Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
000
FXUS63 KMKX 190858
AFDMKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
358 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- After a milder day today, a colder airmass will return to the
area for the remainder of the week.
- Snow accumulations are likely (70-90% chance) late Thursday
into Friday. This system may impact the Friday morning
commute.
- Confidence is increasing in a prolonged period of wet weather
later Sunday through Tuesday. A lot of uncertainty remains
with timing, amounts, and initial precip type.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued 358 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Today through Wednesday:
Milder temperatures will prevail today ahead of a cold front, as
low pressure passes by just to the north of Lake Michigan.
Southwest winds gusting to 35 mph this morning will become
northwest by this afternoon. Mid and high level clouds may
linger much of the day, with some afternoon cumulus also
possible. Despite the clouds, temps are still expected to reach
the 50 degree mark most places this afternoon.
Temps will turn colder for tonight and Wednesday behind the cold
front. Plenty of sunshine is expected Wednesday as high pressure
begins to move into the area, though temperatures will struggle
into the low and mid 30s for highs. Lingering breezy northwest
winds will add an extra chill to the air.
DDV
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued 358 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Thursday through Monday:
Confidence is high (70-90%) in widespread accumulating snowfall
for southern Wisconsin late Thursday through at least Friday
morning, as a shortwave moves through the region. The big
question with this system is the track of the stronger
frontogenetic forcing. Models still vary a bit with the
placement of the strong frontogenesis, ranging from along/just
north of the northern forecast area border to along the WI/IL
state line. Locally higher amounts are expected with the
stronger forcing, but it`s too early to pin down totals,
especially where these higher amounts may wind up. Given that
this system has slowed down a bit, confidence is increasing that
accumulating snowfall will impact the Friday morning commute,
especially where any banded snowfall sets up due to the stronger
forcing.
High pressure will bring quiet weather to southern Wisconsin on
Saturday, though it will remain chilly. Went with high temps
toward the colder end of guidance given the possibility of snow
on the ground this weekend.
Attention then turns to the next system that may bring a
prolonged period of wet weather to the area early next week.
Though models eventually bring the low far enough north for
mainly rain, there still remains a possibility for some snow
accumulations as the precip moves in later Sunday into Sunday
night. Models are showing precipitable water values up around an
inch Monday and Tuesday as the low slowly moves through the
area. Given prolonged forcing and plenty of moisture, could see
decent rain totals by the time this system pulls away Tuesday
night. Still plenty of time for the details of this system to
change given it is a few days out though, so keep up with the
latest forecast.
DDV
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued 358 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Areas of mid and high level clouds will continue to push through
today. Model soundings suggest there could be a period of
cumulus this afternoon, with ceilings down to around 5 kft.
Clouds will eventually decrease in coverage by this evening,
with skies becoming mostly clear overnight.
Low level wind shear will remain a concern through early this
morning, with the stronger winds then mixing down to the surface
for the remainder of the day. Southwest winds gusting to 30
knots this morning will become northwest by the afternoon behind
a cold front. Winds will ease a bit this evening and overnight,
though gust to 20 knots are still expected at times.
DDV
&&
.MARINE...
Issued 358 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Gusty southwest winds are expected early today, becoming west
to northwest later today as low pressure passes by just to the
north of Lake Michigan. A period of gale force winds is still
expected this morning in the south ahead of the cold front.
Expanded the area of the Gale Warning northward a row of zones
given latest model guidance. Winds could then briefly reach
gale force in the north late tonight into early Wednesday behind
the front. Though there might be a brief lull in the winds
later today into early tonight, decided to extend the Small
Craft Advisory through Wednesday morning due to the breezy
northwest winds behind the front.
Winds will diminish later Wednesday into Thursday as high
pressure of 30.4 inches moves into the area. East to southeast
winds will then pick up late in the week ahead of an approaching
low.
DDV
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 until 1 PM Tuesday.
Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 1 PM
Wednesday.
&&
$$
Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee
Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee