Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 172347

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
747 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017

VFR expected through the prd with light and variable wind overnight.
VCTS continues over APF for the next hour as convection is still
affecting the terminal. Conditions should clear close to sunset as
most of the activity moves west into the Gulf waters. E to southeast
wind expected tomorrow with better chance of TS in the interior


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 736 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017/

The showers and thunderstorms have shifted into the western areas
of South Florida early this evening. These showers and
thunderstorms should continue to move to the west into the gulf
waters of South Florida while slowly weakening through rest of the
evening hours. The latest forecast shows this trend and no
changes are needed at this time.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 341 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017/


High pressure over the western Atlantic waters will continue to
remain nearly stationary through this weekend, as an upper level
low over the Bahamas moves westward into the Gulf of Mexico.
This will allow for a tropical wave near Hispaniola to move west
northwest and through South Florida this weekend.

The atmosphere will be drier over South Florida on Friday ahead
of the tropical wave leading to less coverage of showers and
thunderstorms, and the focus will be over the interior and west
coast metro areas. The showers and thunderstorms will then
increase again to scattered to numerous over South Florida this
weekend with the passage of the tropical wave.

Highs on Friday will be near record ranging from the mid to upper
90s over South Florida, due to the lower shower and thunderstorm
coverage. The heat indices across South Florida on Friday will
also be in the 105 to 107 range.

     Forecast Highs    Record Highs
        08/18/17         08/18/17

MIA       94             95 - 1995
FLL       93             98 - 1921
PBI       94             96 - 1948
APF       95             97 - 2001

The weather for South Florida for early to middle of next week
will depend on tropical disturbance currently located about 1200
miles east of the Leeward Islands. At this time, the models are
showing this tropical wave to move to the west northwest around 20
mph through the weekend and should be in the South Florida region
sometime between Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. NHC is giving
this tropical disturbance a 60 percent chance of development into
a tropical system through the weekend. All residence and visitors
or South Florida need to continue to monitor this tropical
disturbance through the weekend.

The winds will be from the southeast direction tonight through
this weekend with speeds of 15 mph or less over most of South
Florida waters. The only exception to this is over the Atlantic
waters where the speeds could increase to 15 to 20 knots on
Saturday. The seas will remain at or below 4 feet in the Atlantic
waters and 3 feet or less in the gulf waters this weekend.

The threat of rip current could increase this weekend along the
east coast beaches of South Florida, due to the increase in
easterly wind flow.

The relative humidity over South Florida will remain well above
the critical value this weekend, as the dispersion index values
will be in the fair to good range. Therefore, there should be no
issues with the fire weather over South Florida this weekend.

West Palm Beach  79  94  80  90 /  10  20  20  60
Fort Lauderdale  81  93  82  89 /  10  20  20  60
Miami            80  94  81  90 /  10  20  20  60
Naples           76  95  78  90 /  30  20  10  50



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