Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KHGX 260458
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1158 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.AVIATION...
MVFR ceilings generally between 1500-2500 feet continue to
overspread the Southeast Texas terminals this evening. Expect
MVFR conditions to persist through mid to late Thursday morning as
moisture remains trapped beneath a low level inversion. Initial
inspection of 00z guidance does not offer any more confidence in
how shower/thunderstorm development will play out for Thursday,
with messy southwest flow aloft allowing subtle disturbances to
move across the region and trigger periods of rain. It does appear
one of these disturbances is located over northwestern Mexico late
this evening, as evidenced by enhanced thunderstorm development
over the higher terrain. Could see some of this activity hold
together and reach College Station by 12z, but drier low and mid
level air may only result in virga. Additional showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop during the day as additional
disturbances move near the region during peak heating, with a
brief break in activity possible Thursday evening before a
thunderstorm complex makes a run for the region on Friday morning
(with an extended period of TSRA possible for the Southeast Texas
terminals after 27/12z).

Huffman

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
Light precip/virga across the north has ended and any other precip
should hold off until after 2 or 3 am. Shortwave moving through
Mexico this evening will bring increasing lift and may see some
SHRA develop in the vicinity of CLL after midnight to 2 am window
then perhaps transition to a mix of showers and thunderstorms if
the cap doesn`t hold which it may well do so until close to
sunrise. Temperatures are holding on the money and other than to
lower pops and up cloud cover thanks to expansive high clouds and
lower deck streaming in from the Gulf the changes for the
overnight period were minor.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      75  82  73  82  70 /  30  70  40  80  50
Houston (IAH)              76  84  75  84  72 /  20  50  30  60  40
Galveston (GLS)            78  82  78  82  77 /  10  40  20  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 5 AM CDT Thursday FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
     Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High
     Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...45
Aviation/Marine...14



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.