Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 231912
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
312 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Latest mesoanalysis as of 18Z shows the cold front stretching
from Apalachee Bay northward across the FL Big Bend into south
central GA. Along and just east of the front, a band of showers
and isolated thunderstorms will continue moving eastward late this
afternoon, pushing east of our area tonight. Isolated strong wind
gusts cannot be ruled out across our southeastern areas as this
occurs, but ample cloud cover has suppressed instability and
prevented thunderstorms from strengthening so far today. A few
showers/isolated storms will linger across the eastern FL Big Bend
during the early evening, but will likely end around sunset as
the cold front continues moving east/southeast of our area. Much
cooler and drier air will move into our area overnight in the wake
of the front, with lows dropping into the 50s across our area by
Tuesday morning.

.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
Slightly cooler airmass will follow the initial front on Tuesday.
However, afternoon highs will still likely reach the mid to upper
70s. Primary trough axis will dig into the Deep South by late
Tuesday, sending the main push of colder air across the forecast
area. Expect lows on Wednesday and Thursday mornings to reach well
into the 40s. Highs on Wednesday are unlikely to reach 70 degrees.


.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...
Temperatures will briefly moderate on Thursday and Friday as a
shortwave ridge crosses the area. Thereafter, another deep trough
is expected to dig into the eastern states, bringing another
round of below normal temperatures for Sunday into early next
week. Scattered showers will be possible ahead of this front on
late Saturday into early Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Tuesday]...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to move eastward
along/ahead of a cold front that currently stretches from just
east of TLH through southwest GA. Rain has ended at all terminals
except VLD, although MVFR cigs could continue at TLH and ABY for a
couple hours. VLD could see periods of reduced visibility and
cigs in the next couple hours with showers and isolated storms.
After these conditions end, VFR will prevail at all terminals as
skies clear.

&&

.MARINE...
Northwesterly winds are expected overnight in the wake of a cold
front with conditions dropping to Exercise Caution levels. Winds
will increase back to near Small Craft Advisory levels Tuesday
night in the wake of a secondary front. Thereafter, conditions
will gradually improve through the end of the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A dry and cool airmass will move over the region on Tuesday in
the wake of a cold front. Daytime relative humidity values will
drop into the low to mid 30 percent range for much of this week,
though this will still be above red flag criteria.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The heaviest rain fell over the far western portion of the
forecast area overnight, with as much as 8 inches reported in
western Walton County. This caused the Shoal River at Mossy Head
to rise quickly above action stage. However, the river is expected
to crest below flood stage this evening. Elsewhere, modest rises
are expected on area rivers, but none are expected to reach flood
stage.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   54  77  47  69  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   57  74  51  68  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        51  72  44  65  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        52  74  45  66  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      54  75  46  67  42 /  10   0   0   0   0
Cross City    57  78  48  70  42 /  30   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  56  78  51  69  47 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for Apalachee
     Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee
     River Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River
     to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from
     Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-Coastal waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Lahr
SHORT TERM...Camp
LONG TERM...Camp
AVIATION...Lahr
MARINE...Camp
FIRE WEATHER...Godsey
HYDROLOGY...Camp



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