Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 280707

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
307 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 204 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2017

Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge across the southern
U.S. into the Rockies with a trough over the lower Great Lakes and a
shortwave over southern Manitoba. This shortwave affects the area
this afternoon into this evening as it heads southeast and digs into
the lower Great Lakes on Fri while also closing off a 500 mb low.
System does not have much moisture to work with and just grazes the
western cwa this afternoon. Will keep slight chance pops along the
WI border late this afternoon and then will have dry conditions
through the rest of the forecast period. Overall, did not make too
many changes to the going forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 307 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2017

Overall, the upper-air pattern looks to remain out of the north-
northwest through next week with quiet weather expected through much
of the weekend. Better chances for precipitation don`t look like
they will arrive until late Tuesday into Wednesday as a cold front
pushes across Upper Michigan.

This weekend through the beginning of the work week as high pressure
dominates expect pleasant weather to prevail. Saturday through
Monday, high pressure will gradually drop south which will allow
winds to become westerly across the area. This will allow
downsloping winds across central Upper Michigan and temperatures to
warm through a bit each day. Saturday temperatures will generally be
in the upper 70s to low 80s; whereas by Monday high temperatures are
expected to warm into the low to uppers 80s. Saturday night looks to
be the coolest night as high pressure remains directly overhead.
Otherwise, low temperatures will fairly mild into the beginning of
next week. During the afternoon hours on Monday, as a weak surface
front slides into Upper Michigan, there is a small chance a isolated
showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder.

Tuesday a stronger cold front is progged to push south across Upper
Michigan and bring back better chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Medium range models are in fairly good agreement with
the front arriving during peak heating hours in the afternoon and
evening hours, so expect temperatures to remain in the 80s ahead of
the front. Looks like around 1500-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE should be able
to develop out ahead of this front; however, bulk shear values look
rather weak with only 20 to 25 knots. With shear being on the weaker
side of the spectrum not anticipating severe weather, but a few
storms with pulsing updrafts look likely.

Wednesday through Friday, as a cooler post frontal airmass spread
across Upper Michigan, expect seasonable temperatures to return with
afternoon highs in the 70s and overnight lows in the 50s through the
end of the work week. We could see a few lingering showers on
Wednesday as a broad shortwave digs across the area; however,
chances at this time look rather low. Otherwise, high pressure will
settle into the region once again and bring a pleasant end to the
work week.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 105 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2017

Similar to last night, patchy ground fog has developed at KIWD,
which will impact visibilities there at times through the night.
Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast. Near the
end of the forecast period, patchy fog may develop once again near
KIWD and at KSAW.

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 204 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2017

Winds will remain below 20 knots through the forecast period as
high pressure remains over the area into Tue.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


LONG TERM...Ritzman
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