Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 270723
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
323 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Light and variable winds overnight plus enhanced soil moisture from
rainfall yesterday have allowed fog to develop across southeast
Alabama and parts of southwest Georgia and north Florida. This fog
is expected to lift shortly after sunrise.

Surface high pressure is centered over the mid-Atlantic coastline
with low pressure off to its northeast. A decaying frontal boundary
extends from the offshore low and wraps around the high pressure
across southwest Georgia and up to the southern Appalachians. As the
upper level low supporting this system sags southward over the
Atlantic ocean, the front too will gradually sag southward as it
decays, bringing much drier air to our southwest Georgia counties
and suppressing convection there. Any afternoon seabreeze
thunderstorms that develop today are expected to remain in north
Florida. Temperatures will likely be slightly cooler than the past
few days, though they will still be quite warm, peaking in the mid
90s.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday]...

Mid level high center will continue to retrograde westward as a
shortwave trough translates across southern Ontario through
Wednesday. This will deepen the east coast trough and support a
weak cold front as it moves southward across central MS/AL/GA
tonight and eventually into our CWA later Tuesday. Mid level flow
turns southerly to southwesterly Tuesday which should help get the
seabreeze activated by late morning. Coupled this with an increase
in low level convergence from the front, diurnal instability, and
PWAT over 2 inches spells good chances for thunderstorms into the
afternoon and evening hours each day. Tempered highs down a degree
or two Tuesday across our AL/GA counties with better chances for
clouds and storms will be. Expecting cloud and storms area wide
Wednesday so highs down closer to 90 degrees away from the coast.


.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...

Good rain chances will continue through the end of the work week
with whats left of the front hanging out across the area or just
to the south in our coastal waters. Mid level high center tries to
nudge into the area with some mid level drying and a slight
slackening of the rain chances. This will be short lived as short
wave energy amplifies the east coast trough and sends another weak
boundary towards our CWA Monday with rain chances increasing a
bit. Temperatures will run around to slightly above climatological
normals this period.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Tuesday]...

LIFR cigs and vsbys have begun to settle in over parts of SE AL and
the N FL Panhandle this morning, with more patchy MVFR vsbys further
to the east in SW GA. Although cigs and vsbys will bounce up and
down through the early morning hours, we currently expect conditions
to remain the worst near DHN (IFR-LIFR), while conditions near TLH
and ABY will be slightly better (MVFR-IFR), and sites near ECP and
VLD may remain unaffected. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible
in N FL this afternoon. Current guidance suggests ECP is the most
likely to see storms, though there is a slight chance near TLH as
well.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure will be in control today with an overall
weakening of the ridge as a cold front approaches the Florida
coast Tuesday and Tuesday night. Onshore winds will slightly
increase through late week but should remain at or below 15 knots.
Isolated to scattered showers and storms can be expected each day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

No concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Isolated to scattered showers and storms can be expected just
about every day through early next week. Area rivers are in good
shape with no widespread heavy rain expected. However, a quick
inch or so of rain is possible underneath heavier storms which may
cause some nuisance flooding in poor drainage and low lying
areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   95  74  95  75  91 /  30  20  50  30  50
Panama City   88  78  88  77  86 /  30  20  30  30  40
Dothan        94  75  93  73  89 /  20  30  60  40  50
Albany        95  74  94  74  90 /  20  20  60  30  50
Valdosta      94  73  95  73  91 /  20  10  50  40  50
Cross City    93  74  92  76  91 /  50  20  30  20  30
Apalachicola  88  78  89  77  88 /  30  20  20  30  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for Coffee-Dale-
     Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Moore
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM...Scholl
AVIATION...Moore
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Moore
HYDROLOGY...Scholl


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