Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 281754

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1254 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

No significant changes to the forecast. Decreased cloud cover
slightly across the east and adjusted temperatures up about a degree
above forecast guidance. Today will be another dry, seasonable day
with light winds winds.

If the lack of clouds on Thursday was any indication, today will be
mostly sunny aside from some thin cirrus moving overhead. For that
reason decreased cloud cover for today. Forecast soundings off the
GFS and NAM continue to show scattered to broken clouds atop the
boundary layer during the afternoon, but this appears to be overdone
based on what occurred Thursday. In return, increased temperatures
about a degree above the guidance since it over-achieved on Thursday
and the same air mass remains in place across the region.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

Simply put, the upcoming weekend looks incredible. Expect light
winds and plenty of sun as high pressure centers itself across the
St Croix river valley. Dewpoints will be in the upper 50s Saturday,
and lower 60s on Sunday. A frontal boundary will be the focus for
thunderstorms across the Dakotas, but this boundary will weaken as
it reaches Minnesota and especially Wisconsin, so not anticipating
widespread convection. Instead expect a few showers and
thunderstorms to develop, but most locations to stay dry.

Looking ahead, this boundary will become a bit more defined and move
through the region on Tuesday, bringing the best chance for showers
and thunderstorms. The GFS remains the wettest model, depicting a
solid line of storms moving across the region on Tuesday, but even
the ECMWF seems to have become a bit more bullish on the chance for
precip. Since this event is still 4 days away did not get too
carried away with pops, but did increase them slightly above the
guidance. This boundary will push well south of the region on
Wednesday setting up another streak of dry and sunny weather, but
heat and humidity will build heading toward next weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

VFR conditions are the rule. The upper air pattern essentially
remains unchanged with a ridge over the west and MN/WI in a
northwest flow pattern through the weekend. At the surface...
high pressure located over Lake Superior will slowly meander south
southwestward toward southwest WI over the next 48 hours. As a
result surface winds will become more southeasterly over the next
36 hours. During the overnight hours winds will be calm or light
and variable. A few mid and high level clouds primarily over sw MN
due to increased moisture in the area. Remainder of the area will
see clear skies.


VFR conditions through the period.

Sun...VFR with very small chance of -TSRA. Wind SW at 10 kt
Mon...VFR. Wind SW at 05kt.
Tue...VFR with -TSRA possible. Wind SW at 05kt.




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