Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 182118
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
418 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
SATURDAY THEN OFF THE COAST SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL MOVE
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A STRONGER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...A DECK OF MOSTLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUES
TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THESE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA AS A
STRONG MID-LEVEL ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES. IT WILL BE ANOTHER CHILLY
NIGHT DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 30S AREA-
WIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...FRIDAY`S WEATHER WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO
THAT OF TODAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. ANTICIPATE SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS LOW/MID 50S WITH LIGHT N/NE WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM THURS...ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEDGED INTO NC... AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WILL IMPACT THE AREA
SATURDAY. DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT...BTW 290K-300K WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF
THE OF LOW. THERE`S SUFFICIENT LIFT TO SUPPORT PRECIP...BUT LOW
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. KEEPING MOST OF
THE PRECIP ALONG THE COAST. EACH MODEL RUN HAS HAD THE LOW PUSHING
FARTHER OUT...THEREFORE TRENDING DRIER. IF MODELS CONTINUES WITH
THIS TRENDS...POPS WILL NEED TO BE LOWED. EXPECTING PRECIP TO TAPER
OFF SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS ISENTROPIC LIFT SHUTS OFF...BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE COAST AND
DECREASED POPS INLAND ON SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S SATURDAY AND LOW/MID 50S SUNDAY.


ANOTHER WEAK LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST SUN NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STILL WEDGED IN THE AREA. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH THE TIMING AND RAIN CHANCES...AS ECMWF IS QUITE FASTER
THAN GFS. KEPT POPS IN 30-40 PERCENT RANGE FOR MONDAY AND THEN
DRYING OUT LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE AND MID/UPPER DYNAMICS WILL
INCREASE AS A TROUGH DEEPENS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND BECOME
NEGATIVELY-TILTED ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE MAIN LOW
WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKE
REGION...MEANWHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THIS UPCOMING PATTERN WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS AS 0-6KM SHEAR
...LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES ARE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE
OVER THE AREA. INSTABILITY SHOULD DECREASE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM THURSDAY...MID/HIGH CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
AND SHOULD REACH THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 3 OR 4 HOURS. EXPECT
A BROKEN DECK AROUND 10K FEET OR SO. THE COMBINATION OF THIS
BROKEN DECK AND A 3 TO 5 DEGREE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD SHOULD
LIMIT FOG FORMATION TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM THURS...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE SATURDAY AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TWO LOW PRESSURE SYS WILL IMPACT EASTERN
NC. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BECOME SUB-VFR DURING PERIODS OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...LIGHT MAINLY N/NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. SPEEDS
WILL GENERALLY BE 10 TO 12 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS CONTINUING AT 3
TO 5 FEET. FRIDAY SHOULD CONTINUE WITH BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS
WITH N WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET PER LATEST LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS MODELS AND WAVEWATCH.

SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM THURS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE DEEP
SOUTH...WILL IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY. ITS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
OFF THE COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND THE
LOW BECOMING WEAKER AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST...THEREFORE
LIMITING THE IMPACTS. WINDS WILL BE N/NE WINDS 10-15KT SAT...THEN
BECOMING N/NE 10-15 KTS SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FT SATURDAY AND
PEAKING 4 FT...NORTH OF OCRACOKE ON SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG SE COAST...BUT THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE TIMING. AT THIS TIME...WINDS WILL BE NE/E 10-20 KTS WITH SEAS OF
2-3 FT SUNDAY NIGHT BECOMING S/SW 10-15 KTS AND INCREASING 3-4 FT
MONDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE HAS THE LOW LIFTING LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...HAVE KEPT SEAS 2-4 FT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SAC...BUT THINK IT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW.



&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...CTC/BM
MARINE...CTC/BM






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