Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 201810
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
210 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THIS FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DISTURBANCES WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AIRMASS TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. STILL CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. THERE IS SOME CONCERN
THAT CONVECTION THAT HAS PERSISTED INTO EASTERN ILLINOIS/WESTERN
ILLINOIS COULD MAKE A RUN TOWARDS THE TRI-STATE. BUT NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN
BEFORE MAKING IT INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND WILL
FEATURE AN AMPLIFYING PATTERN WITH DIGGING ENERGY OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
TROUGHING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. AT THE SURFACE...AN EFFECTIVE
WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS SUBTLE DISTURBANCES DROP THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL JETS IMPINGE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED ACROSS
THE AREA.

THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN HAVE BEEN INSERTED THURSDAY AS MID
LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AND STRONG THETA-E AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
OCCURS. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES ABOUT HOW SOON THIS WILL
ONSET ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE
MAY BE SEVERAL WAVES OF STORMS WHICH TRAVERSE THE AREA FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. DESPITE INCREASED
SHEAR...INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED BY ONGOING CLOUD AND
PRECIPITATION AND MARGINAL LAPSE RATES...SO THE OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT MAY NOT BE TOO IMPRESSIVE.

FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...SPECIFIC FEATURES BECOME LESS
DISCERNIBLE...ALTHOUGH GREATER CHANCES FOR STORMS SHOULD BE
FARTHER NORTH AND EAST AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. HIGHER
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS COULD LEAD TO
SOME HEAVY RAIN FROM ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME
LOW 90S CREEP IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHWEST. DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL RESULT IN
MUGGY CONDITIONS AND HEAT INDICES COULD APPROACH THE UPPER 90S IN
THE SOUTHWEST BOTH DAY. AFTER SOME UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE
HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL HOLD LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MANY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL PUT THE ILN AREA ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER
RIDGE. IN THIS REGIME...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND THE
AIRMASS WILL BE HUMID. THIS WILL RESULT IN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
LEADING TO SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A VERY SIMILAR UPPER AIR
PATTERN WILL PRODUCE GOOD CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY IN EASTERN COUNTIES CLOSER TO SHORT
WAVE FORCING. THE UPPER RIDGE MAY SAG SOUTHWARD ON
TUESDAY...ALLOWING A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA.

MOS GUIDANCE AND 1000-850 MB THICKNESS FORECASTS POINT TO THE
WARMEST WEATHER WE WILL EXPERIENCE THIS SUMMER. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S...WITH HIGHER READINGS TENDING TO
BE IN SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WHERE SUNSHINE SHOULD BE MORE PREVALENT
CLOSER TO THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BEFORE
REACHING THE CINCINNATI TERMINALS. THERE WILL BE A LOT OF LEFT
OVER CLOUDS ALTHOUGH THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR. ELSEWHERE
SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. APPEARS THAT STORMS
COULD START TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z. ONCE STORMS DO DEVELOP THERE
COULD BE REPEATED ACTIVITY OVER THE SAME AREA BEFORE A LULL OCCURS
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...






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