Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 211940
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
340 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight-Fri...Lingering weak frontal trough that has extended
from the Treasure Coast northeast into the Atlantic will break up
into tonight. Moisture associated with this boundary will begin to
shift northwestward and onshore overnight into tomorrow, as low
level flow veers more E/SE. This should lead to increasing onshore
moving showers into tonight through early morning Friday with
greatest rain chances along the coast (up to 30 percent). Then
sufficient moisture and instability will exist for scattered
showers and isolated storms to develop and transition inland along
a diffuse east coast sea breeze through late morning into the
afternoon. Will keep PoPs elevated around 50 percent across the
area. Greater coverage of showers and increased cloud cover will
keep highs closer to normal, ranging from the mid to upper 80s.

Sat...As Maria continues its northward trek well east of
Florida a fairly brisk low-level E/ENE flow will be in place over
east central Florida. This stout onshore flow will bring with it
a wave of deeper moisture overspreading the area through the day
Saturday. 500 mb temps between -8 and -9 Celsius and the deep
moisture will lead to scattered to numerous showers and some
thunderstorms. Shower/storm activity will develop along the east
coast and gradually shift westward through the afternoon. Highest
rain chances will be west of the I-95 corridor (60%) with 50%
elsewhere. Large swells from TC Maria will lead to high surf and a
high risk of rip currents at area beaches.

Lows will be in the mid 70s with a few upper 70s possible along the
coast. Highs will in the mid to upper 80s along the coast and
approaching 90 over the interior.

Sun-Wed...(Previous Discussion) As Maria lifts north toward the
Mid-Atlantic waters, backside flow will assume a northeasterly
trajectory and perhaps nudge northerly. This will tap a drier
airmass to help squelch rain chances to below normal levels. With
the slackening pressure into mid-week winds will dampen allowing
for local circulations to resume but these will be less productive
(20-25 percent). Max temps will be near climo in the upper
80s/near 90. Min temps in the low to mid 70s.

Dangerous surf and rip currents will continue at the beaches
through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Generally VFR conds expected outside of isolated/
scattered SHRA approaching cstl terminals from the ATLC through the
overnight hours into Friday morning. Have generally covered
expected with showers with VCSH except KSUA vcnty which may see
some additional showers move onshore into late afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...

Tonight-Fri...High pressure ridge north of the area will generate
a gentle to moderate east-northeast breeze across the waters, with
wind speeds no greater than 10-15 knots. Swells from distant
Hurricane Maria will begin to spread into the offshore waters
later tonight into tomorrow, with seas 3-5 feet this evening,
increasing up to 6-7 feet offshore later tonight into tomorrow
north of Sebastian Inlet. Will therefore keep small craft exercise
caution headlines for the offshore waters of Volusia and Brevard
counties.

Sat-Sun...Poor to hazardous boating conditions expected as large
swells come in from TC Maria. Conditions will deteriorate through
the day Saturday into Sunday with seas building to 4-7 feet
nearshore by Saturday night and 8-11 feet in the offshore waters.
Seas continue to build on Sunday with 7-10 feet nearshore and
10-13 feet offshore. Winds generally out of the ENE at 10-15 kt
nearshore waters and 15- 20 kt offshore for Saturday before
relaxing a bit on Sunday to 10-15 kt out of the NE.

Mon-Tue...TC Maria is forecast to pull away toward the Mid-
Atlantic waters into early next week, with winds becoming
northerly and decreasing. However large long period swells up to
8-10 feet Monday will only gradually decrease into Tuesday,
continuing to produce hazardous to poor boating conditions
through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  86  75  85 /  30  50  30  50
MCO  74  88  74  87 /  10  50  30  60
MLB  76  87  77  86 /  30  50  30  50
VRB  74  87  75  86 /  30  50  30  50
LEE  73  89  74  88 /  10  50  20  60
SFB  73  88  74  87 /  20  50  30  60
ORL  74  88  74  87 /  10  50  30  60
FPR  74  87  75  86 /  30  50  30  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...Weitlich
MID TERM....Combs
AVIATION/IMPACT WX...Volkmer


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