Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 202226
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
626 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT THE
REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 625 PM MONDAY...A THICK SHIELD OF OPAQUE HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUES OVER EASTERN NC EARLY THIS EVENING WHICH HAS
SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITED DETSTABILIZATION TODAY. LATER THIS EVENING A
JET STREAK WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WHILE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES
INTO EASTERN NC AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BETWEEN 9 AND MIDNIGHT. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE OFFSHORE
AROUND 09Z AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF OF THE COAST. ALL OF THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS EXCEPT FOR THE NAM INDICATE THIS SCENARIO.
OVERNIGHT MINS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM MONDAY...COLD FRONT CLEARS THE COAST EARLY IN THE
MORNING WITH MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION. DEWPOINTS
DROP INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S OVER MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON TUESDAY UNDER GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOP OUT IN THE PLEASANT LOW/MID 70S. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY
DROP QUICKLY BY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MON...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WARM
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND POSSIBLY UNSETTLED
WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH COOL OVERNIGHT
LOWS AND WARM HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. ZONAL FLOW BRINGS NEAR CLIMO TEMPS
AND DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S
WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY WITH COLD FRONT THAT WILL SAG INTO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. HAVE CONTINUED TO SIDE WITH DRIER SOLN WITH GFS APPEARING
TO HAVE A WET BIAS. DETERMINISTIC ECMWF MORE IN LINE WITH ITS
ENSEMBLE MEAN IN KEEPING THE AREA DRY...THEREFORE HAVE NO HIGHER
THAN A 20 POP LATE WED NIGHT INTO THUR. ANOTHER SEASONABLE DAY ON
THUR WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...DRY WEATHER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SUNNY DRY
AND COOLER WEATHER. SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE
40S TO NEAR 50 AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.

FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...A PRONOUNCED SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LOOKS TO
AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. TIMING DIFFERENCES THIS FAR OUT THOUGH
GUIDANCE IS EXHIBITING RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY SO HAVE INC POPS JUST
A BIT. DETERMINISTIC CMC/GFS INDICATE A SOUTHERN TRACK WITH THE LOW
BUT THE ECM HAS TRENDED NORTH AND WOULD HAVE THE AREA IN THE WARM
SECTOR. WILL SIDE WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT SOUTHERN SOLN FOR NOW AND
INDICATE A COOLER REGIME WITH STRATIFORM RAIN SHOWERS. SHOULD A MORE
NORTHERLY SOLN VERIFY...E NC WOULD HAVE A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

GENERAL COOLER PATTERN WOULD PERSIST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BROAD
TROUGHING EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 625 PM MONDAY...EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. EXCEPTION WILL BE THIS EVENING WHEN AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE TAF SITES AFTER 06Z
WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE BY 09Z. DRIER AIR WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MON...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS EASTERN
NC TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY YIELDING MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. A WEAK
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO EASTERN NC THURSDAY BUT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE SO EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY. A BETTER CHANCE
FOR PRECIP ARRIVES NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/...
AS OF 625 PM MONDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE RUNNING 15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS ON THE COASTAL WATERS
SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
5 TO 7 FOOT RANGE PER LATEST LOCAL NWPS/SWAN MODEL. SEAS SHOULD
SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW DIMINISHES BELOW
15 KT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NC WATERS INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING MORE WESTERLY, 5-15 KT. SEAS WILL
DIMINISH TO 2-4 FT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS THURSDAY AND SHIFT SOUTH OF
THE WATERS BY THURSDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MARGINAL
SCA CONDITIONS WED NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BNDRY WITH SW WINDS
INC TO 20-25 KT. WINDS VEER NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT THUR AROUND 5-
15 KT WITH PLEASANT BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AND SEAS AROUND 2 TO
4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
     156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...JME/CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JME/TL
MARINE...JME/CTC/TL



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