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FXUS62 KTAE 011931
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
331 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
It`s been a slow start so far with the afternoon convection, but
this has been the pattern over the past couple of days. A few
showers and storms have developed along the immediate coast, but
limited activity has occurred inland. Visible satellite imagery show
the east coast sea breeze starting to move inland west of I-95 and
it is expected that storms between TLH-JAX will continue to develop
through the late afternoon and early evening hours. Elsewhere, with
limited forcing and drier air aloft, expect storms to end by sunset-
if they even develop at all. After midnight, expect mostly clear
skies and warm temperatures mainly in the lower 70s.


.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

A slowly weakening 594 dm Upper Level ridge (which is currently
centered over the CWA) will continue to dominate the synoptic
pattern over the region as it slowly slides to the west. However,
there is still plenty of deep layer moisture under this ridge, which
when combined with very weak low level flow will keep PoPs generally
in the 30-50% range both Tuesday and Wednesday, with most of the
convective forcing generated by the sea breeze circulation.
Afternoon temps will remain on the hot side as well, with highs
still in the mid to upper 90s away from the coast. Overnight lows
will continue to range from the lower to middle 70s inland to the
middle to upper 70s near the coast.


.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...

Although the synoptic pattern will be dominated by weak Upper Level
ridging throughout most of the extended period, the positioning of
the Bermuda High pressure system at the surface will still allow for
an ample supply of deep layer moisture to advect in from the
southeast. Additionally, the Upper ridge is expected to weaken and
retrograde westward over time, which should trend daytime PoPs at or
even above climo levels (generally in the 30-50% range). While high
and low temps are not expected to be nearly as warm as they have
recently been, they should still average above climo, with highs
generally in the lower to a few middle 90s, with lows still in the
lower to middle 70s.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Tuesday] VFR conditions are likely to prevail through
the period. A few storms may approach VLD late this
afternoon/evening but confidence isn`t high enough to include more
than a VCTS group for now. VSBY restrictions in the morning are
unlikely.

&&

.Marine...

A very weak surface pressure pattern will dominate the coastal
waters for the next several days, allowing the diurnal sea breeze
circulation to govern the predominantly light winds. Seas that have
been slightly elevated by a long southeasterly fetch during the past
couple of days will diminish as well.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Afternoon relative humidity values will remain well above critical
levels, so red flag conditions are not expected through this week.

&&

.Hydrology...

Rivers in Georgia/Alabama remain very low, with a few points
potentially reaching record low levels in the next couple of weeks
if the unusually dry conditions continue. Rivers are not quite as
low in Florida, though with little or no significant rainfall
expected this week, the downward trend should continue.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   73  96  73  96  73 /  30  30  30  40  20
Panama City   77  92  77  92  78 /  20  30  20  30  20
Dothan        72  98  73  96  73 /  10  20  20  40  20
Albany        73  97  73  97  73 /  20  30  20  40  20
Valdosta      71  96  72  96  71 /  40  40  30  40  20
Cross City    72  94  71  94  71 /  50  40  30  40  20
Apalachicola  74  90  77  90  77 /  20  30  20  30  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for Coastal
     Bay-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...GOULD
LONG TERM...GOULD
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY
HYDROLOGY...HOLLINGSWORTH






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