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000
FXUS63 KMKX 040223
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
823 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...

CURRENT TIMING OF COLD FRONT BRINGS IT INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA AROUND 9 PM...PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL SECTIONS BETWEEN 10PM
AND 11 PM...AND CLEARING LAKESHORE LOCATIONS BETWEEN 1 AM IN THE
NORTH AND 2 AM IN THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES FALL OFF RAPIDLY INTO
THE TEENS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SINGLE DIGIT LOWS EXPECTED
TOWARDS DAWN.

WILD CARD IN ALL THIS IS THE CLOUD COVER. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
BACK EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS TRENDING SOUTHEAST WITH SURFACE COLD
FRONT...HOWEVER MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING ALONG THE AXIS
AND SOUTH OF A 170 KT JET MAX COVER FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THESE
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH WITH THE JET MAX PER UPPER LEVEL RH
FORECASTS...SO SHOULD SEE CLEARING OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY
THE FAR SOUTHEAST. WIND CHILL VALUES TOWARD DAWN WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIP TO BETWEEN -5 AND -10 AS STEEPENING LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND COLD FRONT ALLOW
MIXING UP TO 20-25 KT WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

UPSTREAM OBS SHOW BACK EDGE OF MVFR CLOUD DECK IS TRACKING
SOUTHEAST WITH COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD CLEAR KMSN AROUND
05Z...KUES AROUND 07Z...KMKE AND KENW BETWEEN 08Z AND 0830Z.
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP NW
WINDS GUSTY OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

A RELATIVE LULL IN THE WINDS WITH PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...BUT
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BEHIND FRONT WHICH WILL REACH THE NEARSHORE
WATERS BETWEEN 07Z AND 08Z. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL ALLOW MIXING UP TO 25-26 KNOT WINDS AROUND 900 FT
ON RAP SOUNDINGS...WITH 18Z NAM SOUNDINGS SHOWING FREQUENT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THEN
SLOWLY EASING. NO CHANGE TO TIMING OF ONGOING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

DRIER AIR WORKED ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THE AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE DIMINISHED. THUS...
CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY A LITTLE EARLY. INCREASING
WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT. STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SKY COVER IS THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY FOR THE NIGHT. THERE IS A LOT OF
DRY AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN WI
OVERNIGHT... BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE SOME STRATOCUMULUS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT. CLOUDS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEARED OUT BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH AROUND 8 AM AND THEN ONLY
RISE INTO THE MID TEENS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD BY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE
RIDGE AXIS IS STILL UPSTREAM WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO ALTHOUGH IT WILL
BE QUITE COLD...IT WILL BE COLDER TO THE WEST...UNDER THE RIDGE.
WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO 15 TO 20 BELOW...PROBABLY NOT LOW ENOUGH
FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE RIDGE SLIDES SOUTHEAST WHILE A TROF APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE TROF WILL BE DRY AS IT MOVES THROUGH A VERY DRY
AIRMASS ON FRIDAY. LOW TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE EVENING
AS AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE EXITING
RIDGE WILL BRING IN WARM AIR ADVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHS
FRIDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE 30S.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS THIS WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY WITH RIDING LIKELY
DOMINATING. ANOTHER TROF APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY.
IT/S A BIT STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND MAY BE ABLE TO
SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW. SO SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ON
SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

THE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS MILD AND ON THE QUIET
SIDE. THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INCLUDES HIGHS IN THE 40S. SOME OF
OUR LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS QUITE A RANGE. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS
SOME HIGHS LATER NEXT WEEK HITTING THE 50S...WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH
MORE RESERVED...STICKING WITH 30S AND 4OS. WILL TAKE THE
COMPROMISE APPROACH FOR NOW. IT/S A LONG WAY OFF. BUT...ITS THE
TIME OF YEAR FOR BIG TEMP SWINGS.

AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTHERN WI THROUGH LATE EVENING UNTIL
THE MAIN COLD FRONT ARRIVES. LOOK FOR GUSTY WNW WINDS AND SCATTERED
TO BROKEN MVFR CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...

LOOK FOR INCREASING WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HIGH WAVES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...DAVIS