Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 282158
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
358 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE A SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MEANWHILE EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL...WITH MOST LOCATIONS REPORTING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AS OF 2 PM CST.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT...
WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND BECOMES ORIENTED
FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. ANOTHER
NIGHT OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE LOWER TO MID 30S INLAND TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION
SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER ACROSS OUR
AREA. INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND
WE COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON LOWER LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOP...
ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES FOR HIGHS
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. /21

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A SHORTWAVE
MOVING FROM OVER TX TO OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEX. ALSO BEING
ADVERTISED IS A LOBE OF ENERGY SWING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
PLAINS...AROUND AN UPPER LOW SITUATED BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES AND
HUDSON BAY. IT`S THIS VORT LOBE THAT PUSHES A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE
PLAINS TO NEAR THE MISS DELTA REGION BY MONDAY MORN. THIS APPROACHING
FRONT AND THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEX WORK AGAINST
EACH OTHER...KEEPING THE ONSHORE FLOW ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THE RESULT
FOR THE FORECAST IS TEMPS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY ON)...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE VORT LOBE MOVING
ACROSS THE PLAINS DETACHES FROM THE CLOSED LOW AND HEADS
EAST...PUSHING THE FRONT MOSTLY ACROSS THE FA BY TUESDAY
MORN....WHERE IT STALLS. WITHT HE WEAK NATURE OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH
WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS SOUTH OF THE FRONT...THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN CLOSE
TO AND NORTH OF THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT WITH THE
WEAKENING DYNAMICS MOVING OFF...NO APPRECIABLE COOLER AIR MOVES OVER
THE FA WITH THE FRONT ALONG WITH THE LITTLE PRECIP EXPECTED SOUTH OF
THE FRONT. AM EXPECTING MOSTLY CLOUD SKIES WITH THE FRONT FRONT WITH
DECENT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS CONTINUE.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A PRETTY QUITE PERIOD ENSUES...WITH SOME
UPPER ENERGY MOVING FROM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISS RIVER VALLEY. THE GFS IS
ADVERTISING ANOTHER FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE FA...WHILST THE LESS
ORGANIZED ECMWF IS ADVERTISING ANY RAIN STAYING WELL NORTH OF THE FA.
AN UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BUILT UP OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEX
FLATTENS WITH THE WESTERN CONUS ENERGY MOVING EAST AND TEMPS COOL A
BIT...BUT REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...
28.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
WITH CLEAR SKIES. CALM TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. /21

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
MARINE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
EASTERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DEVELOPS FROM
THE EAST COAST TO THE GULF COAST REGION. /21


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      41  69  56  72  57 /  00  00  05  10  10
PENSACOLA   42  67  58  72  59 /  00  00  05  10  10
DESTIN      45  64  60  70  58 /  00  00  05  10  05
EVERGREEN   32  68  48  71  55 /  00  00  05  10  10
WAYNESBORO  34  68  52  71  57 /  00  00  05  10  10
CAMDEN      32  68  51  71  55 /  00  00  05  05  10
CRESTVIEW   32  68  48  72  52 /  00  00  05  10  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

21/16





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