Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KTAE 191743
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1243 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Tuesday]...

MVFR cigs continue at TLH and ABY but should improve to VFR by
19z. Look for another round of IFR-LIFR conditions to develop
overnight into Tuesday morning. Winds will be light through the
TAF cycle.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [948 AM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

The area will remain situated to the west of deep layer ridging.
With a warm, moist airmass and light southerly flow across the area,
we`ll start off the day with another foggy morning, then warm into
the low 80s after the fog clears.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday]...

Deep layer ridging centered over the Atlantic with southeast to
southwest winds across the CWA will result in the warm, humid
pattern continuing through the short term. While a cold front will
move into the Tennessee Valley and Mississippi Valley on Wednesday,
the front will remain well north of the CWA. With the deep layer
southerly flow a few showers are possible through the short term,
but overall, rain chances are still on the lower side with a 30
percent chance or less. The highest rain chances will be Tuesday
afternoon/evening as PW values increase to 1.5+ inches, near a
record value for 00z Feb 21. There is enough instability Tuesday
and Wednesday that an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.
Temperatures will continue to remain well above average with highs
in the low to mid 80s (around 15 degrees above normal) and lows
in the lower to mid 60s (around 20 degrees above normal).


.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...

The southerly flow will continue into the long term with
temperatures remaining well above average. Slightly drier air
Thursday and Friday will limit precip chances to 10 percent or
less, however rain chances will return to the 20-30 percent range
as a cold front pushes into the CWA late in the weekend. This
front will quickly weaken though as it pushes eastward, with rain
chances diminishing.


.MARINE...

Dense fog over the marine area will continue to be possible through
mid morning. East to south winds will dominate over the next few
days with wind speeds of 10-15 knots. Brief periods of exercise
caution are possible, mainly Tuesday and Wednesday.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Minimum RH values will be around 50 percent or higher through the
next several days. As a result, no fire weather concerns are
anticipated throughout this period. Transport winds and dispersions
will be on the higher end over the Florida Panhandle and southeast
Alabama this afternoon, but still below headline criteria.


.HYDROLOGY...

While there are low end chances of precipitation in the forecast,
rainfall amounts over the next few days are minimal. The
Choctawhatchee River at Bruce continues to remain in minor flood,
but is falling and should fall into action stage Tuesday night.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   61  83  64  84  61 /   0  20  20  20  10
Panama City   63  78  66  79  65 /   0  30  20  10  10
Dothan        61  82  65  83  62 /   0  30  30  20  10
Albany        61  82  65  83  62 /   0  20  30  20  10
Valdosta      62  83  65  84  63 /   0  20  20  20  10
Cross City    63  85  63  85  60 /   0  20  10  10  10
Apalachicola  62  77  65  77  64 /   0  20  10  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM...Nguyen
LONG TERM...Fieux
AVIATION...Barry
MARINE...Nguyen
FIRE WEATHER...Fieux
HYDROLOGY...Nguyen



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.