Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 290054
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
854 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MIGRATED EASTWARD OVER THE
NRN FL PENINSULA LIES JUST OFFSHORE THE VOLUSIA/FLAGLER COAST
BASED ON LATEST OBS. FRONTAL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
REMAINS EXTENDED ROUGHLY FROM NRN VOLUSIA COUNTY TO CITRUS COUNTY
THIS EVENING. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL DIMINISH INTO LATE EVENING. HOWEVER
HRRR/WRF BOTH INDICATE ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
IN BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AS FRONTAL TROUGH SHIFTS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. WILL
THEREFORE KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM ORLANDO TO CAPE AREA
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OSCEOLA AND SRN BREVARD COUNTIES PAST MIDNIGHT.

CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH
FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION AND TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE
EVENING MAY GENERATE TEMPO MVFR CONDS...MAINLY SOUTH OF KDAB-KLEE.
MORE PREDOMINANT MVFR CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH
A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER FOR NOW WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS VFR AND MONITOR FOR FUTURE TAF UPDATES.

A BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO GREATER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SOUTH OF KMCO TOMORROW AS DRIER AIR
WORKS INTO NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHING SLOW SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO WEAKER W/NW WINDS OFF OF THE
VOLUSIA COAST WITH AN ELEVATED W/SW FLOW FARTHER SOUTH UP TO 15-20
KNOTS OFFSHORE OF BREVARD COUNTY. WILL THEREFORE ADD SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR THESE WATERS OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL
RANGE FROM 2-3 FEET NEARSHORE UP TO 3-4 FEET OFFSHORE.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WEITLICH/SHARP


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