Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 010808
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
308 AM CDT WED JUN 1 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

A strong shortwave will move across northern Minnesota today and
to the lake Superior region tonight. An 88 knot southwest 250 mb
jet max lifts across eastern Wisconsin today before pushing across
Lake Huron tonight.

Moderate upper level divergence is expected southeast through mid
morning, along with moderate 700 mb upward motion. A 850/700 mb
south/southwest speed max of 30 to 40 knots is lifting north
across eastern Wisconsin, then increases again this afternoon the
the shortwave. surface and 850 mb dew points are highest southeast
this morning, but moisture lingers into the afternoon, especially
southeast. The GFS takes the band of weakening showers and
isolated thunderstorms over south central Wisconsin into southeast
Wisconsin this morning.

The HRRR develops another thin line of showers and possible
thunderstorms early afternoon. The next run did not. The RAP
diminishes the band before reach the far east and only has re-
development near Kenosha early this afternoon.

The GFS does increase zero to 1 km CAPE to 640 joules/kg. With
the higher lingering low level moisture other isolates
showers/thunderstorms are not out of the question.

The Storm Prediction Center has much of southeast Wisconsin in a
marginal severe for the re-development along the cold front this
afternoon.

.THURSDAY...Forecast Confidence...High

Surface high pressure will be in place on Thursday, while a weak
upper wave slides through. The wave will probably bring scattered
to broken cumulus for the afternoon, but likely no precipitation.
Overall, it looks like a very pleasant day with some sunshine and
highs in the low to middle 70s.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium

A warm front will lift into the area Friday. This surge of milder
temps and deeper moisture will likely kick off a few showers and
storms. Kept temps near a consensus blend for now, with clouds and
precip likely keeping highs from reaching full potential given 925
mb temps.

The trough and associated cold front are progged to approach
Friday night, moving through during the day Saturday. Will likely
see upstream showers and storms push into the area Friday night
with lingering activity into at least the morning on Saturday as
the front moves through.

.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium

Models are suggesting a pair of waves embedded in northwest flow
will move through Sunday and Monday. Looks like enough moisture
and instability for scattered showers and a few storms both days.
High pressure is then expected to bring dry weather on Tuesday.
Temperatures will likely be within a couple degrees of normal
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

Expect mvfr and some ifr cigs/vsbys in the band of showers and
isolated thunderstorms that will move across southern Wisconsin
this morning. otherwise VFR conditions by afternoon, but there will
be a chance of more showers with a cold front exiting the far east.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds and waves will remain below small craft advisory levels
through Thursday. Southeast to south winds today will become
west behind a cold front moving across Lake Michigan this afternoon.
will rise to 10 to 20 knots late tonight into Wednesday morning with
Showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front this
morning, and along the front this afternoon.

&&

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...Hentz
Thursday THROUGH Tuesday...DDV



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