000
FXUS63 KMPX 101815
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1215 PM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

.UPDATE...FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

THE QUICK BURST OF LOW CLOUDS AND SNOW WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST
THIS MORNING...WITH THE ONLY LINGERING AFFECT BEING REDUCED
VISIBILITIES DUE TO THE BRISK WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW.
WHILE WINDS STAY RATHER STOUT THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS WEST/SOUTH
CENTRAL MN...DO THINK WE WILL BE ABLE TO LET THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY GO SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.

ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THE NEXT WEAK WAVE PROGGED TO DIVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. SAID FEATURE IS PROGGED TO MAINLY AFFECT
SOUTHERN MN...WHERE CATEGORICAL POPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED GENERALLY
ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 FOR THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE SOUTHERN
QUARTER OF MN /SOUTH OF MINNEAPOLIS/ TO SEE 0.5 TO 2.0 INCH
ACCUMULATIONS...WITH PATCHY BLOWING SNOW AS WELL UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF 15-20 MPH NORTHWEST WIND. THAT BEING SAID...DO NOT THINK FORECAST
WINDS/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS QUITE JUSTIFY A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH WIND CHILLS WILL NECESSITATE HEADLINES TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. IN FACT...SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY ONLY SNEAK BACK
WARMER THAN CRITERIA FOR A SHORT TIME SPAN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE FALLING BACK BELOW AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. THEREFORE...
PROLONGED WIND CHILL HEADLINES WERE HELD ONTO FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NORTH CENTRAL MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI. NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY SEE WIND CHILLS DIP BELOW
-35...GENERALLY FROM LITTLE FALLS TO RUSH CITY AND LADYSMITH. AS A
RESULT...HAVE GONE WITH A WIND CHILL WARNING THERE...AND ADVISORIES

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

THE MAIN CHG IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS HOLDING BACK ON TEMPERATURES
MODIFICATION NEXT WEEK...OR AT LEAST HOLD ONTO COOLER TEMPS THRU
MON/TUE OF NEXT WEEK AS WAS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED TO BE WARMER.
THERE HAS BEEN A TREND TO SHIFT THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR
NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN CANADA WITH A MORE MODIFIED
PACIFIC/NW TERRITORIES OF CANADA AIR MASS IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE CHGS TO
THIS PATTERN SEEMS TO BE RELATED TO THE WEST COAST UPPER LOW WHICH
WAS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE SW U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS HAS BEEN
REPLACED BY AN UPPER RIDGE WHICH MEANS THE PERSISTENT NW FLOW
ACROSS WESTERN CANADA/NORTHERN U.S. WILL LIKELY CONTINUE. THIS
PATTERN CHG ACROSS THE WEST COAST WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IF
MODELS DECIDE TO MOVE BACK TOWARD AN UPPER LOW.

ONE THING IS FOR SURE...THE PERSISTENT NW FLOW WILL PROVIDE FOR
FAST MOVING SHRTWV/S AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW. TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THESE SHRTWV/S ARE TOO PROBLEMATIC AND THEREFORE CHC
POPS LOOK REASONABLE UNTIL A DAY OR SO BEFORE THEY AFFECT OUR
REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY CHG THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS TO DRY... OR A CHC OF LIGHT SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REFLECT
THE NON-DIURNAL TREND WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS ARND
MIDNIGHT...OR EARLY IN THE MORNING DEPENDING UPON THE TIMING OF
THESE SHRTWV/S AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH CHC/S OF LIGHT
SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE AIR MASS AND/OR
PWATS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CHC/S WILL BE LOW.

ANOTHER ITEM OF INTEREST IS THE DEEPER SNOW PACK ACROSS CANADA
WHICH IS A BIT EARLIER THAN IN PREVIOUS YEARS. THIS WILL LIKELY
PLAY AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN THE WEEKS AHEAD FOR COLD SNAPS AND ANY
TYPE OF REBOUND OF WARMER TEMPS FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

THE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON...BUT 3500-7000 CEILINGS ARE ALREADY BEING REPORTED NEAR
THE MN/SD/ND BORDERS AND THESE CLOUDS WILL STEADILY ADVANCE WEST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A VERY LIGHT SNOW EVENT IS EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN THIS EVENING. BEFORE IT IS ALL SAID AND DONE
KAXN/KSTC/KMSP/KRNH/KEAU COULD ALL SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. KRWF HAS THE BEST SHOT AT IFR VISIBILITY AS SLIGHTLY
MORE SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MN AND NORTHERN IOWA.

KMSP...

THERE COULD BE A COUPLE HOUR WINDOW THIS EVENING WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW. WE DO THINK THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
SNOW WILL PASS AT LEAST A COUPLE COUNTIES SOUTH OF THE AIRPORT.
KMSP MIGHT JUST END UP WITH SOME FLURRIES WITH LITTLE RESTRICTION
IN VIS/CIGS. WE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP WITH 5SM VISIBILITY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. AGAIN...THE SNOW SHOULDN`T LAST LONG EVEN IF IT
DOES MAKE IT TO THE AIRPORT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE MVFR/-SN WED NIGHT. WINDS W 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS SW 5 KTS.
FRI...VFR. MVFR AND -SN POSSIBLE. WINDS NE 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MNZ054>070-073>076-082-083-091.

     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MNZ041-042-047>049.

     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR MNZ043>045-050>053.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ077-
     078-084-085-092-093.

WI...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR WIZ014>016.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
     FOR WIZ023>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...CLF