Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 270256
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
956 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.UPDATE...
THE STRATUS DECK AND LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION HAS ERODED
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. FOG IS ALREADY BEING REPORTED ACROSS
BROWARD COUNTY...AND TAMIAMI WAS REPORTED VIS LESS THAN 2 MILES
ALREADY. SO ADDED AREAS OF FOG WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG TONIGHT...AND
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY COULD BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS
OF THE REGION. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE MILD AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014/

AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS AS THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS PROGRESS. THERE COULD BE SOME PERIODS
OF IFR AS WELL ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AT KFLL, KFXE, AND KAPF. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT KAPF. SHOWERS ACROSS THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH TONIGHT
AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVES NORTH AS WELL. CONDITIONS WILL START
TO SLOWLY IMPROVE ON SATURDAY AS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE IN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUNDAY)...
A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS WITH ITS AXIS STRETCHING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. AT THE SURFACE, A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS LOCATED FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS
INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND WESTERN CUBA. THE COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS VERY SHALLOW AND SATURATED WITH A DENSE LOW
CLOUD FIELD WITH TOPS AT AROUND 8K. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE LITTLE OVER
THE WEEKEND BUT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND ERODE AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA THIS
AFTERNOON TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR A SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION WITH A RETURN
TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO ABOVE LATE
DECEMBER AVERAGES BY SEVERAL DEGREES.

LONG TERM (MONDAY-FRIDAY)...
A ZONAL UPPER AIR FLOW WILL RETURN TO SOUTH FLORIDA NEXT WEEK AS A
SERIES OF TROUGHS WEAKENS THE CURRENT RIDGE WITH BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOWING THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE LATE
TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY WHERE IT WILL STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. SO IT APPEARS THAT THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY FREE OF RAINFALL
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST.

MARINE...
THE MARINE ZONES WILL BE RATHER UNEVENTFUL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15KT AND SEAS 4 FEET
OR LESS. THERE COULD BE A SMALL NORTHEAST SWELL BEGINNING TO
AFFECT THE ATLANTIC WATERS OFF OF PALM BEACH COUNTY TOWARDS THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  71  80  71  80 /  30  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  72  80  72  80 /  10  10  10  10
MIAMI            71  80  70  81 /  10   0  10  10
NAPLES           66  81  66  80 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK


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