Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 260139
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
939 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Storms developing across central AL/GA this morning generated
outflow that propagated into the Tri-State region this afternoon,
sparking showers and thunderstorms. These storms have just about
all dissipated or moved into southeast GA at this hour. Due to an
area of weak low-level convergent flow generated from these
storms, expect a few isolated showers to remain possible over land
for the next few hours. Otherwise, showers and isolated
thunderstorms will shift once again to the northern Gulf
late tonight. Lows will fall into the lower to middle 70s.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [757 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

The weak upper level pattern will continue for the next several
days. With plenty of moisture and the sea breeze for forcing,
expect widespread coverage of thunderstorms. PoPs will be 30-60%
Wednesday with the highest chances over SW GA. Thursday PoPs will
be slightly lower, 30-50% and will be concentrated along the I-10
corridor. Temps will be seasonal with highs in the low 90s and
lows in the mid 70s.


.LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]...

A trough over the east coast will translate through during the
long term period. An associated cold front will push through over
the weekend, however there are some differences in the models at
this time. The GFS has drier air arriving behind the front and the
EURO keeps moisture around into early next week. Kept PoPs in the
30 to 50% range. Highs will be in the upper 80s with lows in the
lower 70s.


.AVIATION [Through 00Z Thursday]...

Scattered storms in south central GA and the eastern FL Big Bend are
dissipating and moving east this evening. By around 10-11Z, MVFR
cigs and vsbys are expected to develop near DHN, ABY, and VLD, but
should scatter out around 15-16Z. Late in the period, scattered
thunderstorms will be seen across the area, though it`s a little
early to pin down timing and location.


.MARINE...

Light winds and seas will prevail for the next several
days. As the pressure gradient tightens towards the weekend, seas
will increase to 3 feet. Showers and thunderstorms are possible
each day.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the
next several days.


.HYDROLOGY...

While all rivers are below flood stage, some thunderstorms may
produce heavy rain that leads to localized flooding.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   73  92  74  92  75 /  30  50  30  40  20
Panama City   77  90  78  90  79 /  20  40  20  40  20
Dothan        73  93  74  93  75 /  30  40  20  30  20
Albany        73  92  74  92  75 /  40  50  20  30  20
Valdosta      73  90  73  90  74 /  40  60  30  40  20
Cross City    74  92  74  90  75 /  10  30  20  40  20
Apalachicola  76  90  77  89  78 /  20  40  20  40  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Harrigan
SHORT TERM...Weston
LONG TERM...Weston
AVIATION...Moore
MARINE...Weston
FIRE WEATHER...Harrigan
HYDROLOGY...Weston



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