Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KMOB 060952
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
452 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD EARLY
THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY REGION. OUR FORECAST AREA STILL REMAINS ON THE BASE OF
THIS FEATURE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL
SHOWING PLENTIFUL MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. A
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE CONTINUES TO STRETCH ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF EARLY THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL ACROSS THE CWFA...WITH 4 AM CDT
READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVER MOST INLAND PORTIONS OF THE
AREA.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY...
WHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT ATTEMPTS TO BUILD FROM SOUTHEAST LA
THROUGH WESTERN AL BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE QUALITY OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE
DEPARTING TROUGH TODAY...THOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE STILL
PROGGED TO RANGE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. WE
OVERALL EXPECT MUCH LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN THE DECREASED MOISTURE AND BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT...
BUT STILL EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP
WITH REMNANT MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. WE WILL KEEP 20
PERCENT COVERAGE IN THE FORECAST GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE TODAY AND LET
LATER SHIFTS RE-ASSESS POPS BASED ON TRENDS IF NEEDED. GIVEN MLCAPE
VALUES BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG AND STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
BETWEEN 6.5-7 C/KM...ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION WILL
HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION TONIGHT...AND
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 70 INLAND TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S NEAR THE COAST.
/21

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY]...WITH LESS INFLUENCE FROM THE TROUGH AND
THE RIDGE NUDGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOW
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. LOWEST RAIN CHANCES OF THE WEEK LIKELY TO
OCCUR TOMORROW AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WORK
AGAINST CONVECTION. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM WILL LIKELY REMAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...CONFINED TO THE SEA
BREEZE.

AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN...THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN
RAMPING UP. HIGHS IN THE MID TO LOW 90S WITH HEAT INDICES
APPROACHING 100 ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL DIP
INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND AND HOVER IN THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE
BEACHES. 07/MB

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...
OVERHEAD BY THIS WEEKEND. RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD LOWER
RAIN CHANCES WITH TYPICAL SCATTERED COVERAGE EACH AFTERNOON. DIURNAL
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PERSIST AS THE RIDGE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE
AREA. HIGHS IN THE MID 90S THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND UPPER 90S NEXT
THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. HIGHER MOISTURE WILL RESULT
IN HEAT INDICES ABOVE 100 EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES
NEXT WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MUGGY WITH LOW 70S
INLAND AND UPPER 70S ACROSS THE BEACHES EACH NIGHT.

BEYOND THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER TROUGH
BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WHICH COULD BRING SOME RELIEF FROM
THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. 07/MB

&&

.AVIATION...06.12Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...SOME VERY PATCHY
MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AND LOW CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS A
FEW LOCATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT VFR IS OTHERWISE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL TODAY. ISOLATED TSRA MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH LESS AS COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS.
/21

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE
WEEK...MAINTAINING A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW
PATTERN WITH LOW SEAS OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR ISOLATED STORMS THAT DEVELOP. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  72  93  72  92 /  20  10  20  10  30
PENSACOLA   89  75  91  76  91 /  20  10  20  10  20
DESTIN      88  77  91  78  91 /  20  10  20  10  20
EVERGREEN   89  70  94  71  94 /  20  10  20  10  30
WAYNESBORO  91  71  93  71  94 /  20  10  10  10  20
CAMDEN      89  70  93  71  94 /  20  10  20  10  20
CRESTVIEW   92  70  94  71  94 /  20  10  20  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$



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