Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 290733
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
333 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC WILL PROVIDE A
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AND INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS RECOVERING UPWARDS TO AROUND 2.0
INCHES. IN ADDITION...MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
COOL...BREAKING DOWN THE STRONGER INVERSION THAT HAS BEEN IN
PLACE. THIS WILL LEAD TO GREATER INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA
AND MORE NORMAL DIURNAL PRECIP COVERAGE...FAVORING MIDDAY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON PERIOD WITH MOST OF THE STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR.
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST UP TO MID 90S
INLAND.

TONIGHT...STORMS DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
THIN LEAVING SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WARM WITH LOWS IN
MID 70S COAST AND THE INTERIOR AROUND LARGER TOWN AND CITIES. MID TO
LOW 70S WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 SOUTH BREVARD TO MARTIN AND WEST INTO
OSCEOLA A70S AT THE COAST.

SAT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE NEAR CAPE
CANAVERAL THEN MIGRATE NORTHWARD...CREATING A LIGHT ONSHORE
GRADIENT WIND FLOW. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGH SO
EXPECT POPS TO BE IN THE SCATTERED RANGE WITH HIGHEST VALUES
NEAR 50 PERCENT IN LAKE COUNTY AND THE LOWEST VALUES AROUND
30 PERCENT ALONG THE TREASURE COAST.  ACTIVITY SHOULD FAVOR
THE COAST IN THE MORNING THEN BUILD STEADILY INLAND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK...AXIS OF DEEP LAYER RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE A DEEP
ONSHORE FLOW REGIME...WHICH IS MORE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STORMS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
FAR INTERIOR. EXPECT A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT THE COAST
AT NIGHT...WHICH HAS BEEN RARE THIS SUMMER. THE 00Z GFS HAD
SOME DRYING WORKING IN FROM THE EAST EARLY IN THE WEEK THEN
MOISTENING BACK UP BY LATE WEEK. OVERALL HAVE GONE WITH POPS
30-40 PERCENT FOR THE INTERIOR AND NEAR 30 PERCENT ALONG THE
COAST (AND 20 PERCENT AT NIGHT). TEMPS LOOK TYPICAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR EXCEPT A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL...LOW-MID 90S
FOR THE INTERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH 29/18Z. ISOLATED STORMS AWAY FROM THE COAST EARLY
AFTERNOON SPREADING INLAND WES DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPO MVFR
VCNTY MCO 20Z-24Z.

&&

.MARINE...
CURRENT-TODAY-TONIGHT...
NOAA BUOYS 009 AND 010 AND THE CMAN SITE IN THE PORT CANAVERAL AREA
WERE RECORDING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THE TWO
NOAA BUOYS...009 AND 010...AND THE TWO SCRIPPS BUOYS JUST OFF THE
COAST WERE RECORDING 3 TO 4 FOOT LONG PERIOD SEAS.

SURFACE RIDGE NEARBY WILL RESULT IN SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
AND 2 TO 3 FOOT SEAS JUST OFF THE COAST AND 3 TO 4 FOOT SEAS
BEYOND A FEW MILES OF SHORE. SEAS COMPOSED PRIMARILY OF A 3 FOOT
LONG PERIOD EAST SWELL.

SAT-TUE...AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MIGRATE JUST NORTH
OF THE WATERS AND PRODUCE AN EAST/SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. SPEEDS
LOOK TO BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THIS REGIME WILL FAVOR CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING...ABOUT 20-30
PERCENT COVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  92  76  91  76 /  40  20  30  30
MCO  94  76  94  75 /  40  20  40  30
MLB  92  78  90  77 /  30  20  30  20
VRB  91  75  90  76 /  30  10  30  20
LEE  95  76  94  76 /  50  20  50  30
SFB  95  77  94  76 /  40  20  40  30
ORL  94  77  94  77 /  40  20  40  30
FPR  90  76  90  75 /  30  10  30  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WIMMER
LONG TERM....LASCODY




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