Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 241505
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1105 AM EDT Wed May 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A strengthening upper level low pressure center west of the Ohio
Valley will dig south of the area and translate its energy along
the southern Ohio/Indiana border tonight, sparking a new
circulation. Overnight, this system will become stacked from the
surface upwards and slowly move east through Ohio on Thursday.
Weak ridging will build west of the region Thursday night and
Friday until a shortwave embedded in the westerly flow undercuts
it late Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
An area of low pressure will move into the region today. There
will be better instability southeast of the low. A limiting
factor however will be cloud cover. With low LCLs and the low
moving across the area cannot rule out some tornado potential
today. In addition an isolated strong to severe damaging wind
potential is present as well. Temperatures will struggle to rise
today with cloud cover therefore high temperatures only in the
middle 60s to low 70s will occur.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Storms that are present this evening will exhibit a rapid
decrease in intensity as daytime insolation wanes and the
driving factor remains the pure upward motion associated with
the presence of the stacked low. GFS is showing a nice lull over
most of the CWA with a convective complex in southern IN
rotating southeast. Positioning of this is in high question and
the aforementioned complex could be much further northeast and
affecting more than just the southwest portion of the CWA
overnight.

As the circulation spins and tracks east on Thursday, showers
will get another shot of daytime insolation and become stronger.
The bulk of the activity on this day will be just south of the
low - along the Ohio River and in eastern Kentucky, and move
east. Some lingering showers will occur elsewhere in the CWA and
region but should be lacking any strong upward motion and
subsequent thunder at this time. Highs Thursday will be in the
mid 60s with little chance of sunshine making an appearance to
modify any one particular area unlike Wednesday/today. Overnight
lows Wed and Thurs night will be in the mid 50s, and the moist
profile in the atmosphere tells me that there may be a very low
diurnal and the high/low range may need to be tightened up by
both raising the low and lowering the high.

A showers end Thursday night, a brief drying trend will be
found Friday as ridging works in. Friday night has a vort max
undercutting the ridge and sparking some shower/thunderstorm
activity. The nature of the shortwave and vort max is very
compact, with large differences in timing possible, leading to a
lower confidence in the forecast beyond here. This shower
potential leaves the area to the east by early Saturday morning.
Saturday has a warm front developing over the area and
subsequent increased threat for showers and thunderstorms.
Friday and Saturday will both be notably warmer with highs in
the mid and upper 70s and overnight lows around 60 or in the
lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
We will then transition into a west-southwesterly flow pattern
across our region as an upper level low builds into northern MN.
The combination of the moist southwesterly flow and a series of
mid level short waves rotating around the upper level low will
lead to chances of showers and thunderstorms starting Saturday
night and continuing through the weekend. PWs will push up in
excess of 1.5 inches as we progress through the weekend so
depending on exactly how things end up lining up, some locally
heavy rainfall could eventually become an issue. Highs Sunday
are expected to be in the mid to upper 70s.

The deeper moisture will shift off to our east Monday into
Tuesday. Will however hang on to some lower chances for
precipitation through the end of the long term period as some
additional weaker mid level short waves will rotate down across
our region. Highs for Monday and Tuesday will be in the low to
mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A nose of IFR cigs worked up from ern KY early this morning and
lifted through the middle of the TAFs, affecting ILN and DAY. As
daytime heating picks up, these low clouds should quickly rise
to a VFR ceiling.

Meanwhile, H5 closed low will dig south to nr the boot heal of
MO by 00Z, as a sfc low develops in TN and lifts ne to ern KY.

Models continue to show that the more widespread pcpn will hold
off until after 18Z. Can`t rule out a scattered shower before
then, so included VCSH by 14-15Z. Brought mvfr cigs and vsbys
up across the tafs during the afternoon with the main batch of
showers. Mentioned a VCTS in the srn tafs were the better
instability exists.

After 00Z, the bulk of the precipitation will have moved north
of the tafs leaving only a chance of a lingering shower. An
occluding sfc low will be over the region with abundant low
level moisture. Ceilings will likely drop into IFR overnight and
some areas of fog are expected.


OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR ceilings likely Thursday with MVFR
visibilities possible. MVFR ceilings, visibilities, along with a
chance of thunderstorms possible Friday night into Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...Novak
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...Franks/JGL
AVIATION...Sites


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