Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 290526
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
126 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVERHEAD TONIGHT...PROVIDING ANOTHER NIGHT OF
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CT...AND
FOR THE PINE BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND.

CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS
TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS SFC TEMPS FALL CLOSE TO THE SFC
DEWPOINT.

USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD
BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S IN/AROUND NYC...AND IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S MOST ELSEWHERE. LOWS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
PINE BARRENS WILL DROP TO NEAR 50 IN SOME SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...AND RETURN
FLOW SETS UP IN THE AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP
UP AS SFC DEWPOINTS RISE FROM THE 50S DURING THE DAY TO THE LOW TO
MID 60S SATURDAY NIGHT.

SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION DURING
THE DAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SOME AFTERNOON MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS THAT WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE
INCREASES OVER THE REGION.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPS IN/AROUND NYC. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO
THE 60S.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN BEACHES ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH REGARD TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE BUILDING HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE NEXT WEEK.
SUBTLE DETAILS OBVIOUSLY HARD TO PIN POINT...BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN
WOULD SUGGEST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS...BUILDING
HUMIDITY AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS.

INITIAL WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVELS PASSES OFFSHORE MONDAY...WITH
WEAK SFC FRONT/TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING THE DAY. LATEST GFS THEN
INDICATES BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THURSDAY. SHORTWAVE RIDING OVER
THE RIDGE THURSDAY FLATTENS THIS RIDGE SOMEWHAT...BUT LOOKS TO
BUILD RIGHT BACK FRIDAY. ECMWF INDICATES A WEAK UPPER LOW MAY GET
CUT OFF UNDER THE RIDGE...BUT THIS LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO
THE LOCAL WEATHER.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CANADIAN/NH...MODEL CONSENSUS POINT TO THE
RIDGE LIKELY SUPPRESSES TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA WELL TO THE SOUTH
NEXT WEEK...BUT PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
PRODUCTS FOR LATEST FORECAST AND TRACK INFORMATION.

ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK WILL TRANSLATE TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FOR THE MOST PART DRY CONDITIONS.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DURING THE PEAK
HEATING OF THE DAY ACROSS THE HILLS NORTH AND WEST OF NYC.
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME...ESPECIALLY WITHOUT A DEEP LIFTING MECHANISM TO BREAK THE CAP.

HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S NEAR
THE COAST TO AROUND 90 INLAND...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO 70. THIS IS
ABOVE NORMAL BY ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING...THEN
BUILDS OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND EARLY THIS MORNING. THE WIND BECOMES
WNW TO SW AROUND 5 KT AFTER SUNRISE. SEA BREEZES DEVELOP LATE
MORNING SOUTH SHORES OF LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT AND THEN MOVES
INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TIMING OF WIND SHIFT IN TAFS MAY BE
OFF BY +/- AND HOUR.

WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT FOR OUTLYING TERMINALS
AND SW AROUND 5 KT ACROSS NY METRO TERMINALS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY....VFR. MIDDAY THROUGH AFTERNOON
SEABREEZES AT COASTAL TERMINALS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVERHEAD. FOR THE WESTERN NY BIGHT AND THE ENTRANCE TO NY
HARBOR...ENHANCED SEABREEZE COULD RESULT IN GUSTS TO 20 KT SAT
AFTERNOON. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT...WHILE SEAS ON
THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS WILL GENERALLY BE 1 FT OR LESS.

A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. AS SUCH...STILL EXPECT MAINLY SUB-
SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH FULL MOON APPROACHING ON SATURDAY...BRIEF MINOR INUNDATION
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ACROSS THE TYPICALLY
VULNERABLE COASTAL LOCALES THIS WEEKEND INTO THE START OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/PW
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...MPS/PW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



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