Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 301324
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
924 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY...AND
THEN OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH
OF THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN PASS
OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
AND CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 915 AM MONDAY...FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED.
BAND OF SHRA OVER CNTRL NC MOVING QUICKLY E AND WILL CROSS ERN NC
LATE MORN THRU EARLY/MID AFTN. GUSTY SW WINDS DEVELOPING AND SHLD
HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING HIGHS IN UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT IS ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS AREA
TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY LINE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS. ACTIVITY
HAS BLOSSOMED ON SRN END OF FRONT OVERNIGHT ACROSS TN VLY...AND
ALL MODELS INDICATE PERIOD OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS ERN NC LATE
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTN FOR A HIGH POP/LOW QPF EVENT. INCREASED
POPS TO CATEGORICAL 80% 14Z-18Z WEST HALF AND 18Z-21Z EAST...WITH
MAX QPF LESS THAN 1/4 INCH. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF
PCPN BUT SOME INSOLATION EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND WENT JUST ABOVE
GDNC FOR MAX TEMPS...MID 50S NRN OBX TO LOWER 60S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY EVENING
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AND COOLER CONDITIONS WITH A SFC RIDGE MOVING
IN FROM W. MOS BLEND FOR MIN TEMPS...UPR 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA
TUE...WHILE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NC.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND SWLY FLOW SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW
60S ALONG THE COAST...AND MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEG INLAND.

BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO THE NORTH WILL PUSH
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING...WHILE
THE SFC LOW PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WITH THE COOLER
NLY FLOW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY EXPECT TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/MID 60S INLAND...AND IN THE 50S FOR
THE OUTER BANKS WITH COLDER SHELF WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE
PLAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND COULD HELP TO TRIGGER ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THOUGH MODELS ARE NOW
TRENDING DRIER FOR THU AND THU NIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP SC POP FOR
NOW. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 70S INLAND...AND 60S FOR
THE OUTER BANKS. FRIDAY EASTERN NC WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPING TO PRODUCE EVEN WARMER HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS FRIDAY SINCE
THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SWING A TRAILING
COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NC BY MID-AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF NOW SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN THE GFS PUSHING THE FRONT/ASSOCIATED PRECIP THROUGH
THE REGION. COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO SWEEP INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 700 AM MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MID-MORNING
HOURS WITH HIGH PRES MOVING OFFSHORE. QUICK MOVING FRONT WILL
PRODUCE LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS AREA MAINLY 15Z-21Z TODAY...WITH
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY ALL TAF SITES. CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN AFTER SHOWERS MOVE E BY EARLY EVENING.
GUSTY SW WINDS UP TO 25 KT EXPECTED AHEAD OF FRONT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THU AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 AM MONDAY...SEVERAL SITES ALONG CST BEGINNING TO GUST
20 TO 25 KTS SO SCA LOOKS GOOD...WL ADD ALBEMARLE SOUND AND
ALLIGATOR RIVER TO SCA AS WINDS APPROACHING 25 KTS CURRENTLY THESE
WTRS.

/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 400 AM MONDAY...MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS FCST PACKAGE WAS TO
ADD SCA FOR N OF OREGON INLET WITH PERIOD OF FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25
KT EXPECTED THERE AS WELL TODAY. SW WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
QUICKLY THIS MORNING TO 20-25 KT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH WITH SHFIT TO W AND NW TONIGHT.

BLEND OF PREVIOUS FCST AND LATEST NWPS FOR SEAS. HEIGHTS PEAKING
AT 6-8 FT OUTER SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS LATE THIS AFTN.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM MON...BRIEF LULL EARLY TUE WITH W/NNW FLOW 5-15KT
AND SEAS 2-4FT...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BACK THROUGH THE DAY
BECOMING SW 15-20KT IN THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE WATERS FROM THE N. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP TUESDAY EVENING WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25KT AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 4-7FT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TUE
NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. GUSTY N/NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID DAY.SEAS 4-7FT WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY. THURSDAY WINDS VEER FROM SOUTHEAST 10 KT
TO SOUTH WHILE INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KT AS A WARM FRONT RETREATS
NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WITH SWLY WINDS 20-25KT AND SEAS 4-7FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135-
     150.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ130-
     131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...RF/JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...RF/JBM/CQD


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