Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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378
FXUS61 KILN 230139
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
939 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture from Cindy will overspread the region today. A cold
front will drop southeast across the area Friday afternoon and
evening, with heavy rainfall possible ahead of this front.
Temperatures will drop below normal through the weekend and into
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A shield of light rain continues to hold together fairly well as
it tracks north/east through the FA this evening. Rainfall, in
general, has been quite light thus far (on the order of several
tenths in most places - locally higher in extreme southern
portions of the FA).

Hi-res models /in particular the HRRR/ have consistently
handled this pcpn poorly as the coverage has been well-
maintained thus far this evening. Therefore, have upped PoPs
early tonight, especially along and east of the I-71 corridor,
as the shield shifts N/E thru the FA.

Given current trends, the light rain may not completely
dissipate and/or move out of the area before additional
scattered redevelopment initiates towards the end of the near
term period, especially for northern portions of the area.

Despite the rain-cooled air over the southern FA this evening,
do expect temperatures to hold fairly steady through the
overnight hours. In fact, with persistent southwesterly flow and
a tropical-like airmass in place, temperatures may be steady or
even slowly rise through the overnight hours for areas that
have cooled down thus far due to the rain. Regardless, it will
be a muggy night, with temperatures and dewpoints around 70
degrees area-wide by sunrise Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Friday morning looks wet as the upper level trough axis
continues to amplify with a strengthening RRQ approaching from
the west. Overall this event has the symptoms of a PRE. As the
tropical cyclone approaches a band of precipitation will form
Friday morning and be driven frontogenetically (as seen on GFS
fgen vectors). The event also is not directly from Cindy but
indirectly. The ILN forecast area is in a RRQ and the fgen band
looks to help to strengthen the upper level jet. The ILN
forecast area is also north and left of the forecast track for
Cindy (and north and west of a low level theta-e ridge axis).
Run accumulated precipitation on the GFS, ECMWF, NAM and CMC
show widespread totals of one to three inches with isolated
totals of three to four inches. Give the strong upper level
divergence/ diffluence, near max PWAT values, and vorticity
advection have gone ahead and issued a Flash Flood Watch for the
entire CWA except Auglaize, Hardin, and Mercer counties. WPC
also has the area in a day 2 moderate risk for excessive
rainfall.

Friday afternoon the band of heavier precipitation will slowly
sag southeastwards as the upper level trough approaches from
the northwest. The remnants of Cindy will also push east across
Kentucky at this time. This means heavy rain will likely
continue through the day Friday. Late Friday evening the
remnants of Cindy will skirt just south of our southern zones
with rain slowly coming to an end early Saturday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mid level trof to develop over the Great Lakes with westerly flow
over the Ohio Valley. Surface high pressure to begin nosing into the
Ohio Valley Saturday. Expect pcpn to stay north of the area with
cool highs in the mid/upper 70s Saturday.

Shortwave pivoting through the mean trof over the Great Lakes may
lead to few showers but expect this pcpn to stay north of ILN/s FA.
Cool temperatures to continue with Sundays highs in the mid/upper
70s.

With another s/w and the mean mid level trof across the Great Lakes
can not rule out an afternoon shower mainly across the north Monday.
Will limit these pops to slight chance. Temperatures look to be
about 10 degrees below normal with highs on Monday in the lower and
middle 70s.

Models solns sharpen up mid level trof over the eastern Great Lakes
which may lead to a few showers or thunderstorms over the
northeastern counties. Rather cool readings to continue Tuesday
with highs generally in the mid 70s.

Surface high pressure slide east with southerly low level developing
on its back side at midweek. Expect dry conditions with a warming
trend. Temperatures will be closer to normal with highs on Wednesday
in the lower 80s.

Warm front to develop over the Great Lakes with southerly flow
increasing. Temperatures will continue to moderate with highs
Thursday in the lower and middle 80s.

The ECMWF and Canadian solns bringing a progressive system through
the Great Lakes Thursday, while the GFS holds off pcpn.  With an
increase in moisture have allowed for a slight chance of a
thunderstorm but confidence is not high in this chance.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A shield of -RA will continue to move north/east through the
area this evening, affecting southern/eastern terminals with
MVFR CIGs through 03z. With this pcpn, MVFR CIGs will
overspread all terminals through the first several hours of the
TAF period. As the air column slowly becomes saturated with
increased moisture filtering into the area, some brief IFR CIGs
may be possible between 06z-12z for all terminals.

Towards 12z, additional clusters of SHRA with embedded TS will
develop and begin to move southeast through the area for the
remainder of the period. Do think that there will be periodic
+SHRA embedded within the activity, which may lead to brief
IFR/LIFR restrictions at times. Held off on inclusion of TS at
TAF sites for now given uncertainty in spatial and temporal
coverage of the thunder.

Southwesterly winds of 10 to 12 kts are expected during the day
tomorrow ahead of pcpn. As the front begins to move through
towards the end of the period, winds will shift more westerly
and eventually northwesterly.

MVFR/IFR CIGs will likely linger for several hours behind
shield of pcpn at end of TAF period.

OUTLOOK...Intermittent MVFR ceilings possible Saturday through
Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flash Flood Watch from 2 AM EDT Friday through late Friday
     night for OHZ042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Flash Flood Watch from 2 AM EDT Friday through late Friday
     night for KYZ089>100.
IN...Flash Flood Watch from 2 AM EDT Friday through late Friday
     night for INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haines
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...Haines
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...KC



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