Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 270121 AAA
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
820 PM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Very dry airmass today produced min RH values of 15 percent at
Leesburg this afternoon and 20-25 percent over metro Orlando.
Onshore flow kept dewpoints and RH values higher near the coast but
still a very pleasant day, if a bit breezy.  No significant changes
to the public forecast grids need for the overnight. Lowered Sky
cover across Martin county this evening into the first part of the
overnight based on current satellite trends. Still expect an
increase in clouds late tonight with isolated showers possible
Treasure coast as moisture begins to return northward.

Tonight-Monday (previous)...The large eastern CONUS surface high
will slide east and into the western Atlantic over the next 24
hours. Northeast surface winds will veer to east overnight and
southeast on Monday, while remaining at moderate strength. This
results in the remnant frontal boundary extending NE from Grand
Bahama Island to begin to pivot back to the NW overnight and
eventually northward tomorrow.

As residual frontal moisture starts to spread back toward the SE
coast, clouds along with a few low topped sprinkles or light rain
showers should begin to develop near the northern Bahamas and push
toward the coast and possibly onshore. As such, kept the low POP
for Martin/Saint Lucie Counties tonight, but held off on potential
for activity to move onshore until after midnight. Min temps will be
milder, but show a large spread from the far NW CWA (near 55F) to SE
(U60s).

Surface winds becoming SE will continue to advect shallow moisture
back N across the CWA, resulting in increasing clouds SE to NW along
with and a small diurnal shower chance for much of the area. Temps
will warm to the U70s to near 80F for the coastal areas, and L80s
farther inland.


&&

.AVIATION...(previous) VFR overnight save for a few ISOLD MVFR SHRA
possible INVOF SUA-FPR, mainly after 08Z. VFR CIGs near BKN035-040
spreading NW late tonight into Monday with brief ISOLD SHRA possible
at most of the aerodromes, although Probs/coverage too low to merit
VCSH away from the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Overnight...pressure gradient is tightest across the southern waters
this evening so will hold onto the Small Craft Advisory offshore the
treasure coast overnight as forecast. Scripps buoy 41116 shows seas
have subsided to 4.5 ft so will expire the SCA for the offshore
Brevard waters. Will keep Cautionary Statement in place for the
remainder of the gulf stream as there remains a north component to
the wind capable of producing seas up to 6 ft.

Mon...Winds veer out of the E/SE around 15 knots. Will probably need
a caution statement for the offshore waters/ Gulf Stream for seas up
to 6 ft. But even nearshore conditions should be choppy.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  58  78  66  80 /   0  20  20  20
MCO  58  83  65  85 /   0  20  10  10
MLB  65  80  68  82 /  10  20  20  20
VRB  66  80  68  81 /  10  20  20  20
LEE  55  83  64  85 /   0  20  10  10
SFB  57  82  65  84 /   0  20  10  10
ORL  58  83  65  85 /   0  20  10  10
FPR  66  80  69  82 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for Sebastian Inlet
     to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm.


&&

$$

Kelly/Pendergrast



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