Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 200026
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
825 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...

.UPDATE...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS E CENTRAL FL CURRENTLY WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT AHEAD OF A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL
SWING TOWARD THE STATE OVERNIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS ALL AREAS TO
CATEGORICAL WITH 18Z NAM AND GFS INDICATING HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FROM OSCEOLA AND BREVARD COUNTY NORTHWARD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HAVE ADDED LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FROM OSCEOLA AND BREVARD
NORTHWARD WITH AREAL AMOUNTS FROM NEAR ONE INCH TO ONE AND A HALF
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
WHERE SHOWER ACTIVITY TRAINS ONSHORE ALONG THE BREVARD AND THEN
VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST LATER TONIGHT AS SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP
OFFSHORE. ZFP UPDATE SENT FOR HIGHER THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MENTION.

PREVIOUS DISC FOR SAT-SUN...
BOTH THE 19/00Z GFS AND 18/12Z ECMWF SIMILAR IN SHOWING AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER TIER OF THE U.S. CATCHING THE
CLOSED LOW EAST OF FLORIDA AND JUST NORTH OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND
LIFTING IT NORTHEAST TO NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN CANADA. ENOUGH
MOISTURE PRESENT SATURDAY AND A VORT MAX PROVIDING SUFFICIENT LIFT
AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC COASTAL REGIONS TO PRODUCE LIKELY...60 POP... RAIN CHANCES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CHANCE...30-50 POP NORTH TO SOUTH...ON SUNDAY
AS MOISTURE RIBBON SLIDES DOWN THE STATES INTO SOUTHERN FLORIDA.
HIGHS MID AND UPPER 80S BOTH DAYS. LOWS SUN AND MON MORNING LOW 70S
EXCEPT UPPER 60S WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 INDIAN RIVER TO MARTIN AND
WEST ACROSS SOUTH OSCEOLA AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD -SHRA WITH AREAS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVING
ONSHORE FROM KMLB-KTIX WILL TRANSITION SLOWLY NWD OVERNIGHT. PERIODS
OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND BRIEF IFR VSBYS WITH +RA WITH THE SHOWERS
MOVING ONSHORE. AREA OF RAIN SHOULD LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT
KEEPING RA CHCS CONTINUING ACROSS NRN TERMINALS WITH VC FOR SRN
COASTAL TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL INCREASE SHOWER COVERAGE ON UPDATE AND ASSESS EVENING WIND
TRENDS WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY NEAR 15 KNOTS OR LESS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...FOR TONIGHT E/NE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15
KNOTS...THEN AS TROUGH AXIS LIFTS BACK NORTH OVER THE WATERS...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOME WITH A WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE S/SW
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4 FT
OFFSHORE.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

VOLKMER/MOSES









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