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000
FXUS64 KHGX 171130
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
630 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2014

.AVIATION...
EARLY MORNING OVC MVFR DECK AROUND 2500 FEET IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL
BECOME SKC FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. LIGHTER WINDS AROUND SUNSET WILL
COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AND
WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CDT MON MAR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ST. PADDY DAY`S WEATHER WILL BEGIN UNDER PARTIAL CLOUDINESS THAT
WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON...
MORNING LOWER 40S SLOWLY WARMING TO AROUND 60 F UNDER WEAKENING
NORTH BREEZES. SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS WILL BE TEMPERATURE-ONLY
PROGNOSTICATIONS PER NIL TO VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO BE EAST OF EASTERN TEXAS BY MID-DAY...AN
ANCHORED MID-UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL ENSURE STABLE
CONDITIONS. SINGLE DIGIT 85H TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION WILL MIX
DOWN THROUGH THE DAY...AS WILL A MID-LAYER DRIER AIR MASS LOWERING
SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO AREAWIDE 30S...TO MAKE FOR A COMFORTABLE
MILD LOWER HUMIDITY DAY. SURFACE RIDGING THAT SLIDES SOUTH INTO
THE WESTERN GULF TONIGHT WILL DIMINISH NORTHERLIES...VARIABLE TO
CALM THROUGH TUESDAY`S SUNRISE. COUPLE THIS LIGHT WIND FIELD WITH
STARRY OVERNIGHT SKIES AND THIS WILL PRODUCE INTERIOR LOWER 40 F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES...LOWER 50S ALONG THE COAST. TUESDAY WILL BE
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR A COUPLE OF REASONS. WARMER
SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW UNDER SUNNY SKIES WILL INCREASE
10-5H THICKNESS VALUES BY AROUND 100 M...AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE
TO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE READINGS FLIRTING WITH 80 F...15 TO 20
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. A HIGH CELL DESCENDING FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WILL AID IN PUSHING A WEAK WIND-SHIFTING BOUNDARY INTO THE
CWA LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS BOUNDARY WILL
WASH OUT OVER EAST TEXAS...IT WILL HAVE A NOTICEABLE AFFECT UPON
THE REGION AS IT WILL REGULATE MID TO LATE WEEK TEMPERATURE AND
HUMIDITY BEHAVIOR. NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY THREE
THROUGH SIX PERIOD AS MANY WILL COME IN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
THEIR RESPECTIVE CLIMATE NUMBERS. A NEAR-ZONAL UPPER FLOW PATTERN
WILL EVENTUALLY INTRODUCE MORE CLOUDINESS AS EASTERN PACIFIC
MOISTURE STREAMS ACROSS IN THE FORM OF MID-UPPER LEVEL CI/ST.

ALTHOUGH RUN-TO-RUN `CONSISTENCY` HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT...THE MOST
RECENT ENSEMBLE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF PUSHING A FRONT INTO
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT 5H TROUGH IN EITHER THE
GFS OR ECMWF SOLUTION...BUT BOTH HAVE A MID-LOWER BOUNDARY MAKING
IT TO THE COAST BY LATE SATURDAY. AS OF NOW...DUE TO THE LACK OF
ANY UPPER SUPPORT...THIS FRONT APPEARS TO TAKE ON MORE OF A BACKDOOR
NATURE AS ONSHORE WINDS TAKE A MORE NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION SUNDAY.
A COUPLE OF LATE WEEK DAYS OF ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE
LEVELS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT UNDER-THE-CAP SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ALLOW
SEA FOG TO RE-DEVELOP OVER OUR RELATIVELY COOLER NEARSHORE WATERS.
INCREASED PVA FROM WEAK SOUTHERN PLAINS DISTURBANCES CLIPPING US
ON THEIR SOUTHEASTERN-TREK INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WILL KEEP EARLY
NEXT WEEK (LOW END) CHANCE POPS IN PLACE. 31

MARINE...
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE TODAY. BY TUESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AND STRENGTHEN. CAUTION FLAGS MIGHT BE
NEEDED. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      62  41  80  46  71 /  10   0   0   0  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              62  43  77  50  74 /  10   0   0   0  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            60  53  71  57  71 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT
     20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION/MARINE...42