Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 300754
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
354 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN WILL HOLD THROUGH
TUESDAY...AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DOMINATES. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE
CARIBBEAN WILL BRING INCREASED RANGE CHANCES FOR THE MIDDLE AND
END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ASIDE FROM SOME COASTAL SHOWERS IMPACTING EASTERN METROPOLITAN
AREAS...A FAIRLY QUIET OVERNIGHT HAS PREVAIL. DEEP-LAYER RIDGE
CENTERED NORTHEAST OF FLORIDA WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER
INFLUENCER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. EXPECT SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE CONTENT...WITH A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE
MORNINGS. AFTERNOON WILL HAVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOCUS IN
THE WESTERN INTERIOR...WITH LIGHT/MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW
PREVAILING.

A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS EXISTS ON ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY
AND TONIGHT...AND THIS RISK MAY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR NEXT WEEK...STARTING
BY THE WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL HIPRES ALLOWING AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
TO PUSH INTO THE MISSISIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL SET UP SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER FLORIDA. A MOISTURE SURGE AND
POTENTIALLY A LOW PRESSURE WILL ENTER SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE SOUTH
LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN POSSIBLY REMAIN IN THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SURFACE LOW AS WELL AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF. GFS HAS THE UPPER
FEATURE QUICKLY CLOSING OFF BY MID-WEEK...WITH FAIRLY ORGANIZED
SURFACE LOW BRISKING LIFTING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE TROUGH FROM CLOSING OFF
UNTIL LATE WEEK...WITH LOPRES NOT ORGANIZING UNTIL IT HAS MOVED
NORTHEAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. AGREE WITH THE GENERAL FASTER MOVEMENT
OF THE GFS...ALTHOUGH ORGANIZATION OF THE LOW SEEMS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. REGARDLESS OF WHAT SOLUTION PANS
OUT...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS PWAT VALUES REACH
OVER 2 INCHES. LATER THURSDAY/FRIDAY ARE LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECASTS AS GFS SENDS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION...WHEREAS ECMWF KEEPS EXTREMELY MOIST AIR-MASS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...
EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS ALL
EAST COAST TAF SITES WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE EAST COAST SITES THROUGH THE DAY. AFTERNOON CONVECTION
LOOKS TO REMAIN CONFINED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COASTAL
AREAS WITH A GULF BREEZE EXPECTED TO AFFECT KAPF. AS
ALWAYS...BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY
PASSING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.MARINE...
EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH NO MARINE
WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THAT TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  87  74  87  75 /  20  20  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  76  87  76 /  20  20  30  10
MIAMI            88  75  87  75 /  20  10  30  10
NAPLES           89  72  88  73 /  40  20  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...10/CD



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