Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 271947

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
347 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Tonight and Friday...Storms developing in the heat of the afternoon
will translate Ewd to the Atlc coast through nightfall with a
collision with a nearly stationary E coast breeze boundary providing
for opportunity for a few stronger storms to develop through
dusk. Tonight`s forecast features sct coverage of pcpn this
evening largely tied to daytime instability with an expected
dropoff in land based activity after around 10 PM. On Friday the
ridge over S FL responsible for lower than normal storm coverage
during recent afternoons will become less of a player as US E
coast trough north of FL begins to undergo amplification.
Afternoon instability and weakening of regional cap will bring
slightly higher rainfall chcs to the area with a mention of
afternoon storms in the 30-40 pct range given suitable moisture
and sfc heating. Slightly higher rain chcs wl exist across S
Central FL. Highs will range from the L-M90s.

From prev disc...

Saturday...Mid-upper trough will dig over the eastern CONUS and
drive a frontal boundary into the southeast states on Sat. This
will cause the axis of the Atlantic surface ridge, which was
slowly migrating north, to be shunted back to our south again.
Southwest flow on Fri looks sufficient to hold off the east coast
sea breeze in the north and delay it central/south. The flow will
then increase Sat and prevent the sea breeze. This will allow max
temps to reach the mid 90s over most of the area on both days.
When combined with surface dew points in the mid 70s, heat indices
will continue to reach to around 105.

A ribbon of drier than normal air aloft is forecast to impinge on
the area, particularly northern sections. MOS POPs are only
around 20 percent there both days, while the south squeaks out
close to normal values around 40 percent.

Sunday-Wednesday...The trough aloft along the eastern seaboard
(rather strong for late July) will dig far enough south to shove
a frontal boundary to near the Florida/Georgia border on Sunday.
This will allow for pre-frontal moisture band to begin to affect
the area. The models show that even after the main trough lifts
out early next week, a piece of it will persist over the southeast
states and keep a deep/moist southwest flow over the area through
at least mid week.

This will result in a wetter than normal period with several days
of POPs around 60 percent. The increased rain chances and
cloudiness will take a bite out of the sizable max temps of late,
with MOS showing highs in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees.


Primarily VFR conds areawide into 28/16Z with brief MVFR conds in
rainfall locations through 28/02Z mnly along the E cst sites.


Tonight...Surface ridge axis across the Srn waters will produce a
southerly component flow with wind speeds up to 10-15 knots N of
Cape Canaveral and around 10 kts along the Space and Treasure Cst
overnight with seas 1-2 feet near the coast, and up to 3 feet

Fri-Mon...The axis of the Atlantic high pressure ridge is forecast
over the central/south waters on Fri, then it will get shoved
south of the waters over the weekend as a front drops into the
southeast states. This will result in a southwest wind flow
around 10 knots Fri, then 10-15 knots Sat and into Sunday. Seas
look to be 2 feet nearshore and up to 3 feet well offshore. The
main small craft operator concern will be isolated-scattered
offshore moving storms Fri-Sat, then becoming scattered-numerous


DAB  75  94  76  94 /  30  30  10  20
MCO  75  94  76  93 /  30  30  10  20
MLB  76  94  75  94 /  20  40  20  30
VRB  75  94  75  95 /  10  40  20  40
LEE  77  93  77  92 /  20  30  10  20
SFB  76  95  77  95 /  30  30  10  20
ORL  76  95  78  93 /  30  30  10  20
FPR  74  94  74  95 /  10  40  20  50





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