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FXUS62 KTAE 010133
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
933 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Finally looks to be a break in the pattern of cloudy weather in
the near future. The stratus deck was slowly eroding from the
north and west and continues to gradually thin this evening.
Further aloft, as weak shortwave ridging builds in, the airmass
has continued to dry out with the overall precipitable water down
to 1.63 inches. In areas that have cleared out, the low levels
remain moist enough to support patchy fog development before
sunrise. Still will be mild overnight with lows in the mid to
upper 60s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Thursday]...
Ceilings lifted to VFR prior to TAF issuance and have slowly
cleared from DHN/ECP. Expect clearing at ABY around 03z and
possibly into TLH around 06z. However, with the near surface layer
remaining quite moist, expect redevelopment (or lowering) of
ceilings to at least MVFR levels before sunrise. IFR conditions
are possible at VLD. Expect the cloud deck to scatter a bit faster
on Wednesday with VFR all sites by 16z.

&&

.Prev Discussion [319 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

Any drier air that moves into the region overnight will be short
lived, as low level moisture will be back on the increase for
Wednesday. However, skies should finally become partly cloudy during
the day, which should allow temps to climb into the upper 80s in the
afternoon. Most areas should remain free from any showers and storms
tomorrow, with the exception of the SE FL Big Bend where 20-30% rain
chances are expected near the stalled out surface trof over the FL
Peninsula and northern Gulf of Mexico. On Thursday, high temps
around 90 degrees are expected away from the coast, with gradually
increasing rain chances from W to E over the region through Thursday
night, peaking at 40% over SE AL and much of the FL Panhandle
towards Friday morning. This convection will develop well out ahead
of an approaching cold front from the NW, with showers and storms
becoming more numerous on Friday as discussed below.


.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected on Friday, while the
Tri-State region remains in the warm and humid air mass. This
convection will be generated by an approaching cold front from the
NW, which is now fcst to push rapidly through the CWA on Friday
night, with any remaining showers and storms coming to an end by
Saturday morning. At this time, it appears that the best forcing out
ahead of this front will remain well to our north, so no strong or
severe storms are expected at this time. However, this will be a
strong cold front in terms of changing air masses, as our first real
taste of fall weather is ushered in behind it. High temps will
generally be in the upper 70s on both Sat. and Sun. with much drier
air, before a gradual moderating trend returns them back into the
lower to middle 80s for Mon. and Tue. The greatest impact behind the
front will be low temperatures, as they are likely to bottom out in
the upper 40s to the middle 50s on both Sun. and Mon. mornings.


.Marine...

Once the 10 to 15 knot northeasterly winds die down this evening,
light winds and low seas will dominate the Coastal Waters through
Thursday night. On Friday, southwest winds will be on the increase
out ahead of the next cold front, before they shift quickly to the
northwest then north behind it on Friday night and Saturday. With a
fairly tight pressure pattern expected behind this strong cold
front, winds and seas are expected to reach at least cautionary
levels on Saturday.


.Fire Weather...

Fire weather concerns are not expected for the next few days. A cold
front will move into the region on Friday bringing widespread
showers and thunderstorms. Much drier and cooler air will arrive
behind this front for the weekend. Relative humidity values may drop
below critical levels by Sunday afternoon.


.Hydrology...

Although we could see some periods of heavy rainfall on Friday, the
fast moving nature of this cold front should limit storm total
rainfall amounts to between 1 and 2 inches over most areas, with
isolated higher totals possible. Since the last rainfall event
produced lower basin averages than expected, this upcoming system
should only cause modest rises on our area rivers and streams at
best.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   69  89  70  90  71 /  10  10  10  30  30
Panama City   71  86  73  87  75 /  10  10  10  30  40
Dothan        66  88  67  89  69 /   0  10  10  30  40
Albany        66  89  67  89  69 /   0  10  10  20  30
Valdosta      67  89  67  91  69 /  10  20  20  20  20
Cross City    69  89  69  90  69 /  20  30  20  30  20
Apalachicola  72  85  73  85  75 /  10  10  10  30  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until Midnight EDT tonight for Coastal
     Franklin.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...GOULD
LONG TERM...GOULD
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY
HYDROLOGY...GOULD



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