Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 030458 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1158 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.AVIATION...
03/06Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD EXCEPT IN AND AROUND MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH VERY ISOLATED COVERAGE. DUE TO THE ISOLATED
NATURE OF CONVECTION...CONFIDENCE STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO BRING
CONVECTION TO ANY OF OUR TAF LOCATIONS. LIGHT WEST WINDS THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY...THEN BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE MONDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO MID WEEK. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND MONDAY]...OVERALL PATTERN HAS CHANGED
LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY AND WE DONT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A WEAK SFC LOW HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF. THE CIRCULATION
IS CLEARLY NOTICEABLY IN BOTH KLH RADAR DATA AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY OVER THE APALACHEE BAY JUST SOUTH OF TALLAHASSEE. NHC HAS
GIVEN THIS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...BUT ANYTHING ALONG THOSE LINES WOULD LIKELY OCCUR ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. ATLANTIC COAST AS A DEVELOPING UPPER TROF OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD LIFTS THE SFC LOW UP TO THE NORTHEAST FROM ITS
CURRENT LOCATION. THE 12Z ECMWF APPEARS TO HAVE INITIALIZED BETTER
THAN GFS WITH SFC LOW...AND WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES NOTED BETWEEN
THE TWO MODELS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF. THE WEAK SFC LOW IS
EXPECTED TO LIKELY BE OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY...THEN WEAKEN WHILE LIFTING A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH DURING THE
DAY. A TRAILING SFC TROF LINGERS OVER THE REGION THRU MONDAY...BUT
WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS STILL IN PLACE OVER THE REGION RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER LOW...ESPECIALLY WITH THE BETTER LIFT AND
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE AREA AND SUBSIDENCE TO THE WEST OF THIS FEATURE CONTINUING.
OTHERWISE...STRENGTHENING SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN RIDGING WEST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF LATE TONIGHT THRU MONDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDFALL TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY AND BECOME PREDOMINATELY SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE END
OF THE DAY MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT VERY SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES TO
THE LOW TO MID 70S DOWN TOWARD THE COAST. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
TREND UPWARD SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY...CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
IN THE INTERIOR AND LOW TO MID 90S NEAR THE COAST. HEAT INDICES
GENERALLY CLIMB TO AROUND 100...WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS PEAKING
AROUND 105 DEGREES. 12/DS

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS CONTINUES TO BRIEFLY FLATTEN OUT THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK. IN THE WAKE OF A SURFACE LOW THAT QUICKLY EXITS THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF AND FL PANHANDLE EARLY IN THE WEEK...RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE GULF. THIS PATTERN WILL RE-ESTABLISH
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
..ALLOWING MOISTURE TO SPREAD ACROSS COASTAL AREAS ON TUESDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST ON TUESDAY
..BUT KEEPING POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR NOW.

DRIER AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION THROUGH TUESDAY. DESPITE LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS
THE THAT AREA...TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S EQUATES TO HEAT INDICES
IN THE 102-105 RANGE. 07/MB

LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS SLOWLY AMPLIFIES AND
SLIDES EAST LATE IN THE WEEK. SURFACE RIDGING BECOMES BETTER
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF...INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW BY MID WEEK.
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS...MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE ENTIRE AREA BY
MID WEEK...EVIDENT IN MODELED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7-2.0
INCHES LATE IN THE WEEK. SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY
..MORE WIDESPREAD THAN PREVIOUS DAYS BUT STILL FOCUSED ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. BY WEEKS END...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSSIBLY SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA. BUMPED UP POPS TO
THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT CURRENTLY THINKING THAT
THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONTINUE A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND...TOPPING OUT IN
THE LOW 90S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW HEAT
INDICES IN RISE INTO THE 102-105 RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...SLIGHTLY LOWER BY THE WEEKEND WITH INDICES OF 99-103.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO LOW 70S INLAND WITH UPPER 70S
ALONG THE COAST. 07/MB

MARINE...QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
WITH WEAK SFC LOW NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION...OVER APALACHEE
BAY. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH MONDAY...THEN CONTINUE UP THE EAST COAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. MEANWHILE...A BUILDING RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH LATE WEEK. WITH THIS...A LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE
DIURNAL WIND FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND WILL BECOME
MORE CONSISTENTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST FOR MOST OF THE WEEK...AND
INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO MODERATE AT TIMES (ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS). GENERALLY SMALL SEAS (2 TO 3 FEET MAX) THROUGH
FCST PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE
MARINE AREA...ESPECIALLY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY MORNING. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  96  75  96  76 /  05  10  10  20  10
PENSACOLA   77  93  77  94  77 /  05  20  20  20  20
DESTIN      83  90  79  93  79 /  10  20  20  20  20
EVERGREEN   69  97  71  98  72 /  05  05  05  10  05
WAYNESBORO  69  98  71  98  73 /  05  05  05  05  05
CAMDEN      68  97  70  98  72 /  05  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   71  98  72  97  73 /  10  20  10  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


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