Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 210104
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
904 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT STALLED SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL LIFT BACK NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THEN FRONT WILL LINGER THROUGH
FRIDAY...THEN FINALLY PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 9 PM WED...ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS ENDED. JUST SENT UPDATED
ZONES. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. NO CHANGE IN TEMPS.

PREV DISC...MOST MODELS KEEPING THE AREA DRY OVERNIGHT HOWEVER
THE NAM AND GFS ARE KEYING IN ON SHOWERS DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT
ASSOC WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY ADD SLT CHC POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
AIRMASS REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM LAST NIGHT AND EXPECT
FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH ONCE AGAIN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
AND COND PRES DEFICITS ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. IF ANY SHOWERS DO DEVELOP...ASSOC CLOUDS AND PRECIP
WILL LIKELY LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT NEAR THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND REGION OR JUST NORTH THURS WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRES ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE MISS RIVER
VALLEY THURS WITH HEIGHT RISES ACROSS NC BRINGING A HOT AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WITH LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT KEEPING POPS
AROUND 20-30 PERCENT WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE SEABREEZE...
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INLAND TROUGH. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
INCREASE 5-10M OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S INLAND TO MID-UPPER 80S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DIFFICULTIES IN TIMING OF PRECIPITATION LEADS TO A LOWER THAN NORMAL
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST GOING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY FEEDING THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROF OFF
THE EAST COAST WILL BRING SEVERAL BOUTS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS EASTERN NC FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY. THE HIGHEST
PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED OVER NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE STRONGEST UPPER FORCING WILL
COINCIDE WITH BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE. FOR
NOW WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR EASTERN AREAS FOR MOST OF THIS
TIME FRAME WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES TO THE SW. SEVERE TSTM CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE LIMITED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY BUT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
MAY SUPPORT SOME WEAKLY ROTATING STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AGAIN A THREAT ESPECIALLY WITH THE PEAK IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS QUITE WARM ON FRIDAY BUT SFC HEATING MAY
BE MARGINALIZED BY CONVECTION AND CLOUD DEBRIS. HAVE UNDERCUT MOS BY
SEVERAL DEGREES BUT STILL MAY REACH INTO THE LOW OR POSSIBLY MID 90S
AHEAD OF FRONTAL BNDRY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACRS THE FCST AREA DURING
THE DAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE HELD IN THE 80S DUE PER
DECREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND CLOUDS/SCTD PRECIP.

SFC FRONT DRIVES SOUTH ALONG THE SE COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
STALLS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER NW UPPER FLOW
AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST
SHUD LEAD TO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO HAVE
LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND MAINLY FOR INLAND AREAS TO
COINCIDE WITH FAVORABLE DIURNAL CYCLES. ATYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW FOR
AUGUST WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY.

LATER IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD, MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
BUILDING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THIS SHUD
LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD WITH TEMPS RISING BACK TO OR ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM WED...NAM AND GFS BRING A FEW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT
WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS RTES BUT THAT IS NOT
SUPPORTED BY OTHER MODELS. THE AIRMASS REMAINS RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED FROM LAST NIGHT AND EXPECT FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN WITH
IFR OR BELOW CONDITIONS LIKELY...HOWEVER IF INCREASED CLOUDS
AND/OR SHOWERS DO DEVELOP THAT COULD HINDER FOG DEVELOPMENT.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURS WITH ISOL TO PERHAPS SCT
CONDITION THROUGH PEAK HEATING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED THU NIGHT THRU SAT WITH SHORT WAVES
MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME BRIEF
PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR
EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH
PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE N...SHLD BE MAINLY
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM WED...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT NWD TONIGHT AND RESIDE NEAR OR JUST
NORTH OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND THURS WITH LIGHT SLY FLOW ACROSS THE
WATERS...GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KTS. SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AROUND 2-3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SW WINDS EXPECTED 10 TO 15 KTS THU NIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI AND FRI
NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING N/NE IN ITS WAKE WITH SPEEDS INITIALLY
LIGHT BUT INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS LATER
SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL BUILD
SLOWLY IN THE MODERATE NE FLOW BUT POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RF/CQD
NEAR TERM...HSA/SK
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...HSA/SK
MARINE...HSA/CQD





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