Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 250131
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
931 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND WILL EXTEND
OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 930 PM FRI...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION. A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
HIGH CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THIS EVENING. THESE CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN CLEARING
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED ALLOWING FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S INLAND AND MID 50S BEACHES WHERE A LIGHT
BREEZE SHOULD CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 146 PM FRI...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHUNTED TOWARD THE
SOUTH AS A WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHES. THIS WILL TURN WIND TO
SOUTHWESTERLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...A DRY SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE AREA SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND AMPLIFY THROUGH MID WEEK LEADING TO
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS WITH NEAR NORMAL LOWS AS ATMS WILL BE VERY DRY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN NC LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AS IS TYPICAL WITH
DAY 6-7 SYSTEMS...MODELS DIVERGE ON TIMING OF FRONTAL SYSTEM SO
WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CHANCE POPS...AND WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDER THURSDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ONLY WEAK
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. HIGHS 75-80 THROUGH MONDAY THEN WARMING
INTO THE 80-85 DEGREE RANGE TUE AND WED. LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
START OUT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S THEN MODERATE INTO THE 50S TO NEAR
60 BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 600 PM FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AS DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE WEATHER. A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE AREA THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS WITH BASES 15,000-20,000 FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LONG TERM AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL
THE AIR MASS REMAINS DRY SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR
CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF RADIATION FOG
IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE EARLY MORNINGS DUE TO LARGE
WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH SATURDAY PRODUCING NORTHWEST FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH 3
TO 5 FT SEAS THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO
10 KT AND BECOME WESTERLY SATURDAY WHILE SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4
FT LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRI...A WEAK COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SHORT WAVE
WILL SHIFT WINDS NORTHWESTERLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE LATE SAT THROUGH SUNDAY BEHIND THE
DRY COLD FRONT BUT REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS...THEN DIMINISH
AGAIN MONDAY. EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
MID WEEK AS SURFACE FLOW BECOMES LIGHT AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT
ACROSS THE EASTERN NC WATERS. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY
OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG/JME
NEAR TERM...CGG/JME
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JME/TL
MARINE...CGG/JME/TL






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