Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 261445
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
945 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

.UPDATE...
As of mid-morning, cold front near Lake Okeechobee mainly depicted
as a leading edge of lower dewpoints. A line of showers over the
outer Atlantic waters along a pre-frontal trough will merge with
the front this afternoon and act as the main focus for increasing
clouds and possibly a few showers across lower Southeast Florida.
Current forecast depiction of 20% POPs looks good. Low level wind
profiles are generally conducive for waterspout formation with the
line of showers well offshore, mainly during the late morning and
early afternoon. Northeast winds will increase, reaching 15 to 20
mph along the Atlantic coast this afternoon and near 15 mph
elsewhere. A Gulf sea breeze will likely try to move onshore, but
with the background flow being close to 15 mph, the sea breeze
will likely not make it more than a few miles inland. All other
forecast variables are on track.

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft advisory effective 1 PM for the waters offshore Palm
Beach County, with caution statement for the Broward/Miami-Dade
waters. Winds also expected to increase over the outer Gulf of
Mexico waters tonight, and the afternoon forecast package will
include any potential hazard headlines for this area.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 641 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017/

AVIATION...
NW winds less than 10 knots at east coast sites will shift to NE
around 10 knots by 14z-15z today, with KAPF staying NNE through
the morning. Current forecast has KAPF staying NE throughout the
day, but a Gulf sea breeze could move through by 20z. As winds
turn NE, periods of BKN040-050 will affect mainly east coast
terminals by afternoon. A few passing showers could develop this
afternoon but will not cause any significant impact to terminals.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 413 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Today-Tonight: Weak frontal boundary currently sliding down the
Florida peninsula this morning, bringing clouds and a few showers
over the Atlantic waters. The boundary is expected to make it down
into South Florida later this morning before it strings out and
stalls across the region. Low level flow will quickly come around
to the northeast this afternoon as the boundary washes out.
Coastal convergence with the breezy flow will bring mostly cloudy
skies along the Atlantic coast, along with occasional showers as
the winds tap into the leftover moisture pooled along the
boundary.

Temperatures will be a little cooler today behind the boundary
with the initial NW flow this morning. Highs will be in the upper
70s to around 80 for the east coast and interior and low-mid 80s
for the Gulf coast, only 2-3 degrees above normal rather than the
more recent 6-8. Overnight lows will be in the low-mid 60s for the
Gulf coast and interior, with breezy east flow keeping the east
coast in the 70s.

Monday-Tuesday: Surface high behind the boundary across the Deep
South will slide out into the Atlantic early week, with the ridge
axis slowly moving south into Central Florida into mid week.
Breezy east flow will continue, especially for the east coast,
becoming southeasterly with time. Atlantic showers are expected to
continue, moving into the east coast at times. Temperatures will
quickly rebound into the low-mid 80s across the region, with the
offshore component bringing the potential for upper 80s for the
interior Gulf coast by Tuesday.

Mid-Late Week: Flow weakens and veers more southerly by Wednesday
as ridge axis drops into South Florida, allowing the Gulf breeze
to develop in the afternoon. This brings a more summerlike
pattern, along with the summerlike temperatures, with afternoon
showers over the interior where the east coast and Gulf breezes
collide.

The next frontal boundary limps through the peninsula from
Thursday through Saturday. This front looks similar to the current
boundary, where the northerly low level flow looks to outrun the
boundary itself, with winds veering very quickly northeasterly.
Thunderstorm potential is non-zero for Thursday as models hint a
little more instability with the warm temperatures (mid-upper
80s), but with deep moisture lacking and the influence of the
upper ridge still in the region, the threat remains too small to
mention in the forecast.

MARINE...North-northwesterly flow around 15 knots this morning
quickly veers northeasterly by this afternoon and easterly
overnight behind a weak frontal boundary. Winds are expected to
pick up to around 20 knots over the Palm Beach waters this
afternoon, with 15-20 knots for the remainder of the Atlantic,
Gulf, and Lake Okeechobee. Seas building to 6-8ft in the Gulf
Stream by this evening, especially in the Palm Beach waters.
Offshore component keeps Gulf waters a little lower, but seas may
peak out around 5ft tonight in the far offshore waters.

Based on the current timing of the stronger winds, the start time
for Small Craft Advisory has been pushed back to this afternoon
for the Atlantic waters off Palm Beach county. There may brief
periods of sustained 20 knots, especially this evening, but for
now the remainder of the waters will be under a cautionary
statement.

Gusty east winds continue through early week, especially for the
Atlantic. Gulf waters should subside to 10-15kts by late Monday,
with potential for Gulf breeze development along the coast by
Tuesday. Seas subside on Monday with generally 2ft or less in the
Gulf waters and 2-4ft in the Atlantic early week.

BEACH FORECAST...Strong and gusty northeast to east winds will
bring a high risk of rip currents along all the the Atlantic
beaches through at least Monday evening. An elevated threat is
expected to linger through mid week with the gusty easterly flow.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  80  69  82  73 /  10  30  20  20
Fort Lauderdale  81  72  82  74 /  20  30  20  20
Miami            82  71  83  73 /  20  20  10  20
Naples           81  65  84  67 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Monday
     for AMZ650-670.

GM...None.
&&

UPDATE...59/Molleda
MARINE...59/Molleda


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