Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 250208
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1008 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will drop south across the area tonight followed by
high pressure from the north Sunday through Monday. Another cold
front will move through from the west Tuesday night, then high
pressure will build in from the northwest Wednesday through
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 1005 PM Saturday, cold front continues to makes its slow
trek into northern NC and should move slowly across the region
overnight into early Sunday. Adjusted the timing of precipitation
to closer to morning as latest 15-minute 3-km HRRR model shows any
light precipitation over the far northern counties early Sunday
morning, but the chances will be quite slim. No changes to
temperature forecast overnight with lows upper 60s to lower 70s.
Expect to see more stratus versus fog with the frontal passage
given decent mixing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
As of 3 PM Sat...High pressure will extend over the area from the
north Sunday night, shifting off the east coast Monday night.
Coolest night will be Sunday night with low level E/NE flow.
Overnight lows in the 60s. Low level flow will gradually veer
through the day Monday as high shifts eastward and front
approaches from the west. Low level thickness values support highs
in the upper 70s to lower 80s...and will feel much more pleasant
with dewpoints in the 60s. Overnight lows Monday night in the mid
60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 3 PM Sat... Moisture will begin to overspread the area from
the south into Tuesday as winds veer to SSW ahead of a cold front
approaching from the west. Reintroduced slight chance PoPs Monday
for the southwest half of the forecast area, gradually spreading
northeast Monday night and covering the entire area on Tuesday.
The front will move off the coast Wednesday morning with drier and
cooler air filtering in behind it for Thursday into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term /Through 00Z Monday/...
As of 655 PM Saturday, VFR conditions will persist until patchy
stratus arrives behind cold front around 08z through about midday
Sunday. Should return to VFR Sunday afternoon as drier air filters
in from the north.

Long Term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 3 PM Sat...Isolated showers possible Monday. Scattered
showers and storms Tuesday, with isolated showers possible
Wednesday. Surface winds from the NE 5-10 Sunday, E around 5 knots
Monday, S around 5 knots Tuesday and NE around 5 knots Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Sunday/...
As of 1005 PM Saturday, Small Craft Advisory remains in place from
Ocracoke northward as gusty N/NNE winds are now increasing behind
cold front as it slowly progresses into our far northern counties
this evening and should move south overnight. Seas continue at 4-6
feet with some long period swell energy from distant Tropical
Cyclone Karl, running 10-12 seconds. Expecting NE winds 15-20
knots tonight, then 10-20 knots Sunday, diminishing to 10-15 kt
late afternoon.

Long Term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 3 PM Sat...Pressure gradient through the period will not be
very tight, with wind speeds no higher than 10-15 knots. Winds
will steadily veer Sunday night through Tuesday, with the high
moving off to the east on Monday and a cold front approaching from
the west Tuesday. The front will move off the coast Wednesday
morning, with a NE flow setting up across the area behind it. Seas
will average 3-5 feet Sunday night, and 2-4 feet Monday through
Thursday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday afternoon for NCZ095-
     103-104.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...CTC/HSA
MARINE...CTC/CQD/HSA


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