420
FXUS63 KMPX 111826
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
126 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe/extreme geomagnetic storm continues tonight, but
  increased mid level cloud cover will make viewing a little
  less vibrant than last night.

- Sunny and warm on Sunday with in the 80s.

- Widespread rain chances return Wednesday through next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...Early morning satellite imagery showed clear
skies and light westerly winds across Minnesota, with northwest
winds and a few cumulus clouds over Wisconsin. Further upstream,
some thin cirrus was located across the Dakotas and southern Canada,
and this is forecast to move overhead later tonight. With another
display of aurora on tap for tonight, the high clouds could limit
the vibrancy a bit as opposed to last night.

On Sunday, southwest winds ahead of an approaching cold front will
allow temperatures to warm into the 80s. The front is forecast to
move through during the afternoon and evening. This front will pass
through dry, but there is a small chance for showers and
thunderstorms across southern/eastern MN and western WI. The lack of
instability is the limiting factor in the very low risk for severe
weather. The SPC Day2 outlook has general thunder forecast, with a
sliver of Marginal touching far eastern Rusk/Chippewa/Eau Claire
counties.

On Monday this cold front will stall out to the south, keeping most
of the region north of I-90 dry through at least Tuesday. On
Wednesday, a shortwave trough will approach from the west, and this
will be the focus for a rather prolonged period of rain chances.
Based on the ensemble guidance, most if not all locations will see
rain from Wednesday through Thursday, with smaller chances
continuing into next weekend. The severe weather risk appears low
with this system. Mid level lapse rates will only be on the order of
6 to 7C/km, and most likely only a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE.
Temperatures will be seasonable, with highs in the 70s and lows in
the upper 40s to lower 50s.&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

VFR conditions throughout. Today will have westerly winds around
10 kts. These will become more southerly overnight, and
southwest on Sunday morning. Another weak frontal boundary will
move through late Sunday and bring a northerly wind shift and
small chance for a shower or thunderstorm.

KMSP...VFR conditions throughout with WNW winds around 10 kts.
Winds will become more southerly overnight, and southwest on
Sunday morning. Another weak frontal boundary will move through
late Sunday and bring a northerly wind shift and small chance
for a shower or thunderstorm near the end of TAF time (00Z
Monday).

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind W 10-15G25kts BCMG N 10-15kts.
MON...VFR. Wind NNE 10-15kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind E at 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...JRB