Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 230729
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
329 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY)...
A STRONG MID/UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL
MOVE LITTLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO EXTEND OVER THE
PENINSULA AS A REFLECTION OF THE UPPER FEATURE. HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE THE LOW TO CUT OFF
THIS MORNING AND THEN ONLY DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE
DAY. AS A RESULT OF THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM, DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IS IN
PLACE WITH PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AND PWAT CLOSE TO TWO INCHES.
THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME ENHANCED UPPER DIFFLUENCE ON THE SOUTHEAST
SIDE OF THE LOW ADDITIONALLY AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON
STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH DIFFERENCE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ON
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER, TOTAL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN HIGH SO NOT MUCH CHANGES TO RAIN PROBABILITIES ARE
FORESEEN AT THIS TIME. THERE COULD BE SOME SUBTLE PATTERN CHANGES
FROM DAY TO DAY DEPENDING ON THE EXTACT POSITION OF THE TROUGH AXIS,
BUT RAINFALL CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGH JUST ABOUT ALL AREAS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA WITH THE GREATEST THREAT BEING DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH
MAXIMUM DIURNAL HEATING TAKING PLACE.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY-MONDAY)...
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH WILL BECOME CUT
OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW WITH A LARGE AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS
THE EASTERN STATES. THIS WILL RETURN SOUTH FLORIDA TO A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES FOCUSING MORE OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS. BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK, MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN U.S. PLACING SOUTH FLORIDA TO A RETURN
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST STEERING FLOW WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF
RAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
AN EASTERLY FLOW AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH SEAS OF MOSTLY 2-3 FEET OVER THE ATLANTIC AND 1-2 FEET IN THE
GULF WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  85  76  86  77 /  70  40  60  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  86  78  86  78 /  70  40  70  40
MIAMI            86  77  86  78 /  70  40  60  30
NAPLES           86  74  87  75 /  60  30  50  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB


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