Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 180817
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
217 AM MDT Mon Mar 18 2024

.DISCUSSION...

Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with a ridge running north from
California through Idaho and Montana, and cresting over southern
Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Northeast Montana lies underneath this
ridge with some of the warmest weather it will have over the next
several days. The Coldest air lies over the Northwest Territories
and Nunavut.

Today through Tuesday: The ridge crest will southeast down the
frontrange over these periods. Where the crest exit the Front
Range will contain a warming chinook wind and dry conditions.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night: As the old crest of the
ridge drops southeast so too will the arctic air up north, though
initially the bulk of this will get deflected east into Manitoba.
However this still in strong enough to generate a very slow
moving cold front with a gradual CAA behind it lasting into the
next several days. In addition, the front looks like it may stall
over southern Montana and northern Wyoming. This will allow for
an overrunning zone for pacific moisture to drag across northeast
Montana`s arctic air which may start with some rain early Tuesday
night but will quickly transition to all light snow lasting into
Wednesday night. A northwest to southeast oriented band about 2
counties wide looks to set up. The position of the axis of this
band has reduced it`s spatial placement in the ensembles down to
about one county wide and varying as far north as centered over
Opheim and Wolf Point or as far south as centered over Zortman to
Jordan. This will likely come down to mesoscale factors. Snow
totals with this band will range from a half inch in the outer
portions of the band to 5 inches over the center axis. The real
question is where will the axis set up, and there is not yet a
consistent answer from the ensembles.

Thursday onward: Cold and snowy conditions will continue through
these periods with ensembles predicting about and inch of snow or
more every 24 hours. This persistent snow is expected to last
into Tuesday with the heaviest periods being Saturday afternoon
into Sunday morning which by itself could bring an additional 3
to 7 inches. All in all it looks like another full week of winter
with constant snow shoveling to keep the UPS person from slipping
during deliveries. Enjoy today while you can! GAH


&&

.AVIATION...

UPDATED: 0800Z

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

LLWS: Low level wind shear is possible 12Z to 15Z this morning.

DISCUSSION: Dry conditions with occasional mid and high level
clouds are expected through the cycle.

WINDS: Southerly and light this morning. Veering to the W-NW
and increasing to 15-25 kts this afernoon. Calmign to 10 kts or
less this evening.

GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow


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