Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 012000
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
400 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
WHILE AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM REMAINS POSSIBLE...IT IS
SHAPING UP TO BE A MUCH QUIETER AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

.SHORT TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE WILL KEEP OUR REGION IN
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL KEEP OUR CWA RELATIVELY
MOIST. WITH THIS RELATIVELY FASTER LOW-LEVEL FLOW, THE SEA BREEZE
FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND EARLIER...DEVELOPING STORMS AROUND MIDDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MAKE ITS
WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF THE SHORTWAVE AND MOISTURE COMING IN FROM THE GULF,
WILL ENHANCE THE SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY WITH STORM COVERAGE GREATEST
IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA COUNTIES. THE POPS THERE ARE IN THE
50%-60% RANGE. THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR FRIDAY.
THE EURO BRINGS IN DRY AIR FROM THE RIDGE AND SUPPRESSES STORM
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, CLIMATOLOGY FOR OUR CWA STILL FAVORS SOME
ACTIVITY WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT IN MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. SO LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE TYPICAL SEA BREEZE PATTERN AND
KEPT RAIN CHANCES AROUND 25%-35%. TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE
MID 70S.

.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE REGION STILL ON THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE LARGE SCALE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. WHILE THIS TROUGH
HAS FLATTENED OUT CONSIDERABLY BY SATURDAY, THE GFS INDICATES
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH COULD
ENHANCE STORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE EURO PREFERS A MORE DAMPENED SOLUTION LIKELY DUE TO A STRONGER
WESTWARD EXTENTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. GIVEN THE
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS, IT`S DIFFICULT TO DIVERGE TOO
MUCH FROM CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY, WHICH SUGGESTS 30
TO 40 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY. THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD IS MORE UNCERTAIN, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE EURO SHOWS A RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. OVERALL, THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGY IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY] A FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE COASTAL WATERS REMAIN NORTH OF THE
BERMUDA RIDGE. WINDS WILL BE AT THEIR STRONGEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LIGHTER WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE
WEEKEND AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NEAR THE WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER, NO SIGNIFICANT HEAVY AREAS OF RAIN ARE
EXPECTED AND RIVERS REMAIN WELL BELOW ACTION STAGE AT THIS TIME.
AS A RESULT, RIVER FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   74  92  74  93  73 /  10  50  20  40  20
PANAMA CITY   78  88  79  87  78 /  20  30  10  30  10
DOTHAN        73  91  74  92  73 /  30  50  20  30  20
ALBANY        72  91  74  91  72 /  30  60  30  40  20
VALDOSTA      71  92  73  93  72 /  20  60  20  40  20
CROSS CITY    74  92  73  92  74 /  10  30  20  30  20
APALACHICOLA  78  89  79  89  78 /  10  30  10  30  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR COASTAL BAY-
     COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL GULF.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...CHANEY/GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY



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