Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 011924
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
324 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...
RAINFREE WX PATTERN FOR ONE MORE EVNG AS HI PRES CENTERED OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST MAINTAINS AN E/SE FLOW THRU THE H100-H70 LYR THAT
WILL TAP A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE BAHAMAS. AS
ANTICIPATED...THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED AND IS MAKING
STEADY INLAND PROGRESS. NOT SO FOR THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
WHICH...AS OF MID AFTN...HAD YET TO DVLP. THIS SUGGESTS ANY SEA
BREEZE MERGER WILL OCCUR WELL WEST OF THE FL TURNPIKE...WHILE E/SE
FLOW THRU THE LOW LVLS KEEPS ANY DIURNAL PRECIP RESULTING FROM THE
MERGER PINNED OVER THE W PENINSULA. DIMINISHING SERLY SFC/LOW LVL
FLOW WILL GENERATE WARM TEMPS OVERNIGHT...MON MRNG MINS BOTTOMING
OUT IN THE U60S/L70S.

MONDAY...
BRISK ZONAL COMPONENT TO THE H50-H10 FLOW OVER THE SRN TIER STATES
WILL NUDGE THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE W ATLC TOWARD BERMUDA. AS IT
DOES...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY WILL WORK ITS WAY
INTO THE DEEP SOUTH WITH PREFRONTAL MOISTURE FILTERING INTO N FL. AT
THE SAME TIME...THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN THE SERLY H100-H70 FLOW THAT
HAS PERSISTED FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS LOW LVL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
TAP A SLUG OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ENCROACHING ON THE SRN BAHAMAS.

THE RESULTING TWO-FRONTED MOISTURE ADVECTION PATTERN WILL MODIFY THE
DRY AIR ENOUGH TO BRING PWAT VALUES INTO THE 1.25"-1.50" RANGE BY
18Z MON...AND TO AROUND 1.5" BY 00Z TUE. FURTHERMORE...WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS DRIFTING SEAWARD...SFC/LOW LVL WINDS WILL TAKE ON A
SLIGHTLY MORE SRLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL SHIFT ANY LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVNG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MERGER BACK TO THE E...WHILE W/SW FLOW THRU
THE H85-H50 STEERING LVL SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWBACK PRECIP
ALONG THE BREVARD/VOLUSIA CO COASTS.

THERE REMAINS A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE H85-H30 LYR
THAT WILL TAKE A WHILE TO FULLY MODIFY...GFS SUGGESTING AVG LYR
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS BTWN 10-15C THRU 18Z MON...BTWN 7-10C THRU 00Z
TUE...WHICH WILL LIMIT COVERAGE POTENTIAL. WILL CAP POPS AT 30PCT
FROM BREVARD/OSCEOLA NWD...20PCT FOR THE TREASURE COAST/LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION AS SEABREEZE FORMATION AND INLAND PROPAGATION WILL
BE GREATER OVER THE SRN CWA...WHILE THE MORE SRLY H100-H70 FLOW
PLACES MUCH OF OKEECHOBEE CO IN THE SHADOW OF LAKE-O. MAX TEMPS
SIMILAR TO TODAY...HIGHS ARND 90F ACROSS THE INTERIOR...SEA BREEZE
KEEPING COAST MAXES IN THE MID 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT...SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE SOME ACTIVE EVENING
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY GENERATE ALONG A SEA BREEZE COLLISION FROM
WRN OKEECHOBEE/WRN OSCEOLA COUNTIES OVER METRO ORLANDO INTO VOLUSIA
COUNTY. MID LVL STEERING FLOW FROM THE WEST WILL BRING SOME
CONVECTION BACK TO THE EAST COAST BY LATE EVENING...MAINLY NORTH OF
VERO BEACH. WILL CONFINE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S.

TUE-WED NGT...HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FOR MID WEEK IN THE
40-50 PCT RANGE TUE INCREASING TO 50-60 PCT ON WED AS A COOL FRONT
SLIDES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH TUE AND TOWARD THE NRN PENINSULA ON
WED...AND DOWN THE PENINSULA WED NIGHT. DEEP LAYER SW-W FLOW WILL
INCREASE TUE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH DIGGING TWD THE MID-LWR MS VALLEY.
DEEPER MOISTURE AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SOME STRONG
STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL MOVE OUT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC BY
LATE EVENING. DEEPER PREFRONTAL MOISTURE WED AND S/W DIGGING TWD THE
NE GULF MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. APPEARS WE COULD SEE A MARGINAL STRAIGHT LINE
WIND AND HAIL THREAT WITH STORMS ON WED. CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
ACROSS SRN SECTIONS INTO WED EVENING BEFORE PUSHING OFF THE SE FL
COAST BY THU MORNING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
TUE WITH OFFSHORE FLOW AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WED WITH MORE
CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER STORM COVERAGE. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S WILL COOL INTO THE 60S LATE WED NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

THU-SUN...UPPER PATTERN GREATLY AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CONUS FROM THU
INTO WEEKEND AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE SHOOTS N THRU THE CENTRAL U.S.
FOSTERING A TROUGH PLUNGING S OVER THE EAST U.S. THIS SETS THE STAGE
FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT TO MOVE WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY THU WITH LOCAL POST FRONTAL DRYING...THEN REINFORCED WITH ANOTHER
SHOT OF CONTINENTAL DRY AIR BY FRI WITH CONTINUED NW-N FLOW. PLEASANT
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AS MAX TEMPS DIAL BACK TO LOWER 80S EACH DAY THU-
SAT...WITH MIN TEMPS L/M60S THU WITH INTERIOR LOCATIONS FINDING SOME
UPPER 50S FRI-SAT MORNINGS. HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE AREA SUNDAY WILL
KEEP DRY WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE TO END THE WEEKEND WITH LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WARMER AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...THRU 02/18Z.
SFC WINDS: THRU 02/02Z...E/SE 9-14KTS WITH OCNL SFC G18-22KTS.
BTWN 02/02Z-02/05Z...BCMG S/SE 3-7KTS. BTWN 02/12-02/15 BCMG S/SE
8-12KTS.

VSBYS/WX/CIGS: BTWN 02/09Z-02/13Z AREAS MVFR CIGS/LCL MVFR VSBYS IN
BR/STATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-MONDAY...PERSISTENT GENTLE TO MODERATE E/SE BREEZE TO
CONTINUE AS HI PRES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST DRIFTS TOWARD BERMUDA. BY
DAYBREAK MON...THE SERLY WINDS WILL HAVE PLACE FOR THE BETTER PART
OF THREE DAYS...MORE THAN ENOUGH TIME TO PUSH THE SHORT PD WIND CHOP
FROM THE BAHAMA SHADOW ACRS THE LCL ATLC. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHOPPY
TO ROUGH SEA CONDITIONS WITH SEAS 3-4FT AND DOMINANT WAVE PDS AOB
6SEC.

TUE-WED...SOUTHERLY FLOW TO 10-15 KNOTS TUE WILL BECOME WESTERLY WED
AHEAD OF A COOL FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS WED NIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT NEAR SHORE TO 4-5 FT OFFSHORE. SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE TUE AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON WED AS THE FRONT DRAWS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS WITH WIND GUSTS
ABOVE 34 KNOTS AS THE STORMS MOVE TWD THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR
SHORE WATERS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THU-FRI...GUSTY NW-N FLOW IS EXPECTED THU INTO FRIDAY BEHIND THE
INITIAL FRONT AND AGAIN BEHIND A REINFORCING DRY FRONT ON FRIDAY.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-6 FT OFFSHORE AND POSSIBLY HIGHER IN THE GULF
STREAM LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY WX PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO A WETTER PATTERN THROUGH MIDWEEK
AS HI PRES OVER THE W ATLC WORKS ITS WAY SEAWARD. DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL FILTER INTO THE STATE...KEEPING AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES AOA 40PCT. S/SERLY SFC WINDS BLO 15MPH ON MON...BCMG S/SW
ON TUE AS A NEW FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.

HIGHER STORMS CHANCES EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON AND WED AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THU-SAT BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH MIN RHS AS LOW AS 30 PCT ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  86  70  87 /  10  30  30  50
MCO  71  90  70  90 /  10  30  30  40
MLB  71  86  71  89 /  10  30  30  50
VRB  69  86  72  88 /  10  30  30  50
LEE  71  90  71  87 /   0  30  30  40
SFB  70  89  71  90 /  10  30  30  40
ORL  71  89  72  89 /  10  30  30  40
FPR  70  86  71  90 /  10  20  20  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...VOLKMER



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