Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
FXUS62 KMLB 240734
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
334 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017
Today and Tonight...Low pressure centers over the Atlc waters
east of central FL and along the SC coast will merge over the
next 12-18H and accelerate away from the NE FL coast. A late
season frontal boundary will slide across the forecast area today,
bringing a shot of dry and cooler air this afternoon and into tonight.
Psg of this boundary will be accompanied by a relatively brief
chance of showers (20-25 pct) as the feature crosses over central
Florida around mid day and south of the forecast area by late
Expect breezy westerly winds to develop after psg of the frontal
boundary during afternoon, and some gusts of 22 to 25 knots will
be possible from around Osceola county and the Space Coast south
to Lake Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast through nightfall under
clearing skies from mid afternoon onward. Tonight: a pleasantly
cool evening is in store as temperatures dip into the M50s-L60s
with cooler dryer air settling S into the region. Winds will
diminish late to around 5 to 10 mph for the overnight hours with
a little higher winds along the coast and beaches and mostly clear
Tue-Wed...Low pressure lifts farther up the east coast with
westerly winds and mainly clear skies over the area behind it. High
temperatures on Tue climb toward the mid 80s under mostly sunny
skies and a westerly wind 10-15 mph. Overnight lows Tue night will
be near 60/lower 60s much of the area but some mid/upper 50s rural
interior, especially areas north of Lake Okeechobee. On Wed, a
lighter westerly wind component will allow a better defined
afternoon sea breeze with highs topping out in the lower 80s at the
coast but climbing into the mid/upper 80s inland. Overnight mins
Wed night moderate a couple degrees over Tue night readings.
Thurs-Sunday...Forecast will be warm through the weekend with
little prospect for rainfall. High pressure ridge axis will persist
from the Atlantic across Florida and moisture remains limited. 00z
runs of the GFS/ECMWF look less enthusiastic about low rain chances
on this side of the peninsula for Saturday so have kept any PoPs
over land areas below mentionable values.
Temperatures late this week through the weekend will be running
warmer than average for late April, which should be in the low/mid
80s. Highs will climb to near 90/lower 90s inland each day and
mid/upper 80s at the coast before the sea breeze puts a lid on the
temperature climb. Overnight mins will be running noticeably warmer
than the lower 60s that are normal for late April, with lows ranging
from the mid/upper 60s inland to lower 70s at the coast.
.AVIATION...some areas of early stratus with sct-ocnl bkn cigs nr
FL010-015 possible FM KISM-KTTS southward through 24/14z. Becoming
MNLY VFR with sct shra along with sct clouds NR FL 025-035 and Cigs
NR FL 070-080 through 24/17z. becmg VFR with SFC WND G24kts
area wide 24/19z-25/00z.
.MARINE...Today and Tonight...Departure of low pressure E of the
FL Coast will bring an approaching frontal boundary as winds
switch to SW this morning then West after psg of the front this
afternoon. Breezy to fresh westerlies over the open waters will
require continuation of the caution stmt over the open waters
with seas 4 feet within 20 NM and up to 6 ft offshore by tonight.
Winds and seas will begin to diminish overnight as gradient flow
begins to decrease.
Tue-Tue night...West winds 10-15 kt early Tue will diminish into the
afternoon. Seas up to 6 feet may linger into early Tue before slowly
diminishing into the evening.
Wed-Fri...Persistent Atlantic ridge axis will keep local waters
with SE-S winds 10-15 kt or less with seas mainly 2-3 ft near
shore and up to 4-5 ft well offshore.
.FIRE WEATHER...Higher RH conditions on Sunday were only temporary
as most areas inland missed out from the weekend rain event.
Passage of today`s frontal boundary will bring another bout of dry
breezy conditions and any new or existing fires will be subject to
a wind test this afternoon. RH values are forecast in the M40s to
L 50s this afternoon then much dryer conditions forecast on Tue
with RH in the M30s to L40s with continuation of Wly winds,
although lighter than today.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 81 59 83 60 / 20 0 0 10
MCO 83 59 85 60 / 20 0 0 10
MLB 85 61 83 61 / 20 0 0 10
VRB 87 61 84 60 / 20 10 0 10
LEE 80 59 85 60 / 20 0 0 10
SFB 82 60 86 61 / 20 0 0 10
ORL 81 62 85 61 / 20 0 0 10
FPR 87 59 84 60 / 20 10 0 10