Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 082324
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
624 PM EST Thu Dec 8 2016

.AVIATION [Through 00Z Saturday]...

VFR conditions will prevail through the period with northerly
winds around 10 kts persisting through the overnight period. Gusty
northerly winds will persist through the daytime hours tomorrow,
with variable mid to high clouds through the period. Clearing
skies and weakening winds expected late in the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [302 PM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

A split flow regime is evident on WV imagery this afternoon, with
the core of the northern stream wave stretched through the Ohio
Valley and Great Lakes region, and the southern stream draped across
the Gulf coast and Southeast. At the surface, high pressure is
nosing into the Southeast with a frontal boundary delineating
dewpoints in the 40s vs. dewpoints in the 20s stretching from the
Mid-Atlantic along the Gulf coast states. Upper level clouds
associated with the southern and northern stream troughs will build
into the Tri-State region from the west through the night. Elevated
winds on the nose of high pressure will promote a CAA regime
overnight and thus have favored raw model low temperatures as
opposed to MOS guidance. This results in lows ranging from the upper
30s in the southeast Big Bend, down to the low to mid 30s in
southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia.


.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

The main impact in the short term will be the cold temperatures.
Surface high pressure will be situated across the central Plains
Friday morning. This will continue northerly winds across the CWA
and filter much drier air into the area with dew points dropping
into the teens. In addition, high temperatures Friday afternoon will
be around 8 degrees cooler than today with highs in the upper 40s
to the mid 50s.

By Saturday morning, the surface high moves into the Tennessee Valley
and will see the coldest temperatures of the season across the CWA
Saturday morning. Lows will drop into the mid 20s to lower 30s, well
below normal (but not record breaking). Since we have already had
a widespread freeze this season, a Freeze Warning will not be
issued for this and will fall short of Hard Freeze criteria (20
degrees or cooler). Folks should still take any necessary
precautions such as covering sensitive plants if they are still
growing and caring for pets. Wind chills in the low to mid 20s
are expected Saturday morning (above Wind Chill Advisory criteria
of 20 degrees), so remember to dress warmly, in layers, if you are
spending time outside.

The winds become more northeast to east on Saturday as the surface
ridge shifts to the Carolinas. This will result in an increase in
dew points, although overall it remains dry with PWs around
0.25 inches. Highs will warm a few degrees for Saturday.


.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]...

High pressure is in place at the beginning of the long term but
quickly breaks down as a cold front pushes into the southeast
early in the week. This front will bring the return of rain to the
area and chances will linger into mid-week as the front stalls.
Another front will push through mid-week, allowing for high
pressure and dry conditions to push in late in the week.


.MARINE...

Winds and seas will increase across the marine area tonight to
Small Craft Advisory conditions and persist briefly into tomorrow
night. Winds will continue at exercise caution levels through
Saturday and then drop below 15 knots. A front will approach the
marine area Monday but stalls north of the marine area with
another front pushing through late next week, clearing out the
precipitation.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry air will move into the area Friday and Saturday with min RH
values dropping into the mid 20s to low 30s across much of the area.
Northerly winds will approach 15 mph across portions of the Florida
panhandle on Friday afternoon, but ERC values have come down with
the recent heavy rainfall, so red flag conditions are not expected.
An increase in RH is expected after Saturday.


.HYDROLOGY...

Carryville at the Choctawhatchee River is slowly rising, but
appears to be near the crest. In addition, Bruce on the
Choctawhatchee River continues to rise, but is not expected to
make it to flood stage. For the latest river forecasts visit
http://water.weather.gov/ahps.


Rain will return to the area late Sunday into Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   39  54  29  58  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   41  52  35  56  44 /   0   0   0   0  10
Dothan        33  49  28  52  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        35  51  29  53  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      36  53  28  57  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    39  57  31  62  42 /  10  10   0   0   0
Apalachicola  43  55  36  58  47 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for Apalachee Bay or
     Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River Fl
     out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton
     Beach out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for Coastal Waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Harrigan
SHORT TERM...Fieux
LONG TERM...Fieux
AVIATION...Pullin
MARINE...Fieux
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Fieux


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