Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 010754
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
354 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME FOG AND STRATUS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW...THE STRATUS DECK SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF OUR
NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH DAYBREAK. WE HAVE SEEN SOME PATCHY DENSE
FOG FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE WE STAY FAIRLY MIXY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING SO ANY DENSE FOG SHOULD
REMAIN TRANSIENT THROUGH DAYBREAK. IN WEAK WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT
PATTERN...WE HAVE SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FA. WILL THEREFORE ALLOW FOR SOME LOWER CHANCE
POPS TO WORK THEIR WAY UP NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH MID
MORNING. AS THE LOW LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY OUT...WE SHOULD SEE SKIES
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY HEADING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS PUSHING
UP INTO THE MID 80S. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS AND SOME WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY PROGRESSING EAST
TOWARD OUR AREA LATE...MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ALTHOUGH IT WILL
BEGIN TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST LATE IN THE
DAY...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A LOW END SEVERE RISK TOWARD EVENING.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BETTER FORCING WILL WORK ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST BETWEEN THE MODELS HOWEVER AS TO HOW
FAST THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO OUR AREA. BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND CMC
REMAIN SLOWER WITH THEIR TIMING COMPARED TO THE 00Z GFS AND NAM.
WILL STICK WITH FORECAST PERSISTENCE WHICH IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO A
BLEND OF THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS...SPREADING CATEGORICAL POPS DOWN
ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR FA THROUGH DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY MORNING...TAPERING DOWN TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS OUR FAR
SOUTHEAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN SAG SOUTH ACROSS
THE REST OF OUR AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE AND A
DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MORE ROBUST HEIGHT RISES IN THE OH VALLEY ON THURSDAY AS ENERGY
FALLS INTO THE NWRN CONUS AND A STRETCHED OUT POSITIVE TILT TROUGH
BECOMES APPARENT FROM THE PAC NW INTO CNTL CANADA. AS RIBBON OF
HIGHER PWAT TO OUR SOUTH/WEST RETURNS NORTHWARD AS WELL AND BEGINS
TO BE IMPINGED ON BY A LITTLE STRONGER SWLY LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW.
THUS...HAVE 20-35% RAIN CHANCES DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE ACROSS
THE SOUTH/WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THURS AND CONT INTO
THURS NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AGAIN...NOT A GREAT DEAL OF SYNOPTIC
FORCING HERE...BUT AREA GETTING GRAZED BY ERN FRINGE OF MORE
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO AREAS TO OUR WEST. CAN/T RULE
OUT SOME SCT STORMS...OR A ROGUE MCS DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST AND
MOVING INTO IND/OH THURS/THURS NIGHT/FRIDAY IN THIS PATTERN.
MESOSCALE DETAILS LACKING IN THE COARSE ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC
FCSTS AT THIS POINT. DO FEEL COMFORTABLE IN GETTING DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 80S MOST AREAS THURS/FRI WITH DWPTS
REMAINING WELL INTO THE 60S. WILL FEEL A LITTLE UNCOMFORTABLE FOR
EARLY SEPT BUT NOT AT ALL UNCOMMON. MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY
WED/THU/FRI...BUT AS WE`VE SEEN JUST ABOUT ALL OF AUGUST...IT/S
SELDOM WE GET BY WITHOUT A FEW STORMS SOMEWHERE AT PEAK HEATING IN
THESE PATTERNS.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...FINALLY SOME APPRECIABLE HEIGHT FALLS ATTEMPT TO
BEAT DOWN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AS THE NRN TIER FLOW BECOMES MORE
PROGRESSIVE. AM HESITANT TO BELIEVE IT WILL HAPPEN AS QUICKLY AS
DETERMINISTIC RUNS HAVE IT HAPPENING...SO HAVE ERRED WARMER ON
SATURDAY TEMPS AHEAD OF DECENT COLD FRONT SHIFTING THRU GREAT LAKES.
HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY/SAT EVE GIVEN ABOVE
NORMAL PWAT AND WHAT SEEMS TO BE GOOD FORCING/FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
SHIFTING THROUGH. FOR SUNDAY...WILL LINGER A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN IN
THE SOUTH IN THE MORNING...BUT IF PATTERN SLOWS DOWN EVEN A LITTLE
THE FRONT MAY STILL BE LINGERING IN OUR SOUTH.  AND LOOKING BEYOND
DAY 7...JUST NOT SURE HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL PUSH WHEN IT
SEEMS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE /IN TIME/ WILL BUILD BACK NORTH EARLY NEXT
WEEK /DAY 8 OR 9/ SO ANY RESPITE FROM MUGGY/WARM TEMPS MAY BE
SHORT-LIVED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EFFECTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REALIZED WITH STRATUS DECK BUILDING
INTO MUCH OF AREA. SUFFICIENT LL MIXING SO THAT CURRENTLY NOT AN
EXPECTATION OF ANYTHING BELOW MVFR BR...THOUGH PERIODIC IFR FG
HERE AT KILN THE EXCEPTION.

IFR CIGS TO LINGER INTO THE 14Z TIMEFRAME WITH POSSIBLE SHRA
LIFTING NORTH FROM KY IN THE 12-15Z PERIOD. EXPECTING SCT VFR
CLOUDS BY MID DAY...WITH VFR BKN WITH APPROACH OF PRE FRONTAL
CONVECTION TOWARD END OF TAF PERIOD. INTRODUCED VCSH TOWARD
06Z...WITH EXPECTATION OF TSRA LATER.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...JDR







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