Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 231736
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1136 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

.AVIATION...
VFR continues with cirrus streaming across from the southwest.
Breezes will be from the north to northeast through period. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 903 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2018/

UPDATE...
Visible satellite imagery shows a scattered to broken band of
cirrus moving across the Interstate 10 corridor from the
southwest. Short term relative humidity fields indicate this band
will persist through most of the day and have increased sky cover
across this corridor as a result. High temperatures may be a
degree or two lower than previously forecast in this area
depending on how thick this band remains through the day, but
still expect the region to top out in the low to mid 60s. The
final update for this morning was to lower dew points and relative
humidities through the afternoon as very dry air remains in place
across the region. 14

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Not a lot of issues expected for SE TX the next couple of days as
high pressure remains large and in charge even as it slides slow-
ly east with time. Temperatures should run at/near climatological
norms today/tomorrow (highs in the lower 60s and lows in the 40s)
as light east winds prevail.

As the surface high moves further east and the upper flow becomes
more SW with time (in response to the trof digging out in the lee
of the southern Rockies), we should begin to see warmer temperat-
ures and increasing POPS across the region for Fri/Sat. A distur-
bance embedded in this mid/upper flow is expected to remain north
of the CWFA, but its proximity will help to strengthen the return
of low-level moisture/onshore winds during this time. WAA showers
will be possible along the coast Fri morning at the earliest, but
will be more likely Fri night/Sat morning. All of this is setting
the stage for the passage of the next cold front Sat night. Scat-
tered showers accompanying the front are expected to move quickly
out of the area by Sun morning. There are some discrepancies with
temperatures/strength of the CAA in the wake of this boundary and
will be favoring the cooler ECMWF MOS numbers for now. 41

MARINE...
Offshore winds finally diminishing as high pressure moves in from
the west and weakens. Winds of 5-10 knots near shore and 10-
15 knots offshore should be the norm the next couple of days as high
pressure weakens and slides east. Winds should turn to the
northeast and east in response Wednesday then southeasterly
Thursday. Winds should also increase Thursday as an upper level
trough over Mexico/WTX lifts out to the northeast by Friday morning.
Sea fog may be possible Friday and Saturday before a front pushes
through the region Saturday late afternoon or night. Some
uncertainty on the strength of the front at this time. SCA
possible in the wake of the front. 45

&&

FIRE WEATHER...
Dry profile and expect with heating today that dewpoints inland
should drop fairly quickly. Going below guidance for dewpoints given
the aforementioned profile. Although RH values this afternoon will
likely fall to 19-25 percent across the west and 25-30 east the
winds should be limited to 10 mph or less for much of the 9 am-4 pm
window. Lighter winds Wednesday but still dry. Dewpoints climbing
Thursday. 45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      65  37  63  38  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)              63  38  63  38  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)            63  46  59  46  58 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...14
Aviation/Marine...31



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