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000
FXUS63 KMKX 220849
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
349 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

RADAR RETURNS OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SW WISCONSIN ON LEADING EDGE OF
850 MB WARM ADVECTION...IN REGION OF DECENT CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER NO
GROUND TRUTH AS PRECIP IS DEVELOPING ABOVE DRY...WARM LAYER BETWEEN
750MB AND 650 MB RESULTING IN VIRGA ONLY MAKING IT DOWN TO AROUND 5K
FT ABOVE THE GROUND.

THIS CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE PROBLEMATIC DURING THE DAY AS WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THE CAP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
CONSENSUS SFC-BASED CAPE INCREASES TO BETWEEN 2500 AND 3000 J/KG BUT
CIN REMAINS IN THE 150 TO 200 J/KG RANGE. NAM DOES SHOW AN ERODING
CAP TOWARDS THE 22Z-00Z TIME FRAME...BUT IT HAS DEW POINTS
APPROACHING 80F AND SB-CAPE APPROACHING 5000 J/KG. FOLLOWING LOWER
CONSENSUS TEMPS/DEW POINTS TRENDS TOWARD THE MORE CAPPED SOLUTION.

BULK SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KTS ACCOMPANIES MEAGER 500 MB HEIGHT
FALLS/MID-LEVEL COOLING AS SRN EDGE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH LEADS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED SEVERE
STORMS IF CAP IS BROKEN AS FRONT PASSES THROUGH.  WILL LIMIT POPS TO
MID-HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH LOW-MID 70S
DEW POINTS KEEP APPARENT TEMPERATURES BELOW HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINES
EXCEPT FOR A SMALL PORTION OF THE WESTERN CWA AROUND LONE ROCK. NOT
CONFIDENT IN HIGHS REACHING THE FORECAST IF CLOUDS REMAIN THICKER
THAN EXPECTED AND  TOO SMALL AN AREA FOR A HEADLINE. WILL CONTINUE
ISSUANCE OF SPS HIGHLIGHTING THE NEAR-ADVISORY WARMTH.

PRECIP CHANCES EXIT WITH FRONT LATE THIS EVENING WITH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MOVING IN. TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE LOWER 60S AND DEW
POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING DRY WEATHER AND AMPLE SUNSHINE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IT SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF VERY PLEASANT
DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S MOST PLACES. THREW IN SOME LOW POPS
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE HIGH HEADS EAST AND WARM
ADVECTION MAY KICK OFF A FEW STORMS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES
TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AT TIMES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS
STILL HAVE SOME DETAILS TO WORK OUT...SO LEFT CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.

IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT STILL WENT WITH SOME LOW POPS MONDAY AS MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING A WEAK WAVE. TEMPS SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER
AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...MARINE...BEACHES...THESE SECTIONS WILL BE
ADDED SHORTLY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...REM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DDV