Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KTAE 291034
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
634 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY] THE FOG THAT HAD DEVELOPED EARLIER IN THE
MORNING AT ECP HAS SINCE DISSIPATED. BARRING BRIEF REDEVELOPMENT
IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [429 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE FAR
WESTERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA, WEST OF A DHN-PAM LINE. AS OF
RIGHT NOW, IT APPEARS AS THOUGH ANY DENSE FOG WOULD BE RATHER
ISOLATED. HOWEVER, THERE IS ENOUGH FOG BEING REPORTED BY
OBSERVATIONS THAT "PATCHY FOG" WORDING WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST
THROUGH 13Z IN THOSE AREAS.

OTHERWISE, DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE WORKING INTO OUR AREA. THE 00Z
TALLAHASSEE SOUNDING HAD A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.26". IN
COMBINATION WITH DEEP RIDGING, THE DRY AIR SHOULD SUPPRESS
CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. MORE SUBSTANTIAL
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN THE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA (AS SUGGESTED BY THE EARLY MORNING FOG), HOWEVER,
AND THAT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ISOLATED STORMS. THE POPS
(20-30%) HAPPEN TO COINCIDE WITH THE SAME LOCATIONS THAT FOG IS
BEING REPORTED EARLY THIS MORNING - WEST OF A DHN-PAM LINE.
OTHERWISE, A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 80S WEST TO THE LOWER 90S EAST.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...

AN UPPER LEVEL +PV ANOMALY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BECOME
CUT OFF AND DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD, DRAGGING A WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH IT. LOWER LEVEL WINDS FROM THE EAST TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE EAST COAST SEABREEZE
PATTERN WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN IN OUR FL BIG BEND AND
SOUTH CENTRAL GA COUNTIES. AS THE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES OUR
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY, POPS WILL INCREASE FOR OUR SOUTHEAST AL
COUNTIES FOR STORMS OUT AHEAD OF IT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S
AND HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S.


.LONG TERM [SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...

ONCE THE +PV ANOMALY BECOMES CUT OFF, THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO STALL. WITH THE STALLED FRONT IN PLACE, WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH, ALLOWING THE AFTERNOON SEA-BREEZE FRONT
ACROSS N FL TO BECOME ACTIVE AGAIN AND KEEPING POPS GENERALLY IN THE
30-40% RANGE IN THE AFTERNOONS THROUGH THURSDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 AND HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW
90S.


.MARINE...

WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER EASTERLY WINDS AT NIGHT AND ONSHORE WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOONS.


.FIRE WEATHER...

DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY AND SATURDAY,
BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE RED FLAG THRESHOLDS.
HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST.


.HYDROLOGY...

OUR AREA RIVERS ARE SEEING GRADUAL RISES FROM RECENT RAINFALL AND
UPSTREAM RAINFALL. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE
LIGHT, AROUND 1.5" OR LESS. WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT FORECAST
TO COME FROM THE GRADUAL RISES OR UPCOMING RAIN, ALTHOUGH THE
CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER NEAR BRUCE IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO ACTION
STAGE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   92  67  93  69  91 /   0   0  10  10  20
PANAMA CITY   84  71  86  71  86 /  20   0  10  10  20
DOTHAN        89  66  91  68  91 /   0   0   0  10  30
ALBANY        91  67  91  68  91 /   0   0  10  10  20
VALDOSTA      91  66  92  69  91 /   0   0  30  10  20
CROSS CITY    91  67  91  68  91 /   0   0  30  20  20
APALACHICOLA  90  72  87  72  87 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...MOORE


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