouds, but no precip at TAF sites. Then, high pressure will
build in and dominate the are through midweek.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Tonight/...
As of 1015 AM Friday...no changes with update.

/Previous discussion/

As of 230 AM Friday...High pressure remains centered across VA
into the Southeast through the short term with a couple areas of
low pressure passing along a stalled frontal boundary well south
of the area, one this morning and the second tonight. Seeing a
slight increase in pressure gradients and expect NE winds around
10-15 kt north of Cape Hatteras and 15-20 kt south through this
evening with seas 3-5 ft north and 4-6 ft south. Expect winds to
diminish to 5-15 kt after midnight tonight while gradually
backing to NW with seas subsiding to 3-5 ft for all waters.
Continue SCA for the waters south of Oregon Inlet today and
south of Ocracoke through this evening for seas to 6 ft and
possibly wind gusts to around 25 kt off Cape Lookout.

Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 215 AM Friday...A cold front will approach the area
Saturday from the west and push through Saturday night. Winds
will be from the West 10-15 knots Saturday with seas 2 to 4
feet. The cold front will cross Sat night with NW winds
increasing to 15 to 25 kts Sun and seas building to 4 to 6
feet...highest outer central nrn waters. As the high builds
closer Sun night and Mon, N winds will diminish to mainly to
around 10 kts or less with seas subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ152-
     154.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...JBM/SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...JBM/SK/BM
MARINE...JBM/SK/BM



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