National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 310433 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1033 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...

QUIET TONIGHT. OBVIOUSLY SPENDING MOST OF THE EVENING LOOKING AT
SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY NIGHT EVENT. SREF KEEPS TRENDING UP ON
AMOUNTS...AND ASSOCIATED PLUMES HAVE MEAN AMOUNTS IN THE 8-10"
RANGE ALONG THE ILLINOIS BORDER. THERE ARE LESS AND LESS MEMBERS
BELOW 6" NOW.  00Z NAM IS IN AGREEMENT WITH SIMILAR AMOUNTS. WFO
DVN ADDED COUNTIES UP TO THE WI BORDER...WHICH LOOKS GOOD. IN
COORDINATION WITH DVN...LOT...WPC WWD...DECIDED TO KEEP WATCH AS
IS.

SREF AND WPC SNOW PROBABILITY OF 8" IS STILL IN THE 30-40%
RANGE...AND THIS WILL BE A NEARLY 24 HOUR DURATION SNOW. SO LOOKS
LIKE A 6-8" ADVISORY EVENT BEING OVER THE WEEKEND AND LOWER
IMPACT. HAVE A FEW CONCERNS THE LOWER MY CONFIDENCE IN NEEDING A
WATCH. EVEN THOUGH THE NAM SHOWS LOTS OF QPF AND SNOW...THE
QUALITY OF THE LIFT IS QUESTIONABLE. TIME SECTIONS SHOW LONG
PERIODS OF LIFT IN THE 1-3 MICROBAR/SECOND RANGE...NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE. IN ADDITION...EXPERIENCE WITH THESE EVENTS ON THE
NORTHERN FRINGE IS THAT THERE TENDS TO BE A STRONGER WEST TO EAST
GRADIENT IN THE OBSERVED SNOWS BETWEEN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN DUE TO THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND COASTAL CONVERGENCE. SO
THE LAKE SHORE SHOULD DO WELL...BUT AREAS LIKE MONROE AND
JANESVILLE HAVE OFTEN UNDERACHIEVED.

CIPS ANALOGS HAVE 50TH PERCENTILE AROUND 4" OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE
EFFECT IN SOUTHEAST AND EVEN THE 75TH PERCENTILE IS ONLY
6"...WHICH CONFIRMS THAT THE GOING FORECAST WHICH IS MORE
CONSERVATIVE THAN THE NEW GUIDANCE IS PROBABLY THE BEST ROUTE.
ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE GSD REFORECAST GEFS MEAN QPF
TENDS TO BE TOO HIGH IN THESE SITUATIONS BY AT LEAST 0.10". ALL
REASONS TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...

WILL BE RATHER QUITE MOST OF THE PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SNOW WILL DEVELOP AS WELL. LOOKS
LIKE ABOUT 0.5" ACCUMULATION BY 06Z AND THEN ABOUT 2" BY 12Z FOR
KMKE. LIFR CONDITIONS ARE A HIGH PROBABILITY...AND CIPS ANALOGS
CURRENTLY SHOW 60%+.

&&

.MARINE...

SIGNIFICANT WAVE EVENT ON THE WAY WITH WAVE WATCH 3 GENERATING 6
TO 10 FOOT WAVES BY SUNDAY. COLD EVENT WITH SNOW AND NORTHEAST GUSTS
TO 30 KNOTS SUGGESTS FREEZING SPRAY AND MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH IN LATER FORECASTS. LONG DURATION EVENT
AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED...MOSTLY LIKELY ISSUED ON
NEXT SHIFT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
     NIGHT FOR WIZ066-071-072.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CRAVEN

National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office