Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 282103

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
403 PM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

Upper ridging planted over western Texas has influenced this
recently benign and warm weather pattern so...with this ridge`s
eastern expansion over East Texas...there is little change
anticipated over the weekend. Recent 13-14 C 85H temperatures are
forecast to increase into the upper teens over the weekend. This
will promote slightly higher 1000-500mb layer thickness and...with
plenty of sun and subsidence...surface temperatures will climb up
into the above normal upper 80s over the far interior counties.
Weekend rain chances will be focused over the Gulf waters...mainly
showers with an isolated thunderstorm not out of the question.

Halloween conditions will be of partly cloudy skies...mid 80
afternoon temperatures will fall into the middle to upper 70s
shortly after sunset. Rain probabilities will begin to increase
early Tuesday...low end chances centered over the western CWA. The
upper ridging axis will transition to east of the area and a more
moist central Gulf air mass will slide around its southwestern
flank into the Matagorda Bay region. Weak shortwave disturbances
passing up within southwesterly steering flow may be enough to
kick off more areawide precipitation during the warmth of the day
both Tuesday and Wednesday. As of now...Tue/Wed (south)western
forecast area rain/storm probs are moderately high (30-40%) but
QPF is relatively average half an inch or under for those
that are fortunate enough to receive this needed rainfall. Both
the GFS and Euro dig down an upper (closed off) low over So Cal
Wednesday and then proceed to wash it out into a
wave trough over the Desert SW by Friday AM. Am not too overly
confident with this scenario since it is completely different from
yesterday`s runs pulling a late week broad upper low into the
western Plains. Thus...after a possibly more wet Tuesday and
Wednesday...the lack of any significant shortwaves and a drying
column equates to falling back to slight (or under) POPS towards
the first weekend of November. 31


Expecting onshore winds to continue as high pressure at the surface
ridges into the Upper Texas coastal waters. Seas will approach
caution levels through the period. Showers and thunderstorms over
the open waters of the Gulf beyond 60 nm may work their way into the
offshore waters later this afternoon or tonight. 40


College Station (CLL)      62  87  63  87  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
Houston (IAH)              65  86  64  87  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
Galveston (GLS)            74  82  73  82  73 /  10  10  10  10  10




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