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000
FXUS64 KHUN 310333 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
933 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET AND FAIRLY SEASONAL CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE CNTRL TN
VALLEY THIS LATE FRI EVENING...WITH TEMP TRENDS RANGING QUITE A BIT
FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS SRN MID TN TO NEAR 40 ACROSS NW AL. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE OH VALLEY REGION...SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
TEMPS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS...ESPECIALLY IN
RIDGE/VALLEY LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
BEGIN TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE W LATER TONIGHT...AS A
STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH AXIS LIFTS NEWD OUT OF THE DESERT SW. NO
MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING...OTHER THAN
TO REFRESH SOME OF THE CURRENT GRIDS BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 527 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/
FOR 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDS ARE XPCTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO STREAM BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE W LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO SAT.

09

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 328 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/
AMPLE SUN THIS AFTERNOON AND A SLIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZE PROVIDED GOOD
MIXING WHICH ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S
THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME CIRRUS
SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE OF A CIRROSTRATUS DECK OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR TONIGHT.

SATURDAY...THE CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE CA/NV/AZ
BORDER DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO MEXICO DUE TO A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE WESTERLY DUE TO THESE SYSTEMS AND THE THICK PATCH OF
HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD SPREAD
WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD ONLY
ALLOW FOR A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING FROM TODAYS VALUES.

A WEAK UPPER WAVE LIFTS NORTHWARD OUT OF THE RETREATING CUTOFF LOW
WILL GENERATE A SURFACE LOW IN SW TEXAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW
IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT INTERACTS MORE WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE. STRONG WAA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL ALLOW FOR A
GOOD RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
START EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. RAIN WILL SPREAD TO THE ENTIRE REGION BY
LATE MORNING SUNDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THIS SYSTEM NEAR A HALF AN
INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE FORECASTING CHALLENGE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE HOW QUICKLY DOES
COLD AIR FILTER IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING PRECIP AND SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A NARROW WINDOW OF 2 TO 3 HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING WHERE ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE AS THE COLD
AIR ARRIVES FOR A SLEET/SNOW MIX. ADDED A VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF
SNOW/SLEET TO THE GRIDS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD FOR MAINLY NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. GROUND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING AND ANY IMPACTS FROM ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ALONG BRIDGES/OVERPASSES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT ABOVE 40 DEGREES.

DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN ON
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS. THE CUTOFF LOW THAT WAS LINGERING ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO THIS WEEKEND MOVES EAST INTO THE GULF WEDNESDAY BUT
EXACTLY WHERE THIS LOW TRACKS REMAINS UNDETERMINED. MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH A PUSHING ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

STUMPF

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

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