Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 050301
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1101 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG
ISLAND THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK...AND
THEN LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.

OTHERWISE...AREA UNDER BROAD SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WITH A DEEPENING
FULL LATITUDE TROF ACROSS THE TN AND OH VALLEYS...AND MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING SE OF THE AREA. THIS COUPLED WITH A
COLD SFC HIGH ACROSS THE NE WILL ALLOW FOR OVERRUNNING
RAIN/DRIZZLE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH MID
LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASES OVERNIGHT...CONTINUED WEAK LIFT WILL KEEP
A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. A GRADUALLY
BACKING NE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DRYING NEAR THE SFC.
THUS...THERE IS NO MENTION OF FOG.

SMALL DIURNAL RANGES IN THIS REGIME WILL RESULT IN LOWS NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS...IN THE 40S. STAYED CLOSE TO A MODEL
CONSENSUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED INCLEMENT WITH A SLOWLY PROGRESSING UPPER TROF ACROSS
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. CLOSED UPPER LOW DIGS SE ACROSS
THE TN VALLEY THU MORNING...AND THEN TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
BY EVENING. MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
SE OF THE AREA WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENING ACROSS THE NE.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...SFC-85H...WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH AN
INVERSION. THIS COUPLED WITH WEAK LIFT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. THERE IS REALLY NO DISCERNIBLE UPPER SUPPORT
TO HONE IN ON AS FAR AS TIMING OF PCPN. GENERAL THEME IS WEAK
LARGE SCALE LIFT AND SHALLOW MOISTURE.

HIGHS WILL BE A BIT WARMER ON THU WITH THE LOW-LEVEL COLD POOL
GRADUALLY ERODING...WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. LOWS
FRI NIGHT WILL AROUND 50. STAYED CLOSE TO A MOS CONSENSUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THEN A
BRIEF RESPITE EXPECTED FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

CLOSED H5 LOW WILL MEANDER FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE DELMARVA
AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF SFC LOW PRES WILL
DEVELOP AND LIFT THROUGH THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN FALLING FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.

CLOSED LOW DEPARTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER H5 TROUGH AND SFC
COLD FRONT PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. THIS WILL TRIGGER MORE
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS THIS SYSTEM WORKS
ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION. BASED ON CONSENSUS MODEL GUIDANCE...CAN
EXPECT RAIN TO END AND CLEARING TO BUILD INTO WESTERN ZONES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. CONDS DRY OUT THROUGHOUT SUNDAY EVENING.

THEREAFTER...HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY AND MOVES
OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. TEMPS RISE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS ON
MONDAY...AND THEN SW FLOW SHOULD YIELD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON
TUESDAY.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRES LOOKS IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE AND A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL BOTH REMAIN SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THERE WILL BE SOME DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. CONDITIONS ARE
MAINLY MVFR BUT WILL TREND TO IFR WITH STRATUS FROM EAST TO WEST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. UNCERTAIN ON
WHETHER THE LOWER IFR STRATUS MOVES NORTH TOWARDS MORE INTERIOR
TERMINALS SUCH AS KTEB AND KHPN. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MVFR/VFR.

MVFR MORE LIKELY THURSDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE OFFSHORE
LOW SHIFTS FARTHER EAST AND NE WINDS INCREASE. GUSTS WILL BE
LESS TONIGHT BUT WILL BE MORE FREQUENT AND RELATIVELY HIGHER
THURSDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 20-25 KT.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH WIND FORECAST. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH
CATEGORY FORECAST MAINLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING BETWEEN MVFR
AND IFR CEILINGS...WHICH COULD BE SEVERAL HOURS OFF.

.OUTLOOK FOR 03Z FRI THROUGH MON...
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...PERIODS OF RAIN/FOG/LOW
CLOUDS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. NE WINDS G15-20 KT FRI.
.SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD FINALLY
BRING AN END TO DISMAL CONDITIONS...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO
VFR AND NW WINDS G20KT.
.MON...VFR. W WINDS G25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE WILL BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS DUE
TO MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
WATERS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

SWELLS ON THE OCEAN WILL LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND...KEEPING SEAS ON THE OCEAN AT OR ABOVE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF 25-30 KT WIND GUSTS IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS SFC LOW PRES PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS.

CONDS FINALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA LEVELS EARLY IN THE NEW WEEK AS HIGH
PRES BUILDS SOUTH OF THE OCEAN WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
POTENTIAL FOR A QUARTER TO HALF INCH THIS EVENING ACROSS LI/SRN
CT. OTHERWISE...VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH
MOST LOCATIONS FORECAST TO RECEIVE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

1/4 TO 1/2" QPF POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES
EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE HIGHEST SPRING TIDE OF THE YEAR IS APPROACHING WITH THE NEW MOON
ON FRIDAY. THE THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL INCREASE
DURING THE EVENING HIGH TIDES THROUGH FRIDAY...AND LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND.

PERIODIC NE FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE WEEK AS A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE WAVES TRACKS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THESE WAVES WILL PREDICATE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING...BUT THE THREAT IS THERE PARTICULARLY FOR THE
SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND/QUEENS.

TIDES WILL PEAK AT MINOR LEVELS ACROSS COASTAL FAIRFIELD AND
COASTAL WESTCHESTER BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

WATER LEVELS MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH MINOR COASTAL FLOOD LEVELS IN A FEW
WESTERN LI SOUTH SHORE BAY LOCALES WITH THU MORNING AND FRI
MORNING HIGH TIDES.

FOR THURSDAY EVENINGS HIGH TIDE...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE
AROUND 1/4-1/2 FT HIGHER THAN THIS EVENING...WHILE TIDAL
DEPARTURES SHOULD REMAIN AROUND THE SAME LEVELS AS THIS EVENING.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING ACROSS THE VULNERABLE LOCALES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS
OF WESTERN LI/NYC AND WESTERN LI SOUND AND NY/NJ HARBOR. AN
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
THE MOST VULNERABLE SOUTH SHORE BAY LOCALES OF WESTERN GREAT SOUTH
BAY TO HIT MODERATE FLOOD THRESHOLDS THU EVE...BUT THIS IS A LOW
PROB AT THIS TIME. MINOR FLOOD LEVELS WILL BE APPROACHED AND
POSSIBLY LOCALLY TOUCHED ACROSS THE REMAINING EASTERN COASTAL
AREAS.

FOR FRIDAY EVE HIGH TIDES...WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AS ASTRO TIDES PEAK AND SURGE LIKELY REMAINS
STEADY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IN
VULNERABLE SOUTH SHORE BAYS LOCALES OF WESTERN LI AND QUEENS AT
THAT TIME WITH ONLY 1 TO 1 1/4 FT SURGE NEEDED IN SPOTS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR CTZ009.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR CTZ009-010.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ071.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     THURSDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ071-078-177.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 10 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ074-075-178-179.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 10 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/DW
NEAR TERM...FEB/NV/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...FEB/MPS/NV/DW
HYDROLOGY...MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV



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