Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
FXUS62 KMFL 261133
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
733 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017
VFR conditions to prevail today as winds become SE/S later this
morning and this afternoon, but lacking deep enough moisture for
widespread lower ceilings. Most ceilings today expected in the
040-050 range. Mid/upper level shortwave moving across Florida
today will help produce a few showers over the eastern half of
South Florida this afternoon, but activity not expected to be
widespread enough to include in TAFs at this time. Light/variable
winds early this morning will become 140-150 degrees at 8-12 knots
between 15z-17z and remain that way through 00z, except a
seabreeze shift to 190-200 at KAPF by 18z.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 339 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017/
..Showers possible over inland portions of South Florida this
Atlantic high pressure has settled over South Florida, with
generally light winds and little cloud cover this morning. The
southeasterly flow will allow some moisture to push over the
region today which could allow for some showers to develop this
afternoon as a mid-level trough pushes across South Florida.
Currently, shower development chances look best over western
portions of the east coast metro and over the Everglades. Areas
along and west of US 27 in Palm Beach and Broward Counties or
west of the Homestead Extension of Florida`s Turnpike in Miami-
Dade County look to have slightly better rain chances than areas
closer to the coast today. High resolution guidance is hinting
that some areas could see the potential wetting rains if showers
do develop as they should be pretty slow moving thanks to the
light southeasterly flow promoted by the high.
As today concludes, any convection should diminish through the
evening and a quiet and slightly warmer night should ensue. The
southeasterly flow will persist through much of the week allowing
for a taste of summer to take over South Florida. Temperatures in
the low 90s will prevail but without the relief of afternoon
showers and thunderstorms. The next frontal system will fizzle out
before reaching South Florida Thursday, with deep layered high
pressure building over the state on Friday. This high will persist
through the weekend until the next front emerges early next week.
As the front enters the region on Monday, rain shower chances will
increase and the potential for thunderstorms returns to the
forecast. This system may be the first chance for a widespread
wetting rain, but we are still quite far out in the extended
forecast period to state anything too definitively at this point.
Light southeasterly flow is expected across the waters over the
next several days with the potential for showers. Seas should
remain below headline criteria through the most of the week save
for some overnight wind surges possible in the Atlantic.
While today is not expected to be as dry as previous days, there
remains a chance for a few hours of relative humidity values
nearing the critical 40 percent threshold over portions of
interior Southwest Florida including in Glades, Hendry, and inland
Collier County. At this point, the wind speeds do not look to
support Red Flag Conditions and the amount of time forecast to see
relative humidity values at or below 40 percent is an hour or two.
A short-fused Red Flag Warning may become necessary if observed
trends during the morning and afternoon hours skew drier or
windier than forecast. Will allow the day shift to monitor the
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach 84 75 90 76 / 20 20 10 20
Fort Lauderdale 85 76 89 79 / 20 20 10 10
Miami 83 75 90 78 / 20 20 10 10
Naples 85 71 89 73 / 10 10 10 10