Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KTAE 010747
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
347 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

THIS MORNING`S REGIONAL SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DEPICTED A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN MS/AL/GA. CONVECTION INITIATING ALONG
THIS FRONT HAS DRIFTED ESE IN THE WNW FLOW REGIME AS AN MCS. THE
CONSENSUS AMONG MODELS BEST HANDLING THIS ONGOING CONVECTION IS THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT DROPS INTO OUR REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. STILL, A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTH GEORGIA
THIS MORNING. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE
MUCH SOUTHWARD PROGRESS TODAY, AND A DEVELOPING BACKDOOR FRONT NOT
EXPECTED TO APPROACH OUR SOUTH GEORGIA COUNTIES UNTIL LATER TONIGHT,
THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM FOR STORMS TODAY WILL MOST LIKELY BE
WHERE THE SEABREEZES AND OUTFLOW FROM THE MCS INTERACT. IN THIS
REGION, STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES,
AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL MEAN ANOTHER AFTERNOON WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LARGE HAIL, FOLLOWED BY THE THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STRONG STORMS WILL
BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...

THE FAIRLY ZONAL MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL MOVE SYSTEMS
ACROSS THE CONUS RATHER QUICKLY THIS PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A
SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER OUR REGION TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING
TROUGH ON THURSDAY, THEN A RIDGE ON FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE, OUR
FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE
CENTERED IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. POPS WILL BE SLIGHT THURSDAY
WITH ONLY WEAK FORCING AND LESS-THAN-IMPRESSIVE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE. LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF RAIN IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S, AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. (OF COURSE HIGHS
WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 70S AT THE BEACHES DUE TO THE RELATIVELY
COOL GULF COASTAL WATERS).


.LONG TERM [FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...

A LONG WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND, BUT THIS FRONT, LIKE MOST OF OUR APRIL
FRONTS, WILL BECOME MOISTURE-STARVED BY THE TIME IT LIMPS INTO OUR
REGION ON SATURDAY. THUS WE HAVE ONLY SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR
SATURDAY. THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME
MOSTLY ZONAL OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
BUT IT WILL QUICKLY DAMPEN OUT EVEN FURTHER AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER, OR CLOSER TO AVERAGE, THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S AND LOWS SUNDAY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY] SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AROUND DAWN SHOULD
BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS. THEN, VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON TODAY. IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

RELATIVELY LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO
MODERATE LEVELS NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT, THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 10
KNOTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL NOT SUPPORT RED FLAG CONDITIONS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE THAT DISPERSION
INDICES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
AFTERNOONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

THE RIVERS WERE ALL BELOW THEIR LOCAL "ACTION" STAGES THIS
MORNING, AND ARE LIKELY TO SLOWLY RECEDE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS THERE ARE NO WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENTS ON THE HORIZON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   84  61  82  57  84 /  20  10  10  10   0
PANAMA CITY   75  63  75  61  75 /  10  10   0   0   0
DOTHAN        81  61  81  57  82 /  20  20  10  10  10
ALBANY        82  60  81  58  83 /  30  20  20  10   0
VALDOSTA      81  61  81  60  84 /  40  20  20  10   0
CROSS CITY    82  61  82  60  84 /  10  10  20  10  10
APALACHICOLA  79  63  74  61  76 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER


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