Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 100019 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
619 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION BELOW.

&&

.UPDATE...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AND AN UPDATED
FORECAST WAS SENT TO REMOVE WIND ADVISORY HEADLINES. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
CLEAR SKIES. NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH A FEW
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...DEEP UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST TX AND THE
WESTERN GULF WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. WITH THIS PATTERN NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. SURFACE TEMPS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO REBOUND
SLOWLY ON WED REACHING THE LOWER 50S FOR MOST AREAS BY WED
AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A LIGHT TO MODERATE
FREEZE FOR ALL AREAS WITH LOWS REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S FOR
MOST AREAS NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY AROUND 3 AM CST WED MORNING
CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT 8 OR 9 AM. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLEAR
OVERNIGHT WITH SUNNY SKIES ON WED.

AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE LOWER MOS NUMBERS DUE
TO THE DEEP LAYER OF COLD AIR ADVECTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION THROUGH EARLY WED AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS MOSTLY
NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE MID TO UPPER 20S FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARDS THE COAST...AND THE LOWER 30S NEAR IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...A DRY AND MILD
WEATHER PATTERN AND GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE
TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE REGION AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
NORTH ALLOWING A LIGHT ONSHORE SURFACE WINDFLOW TO DEVELOP AND HELP
TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY WARM. COLDEST NIGHT LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS WINDS ARE LIGHT AND SKIES ARE CLEAR AND STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING SHOULD KEEP MOST INTERIOR TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW THE
FREEZING MARK WHILE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ABOVE. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND NEAR 70
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...A WEAK, DRY COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. A
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW AND A COOLING TREND WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO
LOW 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. FAIR SKIES WILL HELP OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST. SUNDAYS
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S DURING THE DAY BUT
SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AS WINDFLOW TURNS MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED MONDAY...WITH THE
PROBABILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS INCREASING FROM A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO A CHANCE ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT SOUTHEAST OF I-65. /08

MARINE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD REACHING THE EASTERN GULF AND FL
PENINSULA LATE IN THE WEEK. A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN GULF WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. A MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL DEVELOP EARLY THU AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE
TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EASTWARD OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF
MS...AL AND GA THU THROUGH FRI. A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW LATE FRI THEN BUILD OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEPER SURGE OF COLDER AIR
MOVES DOWN OVER MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHERN GULF. AS A RESULT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED LATE SAT INTO SUN. 32/EE

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ630>635.

&&

$$

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