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000
FXUS62 KTAE 100111
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
800 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2010

.SYNOPSIS...REGIONAL OBS AS OF 00Z SHOWED A WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT
JUST EAST OF TALLAHASSEE STRETCHING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND
PUSHING EASTWARD. TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WERE IN THE UPPER 50S
WITH UPPER 40S JUST TO THE WEST AND UPPER 30S OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA.
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING...SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT HAS
MOSTLY DIMINISHED WITH A THIN LINE OF CLOUDS ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
SUBSTANTIAL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
SOME LOW CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE. CLOUDS SHOULD BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR MIXES IN AND
MORE STABLE AIR MOVES IN PLACE.

.TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE CWA BY
MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND CONTINUE NORTHWESTERLY BRINGING
IN MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR. WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KTS COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S WILL
ALLOW WIND-CHILLS TO DROP TO ADVISORY LEVELS OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA
AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA. ELSEWHERE...MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE
FREEZING TO NEAR-FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH SOME OF OUR
EASTERN ZONES STAYING JUST ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THOUGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...SUBSTANTIAL COLD ADVECTION WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL ALLOW US TO REACH SUCH COLD TEMPERATURES. EXPECT SKIES TO
CLEAR AFTER 06Z WITH PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY. DESPITE WIND...PERIODIC MVFR
CIGS WITH LCL IFR CIGS PERSIST AND WILL END FROM W-E AFT 02Z-06Z.
THEN SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH VFR CONDS REST OF PERIOD... WINDS HOWEVER
WILL REMAIN NW THEN N AND CONTINUE BREEZY/GUSTY AFTER SUNRISE AND
PERSIST UNTIL AROUND SUNDOWN.

&&

.MARINE...SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WINDS LOOK TO DIMINISH BELOW CRITERIA ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT WE MAY SEE A BRIEF SURGE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY MORNING
THAT REQUIRES ANOTHER SCA FOR THE MARINE AREA. AFTER A BRIEF
DECREASE BELOW CRITERIA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN
DETERIORATE ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW CENTER
TRACKS SOUTH OF THE MARINE AREA.

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY...HOUSTON.

GA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BAKER...BEN HILL...BERRIEN...BROOKS...
     CALHOUN...CLAY...COLQUITT...COOK...DECATUR...DOUGHERTY...
     EARLY...GRADY...IRWIN...LANIER...LEE...LOWNDES...MILLER...
     MITCHELL...QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...SEMINOLE...TERRELL...
     THOMAS...TIFT...TURNER...WORTH.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CALHOUN...CLAY...EARLY...QUITMAN...
     RANDOLPH...TERRELL.

FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON EST /11 AM CST/ TO 7 PM EST /6 PM
     CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...
     COASTAL WALTON...DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...
     HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...
     LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...COASTAL
     WALTON...DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...
     INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...
     LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FROM DESTIN TO
     THE SUWANNEE RIVER ENTRANCE OUT TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES.

&&

$$

LONG TERM...JAMSKI
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...BLOCK/MROZCKA
REST OF DISCUSSION...AUSTIN