Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 022019
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
419 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THRU TONIGHT...BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVE FOCUSED SOUTH AND EAST
OF ORLANDO. STORMS ARE EASILY PRODUCING GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS
35-40 MPH WHICH WILL BE A HAZARD TO BOATERS. LATE MORNING CAPE
SOUNDING SHOWED 500 MB TEMPS ABOUT -9C WHICH IS FAIRLY
COLD/UNSTABLE ESP COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SFC HEATING AND
SEASONABLE ATMOS MOISTURE. SO AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS
POSSIBLE ALONG A BOUNDARY COLLISION...PRIMARILY BREVARD COUNTY
NEXT 2 HOURS OR SO.

INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND...
TROFING PATTERN OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL PERSIST AS A POSITIVE PNA
PHASE SPANNING THE CONTINENT HAS A FIRM GRIP ON THE WX PATTERN IS
SHOWING NO SIGN OF BREAKING DOWN ANYTIME SOON: NRN BRANCH OF THE
H30-H20 JET IS RATHER WEAK WITH MAX WINDS LARGELY AOB 70KTS...MOST
OF WHICH IS POSITIONED WELL N OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...CLOSEST
100KT JET STREAK THAT COULD UPROOT THE DEEP RIDGE OVER THE WRN
CONUS IS CURRENTLY OVER THE WEST PAC AND NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE CONUS UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FRONTAL TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
MID ATLC TO THE MIDWEST IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP WRLY FLOW THAT IS
LARGELY PARALLEL TO ITS ORIENTATION. THE BNDRY WILL DRIFT INTO THE
MID SOUTH/CAROLINA COAST ON FRI...BUT WITHOUT ANY SOURCE OF STRONG
MERIDIONAL FLOW...IT WILL STALL AND GRADUALLY WASH OUT OVER THE
WEEKEND BEFORE IT CAN PUSH INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.

PERSISTENT TROFING ACRS THE ERN CONUS WILL KEEP THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS
FROM DRIFTING MUCH FURTHER N THAN THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA THRU THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEP BUT WEAK S/SWRLY FLOW
THRU THE COLUMN WITH H100-H50 MEAN WINDS AOB 10KTS...H50-H20 MEAN
WINDS 10-15KTS.

WHILE SUCH FLOW REGIMES TEND TO FAVOR THE E HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA
FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION...THE FLOW WILL BE FLOW WILL BE TOO LIGHT FOR
STORM MOTION TO EXCEED 10MPH...THUS COVERAGE WILL BE AOB 50PCT.
REGIONAL MOISTURE IS SUFFICIENT FOR SCT POPS WITH MEAN RH AOA 60PCT
THRU THE H100-H50 LYR. LOW/MID LVL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL BE
WEAK AS THE TROFING PATTERN PREVENTS THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS FROM
STRENGTHENING. H70 TEMPS BTWN 7-8C AND H50 TEMPS ARND -9C WILL YIELD
MAX LAPSE RATES BTWN 6.5-7.0C/KM THRU THE LYR. RIDGE AXIS WILL BLOCK
OUT MOST MID LVL VORT LOBES WHILE H30-H20 WINDS AOB 20KTS WILL
PRODUCE WEAK UPR LVL DIVERGENCE AT BEST.

WILL GO WITH A 30-50 POP COVERAGE...HIGHEST ALONG AND N OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR...LOWEST TREASURE COAST AS WEAK SW FLOW WILL FOCUS THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE SHADOW ACRS THAT REGION. TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABV AVG AS IS
COMMON IN SW FLOW...MAXES IN THE L/M90S...MINS L/M70S.

MON-WED...
CPC/MID RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POSITIVE PNA PHASE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE DAMPENING OUT THE ERN TROF BY MIDWEEK. THE ATLC
RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACRS THE CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA
WITH WEAK S/SWRLY FLOW PREVAILING THRU THE LOW/MID LYRS OF THE
COLUMN. WILL KEEP DAILY POPS IN THE 30-50PCT RANGE THRU THE DAYTIME
PDS...CHC/SLGT CHC THRU THE EVNGS. TEMPS CONSISTENT WITH MID FL
SUMMER...MAXES L/M90S AND MINS L/M70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
TSRA WITH GUSTY WINDS 30-35 KTS WILL AFFECT TERMINALS TIX-MLB DUE
TO OUTFLOW/SEA BREEZE COLLISION 20-24Z. RESIDUAL RAINS AND
EMBEDDED TSRA WILL CONTINUE TIL 02Z OR SO...THEN VFR THRU AT LEAST
14Z. SCT TSRA WILL REDEVELOP 16Z-20Z FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...STORMS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THRU EARLY EVE EASILY
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 30 KNOTS MAINLY NORTH OF SEABASTIAN INLET.
OTHERWISE...THE SE SEA BREEZE WILL VEER TO THE S AND SW AFTER
SUNSET WITH SEAS 1-2 FT.

INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND...
ATLC RIDGE AXIS WILL DRIFT ACRS THE CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA...
MAINTAINING A GENTLE TO MODERATE SRLY BREEZE OVER THE LCL CSTL
WATERS...BCMG SE NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTN WITH THE FORMATION OF THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3FT...UP TO 4FT OVER THE
OFFSHORE LEG N OF SEBASTIAN INLET. PRIMARY MARINE THREAT WILL BE
AFTN/EVNG TSRAS MVG OFFSHORE THAT WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING SFC
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  92  75  91 /  40  30  20  40
MCO  74  94  75  93 /  50  30  30  50
MLB  74  90  75  91 /  40  30  20  30
VRB  73  91  74  91 /  20  30  20  30
LEE  76  93  77  93 /  20  30  30  50
SFB  75  94  76  93 /  40  30  30  50
ORL  76  93  77  93 /  40  30  30  50
FPR  73  91  73  90 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

KELLY/SPRATT



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