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000
FXUS63 KMKX 190837
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
337 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT..FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH.

THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS SFC LOW OVER THE NAN HIGH
PLAINS WILL LIFT NEED INTO SRN CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD. A N-S
SFC TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS AND SLOWLY MOVE EDD WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS REACHING NW WI BY 12Z SUN. THE SLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
EDIFICATION. THE MOISTURE WITH PUS A LITTLE OVER ONE INCH WILL
NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE TNT OVER CENTRAL WI INCLUDING THE NW CWA.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE LIFT VIA LOW TO MID LEVEL  IS OVER CENTRAL
WI. THUS HAVE 20-40 POPS EARLY SUN AM OVER THE FAR NAN CWA. 925
MB TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS CELSIUS YIELDS HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI WITH 50S OVER ERN WI VIA THE COOL
BREEZE FROM LAKE MI.

.SUNDAS - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
850-700 MILLIBAR  BAND SETS UP ACROSS CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SRN
WI. UPPER FLOW TURNS MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THERE IS AT LEAST
ONE SHORTWAVE TO FURTHER ENHANCE VERTICAL MOTION. MODELS HAVE BEEN
PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING THE NW 2/3RDS OF THE CWA MOST
VULNERABLE TO THE SHRA ACTIVITY WITH THESE FEATURES. 925 TEMPS
RISE TO 13-16C...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN THE SRN CWA WHERE CLOUD
COVER MAY HAVE A SAY ON MAXING OUT FULL POTENTIAL...BUT SOME
INLAND LOW 70S SOUTH OF I-94 NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING BOUNDARY AND IS
EXPECTED TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REST OF SRN WI. AXIS
OF HIGHER 850 DEWS LEAN OVER INTO SRN WI AHEAD OF SFC/850 FRONTS.
SEVERAL OTHER VORTICITY MAXIMA RIDE IN ON THE SOUTHWEST FLOW.

.TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
ELONGATED SHEARED VORT AXIS SLIDES EAST BY AFTERNOON. APPROACHING
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY TAKES HOLD. 925 TEMPS WILL DROP TO 4-7C IN
THE CAA REGIME...SO A COOLER AND BREEZY DAY IN THE WORKS.

.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
COOL AIRMASS LINGERS WITH NE WINDFLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE. 925
TEMPS ACTUALLY TRY TO NUDGE BELOW 0C ON TUESDAY NIGHT ON THE
ECMWF. HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH SE LOW LEVEL FLOW. GFS
MORE AGGRESSIVE ON THE WAA PCPN INTO WI. GIVEN THE DRY FEED...PREFER
THE MORE RESTRAINED LOOK OF THE 00Z ECMWF..SO ONLY SLIGHT POPS IN
THE WEST MORE IN LINE WITH THE DRIER LOOK OF THE ECMWF.

.THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE ECMWF BRINGS IN A POTENT NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE TO SE
MN BY 00Z WHILE THE GFS AND GEM HAVE WEAKER AND MORE WESTWARD
PLACED SURFACE FEATURES. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE HIGHEST CWASP TO OUR
SOUTH WHILE THE GFS AND GEM BRING IT A BIT FURTHER NORTH. WHILE
STILL DIFFERENT IN STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT SYNOPTICALLY...BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A STRONG 850 JET AFFECTING THE AREA. IN FACT
THE MOISTURE RETURN SUGGESTS AN AXIS OF LOW TO MID 50 DEW POINTS
MAKING A SURGE INTO THE AREA WITH THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW.
HOWEVER LOWERING CONFIDENCE IS THE GEM WHICH SHOWS ALL PRECIP
STAYING ACROSS IA/MN AND NW WI THROUGH 00Z. FOR NOW WILL LEAN
WITH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOWING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS PERIOD.

.FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY SHIFTS EAST WITH GENERAL COLD ADVECTION
REGIME. ALOFT...THE ECMWF HAS THE POTENT 500 MILLIBAR CIRCULATION
IN ERN WI AT 12Z WHILE THE GFS HAS IT BACK IN MN. SUBSTANTIAL
DIFFERENCES IN 925 THERMAL FIELDS BUT BOTH MODELS SHOWING SHRA
ACTIVITY WITH THE LOWER LEVEL TROUGH AXES ORIENTED EAST/WEST
ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO THE EAST OF WI DURG
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. SELY TO SOUTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH DRY
AIR IN PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY
BUT WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TNT WHICH WILL
ALLOW WAVES TO APPROACH 4 FEET IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF SHEBOYGAN
COUNTY LATE TNT AND SUN AM. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME BUT BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF THE
MARINE CONDITIONS AND FORECAST.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...COLLAR