Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 241127
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
727 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH MOSTLY INTERIOR CONVECTION. A LIGHT
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DOMINATE SO MOST THUNDER IS ANTICIPATED WELL
INLAND FROM THE EAST COAST TERMINALS AND SHOULD PUSH INLAND FROM
KAPF BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ALONG BOTH
COASTS AND THERE COULD BE A BRIEF MVFR CIG/VSBY ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE EAST COAST PRIOR TO 15Z IF A SHOWER PASSES OVER THE TERMINAL
AND AT KAPF AS INITIAL TSRA DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST
BOUNDARY.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...LEADING TO A REDUCTION IN RAIN CHANCES. LOW PRESSURE
NORTH OF FLORIDA MAY LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING ARE QUITE WARM...AVERAGING 80F IN
THE METROPOLITAN AREAS. YESTERDAYS MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AT KMIA
WAS 79F...WHICH TIED FOR THE WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURE OF THE YEAR
SO FAR. TODAYS LOW WILL LIKELY BE QUITE SIMILAR. DEEP LAYER
BERMUDA RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING WESTWARD OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY. THIS SHOULD REDUCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FURTHER...ALTHOUGH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO FOCUS ALONG SEA- BREEZE BOUNDARIES BY MIDDAY...FOCUSING MAINLY
OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. ON FRIDAY...SUBTLE
WEAKNESS ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST JUST
WEST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE A BIT AND OVERALL
INSTABILITY WILL ENHANCE SLIGHTLY. LITTLE TRIGGERING MECHANISM FOR
CONVECTION BESIDES SEA- BREEZES...BUT ACTIVITY MAY STILL MANAGE TO
BE A BIT MORE ORGANIZED AND NUMEROUS WHERE THE BOUNDARIES COLLIDE
DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURE. THEREAFTER...THE DEEP RIDGE
BUILDS FURTHER OVER FLORIDA AND UNUSUALLY DRY AIRMASS IS EXPECTED
OVER THE PENINSULA FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL FOR MAXIMA AND SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MINIMA.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN ANOMOLOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH NORTHERNMOST FLORIDA AS EARLY AS MONDAY...AND MAY
GRADUALLY INCH TOWARD CENTRAL FLORIDA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WHAT
APPEARS MOST LIKELY FOR SOUTH FLORIDA IS A VEERING OF OVERALL
WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A BIT WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE EASTERN HALF...AS WELL AS THE FOCUS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING FROM THE INTERIOR TO CLOSER TO
THE EAST COAST. THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED...AS THIS COULD SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE
POPS AS MID-WEEK APPROACHES.

AVIATION...
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE
INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AFTER 15Z FOR THE
EAST COAST TAF SITES. THE WINDS AT KAPF TAF SITE WILL ALSO REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL 16Z THEN SWING TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION AS
THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND.

DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY FROM THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL REDUCE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS. THEREFORE...THE EAST COAST
TAF SITES WILL HAVE ONLY VCSH IN FOR TODAY AFTER 15Z WHILE KAPF
TAF SITE WILL SEE VCTS AFTER 16Z.

CEILING AND VSBY WILL ALSO REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS TODAY FOR ALL
OF THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...KAPF TAF SITE MIGHT NEED A TEMPO GROUP
FOR THE CEILING AND VIS LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ONCE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

MARINE...
GOOD POINTING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND...OUTSIDE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GENERALLY...WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHEAST AT 10 KTS OR SO WITH SEAS BELOW 2 FT. LOCALLY ROUGHY
SEAS MAY BE CAUSED BY GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER
CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  78  90  78 /  20   0  30  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  90  81  90  81 /  20   0  30  20
MIAMI            91  79  91  79 /  30   0  30  10
NAPLES           91  77  91  77 /  40  10  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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