Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 011536
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1035 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...

...ROUGH SURF AND HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES TODAY...

...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ON THE OPEN ATLANTIC...

CURRENT...LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS SPRAWLED ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS/WRN ATLC WITH ITS AXIS ALONG THE EAST COAST. A WEAK
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS EMBEDDED WITH THE RIDGE...EXTENDING
NEWD FROM ECFL. A DISCERNIBLE WIND/THERMAL DISCONTINUITY ASCD WITH
THIS...AS WELL AS THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOWS UP IN THE SURFACE
METARS EARLY THIS MORNING A LITTLE NORTH OF KTPA-KMCO-KTIX. THIS
BOUNDARY SEPARATES SFC WINDS WITH A LITTLE MORE NRLY COMPONENT AMD
TEMPS IN THE 60S FROM MORE EASTERLY FLOW AND L70S...BUT IS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE WITH TIME. VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS MORE IN THE
WAY OF LOW-MID CLOUDS NEAR/NORTH OF THIS LINE. KMLB 88D SHOWS BANDS
OF LOW TOPPED SHRA EMBEDDED IN THE ESE LOW LEVEL FLOW STREAMING WNW
AND ONSHORE THE ECFL COAST IN A FEW LOCATIONS...THOUGH ASCD PRECIP
HAS BEEN LIGHT THUS FAR.

MORNING KXMR RAOB IS QUITE MOIST FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH H60
WITH A SMALL POCKET OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BTWN H85-H75. CCAFS 915
MHZ PROFILER DATA SHOWS 0-2KM FLOW HAS WEAKENED TO ABOUT 15-18KT
OVER THE LAST 3-4HR.

REST OF TODAY/TONIGHT...E-ESE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VEER
AND RELAX TODAY. NORTHERN PIECE OF THE INVERTED TROUGH PINCHES OFF
AND LIFTS OUT TO THE NE WHILE THE REMNANT LEFT BEHIND OVER FL DAMPENS
OUT. SOME SLIGHT DRYING WILL OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS MEAN PWATS
LOWER BY A COUPLE TENTHS BUT LOCAL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
MOIST FOR ISOLD TO SCT DIURNAL SHRA TO FORM THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
COOL H50 TEMPS (-11C) WITH SOMEWHAT RESPECTABLE LAPSE RATES COULD
AS MAX TEMPS RISE TOWARD THE U70S TO AROUND 80F FOR MOST AREAS...A
LITTLE WARMER SOUTH AND A BIT COOLER ACROSS THE NORTH.

TONIGHT...12Z NAM CONTINUES TO INDICATE EARLY EVENING PRECIP OVER
THE NRN INTERIOR. LEFT IN MENTION OF EVENING SHOWERS NEAR/NW OF THE
I-4 CORRIDOR. LOWS IN THE 60S WITH PATCHY DENSE LATE NIGHT FOG
EXPECTED.

$$

.AVIATION...IFR CIGS ACROSS THE NORTH HAVE BEGUN TO LIFT AND BREAK
UP SOME...WITH AREAS MVFR-VFR CIGS BKN025-035 TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT
TREND TOWARD SCT-LCL BKN030-040 AFTER 18Z WITH ISOLD TO SCT SHRA
AND SMALL CHC FOR TS FOR THE INLAND AERODROMES (LEE/SFB/MCO/ISM).

$$

.MARINE...LATEST BUOY AND C-MAN OBS SHOW COINCIDENT DECREASE IN
WINDS SHOWN IN THE PROFILER DATA. WINDS HAVE DROPPED TO 15-18KT NEAR
SHORE BUT REMAIN PRETTY CLOSE TO 20KT BEYOND 20NM. HAVE TWEAKED THE
ADVISORY NEAR SHORE TO SHOW SCA FOR SEAS ONLY AND HAVE ENDED IT A
FEW HRS EARLIER.

EXPECT ROUGH SURF AND NUMEROUS RIP CURRENT AT AREAS BEACHES AS LARGE
SWELLS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SHOREWARD.

&&

UPDATE/SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX UPDATES...WEITLICH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015/

...WARMING TREND INTO MID WEEK...

MONDAY...THE INVERTED TROUGH OFF THE COAST WEAKENS/MERGES WITH A
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND SHIFT WINDS
TO THE NORTHEAST. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR
INTERIOR...PRIMARILY LAKE COUNTY... WHERE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS
SUGGEST A LATE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL OCCUR. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH
LOW 80S FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATED BY SEVERAL DEGREES
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO COOL ATLANTIC SHELF WATERS.

TUE-THU...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TUESDAY WILL ALLOW WINDS TO VEER GRADUALLY FROM THE NORTHEAST LATE
MONDAY NIGHT TO SE BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. AN AMPLE RIDGING ALOFT
BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REACH MORE SUMMERLIKE READINGS WITH MID 80S OVER THE FAR INTERIOR BY
WEDNESDAY. MID TO UPPER 70S EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE
THE CHILLY ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
COOLER. ON THURSDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OUT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM...EVEN ALONG
THE COAST. WILL BE WATCHING FOR AN INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE EACH
AFTERNOON GIVEN THE LARGE TEMPERATURE SPREAD BETWEEN THE COOL
ATLANTIC SHELF WATERS AND WARMING OVER THE PENINSULA.

FRI-SUN...FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLIDE THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY PUSHING
OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW FOR A QUICK TRANSITION TO NE
FLOW AND POST FRONTAL CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER CHANCES FOR LATE WEEK
AND FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO SUGGEST SOME
SEMBLANCE OF A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFFSHORE EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA...VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. FOR NOW...KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST...THOUGH FUTURE FORECAST ITERATIONS MAY HAVE TO INCREASE
POPS FURTHER. AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND NE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR STRATUS CURRENTLY KLEE VCNTY MAY AFFECT TERMINALS
FROM KISM-KMCO-KSFB-DAB THRU 13Z. SRN CSTL TERMINALS KVRB-KSUA WILL
HAVE SOME BRIEF MVFR SHRA WITH ACTIVITY MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE ATLC
THIS MORNING. CHC FOR AN AFTN SHRA MAINLY INTERIOR TERMINALS BUT
HAVE INCLUDED FOR CSTL TERMINALS AS WELL WITH SOME SHOWERS WHICH MAY
MOVE ONSHORE INTO THE AFTN.

&&

.MARINE... SEAS PUSHING 8FT AT BUOY 41114 AND 9.5 FT AT BUOY 41009
AND LONG FETCH ACROSS THE ATLC WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED TODAY ACROSS
THE EAST CENTRAL FL ATLC WATERS EVEN WITH WINDS DECREASING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE SCA THIS MORNING FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
WITH OFFSHORE SCA CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT
SEAS TO FALL INTO THE SCEC RANGE AS SE WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS DECREASE
SOME INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

MON-THU...N/NE FLOW 5-10 KNOTS ON MONDAY WILL VEER ONSHORE TUE AND
INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS BY THE AFT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE
S/SE BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WITH WINDS UP TO 15-20 KNOTS AT TIMES OFFSHORE. SEAS 3-5 FT EARLY IN
THE WEEK WITH SEAS UP TO 6 FEET OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT/WED AS WINDS
BECOME MORE BREEZY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  60  74  60 /  40  10  10  10
MCO  81  62  81  61 /  40  20  10  10
MLB  80  63  77  63 /  40  10  10  10
VRB  81  64  78  61 /  40  10  10  10
LEE  80  63  80  61 /  40  30  10  10
SFB  79  61  79  60 /  40  20  10  10
ORL  80  62  80  61 /  40  20  10  10
FPR  82  63  78  63 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 PM FROM FLAGLER
     BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER
     INLET 20-60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$


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