Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 281803
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
203 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in for the middle of the week,
providing dry weather. Another low pressure system will bring
additional chances for rain Thursday and Friday. High pressure
will bring with it dry conditions for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
H5 s/w is quickly pulling into the Appalachians this morning.
Any lingering light pcpn will continue to dissipate and the fa
should be dry by noon.

Clouds will hang on through the day and with northerly winds,
temperatures will show only a small rebound. Lowered high
temperatures down to the lower 50s in the northwest to the
lower 60s across northern Kentucky.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Amplified mid/upper level flow pattern to dominate at mid week.
Upper level ridge will build into the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes on
Wednesday ahead of next upper level low developing over the
central plains.

Surface high pressure will build southeast through the Great
Lakes overnight. Moisture in the low level will hang on through
most of tonight with only some partial clearing expected in the
north. Lows tonight to range from the upper 30s north to the mid
40s south.

With mid level ridge building over the region expect to see
a decrease in clouds Wednesday morning. This will be followed by
an increase in high level clouds late in the day. Temperatures
will be a little above normal with highs Wednesday ranging from
the mid 50s north to the mid 60s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper air pattern will feature a broad ridge to start. The upper
ridge will be invaded by a couple of potent upper lows traveling on
a westerly flow, triggering surface low development, and resulting
in rounds of precipitation.

Dry weather under high pressure to start Wednesday night will come
to an end Thursday when surface low pressure is forecast to track
east toward the area, pushed by a closed upper low. As lift and
moisture arrive on the southerly flow ahead of the system, rain
showers will become likely by Thursday evening, with thunderstorms
possible in an environment containing marginal instability. Kept
categorical pops for Thursday night when the low is forecast to be
centered over Indiana, placing the ILN area in the most favorable
location for widespread precip. Showers are expected to persist
Friday as the low progresses to West virginia.

High pressure is expected to provide dry weather Saturday and
Sunday. The next low is forecast to arrive Monday with a large swath
of moisture, producing the likelihood for showers and a few
thunderstorms.

Temperatures will be above normal for the bulk of the period. Highs
mainly in the 60s in warm advection Thursday and Friday will be
followed by near normal upper 50s Saturday under modest cold
advection. Highs will be boosted back up into the 60s Sunday and
Monday by warm advection ahead of the second low.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR/IFR ceilings continue to affect the tafs at the beginning
of the period. Pcpn associated with a surface low in the Central
Appalachians should continue to pull ewd, leaving the tafs dry
for the period.

Consensus of models is to have the ceilings lift to MVFR at all
locations this afternoon and then hold there overnight. Latest
model runs don`t scour out the low level moisture until
afternoon 12Z Wednesday. With sfc high over the Great Lakes on
Wednesday, the low clouds should scour out from ne to sw during
the morning hours reaching VFR by the end of the period.

North winds around 10 kts will become northeast overnight and
stay there tomorrow.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities likely Thursday into
Friday evening along with a chance of thunderstorms. MVFR to
IFR ceilings likely Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...Sites



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