Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 281246
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
845 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN SLOWLY CHANGING TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL EAST COAST
TROUGH DEEPENS AND PUSHES ANOTHER USUAL SUMMER FRONT INTO FLORIDA
LATER TODAY.

WHILE THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING DEEP WESTERLY FLOW. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL BE HARD
PRESSED TO DEVELOP IN THE 15-20KTS OF WESTERLY FLOW THE 915MHZ
PROFILERS ARE SHOWING JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...WON`T RULE OUT IT DEVELOPING ALONG THE BARRIER ISLANDS ON
THE TREASURE COAST.

MORNING SOUNDINGS AND WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER
OF DRIER AIR IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH PWATS AROUND 1.6"-1.7" AND TEMPS ALOFT A LESS THAN IDEAL
+9/+10C AT 700 MB. DESPITE THIS THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SHOWERS
PUSHING ONTO THE WEST FLORIDA COAST ALONG SEVERAL CONVERGENCE
BANDS...SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS HAPPENED IN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THESE
WILL BE THE INITIATORS OF ACTIVITY LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THEY AND THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVE ACROSS THE
PENINSULA. HOWEVER OVERALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OT REMAIN
ISOLATED...WITH A LITTLE HIGHER COVERAGE AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND
THE TREASURE COAST WHERE THE WEST-NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW WILL PUSH
ACTIVITY IN COMBINATION WITH THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE BREEZE.

WITH LOWER RAIN COVERAGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW IT WILL BE A HOT AND
MUGGY DAY ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE MID 90S
EVERYWHERE...AND WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED A FEW UPPER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR. DRIER AIR WILL LEAD TO LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. ISOLD SHRA VCNTY KLEE AFTER 14Z AS WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
MOVES INLAND WITH A FEW TSRA VCNTY ORLANDO METRO AND KDAB AFTER 17Z.
WDLY SCT SHRA/TSRA ALONG COAST FROM KTIX SOUTHWARDS AFTER 19Z WITH
BEST COVERAGE SOUTH OF A KOBE-KVRB LINE. DUE TO LOWER
COVERAGE...HAVE KEPT TEMPO GROUPS OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW AND EVEN VCTS
IN MANY LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS
10-15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 1-2 FEET NEARSHORE AND 2-3 FEET OFFSHORE INTO
THIS EVENING....INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS WITH SEAS UP TO 4 FEET
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. LOWER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EXPECTED TODAY...BUT
ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH
OFFSHORE AND MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

FORECAST/AVIATION...MOSES
IMPACT WEATHER/RADAR...LASCODY









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