Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
FXUS62 KMLB 261901
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
301 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016
...Wet Season Dry Spell Will Continue for Many Locations in east
This Afternoon-Tonight...A 14z Canaveral sounding showed
precipitable water had fallen a few tenths from the earlier morning
one. Low level moisture had generated some morning showers along
the Treasure Coast but mixing of the drier air squelched most
showers by early afternoon. Some additional showers were occurring
with the sea breeze in Brevard/Volusia, but the activity will
propagate inland through late afternoon and evening. The HRRR
model lingers convection past 00z especially in Lake county so
will mention chance PoPs there. Drier air will filter in overnight
and clear out the skies.
Wed-Mon...(Slightly Modified Previous Discussion) The Bermuda Ridge
at the surface and aloft will dominate our weather thru the weekend.
The position of the low level ridge axis across FL peninsula will
result in a light but steady S/SE flow, enhanced by the sea breeze
each afternoon. This will favor interior counties for rain chances
each day but coverage is forecast to remain below normal due to
continued dry air entrainment. PoPs of 20 to 30 percent are forecast
for the interior on most days through Saturday, with generally less
than 20 percent along the coast. The driest day looks to be Thu when
rain chances look quite meager across all of EC FL as precipitable
water is forecast 1.1 to 1.2 inches across much of the area. Both
the 00Z GFS and ECMWF show some moistening Sun and Mon as a TUTT low
pushes west across Cuba so have drawn more seasonable 40 PoPs for
the interior and 30 PoPs coast. The sparse coverage of precipitation
will produce above normal temps in the mid 90s over the interior,
more seasonable near 90/lower 90s coast. Lows mostly in the mid 70s.
.AVIATION...Slight chance for showers/storms through late afternoon
KTIX-KDAB and into early evening KISM-KMCO-KSFB, with highest
chances through evening occurring at KLEE. Chances for afternoon
storms are low again on Wed.
Tonight-Sat...(Previous Discussion) Favorable boating conditions
this week as the Bermuda Ridge axis remains across the central FL
peninsula. Light to gentle S/SE breeze will prevail from Cape
Canaveral southward...S/SW flow north of the Cape, becoming E/SE
near the coast each aftn with the formation of the east coast sea
breeze. Seas mainly around 2 ft. Storm chances look below normal
with only isolated coverage expected as most convection will occur
and stay on land.
.Climate...Although a few locations over the interior have seen
above normal rainfall this month, July 2016 is shaping up to be one
of the warmest and driest on record in east central Florida.
Orlando, Daytona Beach and Melbourne are each currently #1 warmest
and #2 driest for the month, though there will likely be some
adjustment to these rankings by the end of the month.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 76 93 75 93 / 20 10 10 10
MCO 76 95 76 96 / 10 20 10 10
MLB 77 92 78 91 / 10 10 10 10
VRB 76 92 76 92 / 10 10 10 10
LEE 77 96 77 97 / 30 20 10 20
SFB 76 95 77 96 / 20 20 10 10
ORL 76 95 77 95 / 10 20 10 10
FPR 76 91 76 91 / 10 10 10 10