Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 281519
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1019 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Overcast clouds today will become scattered to broken this afternoon
as drier air moves into the region. Highs expected in the lower 70s,
but cooler lakeside.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
Back edge of MVFR ceilings continues to move south although these
ceilings may linger in southwest and far southern WI. Scattered to
broken cumulus around 3 to 4 K FT is expected for this afternoon.
MVFR ceilings coming in from Lake Michigan may linger into the
early afternoon in southeast WI.

&&

.MARINE...
North to northeast winds between 10 and 20 knots are
expected for much of the day, causing wave heights of 3 to 5 feet.
Winds and waves will start to come down in the late afternoon and
early evening as high pressure approaches the region. Will continue
the small craft advisory through 0Z (7pm) for the northern zones and
3Z (10pm) for the southern zones, although the southern zones may
need to canceled earlier.

&&

.BEACHES...
Breezy north to northeast winds will cause waves of 3 to
5 feet at beaches along Lake Michigan from Sheboygan south to
Kenosha today. This will result in a high swim risk, especially
along break waters and jetties where rip and structural currents
will be more susceptible. The Beach Hazard Statement remains in
effect for all 5 lakeshore counties emphasizing high swim risk for
today, lingering into this evening for Milwaukee beaches south to
Kenosha. Cooler conditions are expected today with high temperatures
holding in the 60s to around 70. This is the first high swim risk of
the season at these beaches so beach managers will need to be extra
cautious.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 328 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is High.

Scattered light showers associated with passing mid-level low
pressure trof not showing up on radar last hour or so. A few
sprinkles may yet be shaken out of the low clouds over lakeshore
areas thru 10z. Trof will be exiting the region by 12z, ending the
sprinkle threat.

Low level cold air advection in its wake producing area of low
clouds over central into northwest WI that have been advancing
southward, mainly in eastern WI where cold air surge is stronger.
Already, drier air and subsidence overwhelming thinning relative
humidity and clouds across northeast WI into Upper Michigan. This
back edge of the clouds has been progressing steadily southward,
so expect most areas to see some sunshine this morning.

Lingering thermal trof and cold temperatures aloft wl allow some
cu redevelopment later this morning, especially across eastern
half of CWA, before low levels further dry during the aftn. By
mid- late afternoon, only few-sct cu are expected. Clear skies are
then expected tonight. Light winds and cooler temperatures will
result in a pleasant night, with overnight temperatures falling
into the upper 40s to middle 50s. Some patchy late night fog is
likely in susceptible low areas and river valleys.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Models are in pretty good agreement with high pressure over the
region Wednesday sliding southeast Wednesday night. The high
should provide quiet weather with some diurnal cumulus Wednesday.
Seasonable temperatures in the upper 70s inland are expected, with
cooler readings with lake breeze near Lake Michigan.

NAM has a convective feedback issue with blob of QPF sliding east
northeast across the northern portions of the forecast area later
Wednesday night into Thursday. Continued to bring in low pops in
the west later Wednesday night for collaboration with neighbors,
but think this period could end up dry. Any forcing for upward
vertical motion remains west and northwest of the area.

Models then bring cold front southeastward through the area later
Thursday into Thursday night. This is accompanied by a passing 500
mb shortwave trough Thursday night. Area forecast soundings
suggest modest mean layer CAPE after adjusting dew points
downward, perhaps around 500 J/kg. Deep layer bulk shear is better
on the GFS than the NAM. Upward vertical motion fields are decent
but not robust. Not expecting any severe weather at this time with
the weak CAPE and uncertainty over the deep layer bulk shear
values.

Kept mainly higher end chance pops across the area for showers
and storms, highest in the far north and northeast. Highs should
reach the upper 70s across most of the area Thursday, with
southwest winds.

FRIDAY THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

GFS/ECMWF suggest west northwest flow will remain over the region
at 500 mb for this period. High pressure at the surface is
expected to slowly shift eastward across and east of the region.
This should provide for quiet weather Friday into Sunday across
the area. Mild temperatures are expected each day inland, with
cooler readings near Lake Michigan. All in all, it looks like a
very nice start to the upcoming holiday weekend.

There is some disagreement with the models regarding Independence
Day. It appears that the GFS is painting more of the area with
light QPF and no real support for it. The ECMWF is dry during this
time. For now, kept lower end pops in the forecast for
Independence Day, but may end up being dry.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

Expect a period of MVFR cigs over eastern areas this morning, as
low level cold air continues to filter into the area. Cigs may
remain low VFR at KMSN. Back edge of clouds progressing steadily
southward across northern WI, so expect clearing later this
morning.

Some cu redevelopment is expected later this morning, possibly
returning to MVFR cigs for 1-2 hours or so, before drier air
erodes cu or cigs lift to VFR. VFR conditions expected later in
the day into tonight. Some patchy late night fog is possible in
susceptible low areas, however will not introduce in TAFs at this
point.

MARINE...

North to northeast winds between 10 and 20 knots are expected for
much of the day, causing wave heights of 3 to 5 feet. Winds and
waves will start to come down in the late afternoon and early
evening. Hence wl continue Small Craft Advisory through 00Z and
extend the southern marine zones until 03Z.

BEACHES...

Breezy north to northeast winds will cause waves of 3 to 5 feet
at beaches along Lake Michigan from Sheboygan south to Kenosha
today. This will result in a high swim risk, especially along
break waters and jetties, where rip and structural currents will
be more susceptible.

Hence will issue Beach Hazard Statement for all 5 lakeshore
counties, emphasizing high swim risk for today, lingering into
this evening for Milwaukee beaches south to Kenosha. Cooler
conditions are expected today as well, with high temperatures
holding in the 60s to around 70. This is the first high swim risk
of the season at these beaches, so beach managers will need to be
extra cautious.

&&

.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT until 10 PM CDT this evening for WIZ066-
     071-072.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT until 7 PM CDT this evening for WIZ052-
     060.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 10 PM CDT this evening for LMZ645-646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening for LMZ643-644.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Marquardt
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
Wednesday THROUGH Monday...Wood


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