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000
FXUS62 KMLB 191938
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
330 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...

THROUGH TONIGHT...EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE WCSB
HAS WANED SOME AS IT MOVED INTO THE INTERIOR...LEAVING ONLY ISOLD
ACTIVITY THERE ATTM. ATTENDANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/DE FACTO WCSB LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL INTERACT WITH THE ECSB A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN PREV
ANTICIPATED. NET RESULT SHOULD BE A MORE ACTIVE LATER AFTERNOON NEAR
THE EAST COAST...WITH ACTIVITY POSSIBLY WINDING DOWN A BIT EARLIER.
BECAUSE STORMS HAVE SHOWN A PROPENSITY FOR RE-FIRING AND LINGERING
WELL INTO THE EVENING THE PAST FEW DAYS...WILL LEAVE FIRST PERIOD
WITH PRETTY HEALTHY RAIN CHANCES (20-40) THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
TONIGHT (2 AM).

THU-FRI...INCREASE IN MEAN PWAT INDICATED BETWEEN WEAK SFC TROUGH
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND THE RIDGE AXIS TO ITS SOUTH LIFTING NORTH
INTO CENTRAL FL. INHERITED FCST WITH RAIN CHANCES 40-50 PCT BOTH
DAYS...WHICH LOOKS PRETTY GOOD...EVEN THOUGH THEE NUMBERS RUN ABOUT
10-15 PCT ABOVE MAV GUIDANCE ON FRI. MAXES GENERALLY IN THE L90S
INLAND... AND U80S TO AROUND 90 ALONG THE COAST.

SAT-WED...ATLC RIDGE AXIS REMAINS NORTH OF ECFL THROUGH THE EXTENDED
RANGE WHICH WILL SHIFT HIGHER POPS TO THE WRN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA.
OVER THE MLB CWA...HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE NRN AND WRN COUNTIES
(NEAR/NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR). POPS REMAIN NEAR CLIMO/30-40 PCT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.  MAX TEMPS IN THE U80S COAST
A TO L90S INLAND...MINS IN THE LOW/MID 70S...WITH U70S ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD SHRA/TS NOW WELL EAST LEE-ISM AND JUST ABOUT
CLEARING THE SFB-MCO CORRIDOR. DAB-MLB-SUA CORRIDOR WILL HAVE BEST
CHANCE OF TS 20Z-24Z AS WELL-DEFINED BOUNDARY COLLISION TAKES PLACE
ABOUT 15-30 MILES INLAND FROM THE ATLC COAST...WITH ACTIVITY MOVING
BACK EAST TOWARD THE COASTAL AERODROMES.

&&

.MARINE...THU-MON...WINDS BACK FROM SSW/SW 10KT TONIGHT TO MORE SRLY
ON THU AND THEN SERLY FROM FRIDAY ONWARD...AS SPEEDS PICK UP TO BTWN
10-15KT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM 2 OR 2-3FT NEAR SHORE TO
4FT WELL OFFSHORE. CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT SWAN FCST FOR OFFSHORE SEAS
BY A GOOD FOOT AS IT HAS BEEN RUNNING HIGH FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  90  74  89 /  30  50  30  50
MCO  73  92  73  92 /  20  50  30  50
MLB  76  89  77  89 /  40  50  40  40
VRB  75  88  76  89 /  40  50  30  40
LEE  74  92  74  92 /  20  50  30  50
SFB  75  92  75  93 /  20  50  30  50
ORL  75  91  75  93 /  20  50  30  50
FPR  74  88  75  89 /  30  50  30  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

FORECAST/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
RADAR/IMPACT WX....WIMMER