Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 281035
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
520 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...COOL AGAIN TODAY/TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WARMUP THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...

TODAY/TONIGHT...REINFORCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS REACHED SOUTH FL
WITH NW TO NNW WINDS ACROSS ECFL IN ITS WAKE. WEAK COOL ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MODIFICATION OF THE LOW LEVEL
AIR MASS BEGINNING TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER TO ONSHORE/NNE
ALONG THE COAST. MAX TEMPS IN THE L-M60S. SHOULD SEE SOME LATE NIGHT
INCREASE IN MARINE SC...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTAL
COS...AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TOWARD SUNRISE. THIS WILL LIKELY PUT THE
BREAKS ON NOCTURNAL TEMP FALL ACROSS THOSE AREAS...ALTHOUGH N-NW
DRAINAGE FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNRISE...RESULTING IN
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK THERMALLY INDUCED INVERTED SFC TROUGH ALONG
THE FL EAST COAST BY SUNRISE.

THU-FRI...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD SHIFTS
SOUTH AND ACROSS THE REGION THU BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION INTO FRI AFT/EVE. THERE IS A SLIGHT INCREASE WITH MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT BUT LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIP WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
COASTAL WATERS AS BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. THEREFORE WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST OVER LAND INTO LATE WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IN
THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S EACH DAY.

SAT-SUN...SFC COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED SOUTH OF THE AREA SAT
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BUILDING TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE INTO SUN. TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN BOTH SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN
THE DRIER AIRMASS AND FAVOR INCREASING DEVELOPMENT OF ATLANTIC
SHOWERS THAT WILL MOVE ONSHORE SAT NIGHT/SUN. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S SAT...THEN WARMING
INTO THE LOW-MID 70S SUN.

MON-TUE...U/L TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL THE U.S. WILL SWING EASTWARD
EARLY NEXT WEEK PUSHING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION MON.
INCREASING S/SW WINDS PULL IN DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD/ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
MON WITH CURRENT RAIN CHANCES FORECAST AROUND 30 PERCENT. DRY/COOL
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE MINIMAL AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NORTH OF FLORIDA WILL QUICKLY VEER WINDS BACK
ONSHORE INTO TUESDAY. HIGHS FORECAST IN THE 70S MON AND THEN COOLING
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S FROM ORLANDO NORTH TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR/SKC. 12Z TAF SUITE WILL LIKELY PUT IN PREVAILING
OR TEMPO VFR CIGS BKN035-040 IN MARINE SC FROM AT LEAST KMLB-KSUA
SOME TIME AFTER 06Z.

&&

.MARINE...LOW LEVEL WINDS ACQUIRING INCREASING NRLY COMPONENT EARLY
THIS MORNING...WHICH IS ALLOW THE HIGHER SEAS PREV BEING SHUNTED
WELL OFFSHORE TO CREEP BACK CLOSE TO SHORE. SEAS AT 41009...WHICH
HAD BEEN HOLDING AS ABOUT 5.0-5.5FT ALL DAY HAVE CREPT UP TO 6.5FT
AS OF 08Z/3AM. WITH LOCAL PGRAD WEAKENING LATER THIS MORNING...AND
41010 NOW DOWN TO 20KT/8FT...THINK 7FT WILL BE ABOUT AS HIGH AS IT
GETS OUT AT 20NM. EXPECT WINDS/SEAS TO FALL A BIT BELOW 20KT/7FT
LATER TODAY...BUT REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CUSP TO WHERE A SHORT
TERM EXTENSION OF OFFSHORE SCA MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR THE MID MORNING
UPDATE.

THU-SUN...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN OVER THE AREA THU WITH ONSHORE
FLOW WEAKENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRI
WITH WINDS PICKING UP OUT OF N/NW AROUND 15 KTS INTO FRI NIGHT.
LINGERING SEAS UP TO 6 FEET WILL BE PRESENT IN THE GULF STREAM THU
WITH SEAS 5 FEET OF LESS INTO LATE WEEK.

TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND OFFSHORE INTO
THE WEEKEND WILL PRODUCE ELEVATED ONSHORE WINDS. WIND SPEEDS
OFFSHORE CURRENTLY FORECAST UP TO 15-20 KNOTS WITH SEAS INCREASING
UP TO 6 FEET SUN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE U20S TO L30S EXPECTED
AREAWIDE TODAY. SUSTAINED NRLY WIND SPEEDS MUCH LOWER THAN THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS HOWEVER...AS ERC VALUES REMAIN IN THE UPPER TEENS
TO MID 20S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  60  44  66  47 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  64  43  70  49 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  63  47  70  48 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  64  48  70  49 /   0   0  10   0
LEE  61  41  68  49 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  63  42  69  49 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  62  44  69  51 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  65  49  70  49 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
     LINE OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
     LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
     WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20
     TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
     INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM....WEITLICH




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