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000
FXUS64 KHGX 300855
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
355 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Surface high pressure extends from the western Great lakes into
Texas. Considerably drier air has moved into the region and
surface dew points have fallen into the lower 50s. Temperatures at
300 AM ranged from 53 degrees at Conroe to 70 degrees at
Galveston. Dry air in place should allow for a large diurnal range
in temperatures today and fcst soundings support high temperatures
in the lower 80s this afternoon. Other some cirrus this afternoon,
skies are expected to remain mostly sunny. Slightly higher dew
points are expected Sat/Sun and overnight lows should begin to
warm. The surface high shifts east late Sunday and onshore winds
will return. A weak disturbance coupled with weak surface
convergence could bring some showers to the coastal waters on
Sunday but the depth of the moisture looks shallow and only a few
sprinkles are expected.

Temperatures and humidity levels will be on the increase next week
as SE winds bring slightly higher moisture back into the area and
500 mb heights build from 582 dm to 588 dm. 850 temps also warm so
above normal temperatures are expected Tues-Thurs. The GFS not
showing much of a front for Thursday as upper level energy remains
well to the north. The ECMWF is a bit deeper with the upper trough
and develops a weak surface low over the southern plains. The low
will move east and drag a weak cold front through the region on
Thursday. Not sure the front will get here since the upper level
support is so far to the north but will maintain continuity with
the previous forecast until the GFS and ECMWF come into better
agreement. As such will leave 20/30 PoPs in the grids on
Wed/Thurs. Split the difference between the MEX and EC numbers for
max tempseratures. 43

&&

.MARINE...
Bit of a tight pressure gradient combined with cold air advection
has led to caution conditions over the Gulf waters and the lower
half of Galveston Bay early this morning. Agree with the models as
to the diminishing of the wind speeds this morning and will drop the
SCEC at 6 AM. Slight higher winds should redevelop again tonight;
however, do not think these will reach caution levels since high
pressure will be more over the marine areas.

A couple of days of east winds will help usher in the new week
starting on Sunday. This may lead to slightly elevated tide levels
by Monday - at least it something to watch out for if the winds
become stronger than currently forecasted. The current model
consensus for winds both days has speeds between 10 and 15 knots;
although, the GFS had slightly stronger winds. Would lead toward the
stronger output if the upper level shortwave trough that is expected
to move overhead becomes stronger than forecast, also. Any elevated
tide levels should be short-lived as a model consensus has the wind
direction going from east during the day on Monday to southeast
Monday night.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      81  60  83  61  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)              82  61  85  65  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)            80  72  82  73  83 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 6 AM CDT early this
     morning FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Coastal waters from
     Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal
     waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston
     Bay...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from
     20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...43