Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 301119 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
619 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 401 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/
A DAY OF TRANSITION FROM A HOT/DRY PATTERN TO ONE MORE UNSETTLED...
AS RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE UPPER RIDGE
THAT BROUGHT THE VERY WARM/HOT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION HAS
SHIFTED TO THE SE COAST...IN RESPONSE TO THE NORTHERN STREAM
DIPPING FURTHER SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. THE
WATER VAPOR LOOP DEPICTED A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES HEADED
EASTWARD TOWARD THE PACIFIC NW REGION...SOUTH OF A VORTEX SITUATED
ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA. EAST OF THIS...A FEED OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUED STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. AT THE SURFACE...A SOUTHERLY FLOW WAS ALSO BRINGING DEEPER
LOWER LEVEL GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPOINTS AT OR ABOVE
70F WERE NOTED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. SHOWER ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE SURGE MOVING NORTHWARD WAS APPARENT
VIA REGIONAL RADAR WELL TO OUR SOUTH...AND BEGINNING TO SHOW ON OUR
HYTOP RADAR...S-SW OF THE RDA.

THUS THE WEEKEND TO `END` SUMMER 2014 WILL BE AN UNSETTLED ONE...AS
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGHOUT TODAY AND TONIGHT. GIVEN THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH...HAVE SCATTERED SHOWER
CHANCES THIS MORNING...BECOMING LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS FORECAST PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS RISING AT OR
ABOVE 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THUS GUSTY WINDS IN THE
40-50 MPH RANGE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. IN ADDITION...A BIT MORE SHEAR
WAS FORECAST FOR OUR NW ALABAMA GROUP...SO A STRONG STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. EVEN WITH A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS...THE ON-GOING DRY
GROUND SHOULD BE ABLE TO ABSORB THE FIRST DOSES OF RAINFALL INTO
THE EVENING. BUT TRAINING/REPEATING EPISODES OF HEAVY RAIN COULD
CHANGE THIS...SOMETHING WE WILL MONITOR.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FOR THE VALLEY EAST OF THE NW ALABAMA
DURING SUNDAY...AS A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ADVECTS TO THE NORTH. LEFT IN
LIKELY RAIN CHANCES ACROSS FAR NW ALABAMA ON SUN... GIVEN A SIGNAL
OF SOMEWHAT BETTER LIFT/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THIS AREA.
THROUGH MONDAY...HAVE RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA RANGING FROM
OVER 1/2 OF AN INCH OVER NE AL...TO 1.3 OVER THE NW.

A RETURN TO WARMER AND GENERALLY DRIER WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR
LABOR DAY MON...AS A SOUTHERLY FEED FROM THE SOUTH CONTINUES. WITH
MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE HOLIDAY SHOULD WARM
BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S (AFTER A BRIEF "COOL DOWN" IN THE 80S
DURING THE WEEKEND). STAYED CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY MILDER ECMWF...
WITH LOWER 90 HIGH TEMPERATURES THE RULE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD...WITH SOME NEAR 100 READINGS NEXT TUE/WED. ISOLATED
SHOWER/T-STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE DURING THE PERIOD.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...

SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OR CONTINUE ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE
TN THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. TSRA WILL BE MORE PROLIFIC OVER NW AL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIER
SHRA/TSRA. HOWEVER TSRA COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AND HAVE INCLUDED A
TEMPO GROUP FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE TSRA BTWN
30/20Z THROUGH 31/00Z.

SL.77

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


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