Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
FXUS64 KHUN 262257 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
557 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016
For 00Z TAFs.
(Issued 250 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016)
At 1930z, the large area of showers and thunderstorms associated
with a surface trough across southeast Missouri and into southwest
Kentucky was continuing to slowly slide southeast into middle
Tennessee. Dry and very warm conditions were continuing across the
forecast area this afternoon with temps ranging from the mid to upper
80s in southern middle Tennessee and northeast Alabama to the lower
90s in northwest Alabama.
For tonight, the short term models are in agreement involving keeping
the showers/storms to the north of the forecast area and will
continue with a partly cloudy and warm forecast for the area tonight.
By Friday afternoon, it is expected that more low level
moisture/slightly more instability and heating should result in at
least a slight chance pop at most locations and into the chance pop
category in northeast Alabama due to afternoon orographic lift.
By Friday night and into Saturday, the models are in decent agreement
involving moving a weak short wave northeast out of Mississippi into
the forecast area. Will increase precip chances across the forecast
area by early Saturday and through the day as this should be our best
chance for showers/storms during the forecast period. By Saturday
evening, the short wave should shift east-northeast of the forecast
area, with precip chances lessening through the evening. Will
maintain a slight chance pop for Sunday, as the ECMWF and GFS models
remain in agreement involving moving a weak frontal boundary
southeast through the forecast area by 00z Monday.
Will only maintain diurnal afternoon pops for Monday and Tuesday, as
a very slight northwest flow could bring in some slightly drier air
to the forecast area. By Wednesday, both the GFS and ECMWF models
indicate that a cold front will be moving slowly southeast out of the
northern into the central plains states. As the cold front moves
closer to the region by Wednesday, will keep precip chances into the
chance category due to increased low level moisture, lift and
instability especially by afternoon. Precip chances should be even
slightly higher into the chance category on Thursday as the cold
front should be moving into middle Tennessee by late in the day. As
far as temps are concerned, will be going with a compromise between
the slightly warmer ECMWF and slightly cooler GFS temps through the
extended forecast periods.
For 00Z TAFs: VFR conditions are expected at this time during the
next 24 hours. We are monitoring thunderstorm trends in middle and
southwest TN where a band of thunderstorms was slowly moving south.
More stable and drier air over north AL is expected to keep the
thunderstorms to the north KMSL and KHSV.
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