Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 201355
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
955 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
While low-level flow has become more easterly today, the
atmosphere remains rather dry, with PWAT below 1.8 inches. In
addition, upper low spinning over the northeastern Gulf will help
to supress convection a bit today as well. Therefore, expect dry
conditions for much of the forecast area. Exception may be the
eastern Big Bend, where easterly flow and approach of tropical
wave by late in the day may push some showers and thunderstorms
into the region. Temperatures will remain hot, with highs in the
mid 90s.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [652 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

TUTT low will continue to move westward towards the upper Texas
coast by late Tuesday. East to west mid level ridging will build
across the southeast US into the mid south. Deep east to southeast
flow will advect tropical moisture into the southeast and
overspreading the region this period. Column moisture and PWATs
will increase leading to near normal (40-50%) chances for
rainfall for mid August especially in the afternoon and early
evening hours. High temperatures will be more towards the low 90s
with anticipated cloud cover and rainfall Monday/Tuesday.


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

Ridging shifts towards the Gulf coast in response to a deepening
and digging east US trough. This trough will support a front that
will make a run at the southeast towards the end of the work week
and into next weekend. Increasing rain chances is expected with
favorable moisture levels and mid/upper level support. 50-60%
chance for rainfall is expected each afternoon Thursday through
Sunday. Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.


.AVIATION [Through 12Z Monday]...

IFR conditions currently being observed at VLD at this hour.
Expect vsby and CIGS to improve within a few hours after sunrise.
Otherwise, VFR conditions expected through the period at all TAF
sites. Light southeasterly winds will prevail today, with a chance
of iso to sct TSRA developing around VLD this afternoon.


.MARINE...

Generally light winds will continue through the period resulting
in low seas. Isolated showers and storms are possible each day,
especially in the overnight hours.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Outside of marginally low dispersions across the Big Bend of Florida
this afternoon, hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected
through the next week.


.HYDROLOGY...

Only isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected through
Sunday. Rain chances will increase to near normal levels on Monday
through Wednesday, when some localized flooding in urban areas
would be possible with the strongest storms. However, coverage
will not be sufficient to result in any river flooding.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   95  75  92  75  92 /  20  20  50  20  30
Panama City   93  78  90  77  89 /  20  20  40  20  30
Dothan        96  75  93  74  90 /  10  10  50  20  30
Albany        96  75  93  74  92 /  10  10  40  20  30
Valdosta      95  74  91  73  92 /  50  30  40  20  30
Cross City    95  74  91  74  92 /  40  30  40  20  10
Apalachicola  91  77  90  77  89 /  10  30  30  30  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Coastal Gulf.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Camp
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM...Scholl
AVIATION...Pullin
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Pullin
HYDROLOGY...Godsey


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