National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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FXUS64 KHGX 072346
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
546 PM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREA RADAR ARE SHOWING VERY LIGHT RETURNS MAINLY TOWARDS KCLL
WHICH MAY BE IN FACT BE DRIZZLE. TEMPS RIGHT NOW ARE JUST BELOW
FREEZING AT KCLL SO CONCERNED ABOUT FZDZ. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. CIGS JUST ABOUT AT ALL TERMINALS WILL BE LOW
MVFR OR HIGH IFR. PROBABLY SEE MOST TERMINALS GO IFR AT SOME POINT
TONIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER RH INCREASES. THINK DZ OR -RA POSSIBLE
AT ALL SITES TONIGHT WITH PERHAPS ONE MORE PASSING SHORT WAVE.
EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO END BY LATE MORNING. CIGS MAY IMPROVE DURING
THE DAY TOMORROW BUT LIKELY STAY AT MVFR LEVELS.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CST SAT DEC 7 2013/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST SURFACE OBS SHOW NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
STILL BELOW FREEZING. THIS WOULD INCLUDE BRAZOS...BURLESON AND
MADISON COUNTY. HAVE HAD SPOTTY VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH TRACE AMOUNTS...LESS THAN ONE HUDREDTH...AT
MOST OF THE REPORTING STATIONS. STILL NO REPORTS OF ANY ICING IN
THOSE AREAS.

TONIGHT...EXPECT NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH
CONTINUED VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AT TIMES. CANT RULE OUT A FEW
ICY PATCHES IN THOSE FAR NW COUNTIES BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY OR ABOVE FREEZING. IF WAS CONFIDENT OF MEASURABLE
PRECIP IN THOSE SUBFREEZING AREAS...WOULD CONSIDER A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY BUT FOR NOW WILL HAVE MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
CHANCE IN FORECAST BUT NOT GO WITH IT. EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO
WATCH TRENDS IN THE RADAR AND SURFACE OBS TO SEE IF ONE MAY BE
NEEDED. SO FAR PRECIPITATION HAS CORRELATED WELL WITH LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION...ISENTROPIC LIFT. MODELS WHICH HAVE BEEN
SHOWING FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIP OVER THE GULF HAVE NOT VERIFIED
WELL.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...EXPECT A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SO ANY
PRECIPITATION...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT IF ANY...WOULD BE IN THE
FORM OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH REINFORCING
COLD AIR SHOULD PASS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD ALLOW BELOW
FREEZING CONDITIONS TO COME BACK INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA AGAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL HAVE SIMILAR SET UP RIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE...WARM AIR
ALOFT...AND MOISTURE GENERALLY SHALLOW...SO WERE LOOKING FOR
PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...WITH THE FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT GENERALLY CONFINED
TO FAR NW COUNTIES TONIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT...BUT MOST AREAS
DRY OR ABOVE FREEZING.

NO REAL WARM UP THROUGH THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST ALTHOUGH GRADUAL
WARMING TREND MID TO LATE WEEK WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE
IN THE 40S AND THEN 50S WHICH WILL SEEM WARM BY COMPARISON WITH
TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE NEAR THE LOWEST ON RECORD FOR
TODAY. 46

MARINE...
WINDS HAVE DRASTICALLY DECREASED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS CONTINUED TO RELAX. FOR THIS REASON HAVE LET
THE SCA EXPIRE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
TOMORROW AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RAPIDLY PULLS OFF EASTWARDS. ON
TUESDAY A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHWARDS
CAUSING ANOTHER INCREASE OF THE WIND SPEED OVER THE WATERS. THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS NOT NEAR AS STRONG AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED
IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS... BUT STILL WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR WINDS
TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA TUESDAY. 23

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      31  42  37  46  33 /  30  20  20  30  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              34  43  43  52  41 /  30  30  20  40  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            40  46  49  56  48 /  30  30  30  40  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
