Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 242358
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
658 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2016

.AVIATION...
Scattered thunderstorms that formed within the late day heat and
along the local bay breeze (IAH) are now dwindling with loss of
heating...SGR the only terminal affected by VCTS at the bottom of
the hour. The western periphery of southeastern U.S. upper ridging
kept today`s convection to only scattered in areal coverage.
Increasing easterly moisture along southeastern steering flow
and relatively weaker ridging will maintain at least Thursday
afternoon VCTS. Short lived MVFR decks/visbies with isolated IFR
between 25/10Z - 25/13Z when winds go calm under mainly clear
skies. Mid to late morning streamer showers may come across GLS
and LBX as the higher moisture axis over LA shifts west and
regional pressures lower. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

Isolated showers currently moving slowly inland should fizzle out
quickly after the loss of daytime heating. Although today was on
the drier side for most of the area, higher rain chances will
return tomorrow as easterly flow over the northern Gulf will slide
higher PWs back in over SE TX. Several small disturbances will
travel westward underneath the ridge situated over the SE CONUS,
elevating the potential for showers and thunderstorms across SE TX
through at least the weekend.

Today was quite hot, with the Angleton ASOS reaching a heat index
of 108 briefly earlier this afternoon. Slightly cooler
temperatures and higher cloud cover should keep heat indices near
or below 100 through at least early next week.  11

&&

TROPICS...
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been
investigating Invest 99L today and have not been able to find a
closed center. Current Tropical Weather Outlook from the National
Hurricane Center has given 99L an 80% chance of development over
the next 5 days. There is a chance that 99L may make its way into
the Gulf of Mexico early next week. However, models have not been
very consistent from run to run or with each other, and it is
still far too early to tell where this system may end up in the
long term. For now, take this as a reminder that late August
through early October is the climatological peak of hurricane
season, and everyone should keep up with forecasts from the
National Hurricane Center and review their hurricane preparedness
plans regularly. 11

&&

AVIATION...
Earlier thinking that the CAP/slightly drier airmass was going to be
the main factors in limited precipitation development this afternoon
has kind of gone by the wayside. Will keep/add VCTS for UTS/CXO/IAH/
HOU/SGR for the rest of the afternoon. Did add TEMPO groups for MVFR
CIGS/VIS overnight for some sites for early tomorrow morning...along
with the mention of VCSH. Per latest WV loops, we are seeing quite a
bit of moisture moving in from the east, and with daytime heating we
should see widely scattered/scattered TSRA coverage by tomorrow
afternoon/evening. 41

MARINE...
Not a lot of changes with the marine forecast as high pressure
lingers over the northern Gulf. This pattern will help to maintain
light to moderate SE winds the next few days. As the high nudges
east with time, we should see a more easterly surface flow during
the weekend. However, speeds will remain around moderate levels.
Not anticipating any advisories/caution flags these next several
days.

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to enter the Gulf
of Mexico early next week. There is a great deal of uncertainty with
regard to the movement and intensity of this feature at this time...
mariners should be prepared for possibly stronger winds, higher seas
beginning as early as next Tues. All marine interests should keep up
with the latest forecasts. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      75  91  74  89  73 /  10  30  20  50  20
Houston (IAH)              76  91  75  89  74 /  10  50  40  50  20
Galveston (GLS)            81  88  79  87  79 /  10  40  50  50  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...42
Aviation/Marine...31



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