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000
FXUS64 KBMX 190458
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1158 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WILL MAKE JUST A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT. ASIDE FROM THE USUAL TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT
TWEAKS...WILL ALSO BUMP UP POPS JUST A BIT IN A SMALL ZONE DOWN
AROUND MGM (MAINLY DUE TO THE ONGOING SHOWERS DOWN THERE). THE
CURRENT AREA OF LIKELY POPS IN THE NORTHEAST LOOKS FINE...AS THERE
ARE SOME SHOWERS TRYING TO "PERCOLATE" UP THERE. GIVEN THE SCALE
OF THE PRECIPITATION LAST NIGHT...I THINK IT IS CERTAINLY PRUDENT
TO MAINTAIN THE PRESENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS WELL. WILL HAVE
UPDATED FORECASTS OUT SOON.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERNIGHT TAFS WITH MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS AT THE CURRENT HOUR. EXPECTING THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO
MOISTEN WITH MVFR CIGS AND VIS FORMING BEFORE DAYBREAK...AND SOME
POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS IN THE NORTH AND EAST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT KANB THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS...BUT THIS POTENTIAL REMAINS UNCLEAR. IMPROVING CIGS
AND VIS SHOULD OCCUR BY 14Z AT ALL SITES.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     65  83  66  90  67 /  70  60  20  10  10
ANNISTON    65  83  65  89  67 /  70  70  30  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  66  85  66  89  67 /  50  30  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  67  87  66  89  66 /  20  10  10  10  10
CALERA      66  85  66  89  67 /  30  20  10  10  10
AUBURN      64  84  65  88  68 /  40  50  30  10  10
MONTGOMERY  66  87  66  91  67 /  20  20  10  10  10
TROY        65  87  66  91  66 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: BLOUNT...BULLOCK...CALHOUN...CHAMBERS...CHEROKEE...
CLAY...CLEBURNE...COOSA...ELMORE...ETOWAH...JEFFERSON...LEE...
MACON...MONTGOMERY...RANDOLPH...RUSSELL...SHELBY...ST. CLAIR...
TALLADEGA...TALLAPOOSA.

&&

$$

61/87