Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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014
FXUS61 KILN 042002
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
402 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS
POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND EXTEND A RIDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...BRINGING A DRY AND COOLER AIRMASS TO THE OHIO VALLEY
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LOW WILL PUSH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH AT THE SURFACE.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON AS GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS VEER WEST/NORTHWEST.
APPRECIABLE LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINING WITH FALLING
HEIGHTS AND SUBSEQUENT COOLING ALOFT WILL KEEP THUNDER A
POSSIBILITY INTO THIS EVENING AS INCREASING FORCING ARRIVES ALONG
THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY STORMS GIVEN COOLING ALOFT AND AFOREMENTIONED INCREASING
LIFT.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL WRAP UP WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY THIS EVENING. LINGERING MOISTURE IN A POST-
FRONTAL AIRMASS COMPLETE WITH BEING IN THE CORE OF CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE OFFING THROUGH THE NIGHT
UNDERNEATH A LOWERING CLOUD DECK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING SURFACE LOW AND A LINGERING
INVERTED TROUGH AXIS LAYING OUT OVER NORTHEAST OHIO WILL KEEP A
CLOUDY AND COOL AIRMASS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL CURVE
CYCLONICALLY AND WRAP FROM EASTERN OHIO THROUGH WESTERN OHIO AS
THE UPPER LOW TRACKS THROUGH KENTUCKY. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS
THURSDAY WILL QUICKLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THE
LIFTING MECHANISM OF THE UPPER LOW EXITS TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.

SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NW-SE LATER THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO MAKE A REBOUND OUT OF THE UPPER 50S/60S ON
FRIDAY...TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S AS BUILDING
HEIGHTS TAKE PLACE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 40S
TONIGHT AND MID 40S THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE WARMING INTO THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY WILL FIND THE REGION IN A TRANSITIONAL PATTERN...WITH A
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW HAVING EXITED TO THE EAST...AND ANOTHER
LARGER CLOSED LOW PUSHING SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN CANADA. AS THIS LOW
DROPS SOUTHWARD...EXPECT LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS OHIO...AS WELL AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES. ALONG
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...EXPECT A FAIRLY GOOD SWATH OF PRECIP TO PUSH
ACROSS ILN...GENERALLY STARTING IN THE NW CWA IN THE
MORNING...EXPANDING THROUGH 18Z...AND COVERING THE MUCH OF THE CWA
BY 0Z SUNDAY. PRECIP IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS OF
THE COVERAGE AND TIMING. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTH
THROUGH KY SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL...WITH PRECIP FINALLY COMING TO AN
END ACROSS MUCH OF OHIO BY SUNDAY MORNING /EXCEPT FOR RIGHT ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER/ AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO WORK IN FROM BEHIND. THIS
AIR WILL ALSO BE MUCH COOLER...WITH STRONG NRLY FLOW RESULTING IN
GOOD CAA. WHILE SRLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL PUSH
TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 70S...CAA WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70 FOR SUNDAY.

THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT BACK NORTHWARD LATE
IN THE DAY MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL PUSH POPS BACK
NORTHWARD AND ACROSS ILN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. UNFORTUNATELY
THIS IS WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...WITH THE
ECMWF SHOWING A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO THE WEST AND PRECIP
OVERSPREADING MUCH OF OHIO FASTER. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT...BEST
PRECIP COVERAGE ACROSS OHIO WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL LIKELY STICK TO A MODEL BLEND FOR THIS
PERIOD. ALONG WITH THE WARM FRONT...EXPECT THE RETURN OF WAA...WITH
LOW TO MID 70S EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND MID AND UPPER 70S BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG SRLY FLOW. THE SHORTWAVE /OR CLOSED
LOW ACCORDING TO THE GFS/ OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BEGIN
SHIFTING EASTWARD MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
EASTWARD TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE INCOMING
BOUNDARY...STRONG WAA IN PLACE...AND INCREASING MOISTURE OFF OF THE
GULF COAST...COULD WILL BE A GOOD SCENARIO FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN SPREADING EASTWARD FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
STARTING MONDAY NIGHT...REACHING MUCH OF ILN AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. BEST
COVERAGE WILL COME WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS CLOSER FROM THE
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...SUBSEQUENTLY BRINGING SHOWERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDER WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY.

WILL SEE MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AS
MVFR CEILINGS TAKE HOLD FOR ALL SITES BY LATE AFTERNOON/THIS
EVENING IN A POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING...VEERING FROM SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON TO
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. IFR CEILINGS
LOOK LIKE A DECENT BET TONIGHT IN THE PRESENCE OF LINGERING LOW
LOW MOISTURE AS NORTHWEST WINDS DECREASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GUSEMAN
NEAR TERM...GUSEMAN
SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN/FRANKS
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GUSEMAN



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