Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 020043
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
840 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

ZONES...STRAY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES STILL COLLIDING AND TRIGGERING A
FEW STORMS THAT QUICKLY DISSIPATE. LOSS OF HEATING HELPING TO SHUT
DOWN THE THERMAL DRIVEN STORMS. WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE POP AND CLEAR
OUT STORMS AND SHOWERS

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION

CURRENT-TONIGHT...915MHZ CAPE PROFILERS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP SSW
FLOW FROM JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE THROUGH 10.0KFT. 15Z KXMR SOUNDING
PROFILE SHOWS FAIRLY WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES (700/500MB, +10.3C/-
6.0C) WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.71 INCHES.

THE INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF IS STILL HANGING ON AND
WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THERE. THE ATLC RIDGE
AXIS WILL NOSE WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTING. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND THE GFS BOTH SHOW DRIER AIR INFILTRATING NORTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL FL. MODELS HAVE ACCURATE FORECAST A SLOW START TO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME ACTIVITY ALONG THE TREASURE
COAST AND ADDITIONAL WEST SEA BREEZE CONVECTION NEAR LAKE COUNTY.
COLLISIONS OF SEA BREEZE/MESOSCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL PLAY A
ROLE IN ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA BUT EXPECT
OVERALL COVERAGE TO REMAIN MUCH LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. LOCAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE SLUGGISH ON MUCH COVERAGE LATE TODAY LIKELY A
RESULT OF THE DRIER/WARMER AIR. WILL PERFORM A PRE-FIRST PERIOD
WORDING FOR THE ZONES WITH HIGHEST OVERALL COVERAGE FORECAST FOR THE
INTERIOR AND ALONG I-4.

A FEW CELLS LATE TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 40 MPH. CELL
MOVEMENT WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 TO 15
MPH. A FEW CELLS MAY HANG ON PAST 00Z BUT EXPECT AN OVERALL DECLINE
IN ACTIVITY...IF IT GETS GOING AT ALL...AFTER SUNSET. WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY OVERNIGHT OVER LAND. CLOUD DEBRIS WILL THIN
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LOWS CONTINUE IN THE 70S.

WED-THU...THE ATLC SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC EXTENDING WESTWARD OVER FLORIDA AND INTO THE
EASTERN GOMEX. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY WEAK AND WE WILL SEE THE EAST/WEST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES
ADVANCING INLAND EACH AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
AVERAGE BETWEEN 1.80-2.00 INCHES. MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
RELATIVELY WARM WITH 500 MB READINGS AROUND -6C. STORM MOTION
RELATIVELY WEAK AT LESS THAN 10 KTS SO ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY
CONTINUE TO CAUSE NUISANCE FLOODING IN A FEW SATURATED LOCATIONS
ACROSS ECFL. STILL EXPECT TO SEE SCT AFTN/EVENING CONVECTION WITH
GREATEST CHANCES ACROSS THE I-4 CORRIDOR ON WED AND PERHAPS A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH ON THU. SRLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN U80S/L90S AND
MIN TEMPS IN THE M70S.

...PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION...

FRI-MON... A WEAK TROF ALNG THE SERN SEABOARD WILL PRESS INTO
CENTRAL FL OVER THE WEEKEND. GFS HAS SHIFTED TO A MORE ORGANIZED
TROF WITH NE FLOW DVLPG IN ITS WAKE...ECMWF STILL WASHES IT OUT
BEFORE IT PENETRATES INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. NOT SURPRISINGLY
THE GFS EXTENDED MOS GUIDANCE IS QUITE A BIT DRIER THAT THE ECMWF AS
THE NE FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF USHERS IN A DRY/STABLE SLUG
OF CONTINENTAL AIR.

AM INCLINED TO LEAN TOWARD THE EURO AS THE H30-H20 JET HAS A STRONG
ZONAL COMPONENT AND IS WELL N OF THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. IT WOULD
REQUIRE A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF AMPLIFICATION TO SWING IT FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO PULL THE TROF INTO CENTRAL FL. WHILE THIS WILL HAPPEN OVER
THE WRN CONUS AS A 120KT JET STREAK DIGS ITS WAY DOWN THE PAC
COAST... THE ERN CONUS WILL ONLY SEE INCREASED RIDGING AS A RESULT
OF THE BUCKLING. WILL KEEP SCT DIURNAL POPS IN THE FCST WITH TEMPS
NEAR CLIMO AVG.

&&

.AVIATION...

SCT-BKN VFR TIL 04Z THEN SCT VFR TIL 19Z-20Z WHEN DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA
START AGAIN.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION

S/SW FLOW...THOUGH A DRIER ATMOS THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY...WILL
STILL ALLOW FOR ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA LATE THIS  AFTN/EVENING. BOTH
E/W SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL PENETRATE INLAND COUPLED WITH
ADDITIONAL LATE DAY MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS ALLOWING FOR THE
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. TEMPO IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS INVOF CONVECTION.
CELL MOTION OUT OF THE SSW AT 10-15 KTS AND STILL FEEL HIGHEST
COVERAGE KISM-KMCO NORTHWARD. MAY AGAIN SEE SOME PATCHY STUBBORN
FOG/LOW STRATUS DUE TO HIGH MOISTURE VALUES NEAR THE SURFACE FROM
RECENT HEAVY RAINS.

&&

.MARINE...

NOAA AND SCRIPPS BUOYS RECORDING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 KNOTS
OR LESS AND 2 FOOT SEAS.

OVERNIGHT...WEAK RIDGE NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION...

MARINE...CURRENT-TONIGHT...ATLC RIDGE AXIS NOSING INTO THE S/C
PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. S/SE LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
VEER TO SSW/SW LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 10
KTS. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING MAY VENTURE OFF OF
THE COAST MAINLY N OF THE CAPE. SEAS AOB 3 FT.

...PREVIOUS EXTENDED MARINE DISCUSSION...

WED-THU...FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS THRU MIDWEEK AS THE ATLC
RIDGE MAINTAINS A LIGHT TO GENTLE S/SW BREEZE...BCMG E/SE NEAR THE
COAST IN THE AFTNS AS THE SEABREEZE DVLPS. SEAS AOB 2FT.

FRI-SAT...SFC/BNDRY LYR WINDS BCMG VRBL AS A WEAK TROF PRESSES INTO
THE STATE...N/NE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROF...S/SE AHEAD OF IT. WEAK
PGRAD OVERHEAD WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS AOB 10KTS WITH ACCOMPANYING
SEAS AOB 2FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...BACK TO OUR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DIURNAL PATTERN OF
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE STORMS DRIVEN BY SEA AND LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES. BUT BECAUSE THE ANTECEDENT RAINFALL HAS SATURATED THE
GROUND IN SOME PLACES...ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN FROM SCATTERED STORMS
WILL BE MORE APT TO CREATE STANDING WATER AND AGGRAVATE ONGOING
FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  90  75  90 /  20  50  40  60
MCO  76  92  75  91 /  20  50  30  60
MLB  76  90  76  90 /  20  40  30  60
VRB  75  91  75  90 /  20  40  30  50
LEE  76  91  76  90 /  20  50  30  60
SFB  76  92  76  91 /  20  50  30  60
ORL  76  92  76  91 /  20  50  30  60
FPR  73  91  74  91 /  20  40  30  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

IMPACT WX...SPRATT
FORECASTS...WIMMER


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