Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 301716
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
116 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Monday]...

Extensive CU field currently across the area with cigs roughly
025-040 across the TAF sites. Breezy winds from the south ahead of
a squall line marching across S MS currently. Wind speeds on the
order of 15-20 knots sustained with gusts to 30 knots possible for
the rest of the afternoon.

MVFR cigs are expected overnight from west to east with elevated
southerly surface winds around 10 knots. Line of convection is
progged to first make it to DHN and ECP in the overnight hours and
around dawn at TLH and ABY. Mid/late morning arrival at VLD. Winds
will turn northwesterly behind the line with a few hours of gusty
winds possible.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [1014 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

One more quiet weather day is ahead for the region, as deep layer
high pressure continues to have an influence across the region. A
powerful upper level low to the west, currently located over the
TX/OK Panhandles, will continue to move east northeastward through
the day and begin to really break down the ridge in place across
the region later this afternoon and this evening. The approaching
system will yield increasing winds across the region later this
morning, with sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph and occasional gusts
up to 25 mph expected by this afternoon. Otherwise, partly to
mostly cloudy skies will linger through the day, inhibiting
daytime heating to an extent. Highs will range from the mid to
upper 80s west and upper 80s to low 90s across eastern portions of
the area.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

For tonight into early Monday, there still remains a marginal risk
of severe weather, mainly across southeast Alabama and the Florida
panhandle. A squall line will be approaching the area tonight.
Guidance indicates a small area of unstable air will persist ahead
of it into the far western portions of our area with sufficient
wind shear to maintain the marginal risk of mainly damaging
winds. The squall line is expected to continue gradually weakening
as it moves eastward with the severe weather threat decreasing
farther to the east. Drier and cooler conditions will move into
the area behind the front on Monday night with overnight lows
dipping into the mid to upper 50s across most of the area except
the southeast big bend, although that`s just getting back to
average for this time of year. Afternoon highs on Tuesday are
expected to be mostly in the mid 80s.


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

Mainly dry conditions are expected on Wednesday. The GFS and the
ECMWF have come into better agreement on the 00z cycle that
Thursday will be the wet day across the area as another upper
level trough and cold front affect the southeast states. There
will likely be sufficient instability and shear for organized
convection, and a chance of severe weather can`t be ruled out.
Both models move the system eastward for Friday and show dry
weather for next weekend, at least for this cycle, although there
has been some flip-flopping from run to run with this system. Near
average temperatures are expected behind the system.


.MARINE...

Moderate to strong southeast to south winds will continue across
the coastal waters through Monday ahead of an approaching cold
front. Advisory conditions are expected at times with the worst
conditions west of Apalachicola. This will lead to high surf,
strong rip currents, and slightly above-normal tides. Much lower
winds and seas are expected by mid-week with some increase
expected by the end of the week.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Twenty foot winds are expected to exceed 15mph out of the south
across the region by late morning and remain elevated through this
evening. Transport winds will also be elevated, yielding high
dispersion values across much of the region from late morning
through the afternoon hours. However, RH`s will remain above
critical thresholds, precluding red flag conditions.

Chances for wetting rains will increase late tonight through Monday.
Dry conditions will resume on Tuesday, with RH`s potentially
approaching critically low thresholds once again.


.HYDROLOGY...

Rainfall amounts will generally be in the 0.50 to 1 inch range
from Tallahassee north and westward with lesser amounts to the
south and east. Another system is likely on Thursday with some
heavier totals possible. However, the risk of river flooding is
low given the recent dry conditions and relatively low river
levels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   71  79  57  86  58 /  30  60  10   0   0
Panama City   72  75  61  81  65 /  60  60  10   0   0
Dothan        68  75  54  85  58 /  70  60  10   0   0
Albany        70  78  54  83  57 /  50  60  10   0   0
Valdosta      70  83  59  85  57 /  30  60  30   0   0
Cross City    69  84  65  84  61 /  20  30  40  20   0
Apalachicola  73  77  62  81  65 /  30  60  10   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     High Rip Current Risk from Monday morning through Monday
     afternoon for Coastal Franklin.

     High Surf Advisory until 5 AM CDT Monday for South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for Apalachee
     Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee
     River Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River
     to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from
     Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for Coastal waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...Pullin
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Pullin
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Scholl


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