Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KCHS 231715
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
115 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. A WEAK
AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...COOL/DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION
AS A CUTOFF MID/UPPER LVL LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS FURTHER OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST. AS A RESULT...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED
IN REGARDS TO A DRY WEATHER PATTERN...BUT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
BACK TO NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FULL SUN DURING PEAK
HEATING HOURS ALONG WITH A WEAK DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT
SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S OVER MOST LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...INLAND AREAS SHOULD DECOUPLE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING BUT LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS COULD KEEP GOING INTO THE
NIGHT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST...INCLUDING BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WEST OF U.S. 17 WITH
SOME NORMALLY COLDER RURAL/INLAND AREAS NEARING 40 DEGREES BY DAWN
ON THURSDAY. LOW MOST AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AWAY FROM THE
OCEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A SHALLOW/WEAK RIDGE WILL START THE DAY...THEN AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE DAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY BEEN A LITTLE DIFFERENT WITH THE STRENGTH...TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE. EITHER WAY...EXPECT THIS UPPER TROUGH TO
COME THROUGH DRY DUE TO VERY LITTLE AVAILABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LIGHT NORTH TO
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW. WITH THE SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE PERFECT FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING...BUT GUIDANCE STILL GOING MID 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S
COAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...GENERALLY NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH
WEST-NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. CONTINUED DRY WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIP. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SHOULD GET MINS BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL SETUP LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AND A GRADUAL
RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEN MAINLY NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS
ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION BY THURSDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE PROGRESSION AND STRENGTH OF THIS
TROUGH DIFFERENTLY. HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO SEE THE ECMWF SOLUTION
THIS MORNING...SO MAINLY GOING WITH GFS. THE GFS NOW LOOKS WETTER
THURSDAY AS IT DEEPENS THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND DRAWS IN
BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. HAVE KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BOTH DAYS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR BOTH KCHS AND KSAV.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE OVER
THE WATERS FROM THE NORTHWEST. IN GENERAL...NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WHILE A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT
FIELD REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR A CUTOFF LOW POSITIONED OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2-3 FT...HIGHEST IN OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX TONIGHT WITH
A WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN IN PLACE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL.

NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS 15 KT OR
LESS AND SEAS 3 TO 4 FT OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE GENERALLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW. A SLIGHT SURGE IN THE WINDS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK COLD FRONT.
BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH
LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...RFM
AVIATION...DPB/RFM
MARINE...DPB/RFM






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.