Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 290754

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
354 AM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017

A cold front will cross the region early this morning with high
pressure building in from the north later today through
Thursday. A warm front will move through from the southwest
Friday. A cold front will move through early Saturday. Another
cold front will approach the area early next week.


As of 3 AM Wednesday...Calm winds and a moist surface from
precip yesterday has allowed areas of fog to develop across much
of inland areas of eastern NC early this morning. A cold front
will push south through the region around day break with
increasing northerly winds bringing mixing which should serve to
dissipate the fog but models suggesting low st/stcu will
persist through the morning. High pressure builds in from the
north this afternoon with the clouds gradually dissipating.
Northerly flow will bring a large spread in temps today with
highs around 60s across the OBX to mid 70s SW sections.


As of 3 AM Wednesday...High pressure continues to ridge in from
the north tonight with mainly clear to partly cloudy skies and
light north to northeast winds. Min temps expected in the mid to
upper 40s region wide.


As of 340 AM Wednesday...Unsettled weather will continue through
most of the extended period with heavy rainfall possible Friday
and again early next week.

Thursday and Thursday night...Ridging at the surface and mid-
levels will bring dry and slightly cooler conditions to the
region for Thursday. There will be decent thermal gradient
across our region with highs in the lower 50s over the northern
Outer Banks ranging to the mid/upper 60s over the southern CWA.
High clouds will increase from the west through the day with a
few showers starting to approach from the west by late Thursday
night as closed upper low starts to move east from the Ohio

Friday and Friday night...Good agreement in the global models
showing widespread showers and a few thunderstorms for Friday
into Friday night. Deep mid-level trough will take on a negative
tilt during the day Friday with strong low-level wind fields and
wind shear. The main question will be the degree of instability
Friday the GFS (CAPE 1500 J/kg, LI -5) is quite a
bit more unstable than is the ECMWF at the same time (CAPE 500
J/kg, LI -2). A deep plume of moisture will be tapped from the
Gulf of Mexico, so regardless of the severe weather threat...the
setup looks favorable for periods of heavy rain with total QPF
of 1 to 1.5 inches Friday afternoon into Friday night. Highs
Friday range from the mid 60s Outer Banks to mid 70s
southwestern CWA. SPC does have the region in a Marginal Threat
of severe weather Friday afternoon and evening.

Saturday through Sunday...With the axis of the mid-level trough
moving offshore...a nice weekend will be in store for eastern
NC. Temperatures should be seasonable with highs in the low 70s
inland and mid 60s Outer Banks with nighttime lows in the 50s.

Sunday night through Tuesday...Another in a series of strong
upper-level systems will start to approach from the west for
early next week. The closed 500 mb low will move from Texas to
the Tennessee Valley by Tuesday morning. Deep moisture will
again increase with a good chance of showers and possible
thunderstorms Monday evening into Tuesday. With another good
feed of Gulf Moisture to accompany this system...model QPF
totals are again an inch or better with this system.


Short Term /Through Tonight/...
As of 2 AM Wednesday...Calm winds and abundant low level
moisture is bringing areas of fog across the region this
morning with IFR/LIFR conditions at the terminals. Vsbys
expected to improve between 10-13Z as a cold front pushes
through with northerly winds bringing better mixing but
guidance suggests a low st/stcu deck will keep IFR/MVFR cigs
through mid day. Clouds will scatter out this afternoon with
VFR conditions returning through the rest of the short term.

Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 350 AM Wednesday...VFR conditions should prevail Thursday
with surface and mid-level ridging in place. Widespread showers
and possible thunderstorms arrive early Friday and continue into
Friday night. MVFR and possible IFR ceilings and vsbys will be
quite likely as some locally heavy rainfall totals are possible
along with gusty winds. As the upper trough axis moves
offshore...good flying weather is expected for the weekend with
high pressure impacting our weather and VFR conditions likely.


Short Term /Today and Tonight/...
As of 330 AM Wednesday...Light W to NW winds below 15kt across
the water early this morning but a cold front will push through
the waters around day break with winds becoming northerly around
10-20kt with gusts to around 25kt today into this evening.
Winds expected to decrease to 5-15kt after midnight. Continue
to see swells from low pressure east of Bermudas impact the
coastal waters with seas around 4-6 ft across the central and
southern waters. Seas currently around 2-4 ft across the
northern waters but are expected to increase to 4-6 ft late
this morning into the early evening in response to the
northerly surge and will raise a SCA north of Oregon Inlet with
the morning package.

Long term /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 350 AM Wednesday...After a lull in the marine conditions
for Thursday...latest local SWAN/NWPS and Wavewatch models shows
seas will increase from the southwest starting early Friday in
response to gusty SW winds developing ahead of strong cold
front/mid-level closed low. Seas peak at around 8-9 feet Friday
night. Seas should remain elevated through late Saturday with
SCA conditions expected before subsiding Saturday night and
Sunday as weak high pressure builds east across the coastal


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this
     evening for AMZ150.



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