Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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817
FXUS62 KMFL 242006
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
406 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Latest water vapor imagery loop shows a large dome
of upper level high pressure dominating the Florida peninsula with
broad troughing further north, sagging over the Ohio valley.
Surface analysis shows a 1020 mb surface high near Bermuda. Clockwise
flow around this feature has been rather stagnant over the past
several days, responsible for the breezy southeast winds along
our coasts. This mornings MFL ROAB sounding indicated a rather
dry and stable atmosphere, with only 1.59 inches of PWAT and a
capping temperature inversion around 700 mb. With similar
atmospheric conditions projected for this evening, PoPs will be
relatively low. Local observation sites show a sea breeze
collision along the western interior. This should generate enough
lift to produce a few afternoon showers and perhaps rumble of
thunder into late this evening. However, shower activity will
dwindle tonight, with the loss of diurnal heating. On Sunday,
little changes synoptically. An elongated upper level ridge of
high pressure remains in place over the Florida peninsula, with
surface high pressure near Bermuda. Therefore, expect another
round of brisk southeast winds around 10 to 15 mph, strongest
along the east coast. The GFS model projects 500 mb heights
increasing to 595 mb, translating to strong subsidence over the
peninsula. This should help maximum temperatures to climb back
into the upper 80s along the coast to slightly over 90 degrees
inland. Chances of afternoon showers and thunderstorms should
remain limited to the interior and Gulf coast.

The aforementioned broad trough will begin to deepen over the
Tennessee valley, dropping a cold front southward. In response,
the Bermuda high will retreat eastward and decrease influence of
the southeast winds. By Tuesday, deeper moisture ahead of the
front, combined with lighter winds and stronger sea breeze
interactions will trigger additional shower and thunderstorm
activity. Though the front is not progged to sag much further
south than northern Florida, this deeper moisture will allow for
chance to likely PoPs over our region, most widespread in the
afternoon. Light south and southeast flow will concentrate most
activity over the interior, but may drift to the coasts as
outflow boundaries collide. Maximum temperatures will remain in
the upper 80s and lower 90s, near average for this time of year.
Friday into next weekend, but the GFS and ECMWF indicate high
pressure building back in over the western Atlantic, continuing
the typical summerlike weather pattern.

Thigh
centered over the western Atlantic is retreating eastward into the
Bahamas as a cold front over Tennessee Valley moves slowly across
the southeast plains into FL panhandle late Monday. Deep moisture
content will work its way into the region leading for an increase
in scattered showers and thunderstorms the early part of the
week. This front is not progged to make it too much further south
remaining near Central FL. The front stalls to the north but the
abundant moisture to the south will increase pops to 50 to 60
percent for South Florida through the week.


&&

.MARINE...
Surface high pressure near Bermuda will keep an east
to southeast wind across the South Florida coastal waters
through the Sunday. A relatively drier atmosphere will only
produce a few showers over the waters. The chances for showers
and thunderstorms will increase again next week. The flow will be
mainly southeasterly, with the exception of the near shore Gulf
waters, where an afternoon southwest sea breeze may develop.

&&

.AVIATION...
Showers, and potentially a few thunderstorms, could pop up inland
of the east coast terminals and push near APF. Generally VFR
through the period, though sub-VFR conditions are briefly possible
around convection along with variable, gusty winds. Otherwise,
southeasterly to easterly flow will prevail through the TAF period
except at APF where the Gulf sea breeze could cause some light
variability.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
The threat of moderate rip currents will continue through at least
Sunday moderate as breezy east or east southeast winds prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  80  91  78  91 /  10  20  20  30
Fort Lauderdale  80  90  80  90 /  10  20  20  30
Miami            80  91  79  91 /  10  10  20  30
Naples           75  91  76  90 /  20  20  30  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&


DISCUSSION...27/JT
MARINE...27/JT
AVIATION...02/RAG
BEACH FORECAST...27/JT






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