Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 041948
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
348 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL LIKELY BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. EARLY
NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION AND
RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL LEVELS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAS OCCURRED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
SEA BREEZES...AS STORMS SHOULD BE STEERED SOUTHWARD AS THEY SLOWLY
PROPAGATE INLAND. ACTIVITY MAY LAST WELL INTO THE EVENING...BUT
SHOULD BE MOSTLY GONE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH CLOSED H5 LOW FORMING
OVER THE NE GULF/NRN FL. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...DISORGANIZED LOW
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF ERIKA ARE EXPECTED TO MEANDER
OFF THE N FL / GA COAST...AND HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. THESE FEATURES WILL AIDE IN NORTHERLY WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE PENINSULA...AND WITH UPPER LEVEL LIFT FROM THE
TROUGH/FLOW...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE NUMEROUS THIS WEEKEND
THAN PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. CONVECTION MAY BE ENHANCED FURTHER BY WEAK
SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL
SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. AS M/ULVL TEMPS
DECLINE...INSTABILITY WILL BUILD AND A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY WITH HIGH WIND GUSTS...ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER FOR LABOR DAY...AS AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOPRES
WILL RETROGRADE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND THE SFC LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST WILL FADE AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA. THE RESULT WILL BE A SOUTHERLY WIND...BECOMING EAST LATE
WEEK. PCPN COVERAGE SHOULD RETURN TO TYPICAL FOR WET
SEASON...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE CONVECTION...MOST LIKELY OVER
INTERIOR AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...
EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
PUSH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE REMAINS OVER
THE WESTERN METRO AREAS OF THE EAST COAST. THEREFORE...THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES WILL SWING TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION BETWEEN 18Z
AND 19Z BUT THE SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT BEST. VCTS
WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BEFORE GOING TO VCSH FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THE WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT FROM THE WEST DIRECTION FOR
TONIGHT ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES.

THE WINDS OVER KAPF TAF SITE WILL BE WESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
THROUGH 00Z BEFORE GOING LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR TONIGHT.
THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE TAF SITE THIS
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...VCTS WILL CONTINUE AT KAPF TAF SITE THROUGH
00Z THEN DRY CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT.

THE CEILING AND VIS WILL REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL OF THE
TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...BUT COULD FALL DOWN INTO
MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SO WILL ADMIN THE TAF SITES WHEN THERE IS A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE TAF SITE THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE VIS AND
CEILING.

&&

.MARINE...
OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WINDS LESS THAN
10 KTS AND SEAS LESS THAN 2 FEET WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  91  75  89 /  50  70  40  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  91  77  91 /  40  70  40  60
MIAMI            78  92  77  92 /  30  70  40  60
NAPLES           77  92  76  90 /  10  50  30  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...88/ALM


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