Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 190017
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
717 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2018

.UPDATE...

The forecast is on track and no changes are expected.


&&

.AVIATION [Through 00Z Saturday]...

VFR conditions with light winds will prevail through the forecast
period.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [247 PM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Another very cold night is on tap as the surface high settles over
the region, allowing for clear skies, light winds, and excellent
conditions for radiational cooling. Temperatures will likely be more
varied tonight and more highly dependent on location. Rural, low-
lying, and sheltered areas will likely reach 20 degrees across
Florida and SE Alabama. Therefore, have opted for a Hard Freeze
Warning for portions of the CWA.


.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

High pressure will dominated the low levels this weekend, with a cut
off upper level low traversing the northern Gulf coastline. This low
will increase upper level cloudiness Friday night through Saturday
night, but will otherwise have little to no impact on the forecast.
Temperatures will gradually start to warm up. Expect highs in the
50s Friday and low to mid 60s on Saturday. Minimum temperatures will
still drop into the low 30s Friday night, but will only dip to upper
30s to low 40s on Saturday night.


.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]...

An upper level +PV anomaly will swing into the central Plains on
Sunday evening, helping develop a frontal that will race through the
Mississippi Valley and southeast Monday to Monday night. The front
will then lift northeastward on Tuesday, with the southern tail of
it decaying as it passes just west of our area. This front will
bring the area around an inch or less of rainfall, but with little
to no instability to work with, thunderstorms appear unlikely with
this system. Temperatures in the wake of the front will be slightly
warm for this time of year, with highs in the 60s and lows in the
40s.


.MARINE...

Light winds from the north will become easterly Friday night then
southerly early next week as the ridge of high pressure shifts
eastward. Wind speeds will increase late Monday night in the wake of
a front and will approach cautionary if not advisory conditions.


.FIRE WEATHER...

No concerns.


.HYDROLOGY...

Moderate to severe drought conditions persist across most of our
area. With an inch of rain or less expected Monday through Monday
night, rivers will remain well below flood stage for the next
several days.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   21  58  30  63  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   30  54  38  60  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        24  53  31  60  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        24  55  31  61  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      23  58  31  62  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    22  58  31  65  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  29  55  38  61  44 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Hard Freeze Warning from 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ to 9 AM EST /8
     AM CST/ Friday for Calhoun-Central Walton-Gadsden-Holmes-
     Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-
     Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-North
     Walton-Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EST /8 PM CST/ this evening for
     Coastal Gulf.

GA...Hard Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Friday for Clay-Early-
     Quitman-Randolph.

AL...Hard Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Friday for
     Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Barry
NEAR TERM...Camp
SHORT TERM...Nguyen
LONG TERM...Nguyen
AVIATION...Barry
MARINE...Nguyen
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...Nguyen


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