Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 250902
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
302 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

.SHORT TERM...

Today And Tonight...Forecast Confidence Is High.

Precipitation has cleared the area as of 2 AM, with increasing
westerly winds behind the front. Expect widespread gusts of
between 30 and 40 MPH through the afternoon, with a few gusts to
45 MPH across the far eastern forecast area, where a Wind Advisory
remains in effect until 3 PM.

Post-frontal stratus should clear fairly rapidly over the next
few hours, given strong subsidence behind a departing shortwave.
Most of today should feature partly to mostly sunny skies.

Temperatures will top out in the mid 30s today, but given the
wind, it will feel considerably cooler.

Winds should settle down quite a bit after sunset, though will
remain steady into the overnight hours. There will be some fog
potential overnight tonight, especially across far southern
Wisconsin, where winds will be lightest. Right now, winds and T/Td
spreads seem a little marginal, so it`s possible that fog ends up
being most prevalent in protected areas like river valleys. Lows
tonight will range from the low 20s north and west to around 30
near the lake.

Monday Through Tuesday Night...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Models are in pretty good agreement with showing warm air
advection developing on south southwest winds Monday into Tuesday
across the area. Sunshine during each day should help bring
warming temperatures into the area. Combination of 925 mb and 2
meter temperatures from models suggest highs into the middle to
upper 40s Monday, and the lower to middle 50s Tuesday. Could get a
little warmer each day as well.

Models then show a weak inverted trough or cold front sliding
eastward through the area late Tuesday into Tuesday night. There
is an 850 mb trough that slides east through the area as well,
with a southwesterly low level jet pointing into the area. Low
level frontogenesis response also crosses the area with the front.
Forecast soundings are not showing a deep layer of moisture,
which is a limiting factor. Continued with the lower end PoPs for
rain mainly Tuesday night.

Temperatures may fall to freezing or below in far northwestern
portions of the area later Tuesday night, with a lack of ice
crystals. This may allow for light freezing rain there. It would
be on the back edge, so not concerned about it too much at this
time.

.LONG TERM...

Wednesday Through Saturday...Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Lowered highs quite a bit on Wednesday, as easterly flow in the
low levels is expected. This should bring cooler temperatures
into the area. Lowered highs into the lower to middle 40s after
coordination with neighboring offices.

Models are in better agreement with low pressure undergoing
cyclogenesis as is shifts northeast toward central Illinois
Wednesday night, then sliding to the east on Thursday and
Thursday night. They all have a strong shortwave trough at 500 mb
that becomes more of a closed 500 mb low during this time. The GFS
is the furthest north with these features, with the Canadian a bit
further south, and the ECMWF furthest south. Despite these
differences, it looks to bring deep moisture and pretty good
upward vertical motion with it.

Forecast soundings look to be supportive of mainly rain for
Wednesday night into Thursday across the area. However, there
could be some rain and snow mix in the north Wednesday night into
early Thursday, where wet bulb profiles are more supportive.
Tight pressure gradient will also bring windy conditions to the
area during this time.

There should be a good amount of rain from this system, on the
order of 0.75 to 1.10 inches. This may bring another round of
river and lowland flooding, and will need to be watched closely as
this period draws closer.

Passing high pressure to the north should bring quiet weather for
the end of the week and into Saturday. Temperatures look to remain
near or a little above seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION(09Z TAFS)...

MVFR stratus will continue for a few more hours, before
scattering out. Main concern will be winds, with westerly gusts
between 25 and 35 KT expected to be rather widespread through the
day today. Near the lake, including KMKE and KENW, gusts to near
40 kt will be possible.

Winds will remain steady, but decrease considerably, after sunset
tonight.

&&

.MARINE...

West winds will gust to gale force this morning and afternoon,
diminishing this evening and tonight. Winds will be westerly
today, before becoming southwesterly and then southerly by
Monday.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for WIZ051-052-059-
     060-066-071-072.

LM...Gale Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Boxell
Monday through Saturday...Wood



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