Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 051908
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
308 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Breezy northwest winds will continue this afternoon, but should
abate this evening as the surface pressure gradient weakens. With a
deep trough on the east coast and 850mb temperatures around 2-3
standard deviations below normal, we should have a night of cooler
than normal low temperatures. Clear skies will aid in radiational
cooling. Lows should be in the upper 40s in many locations, around
50 in some of the typically warmer inland locations, and in the mid-
50s inside the city of Tallahassee as well as along the coast.


.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

The large eastern CONUS low will prevail through Saturday before
moving east into the Atlantic, gradually deamplifying the upper
pattern across the Southeast. Lower tropospheric heights and
temperatures will continue to be below normal both Friday and
Saturday, yielding below normal afternoon highs and lows. Expect
mid 70s region-wide on Friday, and nearer to average temperatures
(low 80s) on Saturday. Low 50s are expected on Friday night,
climbing to the mid and upper 50s by Saturday night. No rain is
forecast.


.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]...

Dry conditions will continue through early next week under the
influence of deep layer ridging. Temperatures are forecast to
remain above average through the period. By Tuesday, the southern
stream will nose back into the Southeast and create a more
unsettled pattern, with the seabreezes likely playing a role as
well. For now PoPs remain in the 20-30% range through mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Friday]...

VFR conditions and sparse cloud cover will continue through the
next 24 hours. Gusty northwest winds this afternoon should
diminish this evening around 00Z.

&&

.MARINE...

Marginal Advisory (or Cautionary) conditions will prevail through
tonight across the northeast Gulf. Thereafter winds will gradually
decrease and remain low through next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry conditions will continue through the weekend. While RH values
will be low Friday, duration will not be long enough and winds will
be light. Conditions will be more marginal on Saturday with longer
RH durations expected and higher ERC values forecast for Dixie and
Lafayette counties.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Dry conditions are expected over the next several days, precluding
any hydrological concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   49  76  51  83  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   55  75  58  78  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        48  74  52  82  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        47  75  51  82  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      48  75  50  82  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    48  75  49  81  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  51  74  56  78  62 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning for Coastal Gulf.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for Apalachee Bay or
     Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River Fl
     out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to
     Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee
     River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee
     River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Lamers
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Harrigan
AVIATION...Lamers
MARINE...Harrigan
FIRE WEATHER...Weston
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan


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