Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 061204
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
704 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY...THEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE REGION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 7 AM FRI...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH
OF THE AREA...WITH COLD 1037 HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN
MISSOURI/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. COLD DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO
THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH DEWPOINTS INLAND NOW INTO THE
TEENS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
SLICK SPOTS MAINLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES THIS MORNING...AS TEMPS
HAVE DROPPED BELOW FREEZING...THOUGH STILL EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACTS.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND N/NE FLOW SUPPORT HIGHS WELL BELOW
NORMAL IN THE 30S TODAY. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
REGION...MAINLY THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET
ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON. COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
GUSTY NLY WINDS...ESP FIRST PART OF THE DAY WILL FEEL MORE LIKE
THE TEENS.

HIGH SURF AND WIND ADVISORY CONTINUE FOR OUTER BANKS WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS 25-35 MPH. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE HIGH SURF THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT...AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE UPPER
FLOW JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...LOWS GENERALLY 20-25 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...EXPECT STRONG WARM ADVECTION TO DEVELOP
SATURDAY IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SOME 10 TO
15 DEGREES WARMER INLAND THAN TODAY UNDER GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES
AS HIGHS REACH THE LOW/MID 50S BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE MID/UPPER
40S OUTER BANKS. BY SUNDAY...LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WSW/W
WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION CONTINUING WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID 60S
WITH MID 50S OUTER BANKS. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE LATE
IN THE DAY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING LATE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM AND BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. THAT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY...PRODUCING SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER EARLY IN THE DAY...MOVING
TO THE COAST BY AFTERNOON. ANY QPF WITH THESE SHOWERS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT...BUT WINDS BECOME NW BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER. BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT FORMS
OFFSHORE WITH CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY
OFF THE NC COAST. RAIN BECOMES WIDESPREAD BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY...HAVE GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF...HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. AS
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH...THE PRECIPITATION SHIFTS TO THE COAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BUILDS SOUTH THURSDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES STILL FAIRLY SEASONABLE WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM FRI...OVERALL CIGS HAVE LIFTED TO VFR THIS MORNING...THOUGH
EWN REMAINS MVFR LIFTING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TODAY WITH SKIES CLEARING...AND NLY
WIND GUSTS 20-25KT SUBSIDING BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...WITH WARMER AND GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR VFR CONDITIONS FROM EARLY
SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFFSHORE AND MOISTURE
INCREASES WITH RAIN DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY...WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM FRI...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATES STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS 20-30 KT WITH GUSTS 30-40KT...AND SEAS 8-11 FT
NORTH AND 5-9 FT SOUTH. GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND...WITH SCAS FOR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND
RIVERS. WINDS PEAKED THE LAST FEW HOURS...AND SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH MID-MORNING. NO SIG CHANGES NEEDED TO PREVIOUS
HEADLINES...EXTENDED SCA FOR ALBEMARLE AND RIVERS THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. GALE FORCE WINDS DIMINISH MID-MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR THE PAMLICO/NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN WATERS...THOUGH
EXPECTED TO REMAIN GUSTY FOR THE CENTRAL LEG THROUGH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TONIGHT...WITH NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN WATERS DROPPING BELOW 6FT BY MIDNIGHT.

VERY MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE MORNING FOR
AREAS ADJACENT TO THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND...MAINLY DOWNEAST
CARTERET COUNTY. HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES NORTH OF HATTERAS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH BREAKING WAVES 8-10FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM FRIDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE A BIT
GUSTY AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS EARLY SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD BECOME SW/W
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WINDS AT GENERALLY 15 KNOTS OR LESS
WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. THIS BENIGN CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO
MORE NW/N WINDS MONDAY...BUT SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT. BY
TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE NC COAST AND STRENGTHENS AS
IT MOVES AWAY. SEAS BUILD AND COULD BE NEAR SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MIDDLE AND SOUTHERN WATERS BY EARLY
TUESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ103.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ130-
     131-136-137.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ135-150.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ152-154.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD/CTC
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CQD/CTC
MARINE...CQD/CTC



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