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FXUS62 KTAE 200150
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
850 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

An upper level trough currently near TX will be moving through
tonight with a Gulf Low at the sfc supplying plenty of moisture.
Light rain will continue overnight particularly for northwest
portions of the CWA. Lows will be in the upper 40s tonight.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Sunday]...

VFR conditions expected through tomorrow. The only exception is
MVFR ceilings in the early morning hours at DHN. Rain overnight
will likely let up by morning but may linger at DHN and ABY. Winds
will be very light and northeasterly.

&&

.Prev Discussion [322 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
Relatively zonal flow will be in place at the start of the period
with a short wave trough passing to our north on Saturday. The next
piece of energy in the southern stream will lift from TX to the
Mississippi Valley on Sunday with most of this energy also staying
north of the area as it passes Sunday night. At the surface, a weak
low will be centered southwest of the forecast area over the north
central Gulf of Mexico and move little before lifting north Sunday
night. This will bring a warm front northward across the forecast
area. Forcing for ascent will be fairly weak across the region until
isentropic upglide increases over the boundary Sunday and Sunday
night. Rain chances will decrease through the day Saturday as the
initial short wave moves away. Slight to low chance PoPs will remain
in place Saturday night. Pops will then increase to likely by day`s
end Sunday, remaining likely west and increasing to categorical east
for Sunday night. Afternoon temps both days will range from the
upper 50s northwest to around 70 southeast. Lows Saturday night will
be in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Sunday night lows will be well
above normal in the warm sector, generally in the 50s.


.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...
The unsettled pattern will continue into next week as a long wave
trough amplifies into the Great Plains Monday and Tuesday and then
sweeps eastward on Wednesday. Overrunning rains will continue
through the day on Monday with PoPs remaining in the likely
category. As the upper system approaches from the west, deep layer
shear will increase across the region. The atmosphere will become
sufficiently sheared to support severe weather provided sufficient
surface destabilization can occur. The latter will be unlikely from
Monday into Monday night. However by Tuesday, there is a bit more
concern as some models are indicating SBCAPE recovering into the
500-1000 J/kg range. Another concern is heavy rainfall. Several
inches of rain are possible from this weekend through Tuesday
night with the heaviest likely centered around Tuesday. A cold
front will sweep across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday
finally ushering in a drier and noticeably cooler air mass. After
a couple of mild days with highs near 70, Wednesday`s temps won`t
make it out of the 50s across the northwest half of the forecast
area with 60s to the southeast. Similar temps can be expected on
Thursday before a moderating trend commences on Friday. While
morning lows will drop into the 30s Wednesday night, freezing
temps are not expected.


.Marine...
Light to moderate easterly flow will continue through the weekend.
Winds will then veer to onshore early next week as a warm front
lifts north of the waters. These winds could reach cautionary levels
ahead of a cold front, which will sweep across the waters Tuesday
night. Advisory level winds are forecast behind the front through
Wednesday evening.


.Fire Weather...
Plenty of clouds, low level moisture, and high rain chances will
prevail over the next several days.


.Hydrology...
An unsettled pattern will mean high rain chances from Sunday through
Tuesday night. Several inches of rain are possible during this time
with the heaviest rain coming from Monday night into Tuesday night.
Some localized areal flooding will be possible during this time with
rises on area rivers continuing into the end of the week. Some
riverine flooding will be possible by week`s end.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   47  67  50  65  57 /  50  20  20  70  80
Panama City   52  66  55  65  60 /  60  20  30  70  70
Dothan        48  59  48  60  54 /  70  40  20  60  70
Albany        47  61  47  60  53 /  70  40  20  60  80
Valdosta      48  66  49  64  56 /  40  20  20  60  80
Cross City    46  70  52  71  59 /  20  10  20  60  80
Apalachicola  53  66  55  65  60 /  50  20  30  70  80

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...WOOL





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