Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 021435
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1035 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING AS THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. THE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
WITH MAINLY LIGHT WNW FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW UP TO 700MB FROM THE MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDING IN
MIAMI WAS SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE TO SETUP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND BECOME MORE
ESTABLISHED. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN REFLECTS THIS PATTERN AND
GENERALLY INDICATES THE BEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON SETTING UP AND FOCUSING OVER BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE
COUNTIES. WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH FAIRLY WARM 500MB
TEMPERATURES AND RISING UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOW TODAY. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM
THE STORMS THAT DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP WILL BE LIGHTNING AND 35 TO
45 MPH WIND GUSTS. 85

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 802 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014/

AVIATION...

REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THERE IS ISOLATED AREAS WITH LOW
STRATUS AND/OR MIST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY
OF THE LAKE WITH CURRENT METAR OBS FROM KPBI INDICATING BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING. TERMINAL KTMB
MAY HAVE VERY BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITY EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...CHALLENGING WIND FORECAST. WEAK WESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION AND FORECAST TO BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY LATER
THIS MORNING. AFTER 18Z THE WEST AND EAST COAST SEA BREEZES ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM...BUT FOR TERMINALS KTMB AND KOPF WINDS COULD
STAY LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY. LINGERING TROPICAL MOISTURE COULD FAVOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WESTERLY WINDS
FAVORING CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA. ALL EAST
COAST TERMINALS ASSIGNED VCTS IN THE 18Z TO 21Z TIME FRAME.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014/

.TYPICAL AFTERNOON SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEXT FEW DAYS...
.FIRST COLD FRONT OF FALL SEASON ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT...

DISCUSSION...SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS
THROUGH FRIDAY, MAINTAINING A WESTERLY WIND FLOW. THIS WILL FOCUS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO AS
AN ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME DRIER
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP CONVECTION SCATTERED
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS ON FRIDAY. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THE
TSTORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINS.

GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND, SENDING THE FIRST COLD FRONT
OF THE SEASON ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SATURDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT FORCING WILL BE TO
THE NORTH SO ONLY ORDINARY STORMS ARE ONLY EXPECTED. THE BIG STORY
WILL BE THE DROP IN DEWPOINTS AND A SLIGHT LOWERING OF
TEMPERATURES TO MAKE A VERY NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA AFTER THE LONG STEAMY TIMES SINCE MAY. GUIDANCE
TEMPS/POPS WERE NOT SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED FROM THIS TIME
YESTERDAY SO NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES ARE NOTED IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL OCCUR SUN-MON, BUT MOISTURE
LOOKS TO RETURN ON A RETURN FLOW BY TUE WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY
AND A RETURN TO SCATTERED TSTORMS THEN. /GREGORIA

MARINE...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE BUT WINDS WILL
PICK UP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FIRST COLD FRONT OF THE FALL
SEASON EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. AS
WINDS TURN N THEN NE, SEAS WILL BUILD ESPECIALLY OFF THE PALM
BEACH COAST BUT NWPS CURRENTLY KEEPS SEAS BELOW HAZARDOUS
LEVELS, OR 7 FT. /GREGORIA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  74  89  76 /  40  20  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  90  78  90  78 /  50  20  40  20
MIAMI            91  77  90  78 /  50  20  50  20
NAPLES           90  75  90  76 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52/PS
LONG TERM....57/DG



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