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000
FXUS64 KHUN 112015
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
315 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS...88-D REGIONAL RADARS AND
IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALL INDICATE THAT THE SHORT WAVE WAS
MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH LOUISIANA TOWARD SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS WAS ALSO MOVING
NORTHEAST...WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTENDING FURTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE VICINITY OF THE SHORT WAVE. EXPECT THIS INCREASING
AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS TO MOVE NORTHEAST WITH THE
500 MILLIBAR SHORT WAVE TONIGHT...WITH PRECIP EXPECTED TO BECOME
LIKELY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
PROGRESSIVELY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL PHASE IN WITH THE SHORT WAVE
TO USHER IN DRIER AIR BY WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM THE WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

A STRONG POST FRONTAL LOW LEVEL JET WILL DIG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION...WITH STRONG WINDS NOTED AS PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AFTER 12Z
WEDNESDAY. HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE FORECAST
AREA UNTIL AT LEAST MID-LATE AFTERNOON. A STRONG DRY PUNCH WILL
FURTHER PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIP
ENDING BY AFTER 18Z FROM THE SHOALS...EASTWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AFTER 21Z. TEMPS WILL BE SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING. HAVE SLIGHTLY TRENDED
TEMPS LOWER THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION
ON THURSDAY...WITH TEMPS AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID MARCH
ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER NAM TEMPS FOR
THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST AREA
WILL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AFTER 06Z
FRIDAY...WITH A SLOW RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTH EXPECTED. THE MODELS
ALSO HINT AT AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD NORTHEAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA AND INTO ARKANSAS
AFTER 12Z FRIDAY. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO THE WEST OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE ON FRIDAY WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL...WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPS AROUND THE MID 60S...WHICH WOULD BE NEARLY NORMAL FOR THE AREA.

THE MODELS LATCH ON TO A SHORT WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH IT EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF TEXAS INTO
ARKANSAS BY 12Z SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY.
HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES FOR SATURDAY...WHICH WOULD BE
MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF MODEL PRECIP GUIDANCE AND MOISTURE
PARAMETERS. THE ECMWF MODEL IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE NORTHEAST
PROGRESSION OF THE SHORT WAVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. THE GFS MODEL IS MUCH FASTER WITH THE SHORT
WAVE AND MOVES IT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA MUCH QUICKER AND BY 00Z
SUNDAY. WILL GO ALONG WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION FOR NOW.
HAVE DECIDED TO LINGER THE PRECIP CHANCES INTO MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...WITH NEARLY SEASONABLE TEMPS EXPECTED. WILL GO WITH A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF TEMP MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1231 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014/
FOR 18Z TAFS...MID LVL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM...BUT CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR UNTIL
ARND 00Z. CIGS WILL LOWER AND RAIN CHCS WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED TSRA. MVFR CIGS
WILL QUICKLY DROP TO IFR OVERNIGHT AND COULD DROP BELOW 1KFT AT
TIMES. NEARING 12Z...WIND SPDS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE...LEADING
TO LLWS AND THEN GUSTY SFC WINDS BY MORNING. A SHARP SHIFT FROM SW
WINDS TO NW WINDS WILL OCCUR AS A FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS BTWN
12Z AND THE END OF THE PERIOD. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE BEHIND THE FRONT.

CCC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    57  57  29  49 /  70  50  10   0
SHOALS        59  59  27  50 /  70  50  10   0
VINEMONT      57  57  28  48 /  70  60  10   0
FAYETTEVILLE  54  54  25  48 /  70  50  10   0
ALBERTVILLE   58  58  28  50 /  70  60  10   0
FORT PAYNE    55  55  28  48 /  70  60  10   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

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