Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 010609
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
209 AM EDT MON SEP 01 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MID WEEK AND STALL UNTIL IT
DISSIPATES LATE IN THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1215 AM MON...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 1025 PM SUN...WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH BERMUDA HIGH IN CONTROL WITH A LIGHT LIGHT S/SW FLOW. EXPECT
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH OCNL MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.
MAY AGAIN SEE A SHOWER ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AN AREA OF
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...THOUGH BULK OF SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE
CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS. LOWS MAINLY LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUN...BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AS THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH BECOMES WELL DEVELOPED. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
INCREASE ALONG THE LOW TO MID LEVELS AND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO REACH IN THE LOW 90S INLAND...THIS WILL BRING CAPE
VALUES INTO AROUND 3500 J/KG. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT
TROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. HIGHS IN THE WILL BE IN
THE LOW 90S INLAND AND MID 80S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 124 PM SUN...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE AND
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH SOME DEVIATION ON THE
POSITION OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. INTO THE WEEKEND MODEL DIFFER IN BOTH THE UPPER LEVEL AND THE
SURFACE PATTERNS. ECMWF BUILDS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE COUNTRY WHILE THE GIVENS HAVE EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER NORTH CAROLINA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES AND
SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST. NO UPPER SUPPORT BUT MAY
SEE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. A FRONT
APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY AS UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE PLAINS
INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH INCREASED POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK
UPPER ENERGY WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES GOING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY. FRONT BECOMES HARD TO FIND IN THE MODEL DATA LATE
THURSDAY. SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE SOUTH
EAST BY FRIDAY. PREFER THE ECMWF FOR THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM MON...VFR MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE NEXT
FEW HOURS...THEN MOIST LOW LVLS AND LIGHT SRLY FLOW APPEAR CONDUCIVE
FOR PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS AND IFR STRATUS AT INLAND SITES. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR QUICKLY WITH HEATING. SHRT WV MOVING ACROSS TOP
OF RIDGE WILL PRODUCE SCT CONVECTIVE THREAT AT KPGV THIS AFTN.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 133 PM SUN...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WITH SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY SEE SOME
SUB VFR CONDITIONS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS WITH LIGHT FOG. FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE DIURNAL
ACTIVITY MAY LOWER CIGS/VIS LOCALLY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1215 AM MON...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 1025 PM SUN...CURRENT OBS INDICATE WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 KT
RANGE...HIGHEST OUTER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS. BERMUDA HIGH
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL DOMINATE THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW. S/SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE
WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT...HIGHEST OUTER CENTRAL AND SRN WATERS. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE IN THIS RANGE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.


LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 146 PM SUN...SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WATERS AND THERMAL TROUGH WEST OF THE WATERS RUNNING 10 TO 15 KNOTS
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN WITH
THE FRONT FOR SPEEDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. DIRECTION WILL BE VARIABLE AS
THE FRONT MEANDERS AROUND THE WATERS. WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONT DISSIPATES AND BERMUDA RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BM
NEAR TERM...TL/BM/JBM
SHORT TERM...BM
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/TL/BM
MARINE...CGG/TL/BM/JBM







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