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000
FXUS64 KHGX 161726
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1226 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.AVIATION...
SW to S winds this afternoon could get gusty. Some sites could
see a SHRA and/or possible TSRA. Quiet overnight except CLL/UTS/CXO
areas where there is some potential for mainly MVFR ceilings and/or
visibilities. Think we might see less SHRA coverage tomorrow, so
VFR for a majority of the day.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017/

UPDATE...
Another hot day with some isolated to scattered showers is on tap
for SE Texas today. Highs are forecast in the 90s once again this
afternoon. Winds are a little more elevated than yesterday, which
will help generate some mixing this afternoon and help keep heat
indices generally below heat advisory criteria. May see a site or
two hit 108 along the coast as the sea breeze pushes through, but
overall coverage of >= 108 should be isolated at best. Otherwise,
a few streamer showers are possible this morning with some
isolated thunderstorms mixed in this afternoon. Coverage should be
slightly better across the southeastern zones, similar to
yesterday with perhaps a tad more coverage. 11

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Early this morning an upper trough extended from the Northern
Plains into CA. This has helped weaken the upper ridge over Mexico
with SE Texas now on the western edge of the upper high pressure
ridge centered around the FL/GA border. An upper low located over
was over the southern Gulf of Mexico. Today and Thursday the upper
low will drift westward as the ridge builds westward as well. The
result will be an increase in chances for showers and
thunderstorms today. Even as the upper low moves west over the
lower Texas coast, the building ridge aloft will keep rain chances
low over SE Texas on Thursday. The models continue to have
chances for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday
through Sunday.

For Monday and Tuesday of next week, the GFS and ECMWF both still
have an inverted upper trough moving westward across the NW Gulf
into SE Texas. This will help bring slightly lower daytime
temperatures and better coverage of showers and thunderstorms.
The two models then differ on what will happen with the upper
trough but rain chances should continue into Wednesday.

40

MARINE...

Overall there is not much change in the forecast for the Upper TExas
Coast. Southerly winds should continue for the next several days
into the weekend. Winds have increased to SCEC levels overnight and
should continue this morning. There should be another nocturnal
increase tonight going into Thursday morning. Winds should slacken
to around 10-15 knots during the day. By the end of the week winds
look to decrease by about 5 knots with 10-15 knots overnight with 10
knots or less during the day. Seas currently running 3 to 4 feet and
look for those seas to slowly subside to around 2 to 3 feet for the
weekend.

Tide levels look to be near normal or a half foot above.

Overpeck

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      98  78  99  76  99 /  10   0  10  10  20
Houston (IAH)              95  80  96  78  96 /  20  10  20  10  20
Galveston (GLS)            90  84  91  83  90 /  20  10  20  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until midnight CDT tonight for the
     following zones: Brazoria...Chambers...Galveston...
     Matagorda.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through Thursday morning for
     the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
     Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High
     Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$