Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 270457

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1157 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


06Z issuance...VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the next
24 hours except for potential patches of MVFR conditions in fog late
tonight into early tomorrow morning. May see a few patches of light
rain develop during the day on Thursday, but coverage looks too
limited at this point to include VCSH. Light easterly winds near the
coast, calm further inland, increase to around 5 knots during mid
Thursday morning, then return to a light or calm flow Thursday
evening. /29


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 855 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas below.

UPDATE...No changes planned at the moment but will continue to
monitor. A sufficient, albeit dubious, potential remains for a
strato deck of clouds to develop overnight, which supports the cloud
cover trend in the current package along with the mention of slight
chance pops near the coast. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 622 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

00Z issuance...VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours,
although may see some patchy MVFR conditions in fog late tonight into
early Thursday morning. Southeast winds around 5 knots become calm or
nearly calm overnight, then return to a southeasterly flow near 5
knots by mid Thursday morning. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued Issued by National Weather Service New Orleans LA/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday/...

The main upper level ridge axis has shifted south and currently
extends west to east across the northern portion of the Gulf.
Westerly flow prevails and scattered to broken mostly thin upper
level clouds are apparent on satellite being driven eastward by a
shortwave trough extending through the Ark-La-Tex region. At the
surface...high pressure over the southeastern states was maintaining
east to southeasterly surface wind flow and increasing dewpoint
temperatures. These high clouds are expected to stream through the
region tonight along with some lower level cumulus (early evening)
and stratocumulus/stratus (more late night).

A stronger shortwave trough will approach and move into the region
tonight and Thursday but energy still projected to be sheared north
and south of the area. GFS continues to project the potential for
some light shower activity with this feature. Have kept slight chance
in the forecast closer to the coast and over the marine area tonight
into Thursday morning, but it will be tough to overcome the deep
layer of dry air overlying the region. Tonights lows should only fall
into the 60s near the coast and mid 50s to low 60s inland. With the
low temperatures expected to be near the surface dewpoints, some
patchy fog will be possible after midnight through about mid morning
on Thursday. Highs are expected to be warm again on Thursday,
generally in the lower to mid 80s.

SHORT TERM /Thursday night Through Saturday night/...

Thursday night through Friday night, building upper level high
pressure over the Southern PLains begins to nose east over the Lower
Mississippi river Valley, pushing the weakening upper energy well
east of the forecast area. With subsidence over the area being re-
enforced, temperatures remain well above seasonal, with highs Friday
and Saturday in the mid 80s inland to around 80 or lower 80s along
the coast. Lows Friday night in the mid to upper 50s inland to the
lower 60s along the coast.

LONG TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...

Shortwave energy moving east over the US/Canadian border flattens
the Plains upper ridge, then shifts it east, rebuilding the ridge
over the southern Atlantic seaboard. Ultimately, a surface ridge
rebuilds over northern portions of the Southeast into the Tennessee
River Valley. With upper level high pressure in control, temps remain
at well above seasonal levels through the extended. Highs generally
in the 80s, lows generally in the mid 50s to lows 60s along the


High pressure ridging southward along the Eastern Seaboard into the
Northern Gulf will generate a light to moderate windflow over the
marine area through the remainder of the week. Periods of cautionary
conditions for small craft are expected over the open Gulf waters
through Friday.




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