Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 251859
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
255 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...DRIER AIRMASS HAS BEEN SUCCESSFUL THIS
AFTERNOON AS COVERAGE HAS  REMAINED ISOLATED ALONG THE DIFFUSE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE. RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW BEST CONVERGENCE HAS MORE
OR LESS ALREADY PUSHED WEST OF THE AREA WITH PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS NEAR KISSIMMEE RIVER AND LAKE COUNTY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

GIVEN THE DIFFUSE NATURE OF THE SEA BREEZE SUPPRESSION BEHIND IT IS
MINIMAL. A FEW ATLANTIC SHOWERS MAY REACH THE COAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT EXPECT OVERALL COVERAGE TO BE
LOWER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS MILD WITH MID-
UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS AND LOW-MID
70S ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER DAY...MORE DEEP AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW. SYNOPTIC
PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE INTO TUESDAY AS WE REMAIN ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND UNDERNEATH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN EVEN DRIER AIRMASS...SO EXPECT MORNING
ATLANTIC SHOWERS TO BE LIMITED. COVERAGE REMAINS ISOLATED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH A DIFFUSE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE...PERHAPS
BECOMING WIDELY SCATTERED AS ACTIVITY REACHES THE KISSIMMEE RIVER
AND LAKE COUNTY. WON`T RULE OUT A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO WITH
ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WE WILL SEE THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY
WEST OF THE REGION BY MID AFTERNOON AS WITH THE PAST FEW DAYS.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST AND LOW 90S INLAND.

...PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

TUE NIGHT-THU NIGHT...AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION AND MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO
BREEZY ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS TAP
INTO DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND DECREASE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK. MAINTAINED DRY
CONDITIONS WED-THU AS PW VALUES CONTINUE TO DECREASE. WHILE A FEW
ONSHORE MOVING LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAINLY DURING THE NIGHT HOURS
NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...POPS REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP
OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS NEAR SEASONAL NORMS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS MORE MILD ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO UPPER 80S-LOW 90S
INTERIOR. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

FRI-MON...MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE REGION CONTINUING
AN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA WITH POPS INCREASING CLOSER TO NORMAL...UP
TO 30-40 PERCENT DURING THE WEEKEND. NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE IN TEMPS
WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION... ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WEST OF KLEE-KORL-KMCO-KISM PUSHING
INTO WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AFTER 20Z. ISOLD ATLC SHRA AFFECTING
COASTAL SITES SOUTH OF KTIX THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWER COVERAGE
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. TEMPO MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN/NEAR ANY SHOWERS
AND ALONG COAST. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KTS CONTINUE THROUGH
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG COAST.

DRIER AIR LEADS TO LOWER COVERAGE ON TUES. SIMILAR PATTERN WITH
ISOLD SHRA TRANSLATING INLAND AFTER 15Z...POSSIBLY FOR STORM OR TWO
NEAR KMCO/KLEE...BEFORE MOST CONVECTION SHIFTS WEST OF AREA AFTER
20Z.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT-TUESDAY...LOCAL ATLANTIC REMAINS CHOPPY AS EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS REMAIN STEADY NEAR 15KTS...OCCASIONALLY 15-20KTS AT
TIMES. SEAS CONTINUING 3-5 FEET OVER MOST OF THE WATERS WITH UP TO 6
FEET AT TIMES IN THE GULF STREAM.

POOR CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OPERATION WILL CONTINUE.  EXERCISE
CAUTION STATEMENTS REMAIN NECESSARY ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF STREAM.

WED-SAT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
MAINTAIN A MODERATE ONSHORE BREEZE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH WIND
SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT TIMES
OFFSHORE. SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5FT RANGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD WARM LOWS FOR TODAY/TOMORROW.

LOC  DATE   HI-MIN
DAB 25-MAY  75 1991
MCO 25-MAY  74 2014
MLB 25-MAY  76 1991
VRB 25-MAY  77 1991

DAB 26-MAY  73 1991
MCO 26-MAY  74 1943
MLB 26-MAY  78 2014
VRB 26-MAY  76 1991

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  86  73  84 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  73  91  71  89 /  10  20  10  10
MLB  78  88  75  84 /  20  20  10  10
VRB  75  87  74  85 /  20  20  10  10
LEE  75  92  71  90 /  10  20  10  10
SFB  73  91  70  88 /  10  20  10  10
ORL  73  90  71  89 /  10  20  10  10
FPR  75  88  74  85 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....CRISTALDI



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