Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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373
FXUS63 KMKX 232033
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
333 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...

The cold front moved through southeast WI early this afternoon
and temperatures dropped over 20 degrees in 20 minutes. That front
that raced down Lake Michigan will gradually traverse inland
through the early evening hours.

Temperatures will be quite chilly tonight with the dry air in
place... upper 30s to lower 40s. Can`t rule out some patchy frost
in low spots due to light winds and good radiational cooling.

Another warm and dry day is on tap for Monday, inland from the
lake. A steady southeast breeze will keep lakeshore temps from
rising above 60. Inland temps will approach 70 with the gusty
southeast winds.

.LONG TERM...

Warm conditions will continue Tuesday and even into Wednesday for
far southeast Wisconsin. Southerly flow ahead of an approaching
low will keep us mild. Dry air in the low levels and the slowing
system will help to keep showers out of our area until Tuesday
night. The associated cold front is not expected to swing through
southeast WI until Wed afternoon or event Thu morning, depending
on the model.

Models are showing some elevated instability in the warm sector of
this slow-moving system, so kept thunder chances in the forecast
for Tue night through Wed.

Thursday and Friday highs will only be in the 50s with weak high
pressure overhead. The next system will arrive Friday night and
likely hang around through the weekend. This one has the potential
to bring a lot of rain to southern WI, so stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

Abrupt wind shift to the northeast with the passage of a cold
front this afternoon. The location of the front is apparent on
radar. VFR conditions through the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...

Gusty northeast winds will diminish this evening, then remain
light out of the east through mid Monday morning. Steady easterly
winds will build higher waves for Monday and Tuesday, but waves
and wind gusts are expected to remain just below small craft
advisory criteria.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Near critical fire weather conditions are forecast for tomorrow
(Monday). No headline is expected since conditions will be just
under the critical level.

Dewpoints are expected to mix out into the lower 30s once again on
Monday, so minimum relative humidity values will be in the 20 to
30 percent range inland. Breezy southeast winds with gusts in the
20 to 30 mph range are of concern. The fuels are quite dry, but
the Fine Fuel Moisture Code is only forecast to be around 90 which
is not quite meeting criteria for headlines. Highs on Monday will
be in the upper 60s to around 70, also below headline thresholds.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Tonight/Monday and Aviation/Marine...Cronce
Monday Night through Sunday...Cronce



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