Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY
FXUS61 KOKX 190534
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1234 AM EST Thu Jan 19 2017
Weak high pressure will build from the west into Thursday, and
settle overhead Thursday night into early Friday. A weakening
frontal system will approach Friday night into Saturday, and then
dissipate. Deepening low pressure will approach from the southwest
from Sunday into Monday while a gradually strengthening high
builds into the Canadian Maritimes. The low will continue to
approach Monday night into Tuesday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Some fog has developed across the NW interior with potential for
some locally dense fog as well. Have issued an SPS for Orange,
Putnam, and northern Fairfield counties to address this as well as
for some freezing drizzle/mist as temperatures are near freezing.
If temperatures fall closer to freezing further east in CT or fog
expands, may need to expand the SPS.
Otherwise...a northern stream shortwave passes to the east
tonight. There were some very light echoes on radar associated
with this shortwave, but they have largely dissipated. It should
remain cloudy through the early morning hours with patchy fog.
Temperatures have fallen close to freezing across the NW interior,
with the rest of the region in the middle and upper 30s. Lows will
range from the lower 30s inland to the mid-upper 30s elsewhere.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
With the low pressure moving farther offshore and high pressure
building in, flow will gradually turn more northwesterly advecting
drier air into the area and allowing the stratus to finally
erode. Sunny conditions are expected by late morning, with subtle
downslope flow aiding in temperatures rising into the mid 40s to
lower 50s, around 10 degrees above climatological normals. Apart
from any light drizzle in the morning, the remainder of the day
should be dry.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low pressure system will move northeastward into the Great Lakes
region on Friday, pushing a weakening frontal system across the area
Friday night into early Saturday. Precipitation amounts will be
light with this system. High temperatures Friday will be in the low
to mid 40s. Lows Friday night will be in the mid to upper 30s.
A weak boundary will remain overhead for Saturday, but ridging
overhead should allow for dry conditions across most areas through
the weekend. Temperatures on Saturday will be in the upper 40s to
lower 50s and mid to upper 40s on Sunday. Lows Saturday and Sunday
night will generally be in the mid to upper 30s.
A stronger frontal system approaches late Sunday into early next
week. At this time it does look like this system will bring to the
area a soaking rain Sunday into Monday. There is the potential of 1
to 2 inches of rainfall with this system from Sunday afternoon into
Monday night. The low will slowly pull away from the area by
the middle of next week.
Temperatures Monday through the middle of the week will remain above
.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure builds in from the west.
MVFR/VFR improves to all VFR towards daybreak for the city
terminals. Outside of the city, varying flight categories, but
eventually improving to all VFR by late morning Thursday. N-NW
winds under 10 kt tonight. By Thursday afternoon, VFR with NW
winds under 10 KT.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.Friday night...Chance of MVFR or lower in -RA.
.Sunday...Chance of MVFR of lower in -RA, with best chance at
CT/Long Island Terminals.
.Monday...Chance of IFR with heavy rain and strong E-NE winds.
Minor changes were made with this update to reflect the latest
trends in observations and guidance. The forecast appears on
Wind gusts have fallen below 25 kt, therefore have converted the
SCA on the coastal ocean waters to an SCA for Hazardous Seas.
Seas should remain at 5-6 ft in at least part of each coastal
water zone into Thursday, before subsiding to below 5 ft
throughout during Thursday evening. A relatively relaxed pressure
gradient over the waters should keep winds to 10 kt or less,
except 15 kt or less early in the forecast period overnight.
Below small craft advisory conditions Friday through early Sunday.
Saturday. Small craft advisory conditions are possible on the ocean
waters Sunday afternoon, and for all waters on Monday, with the
approach of the next storm. Gales may be possible on the ocean
Monday afternoon/evening, and ocean seas could reach 6-11 ft Sunday
night into early next week as an easterly fetch sets up.
No significant precipitation is expected through Saturday night.
As a frontal system moves slowly across the hydrologic service area
Sunday into the middle of next week it could bring a significant
rainfall of one to two inches. There is the potential for some minor
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 PM EST this
evening for ANZ350-353-355.