Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 050551
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1251 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA
WILL PASS BY THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
BACK EDGE OF SNOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST. BUT STILL A
HEAVY BAND AFFECTING THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. AND THIS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OFF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WITH BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE DEPARTING THE AREA IN THE
MORNING...JUST LINGERING ACCUMULATIONS IN THE FAR SE FORECAST
AREA AS THE ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES INTO THE REGION. LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE...THOUGH DIMINISHING QUICKLY. ALL 3 CLIMATE
STATIONS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BREAK RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES.
AND WILL FLIRT WITH RECORD LOW MIN VALUES THURSDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOCATIONS WITH FRESH DEEP SNOW.
OVERNIGHT LOWS UNDER EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL HOVER ON
EITHER SIDE OF ZERO. WIND CHILL VALUES THURSDAY NIGHT DO APPROACH
-10 IN THE FAR NW FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES /POSSIBLY
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK/ AND ONLY A COUPLE LOW-END
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

HEMISPHERIC/NOAM FLOW TO BE DOMINATED BY FAST/BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE ERN CONUS WHICH /IN TIME/ WILL LOSE AMPLITUDE WITH RISING
HEIGHTS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. BLOCKING STRUCTURE OVER THE PACIFIC
COAST WILL KEEP THE BULK OF OUR FLOW COMING OUT OF WRN CANADA ATOP
THIS FEATURE. THUS..SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...BOTH WITH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES. ONE IS
CENTERED ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...THE OTHER ON SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY. NEITHER OF THESE POSSESSES DEEP MOISTURE OR
SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL MOTION...SO KEPT SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THE
FORECAST FOR CONTINUITY SAKE...BUT NOT EXPECTING AN ACCUMULATING
EVENT AT THIS TIME. MAY BE ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING BY THE
SECOND WAVE THAT RA/SN CHANCES ARE WARRANTED.

COLDEST DAY IS FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL TEMP ANOMALIES REMAIN
SIGNIFICANTLY NEGATIVE. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S AFTER A VERY COLD
START. STILL ANOTHER COLD NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT BUT FLOW IS TURNING
AROUND AND THUS WARMER THAN PVS NIGHTS.

SOME HINTS TOWARD DAY 7 /WEDNESDAY/ OF SOME SRN STREAM ENERGY
EJECTED OUT THE BASE OF THE WRN CONUS BLOCKING STRUCTURE THAT GULF
MOISTURE MAY WORK IN WITH A THREAT FOR RAIN BY LATER WED BUT THIS IS
A NEWER /GFS DOMINATED/ TREND AND WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST UNTIL
MORE CONFIDENCE PRESENTS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WITH HEATING EXPECT AN MVFR CEILING TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 15Z
AND 18Z. THIS DECK WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS 00Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
LATE IN THE PERIOD. NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AROUND 10
KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AND THEN WEAKEN LATE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ063>065-071>074-077>082-088.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ054>056-062-070.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     INZ073>075-080.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     INZ066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...






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