Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 160237
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1037 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 PM TUE...NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING FORECAST...JUST
TWEAKED GRIDS SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. LATEST SFC
ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS
THROUGH THE CRYSTAL COAST...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF
THE COAST OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...SLOWLY PUSHING ENE. AT THIS TIME
MAIN THREAT WITH ACTIVITY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS 35
TO 45 MPH...AND BRIEF PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RIGHT ALONG
THE FRONT. SHOWERS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
FROM SW TO NE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE
AREA WITH TEMPS DROPPING VERY QUICKLY INTO THE LOWER 50S JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE UPPER 30S COASTAL PLAIN TO
MID/UPPER 40S OUTER BANKS. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WITH CAA MODELS SHOW WIND ADVISORY
CONDITIONS STILL LIKELY FOR OUTER BANKS DARE/HYDE AND DOWNEAST
CARTERET COUNTIES SO WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM TUE...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN BETWEEN THE FRONT
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID ATLANTIC
WILL MAKE FOR WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.
CURRENT WIND ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD AND WILL CONTINUE. DESPITE
FULL SUN HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S NORTHERN OUTER BANKS
TO MID 50S SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM TUESDAY...A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW COUPLED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY DRY AND COOL WEATHER FOR THE
EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST SHOULD DROP INTO THE
MID/UPPER 30S WITH LOW/MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. THERE APPEARS TO BE
SUFFICIENT WIND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO PREVENT FROST FORMATION. DECENT
CONSISTENCY BETWEEN GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SHOWING CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING
OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST IN RESPONSE TO WEAK MID-LEVEL
TROUGH DIVING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
AND SPREAD SOME LIGHT QPF INTO MAINLY COASTAL SECTIONS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BEHIND THE
EXITING LOW WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS A COLD APPROACHES
FRONT HE WEST AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THE FRONT
TOWARD THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM TUE...COLD FRONT HAS NOW MOVED THROUGH ALL TERMINALS
WITH GUSTY N/NW WINDS BEHIND IT. BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35MPH THROUGH 03Z. DRY
AIR WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SKIES CLEARING
QUICKLY. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE INTO WED. GUSTY WINDS COULD RESULT IN CROSSWIND IMPACTS
FOR RUNWAYS AT PGV AND EWN LATE TONIGHT INTO WED.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE EAST
COAST. MOISTURE INCREASES AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE FLORIDA
NORTHEAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SPREADS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THINK THIS WILL MAINLY
AFFECT THE EASTERNMOST TAF SITES AT KOAJ AND KEWN WITH POTENTIAL
BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VSBY/CEILINGS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURNS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1015 PM TUE...FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS
TONIGHT. LATEST OBS SHOW STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND
IT...GUSTING TO 45-50KT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS. FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS
UP TO 40-45KT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS OVERNIGHT. GALE
WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE SOUNDS AND COASTAL WATERS...WITH SCA FOR
THE RIVERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10-14FT ON THE OUTER PORTIONS OF
THE WATERS NORTH OF OCRACOKE WED. STRONG N/NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM TUESDAY...SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS FINALLY DROP OFF
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS AXIS OF HIGH SETTLES OVER THE CAROLINA
COAST. SEAS WILL DROP TO 3 TO 5 FEET ON SUNDAY WITH NE WINDS
GENERALLY AT 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...ELEVATED WATER LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED AS A STRONG
N/NE FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE STRONG WINDS COINCIDE WITH A HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
CYCLE COMING OUT OF THIS EARLY WEEKS FULL MOON. NW GALES GRADUALLY
SHIFTING TO N TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SUGGEST HIGHEST WATER
LEVELS...AROUND 2-3 FT TIDAL ANOMALIES FOR THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OBX ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND BASED ON COASTAL FLOOD
CLIMATOLOGY. CERA WEBSITE KEEPS MAX WATER LEVELS ANOMALIES BETWEEN
1.5-2 FT BUT FEEL IT COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER WITH MINOR IMPACTS
AND WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OBX DARE
AND HYDE. WINDS DO NOT SHIFT TO NE UNTIL WED AFTERNOON AND ARE
DECREASING BELOW GALES AS THEY DO...SO AT THIS TIME THINK THE
SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND AND NEUSE/PAMLICO RIVER AREAS WILL HAVE
LESS OF AN IMPACT. THE HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE
AS A MODERATE NNE FLOW IS MAINTAINED BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRES TO
THE NORTH AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE TROF THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ095-103-104.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ095-103-
     104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ136-137.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ130-131-135-150-
     152-154.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA/CQD
NEAR TERM...HSA/CQD
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CQD/CTC
MARINE...CTC/HSA/CQD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HSA/SK





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