Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 241304 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
904 AM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016

High pressure will remain over the Southeastern United States
today keeping an northeast wind flow over South Florida along with
dry weather. Therefore, no changes are plan to the forecast for
today for South Florida.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 714 AM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016/

The winds will become northeast at 10 to 15 knots this morning
into the afternoon hours at all of South Florida taf sites.
The weather will remain dry along with VFR conditions in the
ceilings and vis at all of South Florida taf sites today.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 342 AM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016/

Short Term (Today-Wednesday)...deep high pressure remains over the
region today and through Tuesday, but its associated sfc ridge
will gradually migrate eastward during the next couple of days.
This will keep winds across South Florida generally from the NE
today and into Tuesday, which will in turn advect a warmer air
mass into the area. Low level moisture will also begin to increase
as the NE flow establishes.

For Today and Tuesday, the prevailing benign weather pattern will
continue but with increasing cloud cover and a few brief showers
possible over the southern-most areas of the CWA each afternoon.
By Wednesday, expect a noticeable increase in cloud cover and
returning afternoon showers with best chances of rain over the
Atlantic coastal waters and the immediate east coast.

Afternoon high temps will reach the low 80s in most locations
today and gradually warming into the mid 80s by Wednesday. Winds
will become stronger during the short term with breezy and gusty
conditions expected by Wednesday.

Long term (Wednesday night-Sunday)...model guidance show the high
pressure ridge aloft eroding away as the surface ridge axis
migrates further east during the second half of the week. In
response, models show winds across the area veering to the E,
along with a warmer tropical air mass bringing a gradual increase
in low level moisture. The global models, however, still show
discrepancies about how much moisture is going to filter into the
region with GFS remaining the more aggressive model solution.
ECMWF keeps the bulk of the moisture just to the south of the

Regardless of the final outcome, POPS will reflect an increasing
trend in rain chances for the long range forecast with Thursday
and Friday having the highest probabilities for showers, especially
along the east coast.

Breezy periods are still possible through Friday, especially over
the eastern half of South Florida.

MARINE...Seas will remain moderate through most of the work week
while winds become northeasterly today. Winds are expected to
shift to a more east-northeast or even easterly flow, and reach
the 20 to 25 kt range by Wednesday. This will cause seas to build
to over 7 feet in the Atlantic for the latter half of the week,
which would be hazardous for small craft. This may also cause an
increase in the chances for rip currents to moderate for the
beginning of the week, and possibly high for the latter half of
the week.

Light and variable winds will continue this morning, with mainly
clear skies. Aft 24/1500Z, northeast winds 8-12 KT will surface with
higher gusts possible...dwindling after 25/0000Z. Low Clouds with
bases around 5000 ft msl will be few/scattered through this evening
with dry conditions prevailing.

West Palm Beach  81  66  83  74 /  10  10  10  20
Fort Lauderdale  81  71  83  75 /  10  10  10  20
Miami            82  69  84  74 /  10  10  20  20
Naples           82  65  85  67 /  10  10   0   0



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