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000
FXUS63 KMKX 120835
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
335 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH.

STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FROM SYSTEM PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH
WILL ONLY GRAZE FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  ALREADY
AREA OF LIGHT DBZ DECREASING OVER SOUTHEAST WI.  EXPECT -SN IN THE
AREA FROM BELOIT TO RACINE AND KENOSHA TO DIMINISH THROUGH 11Z WITH
LITTLE ACCUMULATION.  PERHAPS A HALF INCH IN PLEASANT PRAIRIE.  OTRW
INVERTED TROUGH PASSING ACROSS WESTERN CWA THIS MORNING ALONG WITH
PASSING WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE WL SHAKE OUT A FEW FLURRIES OR AN
ISOLATED -SHSN.  INCREASING NORTH WINDS WL CONTINUE TO PULL COLDER
AND DRIER AIR INTO SOUTHERN WI THROUGH THE DAY...SO MANY AREAS WILL
EXPERIENCE DAYTIME HIGHS THIS MRNG WITH STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS MUCH
OF THE DAY.

LAKE EFFECT THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL THIS MORNING.  DELTA-T INCREASES
TO 12 TO 14 DEGREES AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH.  HENCE WL
ONLY MENTION FLURRIES FOR A COUPLE HOURS.

EXPECT DECREASING CLOUD TREND LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS
WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRIER AIR SETTLES INTO SOUTHERN WI.  LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR A TIME THIS EVENING
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS OVERNIGHT BEFORE MID-HIGH CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM WARM AIR
ADVECTION SPREADS IN LATER IN THE NIGHT.  STRONG WAA REMAINS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF CWA AND COLUMN MOISTURE REMAINS SPARSE LATE TONIGHT.
HENCE TRIMMED BACK SCHC POPS TO VERY LATE IN THE FAR WEST.

.THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER FLOW BECOMES BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC WITH DECENT WARM
ADVECTION SETTING UP. 12Z ECMWF MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH 925 TEMPS
WARMING BACK ABV 0C...WHILE THE 00Z NAM AND GFS SHOWING AOB
0C...BUT THESE WARMER TEMPS DO NOT ARRIVE UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z.
WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND BUFKIT SUGGESTED LIMITED MIXING WILL
NOT BOOST DAYTIME MAXES AS HIGH AS 925 TECHNIQUE SUGGESTS. MODELS
SHOWING VARIATION SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO QPF FIELDS...WITH 12Z
ECMWF DRY WHILE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING SPOTTY LIGHT QPF. BUFKIT
FOR BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MOISTENING WITHIN THE COLUMN. NOT
SEEING DRAMATIC SATURATION ON THE ISENTROPIC CHARTS THOUGH SOME
ADIABATIC OMEGA CLEARLY AT PLAY WITH THIS WAA REGIME IN PLACE.
WILL KEEP SMALL POPS IN PLACE. FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF WARMER
AIR ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT. MOS AND VARIOUS OTHER TEMP PROGS SHOW
RISING TEMPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THERMAL RIDGE IN PLACE AT 12Z. WITH 850 FRONT PASSING THROUGH
COLD ADVECTION WILL GET UNDERWAY. HOWEVER AIRMASS WILL STILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST MID 40S GIVEN DECENT MIXING AND FAIR AMOUNT
OF SUNSHINE. SHORTWAVE RIDES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY BETTER FOCUSED IN NRN WI THOUGH 12Z ECMWF STILL PUNCHES
VORT MAX INTO SRN WI ARND 18Z. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE RH AND QPF
FIELDS OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND GEM AND KEEP THE BEST MOISTURE/LIFT TO
OUR NORTH AND HAVE SILENT POPS IN SRN WI.

.SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
CYCLONIC 500 MILLIBAR FLOW. LOW LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE AS WELL.
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR. TIMING OF WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NE WILL BE A KEY. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE LATER
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING WE WILL START SEEING AN ONSHORE
COMPONENT. SO POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SHSN LATER SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH FAVORABLE ONSHORE FLOW. 850 TEMPS DROP
OFF INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS CELSIUS...RESULTING IN A FAVORABLE
DELTA T.

.SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE/850 HIGH IN PLACE. HOWEVER UPPER FLOW IS CYCLONIC. ECMWF
SHOWS A BETTER SHORTWAVE SOUTHWEST OF WI KEEPING PRECIP JUST
SOUTH. WILL BE A CLOSE CALL. ALLBLEND TRENDING WITH THE DRY LOOK.
LOOKS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

.MONDAY AND TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING DIFFERENT SCENARIOS THIS PERIOD. GFS SHOWS
DECENT WAA WITH DRY WX FOR MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF STARTS SETTING
UP AN ISENTROPIC EVENT WITH MORE OF A GRADUAL REGIME WITH A WETTER
BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP. THESE DIFFERENCES ARE MAINTAINED INTO
TUESDAY WITH THE GFS SHOWING A DRY AND MILD NW LOW LEVEL FLOW.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WITH A SIGGY
ISENTROPIC PRECIP. THE 00Z GEM DOES FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THE
ALLBLEND FIELDS ACCOUNT FOR THE WETTER SOLUTIONS OF THE GEM/ECMWF.
SEE NO REASON TO TWEEK THE ALLBLEND POPS AND TEMPS AT THIS TIME
GIVEN THE LARGE DISPARITY IN SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...-SN WL END AT KENW SHORTLY AS SYNOPTIC LIFT
FROM SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH EXITS THE FAR SOUTHEAST.  FLURRIES AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF -SHSN WL STICK AROUND FOR A TIME THIS MRNG AS UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND INVERTED TROUGH PASS THROUGH THE AREA.  OTRW
EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO TRANSITION TO VFR DURING THE DAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING LAST FEW HOURS AFTER INVERTED
TROF PASSAGE TO THE WEST.  WINDS NOT GUSTING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
AROUND 30.  EXPECT SLIGHT FURTHER TIGHTENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
AS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN IN MOVES EAST THROUGH OH VALLEY.
HENCE WL CONTINUE GALE WARNING FOR POTENTIAL GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS THIS
MORNING.  WINDS AND WAVES LIKELY TO REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR