Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 240313 AAB
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1000 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...CURRENT PACKAGE ON TRACK...WITH ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED.FOG HAS YET TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA...BUT AM
EXPECTING DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

/16
&&

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CIGS/VISBYS EXPECTED THOUGH THE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AFTER 06Z...FOG DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AGAIN..WITH
LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND HIGH MOISTURE VALUES. VISBYS DIPPING
INTO IFR LEVELS POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE. AM EXPECTING THIS FOG TO
BEGIN TO MIX OUT SOON AFTER SUNRISE.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH THE RIDGE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA
ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST/LOWER MS VALLEY. A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE IN PLACE TONIGHT AS A SFC HIGH MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. WITH HIGHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN
ZONES...AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THE FOG COULD
BECOME DENSE IN SOME LOCATIONS. LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE AREAL
EXTENT OF DENSE FOG PRECLUDES THE ISSUANCE OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
AT THIS TIME...BUT WE DO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. LOWS DROP INTO THE LOW 50S WELL INLAND WITH UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST ON THURSDAY...WITH UPPER
70S EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE BEACHES. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TO
THE WEST WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON OUR AREA THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY AN INCREASE IN SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
OTHERWISE...A MORE PRONOUNCED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP TO KEEP
HUMIDITY VALUES HIGHER. 34/JFB

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...UPPER RIDGING BREAKS DOWN ON
ON FRIDAY AS A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS WILL SEND A TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. UPPER RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S WITH INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS AS WELL. AS THE
TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...A DEEPENING SFC LOW
WILL ALSO MOVE EAST BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING. THE ENTIRE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST OF I-65 ON MONDAY THAT WILL LIKELY SPREAD
EAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE
INCREASED EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /13

&&

.MARINE...A GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE
ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES MODERATE TO STRONG SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SEAS WILL BUILD
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE. 34/JFB


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      58  82  62  82  63 /  00  00  05  20  05
PENSACOLA   62  80  64  79  66 /  00  00  05  05  05
DESTIN      64  76  65  74  66 /  00  00  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   53  85  59  84  61 /  00  00  20  20  05
WAYNESBORO  54  84  60  83  61 /  00  00  20  20  05
CAMDEN      53  84  59  83  61 /  00  00  20  20  05
CRESTVIEW   55  85  59  84  63 /  00  00  05  20  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$











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