Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 251816
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
116 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TRI-STATE ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT STALLS OUT
WELL TO THE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WELL...PANCAKE STRATO-CU HAS FILLED A LOT MORE THAN EXPECTED. THE
SUN WAS NICE WHILE IT LASTED. NARRE-TL HAD NO CLUE ON THESE CLOUDS
AS SEEN IN RAP AND HRRR SOUNDINGS UNDER ESTIMATING SATURATION AT
THE BASE OF THE INVERSION. EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO MIX OUT WITH LOSS
OF SURFACE HEATING STARTING IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS LAYER IS
THIN.

TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALL OFF FROM HERE INTO LATE AFTERNOON.

WINDS GUSTS TO 30-40 MPH CONTINUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
GUSTY WINDS LAST INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN FAIRLY RAPIDLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN TONIGHT...WITH ITS AXIS
BUILDING OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY...THEN SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP
THINGS DRY FROM THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH MINIMAL CLOUD
COVER THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF ECS/MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-950 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY...WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO
BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED...WITH
VALUES AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOR HIGHS SATURDAY A
BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX
DOWN FROM 975 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WAS USED. HIGHS SHOULD BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/EKD/ECM/ECE/WPC
GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS USED FOR LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH EXCEPTION OF 24/12Z CMC GPDS - MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE IDEA THAT THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
THE AREA SUNDAY...ENDS UP STALLING OUT TO FAR TO THE SOUTH. LOW
PRESSURE PASSING ALONG THE FRONT HAVE LITTLE, IF ANY, IMPACT ON
THE AREA. TWO POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS ARE WITH THE INITIAL WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON TUESDAY.

FOR NOW...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FIRST WAVE. FOR NOW IT APPEARS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ONLY RAIN IN THIS TIME FRAME.

THE REGION REMAINS IN BETWEEN A CLOSED UPPER LOW TO THE N AND
RIDGING OFF THE FL COAST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
BETWEEN THE TWO DETERMINING THE EXACT TRACK/STRENGTH OF WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE STALLED COLD FRONT. FOR NOW APPEARS
STRONGEST SHORTWAVE WILL PASS ON TUESDAY...SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...OTHERWISE HAVE
GONE DRY OVER LAND MONDAY- TUESDAY NIGHT. LIKELY WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH IN THE LOWEST LAYERS TO SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW...EXCEPT FOR
MAYBE AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FOR NOW THOUGH ANY PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...AS THE AREA SHOULD BE IN THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH NORTHERN STREAM RIDGING PASSING OVER
THE AREA.

FOR TEMPERATURES SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY A BLEND OF
MEX/MEN/EKD/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED. AFTER ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY WITH VFR AND A STRONG SURFACE WESTERLY
FLOW GUSTING UP TO 35 KT AT NYC METRO UNTIL ABOUT 21Z. BKN-45-050
CIGS SHOULD SCATTER BY ABOUT 21Z AS WELL. WINDS AND GUSTS SHOULD
THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE WIND FCST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE WIND FCST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE WIND FCST.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE WIND FCST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE WIND FCST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: MAY SEE AN OCCASIONAL WIND GUST HIGHER
THAN FCST THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRI-SAT...VFR.
.SUNDAY...MVFR WITH CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN.
.MON...VFR.
.TUE...LOW CONFIDENCE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING...WINDS NOW GUSTING TO GALE FORCE ON LAND IN THE NYC
AREA AND THIS WILL MOVE OUT OVER ALL WATERS BY NOON.

THIS EVENING...WINDS LOWER TO SCA LEVEL QUICKLY THIS EVENING...TAPERING
OFF TO BELOW SCA LEVELS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
FROM SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...BC/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT






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