Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 251810
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
210 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THE HIGH THEN MOVES FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS
LATE WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY SUNNY WITH OCNL
MID AND HIGH CIRRUS FROM TIME TO TIME.

HIGHS WILL TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG AND WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S MOST ELSEWHERE. AREAS
ALONG THE COAST WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THAT DUE TO
THE ONSHORE FLOW.

THERE IS A MDT RISK FOR RIPS ON THE OCEANFRONT TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
DRY TNGT WITH SW FLOW CONTINUING. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN LLVL
MOISTURE AT THE COASTS...THE WIND SHOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE SREF HAS LOW PROBS FOR EVEN VSBY BLW 3SM...SO
AS A RESULT HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY FOG IN THE FCST ATTM. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION THRU THE
PERIOD. THE GFS SUGGESTS SOME CONVECTIVE INITIATION TUE AFTN
ACROSS THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA. HIGHER INSTABILITY WITH SOME
INCREASED LLVL MOISTURE...HOWEVER THE SEA BREEZE FLOW SHOULD ARC
NWD THRU MOST OF THE AREA STABILIZING THE AREA BY LATE AFTN. THE
NAM APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD DEPICTION OF THIS SHARP CAPE GRADIENT.
IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE A LACK OF A TRIGGER WITH GENERAL WEAK
SUBSIDENCE. MAINTAINED THE LOW TSTM CHCS IN THE FCST FOR THE WRN
AND INTERIOR AREAS...BUT IF FUTURE MESOSCALE MODEL DATA FOLLOWS
THE NAM...POPS ACROSS ALL AREAS E OF THE HUDSON COULD BE TRIMMED
OFF. EXPECTING THE INCREASED MOISTURE AFTER THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW TO LIMIT TEMPS A BIT MORE AT THE CT AND LI COASTS...SO USED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH SEEMED TO DEPICT THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SUMMERTIME PATTERN IN PLACE THIS TIME FRAME. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
EAST COAST WILL GIVE WAY TO WEAK TROUGH/SHORTWAVE AS IT TRAVERSES
EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. IN TIME...RIDGE WILL
REESTABLISH ITSELF LATE IN THE WEEK AS JET RETREATS NORTHWARD.

THE JET EVENTUALLY SAGS SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
TRACKS ACROSS CANADA...RESULTING IN LOWERING HEIGHTS AND MORE OF A
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

AT THE SURFACE...BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE WITH PERSISTENT SW
FLOW ACROSS THE EAST COAST. A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHES THURSDAY...WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH/COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO APPROACH LATE SATURDAY OR NEXT
SUNDAY. TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED...WITH OPERATIONAL GFS MUCH
QUICKER TRACKING THE FRONT EAST WHEN COMPARED TO OPERATIONAL RUN OF
THE ECMWF AND GGEM. OPERATIONAL GFS QUICKER THAN MANY OF IT/S
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL. LATEST WPC FORECASTS PROG THE FRONT CLOSER
TO ECMWF SOLUTION.

TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL PER WPC NUMBERS AND LATEST MEX NUMBERS. TEMPS SETTLE
BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL SUNDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/TSTMS WED WITH
HIGHEST POPS NW OF NYC. POSSIBLE HIGHER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WED
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH/WEAKENING UPPER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES. MAINLY DRY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...EXCEPT POSSIBLE
SHOWER/TSTM NW OF NYC. BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH THE
FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND/OR SUNDAY.

WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RISING DEW POINTS DUE TO THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW...THERE WILL BE THE INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING AT NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING MID TO LATE
IN THE WEEK. MAY BE MORE OF A STRATUS DECK ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
POSSIBLY COASTAL CONNECTICUT WITH THE FLOW MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THAN
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRES REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

S-SW WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 20-28KT. WINDS
DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WIND SPEED BEFORE 19Z MIGHT BE ONLY 10-14KT.
A GUST OR TWO UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE FROM 21-23Z. WINDS AT 750-1000
FT AGL COULD BE NEAR 40KT FROM APPROX 22Z-04Z. END TIME OF
FREQUENT GUSTS THIS EVENING COULD BE 1-2 HOURS OFF.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: A GUST OR TWO UP TO 30KT POSSIBLE FROM
21-23Z...BUT NOT PROBABLE. END TIME OF FREQUENT GUSTS THIS
EVENING COULD BE 1-2 HOURS OFF.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY PROBABLY REMAINS JUST
EAST OF THE TERMINAL FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. CHANCE THAT WINDS
SHIFT 180-200 TRUE NEAR 01-02Z WITH THE SEA BREEZE. END TIME OF
FREQUENT GUSTS THIS EVENING COULD BE 1-2 HOURS OFF.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SHIFT BACK TO SW COULD BE OFF BY
1-2 HOURS. SEA BREEZE MAY SHIFT WINDS BACK TO 160-180 TRUE AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BETTER CHANCES WOULD BE NEAR 23-01Z.
END TIME OF FREQUENT GUSTS LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING COULD BE 1-2
HOURS OFF.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS COULD FAVOR 140-170 TRUE THROUGH 21Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MIGHT BE ONLY OCCASIONAL THIS
AFTN/EVE. A GUST OR TWO UP 27-30KT POSSIBLE FROM APPROX 21-00Z.
WINDS AT 750-1000 FT AGL COULD BE NEAR 40KT FROM APPROX 22Z-04Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE PM...LOW CHC SHRA/TSTM NW OF CITY TERMINALS. G20-25KT.
.WED...CHC AM MVFR OR LOWER IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG. LOW CHC PM
SHRA/TSTM. G.25KT.
.THU-SAT...CHC AM MVFR OR LOWER IN STRATUS AND/OR FOG. CHC
SHRA/TSTM. G.20-25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...WITH
SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN...SOUTH SHORE BAYS...AND NY HARBOR FOR WIND
GUSTS TO 25 KT. WINDS MAY FALL BLW 25KT SOONER PARTICULARLY THE
BAYS AND WRN OCEAN. SEAS REMAIN CLOSE TO 5 FT ON TUE...SO THE SCA
WAS EXTENDED THRU THE DAY ON THE OCEAN. THERE IS A CHC THAT A SCA
MAY BE NEEDED ON THE S SHORE BAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR SHINNECOCK...AS
THE SLY FLOW RAMPS UP AGAIN LATE IN THE AFTN.

A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BE CLOSE TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
NEARSHORE WIND GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY COULD APPROACH
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AS WELL.

ROUGH SEAS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO PERSISTENTLY GUSTY SW
FLOW. AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE WATERS AND A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO BELOW
5 FT THURSDAY. SUB SMALL CRAFT SEAS REMAIN INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE WATERS.

FOG WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY MID WEEK AND INTO LATE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIXED DOWN DEWPOINTS FROM H85 THEN BLENDED IN SOME NAMDNG TO
ACCOUNT FOR CSTL INFLUENCE FOR TODAY. THIS YIELDS MIN RH
GENERALLY IN THE 30S. SOME UPR 20S POSSIBLE NERN NJ AND UP THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. KBDI IS BLW
CRITERIA HOWEVER SO NO RED FLAG PRODUCTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ338.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ345.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/PW
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MPS
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC/PW



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