Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 051017
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
517 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGING EVIDENT OVER THE AREA WITH SUPPRESSED CONVECTION AND
LIGHT/CALM WINDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG. SHOWERS THAT HAVE FORMED
WERE CONFINED TO THE AREA AROUND AND EAST OF MATAGORDA BAY SO FAR.
AMDAR SOUNDINGS AND GOES PW SHOWING THE MOISTURE STILL PRESENT
(1.7-1.95") THOUGH A LITTLE LESS THAN YESTERDAY IN SOME AREAS
WHILE A LITTLE HIGHER TO THE NORTH. THIS BODES WELL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS BY MID MORNING OVER THE AREA AND EVENTUALLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS WONT BE FAST MOVERS SO A FEW AREAS MAY SEE
AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN BEFORE THEY MOVE ON. A S/W DROPS DOWN
THROUGH LA SUNDAY AND THIS MAY LEAD TO A LITTLE GREATER COVERAGE
IN THE EASTERN AREAS AS OMEGA INCREASES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. UPPER LOW OVER
NE GULF STRETCHES OUT AND RETROGRADES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND
SHOULD HELP TO BRING IN MORE HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM THE N AND NE AND
KEEP RAIN CHANCES GOING AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FROM 500-700MB
WEAKENS AND PROFILES BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE TO THUNDERSTORMS. WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND WELL
INTO MIDWEEK BEFORE A CHANGE APPROACHES. WEDNESDAY A SURGE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE GULF SPREADS INTO THE REGION. A FAIRLY
STRONG EARLY SEPTEMBER COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AND SHOULD ARRIVE INTO SETX WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH LATE
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING FRONT FRIDAY. BUT THESE
BOUNDARIES COMBINED WITH RICH GULF MOISTURE AND PACIFIC MOISTURE
STREAMING IN ON THE SUBTROPICAL JET SHOULD LEAD TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUDS/COOLER TEMPERATURES/SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE `WETTEST`
PERIOD WILL PROBABLY COME BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE ON THE SOUTHERNMOST EXTENT OF THE FRONT IS NOT
VERY HIGH BUT SHOULD AT LEAST REACH THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF SETX.
TEMPERATURES DROP BY 3-5 DEGREES FROM THE WARM START OF HOLIDAY
WEEKEND TO END OF THE WEEK WITH THE FRONT BUT DON`T GET YOUR HOPES
UP FOR A BIG COOL DOWN...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT. HEAVY RAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE A
DECENT BET...ECMWF BRINGS IN A S/W ACROSS TEXAS THAT STALLS AS
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AMPLIFIES AND ENHANCES DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.

45

&&
.MARINE...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SITTING JUST OFF THE COAST /GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY
SHOWING PWATS IN THE 1.6-1.8 INCH RANGE/ SHOULD PROVIDE FOR SLIGHTLY
LESS SHOWER COVERAGE THIS MORNING THAN WHAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE FOR THE MARINE AREAS THROUGH THE DAY... WITH AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE AROUND THE BAYS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND... ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW PROMOTING SEAS IN
THE 1 TO 3 FT RANGE. A RETROGRADING UPPER LOW MAY INCREASE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE MARINE AREAS LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. LOOKING AHEAD... AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      96  75  96  75  96 /  20  10  20  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              94  76  95  76  94 /  40  10  40  10  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            90  81  90  81  89 /  30  20  30  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...14



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