Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KMFL 281426
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1026 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY. THE 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND
THIS WILL DELAY THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHOWED DRY AIR REMAINING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS THE LAKE
REGION AND PALM BEACH COUNTY. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND MOVING INTO FORT
MYERS AND EASTWARD INTO HENDRY AND GLADES COUNTIES. GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE LAKE REGION AND PALM BEACH COUNTY WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES OF STORMS TODAY...AND POSSIBLY DOWN TO BROWARD COUNTY LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. IT WILL BE HOT TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES OF 100-105.
TEMPS WERE ALREADY IN THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING AS IT LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 749 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014/

AVIATION...

ALTHOUGH A RATHER DRY REGIME EXISTS OVER THE REGION...TONGUE OF
BETTER MOISTURE...NEAR 2" PWATS JUST OFF PALM BEACH COUNTY HAVE
MIXED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN YESTERDAY. ALSO...THE DRIEST AIR
WHICH WAS OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA HAS DRIFTED WEST. THIS HAS
ALLOWED SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE TO SEEP SOUTH ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST AND WITH A STRONGER MORE CONSISTENT WEST WIND...MIGHT BE A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE TODAY OF NEAR BEACH STORM DEVELOPMENT THAN
YESTERDAY...PERHAPS EVEN INTO BROWARD COUNTY. DESPITE THIS...CHCS
ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH ATTM FOR VCTS IN THE TAFS...BUT MAY NEED TO
ADD A VCTS GROUP BASED ON EVOLUTION AT KFLL/KFXE LATER TODAY.
CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE VCTS REMAINS VALID AT KPBI.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE COMBINATION OF DRIER AIR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA AND A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUING
ACROSS FLORIDA AND ADJACENT GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS SHOULD RESULT
IN REDUCED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE LATEST SUITE OF
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
HAVE THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AND THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE PENINSULA WITH BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES LIKELY
HAVING THE MOST COVERAGE WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA.

THERE IS A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE CONTINENT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND APPROACHING THE
LAKE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND THEN INTO SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GUIDANCE BEING FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE BOUNDARY COULD LINGER ACROSS
THE REGION INTO THURSDAY AND THE MOISTURE COULD LINGER EVEN
LONGER. THE MAIN IMPACTS EXPECTED SO FAR IS AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WITH FORECAST PWAT`S FOR WEDNESDAY ABOUT TWO INCHES. THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH DIURNAL
VARIATIONS FAVORING MORE COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
GUIDANCE DID HINT AT MORE NUMEROUS ACTIVITY BUT FOR NOW SCALED
BACK THE COVERAGE UNTIL THE EVENT IS CLOSER AND THERE IS MORE
CONFIDENCE IN THE GUIDANCE.

MARINE...

MAINLY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE WEEK WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS
BUT GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES THERE COULD BE PERIODS WHERE WINDS
ARE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. THROUGH MID WEEK ATLANTIC SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS WITH THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS
FORECAST TO HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FEET POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  94  77  92  78 /  30  20  40  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  93  80  93  80 /  20  20  40  30
MIAMI            94  79  91  79 /  20  10  40  30
NAPLES           91  79  91  79 /  10  20  30  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....60/BD



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.