Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 250724
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
324 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Today...High pressure will build offshore the Carolina coast,
freshening the onshore flow as the local pressure gradient
tightens. Meanwhile, enhanced drying and subsidence overhead will
preclude the need for PoPs in the forecast. Expecting a pleasant
afternoon with a fresh easterly breeze around 15 mph and dewpoints
settling into the 50s over the interior and low 60s along the
coast. Temps will top out around 90F well inland and the low to
mid 80s along the coast.

Tonight...Drier air continues to filter in from the north and east with
PWATs less than 1 inch areawide. Despite the stout (15 knot)
onshore flow, dry air expected to put the kibosh on any
development of showers over the Atlantic. Will keep mentionable
PoPs out of the forecast. Continued onshore flow will keep coastal
communities warmer (low to mid 70s) compared to inland areas (mid
to upper 60s).

Thu-Sun...sfc high pressure from Bermuda to the SE US coast will
weaken as the southern extent of a stalled sfc trough east of the
islands exhibits some slow development as a wave. This feature is
expected to drift wwd toward the Bahamas late in the week and
reach a point of closest approach to the forecast area during the
weekend as an inverted trough or perhaps a broad sfc low north of
the Bahamas.

Local rain chcs will hinge largely on whether or not discrete low
pressure develops...which would likely reduce rain chcs locally
should the feature pass to the east and north of the area as
expected. An open wave would keep a broader moisture field
regionally and rain chcs would be somewhat higher in this
scenario. The lcl forecast maintains a slow increase of rain chcs
late week and during the weekend (with chc wording during weekend)
until whichever scenario unfolds with the feature to the east.

Extended...ltst ECM/GFS guid suggests sufficient weakness wl
exist to the north of the SE coast feature...allowing for it to
continue a trek away from the area early next week. Sufficient
moisture across the ECFL area along with a rather weak pressure
gradient should allow for wet season boundary driven convection at
least the early half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. Easterly winds will increase to 12 to 15 knots a few
hours after sunrise.

&&

.MARINE...
Today/Tonight...High pressure off the Carolina coast expected to build
a few millibars which will increase the local pressure gradient,
bringing up to 15 knot east winds over the local Atlantic waters
(occasionally higher south of Sebastian Inlet). Seas building to
3-4 feet over most of the waters. The east flow will also bring in
drier air so no showers are expected.

Thu-Sun...An onshore wind will continue late this week with
strength of winds determined by the likelihood of sfc low pressure
developing near the Bahamas late this week. Winds near 15 knots
and seas 4 to 5 ft are expected through late this week with higher
winds and seas over the outer waters. Wind and sea forecast are
subject to revisions should low pressure development occur near
the Bahamas this weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Drier air filtering in will allow RHs to drop to
around 35 percent for a few hours this afternoon along and west
of Interstate 4.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  84  68  82  67 /   0   0  10  10
MCO  89  66  86  68 /   0   0  10  10
MLB  85  74  83  71 /   0   0  10  20
VRB  85  71  83  70 /   0   0  10  20
LEE  92  66  88  68 /   0   0  10  10
SFB  89  65  86  66 /   0   0  10  10
ORL  88  66  86  69 /   0   0  10  10
FPR  84  71  83  68 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MLB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ulrich
LONG TERM....Pendergrast



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