Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 020016
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
716 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE DISCUSSION FOR UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOWERED POPS THIS EVENING AS FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. KGLS WINDS
HAVE CONTINUED TO VEER AND NOW HAVE A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THEM.
NEW ZONES OUT SHORTLY. 23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SEE AVIATION.

AVIATION...

AN ATYPICAL SUMMER EVE ACROSS SE TX WITH NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE LOCATED NEAR AND NORTH OF UTS AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH
TRENDS TO SEE HOW FAR SOUTH THEY PUSH TONIGHT. EXPECT NORTHERLY
WINDS TOMORROW AND LITTLE CHANCE OF INLAND CONVECTION. 33

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC BOUNDARY CURRENTLY AOA AN EAST-WEST LINE FROM PALACIOS TO
SARGENT TO ABOUT 20NM SOUTH OF GLS...WITH THE BULK OF THE RE-
DEVELOPING PCPN ALONG THE WRN HALF OF THE LINE. OUTFLOWS/SEA-
BREEZE ALSO ABOUNDING...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE SUBSIDENT
AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY IS HOLDING OVER
MOST INLAND LOCATIONS SO FAR. WILL KEEP WITH THE TREND OF THE
HIGHER POPS IN PROXIMITY TO THE SFC BOUNDARY THROUGH THE EVE/
OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT LOWER THE OVERALL NUMBERS.

MODELS IN DECENT CONSENSUS WITH THE FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE BY
TOMORROW. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR/LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD KEEP
THINGS DRY ACROSS MOST OF SE TX...BUT AM A BIT LOATHE TO DROP
POPS COMPLETELY FOR COASTAL ZONES/WATERS FOR TOMORROW (DURING
THE DAY). THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGED MOVES BACK ONSHORE TOMORROW
NIGHT INTO SUN AND HAVE KEPT WITH THE IDEA OF INCREASING POPS
FOR THIS TIME FRAME. POPS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A GENERALLY DAY-
TIME HEATING/SEABREEZE DRIVEN PCPN PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPPER  TROF AXIS LINGERING JUST EAST OF
THE REGION. WE SHOULD SEE LOWER POPS/WARMER TEMPS BY THE LAT-
TER PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST.

AS FOR TEMPS...A SOMEWHAT ATYPICAL START FOR AUGUST COURTESY
OF THIS WEAK FRONT. BETWEEN THAT AND THE CLOUDS/PCPN...THESE
LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK
END BEFORE REBOUNDING THE START OF NEXT WEEK. 41

MARINE...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM LA ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
WILL PERSIST THRU THE WEEKEND AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCT TSTMS
(SOME STRONG CELLS POSSIBLE AT TIMES). WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE (DEPENDENT ON POSITION OF MEANDERING BOUNDARY)
AND SEAS WILL REMAIN <3FT. A MORE PREVALENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RESUME EARLY TO MID PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      70  92  71  93  73 /  10  10  10  20  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              71  91  73  92  74 /  10  10  20  30  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            77  89  79  89  78 /  20  20  20  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...23


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