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000
FXUS64 KHUN 240142
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
842 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 840 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Clouds have finally cleared the entire TN Valley with mostly clear
skies forecast for the rest of the evening. A secondary re-inforcing
front is currently located just west of the MS River and will be
moving across the area tonight. What we will see is a brief drop in
winds, which has allowed temps to quickly tumble into the lower 50s
and maybe a few sites drop into the 40s before midnight. Then as the
front approaches winds increase and that should allow for some
mixing, which should warm temps by a degree or so. But CAA occurring
behind the front will send temps into the low to mid 40s by sunrise.
Made adjustments to temp trends to reflect the frontal passage.
Otherwise, the forecast is in good shape.

.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

A reality check will be upon us on Tuesday in the wake of this next
frontal passage. Gusty NW winds should increase into the 15-20 mph
range during the late morning before subsiding in the afternoon.
With cold air advection occurring during the course of the day, high
temps will only rise into the lower 60s; about 10 degrees below
seasonable norms around 72. Winds should slacken Tuesday evening, as
high pressure builds toward the NW Gulf coast from the Rockies. With
that, lows Tuesday night should cool into the mid/upper 30s. These
temperatures, clear skies, and light winds could be favorable for
patchy frost development before daybreak Wednesday. At this time,
only those colder spots and/or wind sheltered locations would be
susceptible to light frosting. We will hold off on a Frost Advisory
this go around given a great uncertainty and it is not expected till
late tomorrow night. Just in case, those with sensitive vegetation
should take precautions to protect them against frosty conditions.
The area overall will be subject frosts and/or freezes, occurring in
the latter half of October through early/mid November. Wednesday will
continue a cool trend, with high temperatures struggling into the
upper 50s under generally sunny skies.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Clear and not as cool for Wednesday night with lows in the mid 30s
to low 40s. Plenty of sun will help moderate the atmosphere after
the mid week, resulting in high temperatures recovering back into the
mid/upper 60s. Similar conditions are forecast on Friday.

Another system in the westerlies will approach the Tennessee Valley
from the NW late Friday. This system will return rain chances to the
area for the upcoming weekend. Model timing this far out between the
GFS/ECMWF/Canadian were in overall good agreement. Kept the rain
continuing into Saturday, but it should end on Sunday as the system
exits the region and drier air returns. Cold high pressure building
to the SE from Canada will bring cool temperatures for the end of
this week and beginning of the next weekend. Model trends, especially
from the GFS suggest this next system may be even cooler than the
one coming late tonight. Growing season ending chills are just around
the corner.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

The lows clouds the were lingering behind the front have finally
cleared off to the east. Winds begin to shift back to the S/SW this
evening as another front approaches from the NW. This front should
move through the area before 12z with winds shifting to the W/NW
behind it. Expect another breezy day on Tuesday with gusts of
20-25mph possible. VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF
period.


&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Stumpf
SHORT TERM...RSB
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...Stumpf


For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.