Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 300819

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
419 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

A weak cold front will meander just north of the area through
Friday. A stronger front will push in from the northwest Saturday
but then stall and return north early next week.


As of 330 AM Thursday...Weak front will remain stalled north of
area today and another short wave approaching from west will
result in scattered convective activity mainly this afternoon.
Weak outflow in wake of overnight convective activity that moved
across along and north of Hwy 64 will produce light N-NE winds
across most of area early this morning, but true air mass boundary
with lower dew points will remain north of area. Scattered to
broken convective activity offshore to south and southeast will
spread northeast early this morning but generally expected to
remain off coast with weakening during the day.

A few storms over inland sections could be severe this afternoon
into this evening per SPC day 1 outlook. Similar conditions to
last evening and overnight with KPGV reporting gust to 45 KT at 10
PM...while just north of area KEDE gusted to 50 KT and KECG to 54
KT around 1 AM.

Temps similar to Wednesday with near 90 inland and mid 80s


As of 330 AM Thursday...scattered convective threat will continue
overnight with front just north of area and short wave moving
across. Isolated severe storm possible mainly west and north.

Persistence for min temps with around 70 inland to mid 70s coast.


As of 320 AM Thu...Unsettled weather expected into early next
week as frontal boundary stalls over Eastern NC.

Friday through Monday...Frontal boundary will remain north of the
area Friday into early Saturday with warm moist SW flow. Upper
level flow becomes more zonal this weekend, but slow moving front
should provide enough of a focus combined deep moisture and weak
upper level energy aloft to produce scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms. Mainly diurnally driven convection Friday. An
isolated pulse type tstm possible with gusty winds, small hail and
heavy rain...though given little forcing aloft widespread svr wx
not expected. Forecast soundings show SB CAPE values 2500-3000
J/KG, LI values -7/-8C and 0-6km shear 25-35 knots.

Model consensus continues to show frontal boundary pushing into
the northern cwa by Saturday afternoon...with the NAM about 12
hours slower than the ECMWF/GFS. The front will continue to sink
southward Sat night and Sunday as waves of low pressure develop
along it. The front will likely remained stalled across Eastern NC
into Monday before washing may not even make it through
the southern zones. Will continue high chance/likely pops Sat into
Monday...with best chances for widespread precip Sat night into
Sunday. At this time think the main threat will be periods of
heavy rain with PWAT values around 2 inches. 00Z ECMWF shows 1-2"
across the northern half of the cwa Sat night into Sunday. Instability
will likely be limited with widespread cloud cover. Temps look to
be near climo. Low level thickness values and 850mb temps support
highs in the mid 80s to low 90s and overnight lows in the 70s.

Monday night through Wednesday...Models show shortwave moving out
of the OH Valley Monday night into Tuesday with surface low slowly
moving through the Mid-Atlantic. Decreasing moisture and best
forcing north of the area...though could still be enough to
continue threat of scattered showers/tstms. Low level SW flow
returns with gradual warm up expected. Expect convection to become
more diurnally driven Tuesday and Wednesday with inland trough re-
developing and the seabreeze. Temps will gradually warm and should
be mid to upper 80s along the coast and low 90s inland by mid-
week...with overnight lows in the 70s.


Short Term /Through 06Z Friday/...
As of 145 AM Thursday...Current VFR conditions will persist next
couple of hours as stronger showers/tstms have moved NE of area.
Weak surface boundary expected to push south across area 08Z-12Z
with light wind shift to NE-E, and expect MVFR vsbys and CIGS to
develop over most of area. With some decrease in thicker
convective debris and heavier rain earlier tonight, forecast
period of IFR vsbys for KPGV and KISO 09Z-12Z. Conditions
improving to VFR by 14Z with scattered showers/tstms expected this
afternoon and evening as weak boundary moves back north across
area with winds becoming SE-S.

Long Term /Friday through Monday/...
As of 320 AM Thu...Pred VFR conditions expected through the
period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected into early
next week, mainly diurnally driven...with periods of sub-VFR
possible. At this time the best chance for widespread showers and
thunderstorms is Saturday night into Sunday. Patchy fog and
stratus will be possible each morning with moist boundary layer
and light winds.


Short Term /through Tonight/...
As of 330 AM Thursday...weak outflow winds from overnight
convective activity that moved over northern waters will produce
weak north-northeast winds over most of waters early this morning
with speeds 10 KT or less. Inland heating and sea breeze push will
result in winds becoming south-southeast 10-15 KT this afternoon,
with slightly tighter pressure gradient producing south-southwest
winds around 15 KT tonight.

Seas 2-3 feet this morning will build to 3-4 feet tonight with
stronger winds.

Long Term /Friday through Monday/...
As of 320 AM Thu... SW winds 5-15 knots early Friday, increasing
to 10-20 knots Friday afternoon and Friday night. Could see seas
build up to 5 feet on the outer waters south of Oregon Inlet. The
front will push southward into the waters Saturday and then stall
across the NC waters into early next week. Wind directions will be
challenging into early next week and will depend on eventual
placement of front...mainly N/NE 5-15 knots behind the front and
SW 10-15 knots ahead of it. Winds generally aob 15 knots with seas
2-4 feet...though could have some brief surges up to 20 knots as
weak waves develop along the stalled front. The front will wash
out Monday with SW flow returning across the waters.




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