Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 261418
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1018 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.UPDATE...
With sounding depicting fairly moist profile and HRRR suggesting
scattered showers developing along/just west of Atlantic coast,
then spreading across the peninsula, have adjusted POPs up through
the day. Otherwise, no changes to the forecast. Easterly flow
continues, though gradually will subside today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 813 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017/

AVIATION...
Scattered showers continue to stream inland from Atlantic this
morning, especially over Broward County. Expect this trend to
continue through the morning, before eastern activity becomes more
isolated in nature. East wind 10 to 15 KT are forecast today,
which should be light enough to allow for Gulf breeze to develop,
switching winds in Naples and creating a chance of showers
/handled by VCSH/ there during the afternoon. Winds become light
tonight. In general, VFR conditions should prevail through Monday,
but brief restrictions in/near showers are possible.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 339 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Surface high pressure extends across most of the Florida peninsula
with  a broad surface low north of Puerto Rico. Northeasterly to
easterly surface and low level flow will continue to bring patches
of moisture/cloudiness across the Atlantic waters with embedded
showers. Additional shower activity is possible from streamers
moving westward off the northwest Bahamas islands.

Forecast for today through Tuesday...

A broad surface low north of Puerto Rico is forecast to slowly
deepen and move north slowly over the next day or two, with the
global models in general agreement with this scenario. This
scenario should keep South Florida under a surface ridge, with an
upper level ridge forecast through the early part of the week, and
there will not be any deep moisture available with forecast
PWAT`s around 1 inch for most of this period. Forecast soundings
indicate generally easterly to northeasterly surface and low level
winds with plentiful low level moisture. Therefore, some passing
showers will impact the Atlantic waters and eastern peninsula from
time to time, with Bahamas streamers potentially adding
additional showers. In addition the Gulf coast sea breezes are
expected each afternoon with a few showers across the western
interior regions and Naples metro areas in the late afternoon and
early evening.

Forecast for mid to late week...

There is general agreement amongst the global models that by mid-
week surface high pressure is forecast just east of the northwest
Bahamas and extends across central and South Florida with an
upper level ridge across the eastern Gulf and Florida peninsula.
Generally stable weather is forecast with guidance trends
indicating temperatures could climb into the upper 80`s across the
interior peninsula, with lower 80`s forecast across the Gulf and
Atlantic metro areas. Similarly for Thursday, but by Friday a cold
front is forecast to enter the eastern Gulf and Florida
panhandle, with regional southerly winds and temperatures possibly
climbing a couple more degrees.

Extended forecast...

The extended global models indicate the aforementioned front could
sink  southward into central Florida or even South Florida, with
some shower activity as a result although not indicated in the
extended forecast.

MARINE...

A pre-cautionary statement is necessary early this morning for the
Atlantic and Gulf Stream waters with winds in the 15 to 20 knot
range, with seas from 3 to 5 feet. Winds and seas are expected to
slowly subside today into Monday and continue subsiding into
Tuesday. Through the extended forecast, no hazardous seas are
forecast and regional winds currently not forecast to approach or
exceed 20 knots.

BEACH FORECAST...

A high risk of rip currents will continue across the Atlantic
beaches early today and the current high risk may be dropped to a
moderate risk with more data gathering later today. A slight to
moderate risk of rip currents across the Atlantic beaches is
expected by Monday and for Tuesday as winds and seas continue to
slowly subside.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  66  80  65  82 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  69  81  69  82 /  10  20  10  10
Miami            68  82  67  84 /  10  20  10  10
Naples           64  82  63  82 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

UPDATE...23/SK
DISCUSSION...60/BD
MARINE...60/BD
AVIATION...23/SK
BEACH FORECAST...60/BD





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