Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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986
FXUS62 KMHX 310513
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
113 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure, the remnants of Tropical Storm Bonnie, will drift
slowly northeast across eastern North Carolina through Thursday,
finally moving off the coast of the northern Outer Banks Thursday
night. A cold front will move in Saturday and become stationary,
dissipating Sunday into Monday. A second cold front will move
through Monday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 110 AM Tuesday...Looks like we will be in a lull in
precipitation for much of the overnight hours. A quick look at the
00Z guidance suggests that precipitation will develop along the
coast around dawn along a coastal warm front which extends from
the remnants of Bonnie which is forecast to drift into southeast
NC by 12z Tuesday. These showers will then tend to become more
numerous and spread inland during the afternoon. Thus have
lowered pops to chance 30-50% (highest coast) for the remainder of
tonight and even this looks like too high based on the latest run
of the HRRR. The low level flow has become easterly across
Eastern NC on the north side of the coastal front and this should
promote the development of widespread low clouds and areas of fog
in the saturated low levels. Continued warm and humid overnight
with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
As of 3 pm Mon...Likely PoPs continue into Tuesday as the remnant
low continues drifting slowly northeast. Timing/placement of PoPs
remains difficult so will continue likely throughout. Highs in the
upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 PM Monday...No significant changes with this issuance as
models remain in decent agreement. Bonnie remnants will continue
to produce scattered convective threat through Thursday, then
slight drying trend possible for Friday and Friday night. Weak
front moving in and stalling will produce another scattered threat
over weekend followed by stronger front moving in Monday.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night...Deeper moisture feed from
east of Bahamas will be pushed farther east and offshore as weak
upper trough associated with Bonnie remnants gradually moves NE.
Sufficient moisture and lift with remnant system will still result
in scattered to occasionally broken coverage of showers/isolated
thunderstorms with locally heavy downpours possible. Highs around
80 Wednesday with lows both night upper 60s to around 70.

Thursday through Friday night...Some model differences still noted
with handling of Bonnie remnants, with GFS moving it off to NE
Thursday night while ECMWF does so on Friday. Will lean to model
blend which follows previous forecast thinking. This will lead to
slightly less coverage of convective activity, mainly Thursday
night and Friday reflected by POPs mainly 20-30%. Temps a few
degrees each day, mainly low to mid 80s.

Saturday through Monday...A weak front/boundary will approach the
region, becoming draped across the area through the weekend. This
will act as an axis for convection to initiate each afternoon. A
lot of variability with the moisture and overall placement of this
boundary. Stronger surface front and upper trough will approach
Sunday night and Monday. Will continue solid chance POPs through
the period. High temperatures will be around the mid-80s with
lows very mild, around 70.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term /through Tuesday night/...
As of 110 AM Tuesday...Gaining confidence that widespread IFR
conditions in low ceilings and areas of fog will develop by 09z
in the saturated low level airmass over eastern NC with a light
easterly component which is a climatological favored scenario.
Think precipitation coverage will be minimal through 12z then a
coastal warm front associated with the remnants of Bonnie
drifting into southeast NC will try to advance north into the
region with showers and storms becoming more numerous and pushing
inland during the afternoon. Still trying to get a handle on
precipitation for late Tuesday/Tuesday night but expecting a lull
late but with continued saturation and light winds low clouds and
fog will again be a concern Tuesday night.

Long Term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 330 PM Monday...Remnant tropical low will drift along and
near the NC coast through Thursday. Scattered to occasionally
broken coverage of showers and isolated thunderstorms will persist
through early Thursday, with slightly less and more diurnally
driven activity late Thursday into Friday. Weak front will move in
and stall over area Saturday, providing additional focus for
showers and storms. Periods of MVFR/IFR likely with heavier
showers and storms through period. With low levels very moist
could also have some light fog/lower stratus develop during the
late night/early morning hours as winds expect to be very light.
Conditions look to improve Thursday as the low moves off the
northern OBX.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Tue/...
As of 110 AM Tuesday...It appears that seas have finally dropped
below 6 ft over the outer waters as of midnight but will continue
the current advisory until 9z to see if this trend of diminishing
seas continues overnight. Winds are becoming easterly around 10
kt. Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt and 3-5 foot seas are expected
for Tuesday.

Long Term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 330 PM Monday...Predominant SE winds 10 to 15 kts with some
gusts 15 to 20 kts through Wednesday as the remnants of Bonnie
move slowly NE inland of coast. Latest guidance is indicating some
sustained S-SW winds over outer central waters late Wed night into
early Thu, with seas building to 6 FT. Winds then shift to NW
mainly less than 15 KT Thu night and Friday as system moves out to
NE. Winds back around to SW Saturday as weak front approaches from
NW.

WW3 initialized too high today and leaned to NWPS for seas.
Heights mainly 3-5 FT into Thursday, then 2-4 FT Friday-Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 3 pm Monday...Scattered to numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms are expected over the area through Wednesday as the
remnants of TD Bonnie drift slowly across the region. The showers
and storms will have locally heavy downpours and are expected to
produce rainfall amounts generally between 1 to 3 inches with
locally heavier amounts through mid week. This heavy rain will
likely lead to some localized minor poor drainage flooding and
ponding on roads. Widespread or significant flooding is not
expected as ground is not overly wet and evapotranspiration is near
maximum this time of year.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ095-103-
     104.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for
     AMZ152-154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...JME/CTC
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...JME/CTC/JBM/HSA
MARINE...JME/CTC/JBM/HSA
HYDROLOGY...MHX



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