Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 240852
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
452 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...

...Hazardous boating conditions continue into the weekend...
...High Rip Current threat and High Surf at the Atlantic beaches
today...

Today/Tonight...Local weather pattern remains dominated by an
expansive area of high pressure pushing off the middle Atlantic
coast. A continued tight pressure gradient over the peninsula will
support breezy east flow through the afternoon. Weak dry air
advection with PWAT values dropping to around 0.75" and a suppressed
airmass should rule out measurable precipitation over most of the
area, though an isolated shower could produce brief light rain
and/or sprinkles along our coastal counties. Expect an increase in
sunshine relative to Thursday, though patches of marine
stratocumulus moving onshore will make for periods of
broken/overcast skies. Inland areas will warm to around 80F, with
slightly lower temps along the coast given the stout onshore flow.

Large and pounding surf remain a concern along the Atlantic beaches,
with breaking waves between 5 to 7 feet expected to continue through
this evening. A high surf advisory, along with a high risk for rip
currents remain in effect through this evening. Residents and
visitors are reminded to heed the advice of lifeguards as well as
beach patrol flags and signs.

Gusty onshore flow will diminish after sunset, but the local
pressure gradient will remain tight enough to maintain surface winds
around 10mph inland while remaining breezy along the immediate
coast. Overnight lows a few degrees either side of 60F across the
interior with continued warmer temps along the coast.

Sat...Area will be sandwiched between a couple of mid level lows,
one over the Bahamas and another lifting NE over MO with a wedge
of upper ridging over FL peninsula. In the low levels, high
pressure ridge to the north over the western Atlc will maintain
an onshore (E/SE) flow. Model soundings show considerable dry air
in the mid levels but considerable high clouds may filter the
sunshine. And fair weather cu may pancake beneath a fairly strong
subsidence inversion near 850 mb which could produce more clouds
than sun. Will call it partly cloudy for now. At least rain
chances will be too low to mention.

Sun-Thu...Weather looks rather tranquil as mean layer ridging
remains nearby and a couple of mid/upper level disturbances pass
to the north of the peninsula through the period. As a result,
rain chances will remain quite low and are not mentioned in the
extended forecast. With no significant frontal passages or
intrusions of cool air, high temperatures will be above normal
in the low 80s coast and mid 80s interior with a few upper 80s
possible late in the week. Lows will be a little more seasonal in
the upper 50s and lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Generally VFR with periods of BKN/OVC clouds at FL035-FL045 moving
in off the Atlantic. Continued breezy east flow with gusts up to 20
to 25 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Today/Tonight...Hazardous small craft boating conditions (both winds
and seas) continue into late tonight for all marine legs. East winds
around 20 knots will keep seas 6 to 8 feet nearshore and up to 10
feet offshore.

Saturday...High pressure ridge over the western Atlc will produce
an E/SE wind flow 15-20 knots. This will keep seas elevated
5-6FT nearshore Volusia and 6-7FT elsewhere. So have made some
adjustments to the Small Craft Advisory. Lowered the SCA early Sat
for nearshore Volusia and extended the SCA through Sat aftn across
the remainder of the waters. May need to extend SCA for the
offshore waters only Sat night as winds remain near 15 knots.

Sun-Tue...E/SE pressure gradient will weaken further Sunday and
Monday supporting wind speeds around 10 knots, veering southerly
Tue. Seas however will remain near 6 feet due to long period
swells thru early next week. This should produce hazardous
conditions near inlets for small craft esp during the outgoing
tide. So will likely need a Caution for all marine zones.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  63  79  62 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  79  61  83  61 /  10  10  10  10
MLB  77  66  78  62 /  10  10  10  10
VRB  77  66  79  61 /  20  10  10  10
LEE  79  60  82  61 /  10   0  10  10
SFB  78  61  81  60 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  79  61  82  62 /  10  10  10  10
FPR  77  65  79  60 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
     Volusia County-Indian River-Martin-Northern Brevard County-
     Southern Brevard County-St. Lucie.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for Flagler Beach
     to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Saturday for Flagler Beach
     to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to
     Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-
     60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20
     nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Ulrich
LONG TERM....Kelly


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