Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 222008
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
408 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front pushing through the Ohio Valley will bring
organized showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, then drier
and unseasonably cool air filters into the area for the rest of
the workweek. The next appreciable chance for rain after today
looks to be early next workweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Most robust activity has moved off to the east of the area. Low
level convergent axis remains in the far southeast counties
which could still serve as a focus for stronger updrafts. Other
activity moving into northern Kentucky does not seem to have the
focus in addition to weaker low level lapse rates and less
instability. Cold front appears to be just entering far
northwest Ohio. May see a few showers along this boundary
through the rest of the afternoon into the early evening as it
drops into the forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A fairly potent cold front will progress through the area early
in the short term period, bringing an end to the seasonably
warm and humid conditions that had settled in the local area.
With the passage of the front will come a wind shift from WSW to
NW, but do not expect much in the way of gustiness with the
FROPA.

As a CAA scheme becomes established in the FA overnight and into
the day on Wednesday, dewpoints will lower and skies should
clear out from NW to SE early tonight. With the increasingly
clear skies and northwest flow, expect lows to range from the
mid 50s in the NW to the lower 60s in the SE.

By Wednesday afternoon, expect a fairly healthy diurnally-driven
Cu field to develop, especially as heights aloft continue to
fall. Some of the global models have been indicating a few very
spotty light rain showers in the northern quarter of the FA
during peak heating on Wednesday afternoon, so did add slight
chance PoPs for a few hours Wednesday afternoon to account for
this potential.

Cu field and any chance for a spotty light rain shower will
diminish towards sunset Wednesday, with a quiet Wednesday night
period expected as surface high pressure begins to nudge into
the western Ohio Valley. Lows on Wednesday night will dip into
the lower to mid 50s area-wide.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A weak upper level disturbance will bring an increase in cloud cover
and an isolated shower potential to central Ohio on Thursday.  CAA
will also lead to an extensive cu field.  Dry conditions will return
by Thursday evening and then expect dry conditions through the
weekend.  High temperatures through the weekend will be in the 70s
with lows in the upper 40s to the middle 50s.  A slight chance of
thunderstorms will be possible Monday and Tuesday with a weak
disturbance.  This system continues to slow down and be weaker than
previous runs.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Convection has moved south and east of the terminals. Still
could be a few showers with a cold front that has yet to move
through, but does not seem that this will cause any
restrictions. Winds will veer from west to northwest as the cold
front moves through. Clouds will diminish overnight.

Past 12z Wednesday, some diurnally driven VFR Cu will likely
develop as CAA scheme becomes established in the area. Cannot
completely rule out an isolated -SHRA for northern terminals
towards very end of period, but isolated nature of coverage and
lack of confidence precluded inclusion for right now.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...


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