Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 071603
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
Issued by National Weather Service Key West FL
1103 AM EST Wed Dec 7 2016

.UPDATE...
A band of low stratus lingers over Broward/Northwest Miami-Dad
through southern Collier at this time, whereas clearing has
occurred through the northern half of the South Florida service
area. Ridging in the lower troposphere remains on an axis across
the Florida Straits with deep moisture through 700 mb remaining.
After some insolation redevelopment of a cumulus field and
scattered showers are expected this afternoon. Light northwest
winds are expected to becoming northeast to east along the east
coast this afternoon...with light offshore winds this morning
along the Collier/Mainland Monroe coastline becoming light onshore
this afternoon...speeds generally around 5 mph or less.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 708 AM EST Wed Dec 7 2016/

AVIATION...
IFR conditions in ceilings and visibility affecting large parts of
South Florida this morning in association with weakening frontal
boundary across the area. Conditions should improve around 14z but
will have to be watched for any lingering low clouds/visibility
beyond that time. Ceilings will eventually lift to around
2000-3000 feet which should prevail for most of the day as the
front provides lift for scattered showers/VCSH. Winds will be
light with land breeze component through about 18z-20z, followed
by weak sea breeze affecting all area terminals. Timing of this
wind shift is tricky due to front in the area, and could shift to
E/SE at MIA/FLL area terminals a little earlier than forecast.
Winds become light/variable tonight with MVFR or patches of IFR
conditions again possible in fog/stratus towards end of forecast
period.

&&

AVIATION...59/Molleda

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 542 AM EST Wed Dec 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Short Term...(Today-Friday)...a decaying cold front boundary is
slowly pushing SE across Southern Florida, with an associated pre-
frontal line of convection being observed on radar extending from
the Florida Keys and NE to near Key Biscayne. Thunderstorm
activity has remained south of the Key Largo/Homestead area during
the overnight hours, with only a couple of active showers moving
near Key Biscayne and into the adjacent coastal waters.

Latest models show the parent low of the aforementioned front
tracking to the northeast across the Mid Atlantic States, further
dragging the front just to the SE of the Florida peninsula later
today. Pressure gradients seem to remain fairly relaxed as the
front gradually dissipates during the next day or so. This
synoptic scenario will keep abundant tropical moisture in place,
along with light south-southwest wind flow, becoming variable at
times through early Thursday. Conditions are also favorable for
periods of fog, mainly until shortly after sunrise, which may
bring low visibilities at times, especially over interior areas.

The low is expected to reach the northern Atlantic waters later
today, which will leave the remnants of the front lingering over
the extreme portions of the Florida peninsula during the next
couple of days. Thus, there will be enough leftover moisture
across the area for additional scattered showers to develop each
day through the short term.

Long Term (Friday Night-Tuesday)...models remain poised in having
strong cold air advection across the central and eastern states
during the next several days, with a colder and drier air mass
reaching South Florida by late Friday. Morning lows on Friday
night-Saturday morning will drop to around 50 over interior
areas, and low to mid 60s elsewhere. Afternoon highs will struggle
to break 70 on Friday, and hovering the mid 70s on Saturday.

Winds will shift to the northeast to east during the weekend
with generally dry conditions over most of the area. Moisture
begins filtering back into South Florida with returning chances
for scattered showers on Monday.

MARINE...
A weak cold front will approach the coastal waters today, then
stall and linger across the region through Friday. Strong high
pressure will build across the area by the end of the work week
and bring stronger northerly winds. This will result in deteriorating
marine conditions across the local waters for the upcoming weekend
with winds in the 15-20 knots range and seas up to 7 feet.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  82  69  80  62 /  20  30  50  40
Fort Lauderdale  82  72  81  64 /  30  40  60  50
Miami            84  71  82  65 /  30  40  50  50
Naples           80  67  77  59 /  30  30  30  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

UPDATE...35/JR-KEY










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