Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 121424
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1024 AM EDT Wed Mar 12 2014
.Near Term [Through Today]...
Some isolated rain showers can still be seen mostly offshore of
Apalachicola and near coastal Dixie county. These showers will
dissipate by this afternoon as a drier airmass moves into the area.
Currently, the approaching dry cold front lies off to our west
stretching from just offshore of the Gulf coast of Texas
northeastward across Louisiana, Mississippi, and central Tennessee
and Kentucky. While this cold front will be dry, meaning we`re not
anticipating rain from it, it will be quite windy. Prevailing
winds will shift from the S/SW this morning to W/NW this afternoon
with wind speeds around 10-15 MPH and gusts of around 20-25 MPH.
Between low level cloud cover sticking around and an approaching
cold front which will decrease temperatures as it moves in,
temperatures are a bit tricky today. Currently forecasting highs
in the low to mid 70s west of a line from Panama City to Albany
and highs in the upper 70s to low 80s west of that line.
[Through 12Z Thursday]...The rain and mist have ended, but MVFR-
IFR cigs are sticking around. As drier air moves in this
afternoon, these clouds will begin to break out and return to VFR.
However, this drier air mass moving in will also bring gusty winds
to the area. Winds will shift from light/variable this morning to WNW
at 12-18 kts with 20-25 kt gusts across the region this afternoon.
After sunset, winds will weaken slightly and gusts will be less
frequent, but winds may stay around 10 kts.
Rainfall amounts today ranged from a quarter to a half inch across
the CWA. This will have little effect on area rivers. Area rivers
should remain below flood stage through the weekend. Several
locations along the Apalachicola River and the Ohclocknee are at
bankfull, but no significant impacts are expected. The next rain
event is expected late Sunday and into Monday.
.Prev Discussion [336 AM EDT]...
.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...
Behind the upper level disturbance which brought us the widespread
but fairly short lived area of rain overnight will be a fairly
strong but generally dry cold front which will push through the
region later today and tonight. This front will bring one more batch
of unseasonably cold and dry air to the region tonight and Thursday,
along with fairly breezy conditions. Low temps tonight will
generally range from the mid to upper 30s, but the fairly persistent
NW winds will bring wind chill readings down into the upper 20s to
the middle 30s. High temps on Thursday will struggle to recover back
into the middle 50s north to the lower 60s to the south, which will
set the stage for an interesting night on Thursday night. With the
ridge of high pressure expected to be just off to our NE, much
lighter winds will allow low temperatures to cool off a bit more
than tonight, and although a widespread light freeze is not yet being
forecast, it is certainly a possibility which bears close watching.
Used a fairly extensive blend of both raw model and numerical
guidance in this fcst, and this produced low temps that were cold
enough for a few spots (mainly along the Suwannee River Valley) to
briefly hit the freezing mark, but many more locations across the
Tri-State area could see a few hours of frost. So, for those with
more sensitive vegetation, this is certainly something to keep in
mind after this most recent brief warm spell, and should freezing or
sub-freezing temperatures become more likely, Freeze Watches or
Warnings may be need to be issued. By Friday, high temps will be on
their way back towards more climatological levels, generally in the
upper 60s to lower 70s away from the coast.
.Long Term [Friday Night Through Tuesday]...
After max temps rebound into the upper 60s to the lower 70s on
Friday as an approaching shortwave over northern Mexico propagates
eastward, a significantly milder night is expected with lows back
into the 40s on Friday night. Ahead of this, mean southerly flow
will prime the atmosphere for another round of rain heading into the
weekend. The GFS and EURO both agree that the upper level pattern
will divide into a split stream with a positively tilted trough axis
extending from Mexico over the eastern CONUS. This will keep PoPs up
from Saturday afternoon through Monday. Best chances for rain will
be on Saturday, with a 50-20% NW to SE gradient, thereafter chances
will remain 30-40% for the entire CWA.
Winds will begin to increase out of the west and southwest ahead of
a fairly strong but generally dry cold front today, with winds and
seas expected to quickly ramp up to Small Craft Advisory levels out
of the northwest and north tonight. Therefore, have initiated an
Advisory for tonight into early tomorrow morning for the nearshore
waters, and one with the same beginning time, but ending early
tomorrow afternoon for the offshore legs. Winds and seas are
expected to return to light to moderate levels for much of the
remainder of the period.
Cooler and drier air along with breezy northwest winds will filter
in behind a cold front later today. Relative humidity values are
forecast to drop into the lower to mid 20 percent range across most
of the Tri-state region on Thursday. However, at this time it
doesn`t appear that the other Red Flag criteria will be met.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 81 39 61 33 71 / 10 0 0 0 0
Panama City 77 42 61 42 67 / 10 0 0 0 0
Dothan 74 35 59 37 70 / 10 0 0 0 0
Albany 77 35 56 35 70 / 10 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 82 38 60 35 73 / 20 0 0 0 0
Cross City 81 42 62 33 71 / 20 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 78 43 61 43 65 / 10 0 0 0 0
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Thursday
for Apalachee Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to
Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee
River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Thursday
for Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20
to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to