Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 171949
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
349 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT STRATOCUMULUS IS DIMINISHING AND
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE
SOME MID CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. EXPECT
ENOUGH CLEAR SKIES COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO COOL IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. GUIDANCE NUMBERS LOOKED IN
THE BALLPARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL PASS INTO
NEW ENGLAND DURING THE PERIOD. RIDGING FROM THIS WILL EXTEND INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM. THIS WILL KEEP A
DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. SHADED TOWARDS
THE COOL SIDE OF MOS HIGHS BUT WENT TOWARDS WARMER MOS LOWS BASED
ON BIAS TRENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.  DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY.  THIS FEATURE
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.  SOME
PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY
EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE AREA.  AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY KEEPING SOME CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST
ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON
MONDAY.  SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER DISSIPATE
MONDAY EVENING.

WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT COOL NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA MONDAY
NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM TIME FRAME.  WITH CONTINUED MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND CONTINUED COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE EXPECT WEDNESDAY MORNING
TO BE THE COOLEST MORNING.  WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
30S TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS THE AREA.  AT THIS TIME HAVE CONFINED 30S
TO EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA HOWEVER WOULD NOT RULE OUT
MORE 30S ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRATUS DECK HAS SLOWLY BEEN TRANSITIONING INTO A MORE DIURNALLY
LOOKING CU FIELD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE MORNING. THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR CU
TO DISSIPATE AS WE BEGIN TO LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. MEANWHILE...SHORT WAVE ENERGY PUSHING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL LIKELY SPREAD SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO OUR AREA HEADING INTO TONIGHT. WITH
SOME LINGERING SURFACE MOISTURE STILL AROUND...EXPECT SOME AREAS
OF MVFR BR DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT...WITH SOME IFR OR LOWER
VSBYS POSSIBLE AT KLUK. ANY FOG/BR SHOULD BURN OFF THROUGH MID MORNING
WITH JUST SOME SCT CU EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATER PART OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JGL





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