Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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FXUS65 KPSR 221643
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
942 AM MST FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION TODAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE SLIGHT...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS FROM
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ARIZONA. DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL THEN TAKE OVER
THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY/REGIONAL UPPER AIR PLOTS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHWEST ARIZONA THIS MORNING...
WITH THE UPPER JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND PRODUCING A
PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS
STREAKING ACROSS SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THE TROUGH WILL
SWING THROUGH ARIZONA INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY...WITH A GOOD
PORTION OF OUR CWA STAYING DRY...BUT WITH CONTINUED BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS.

MOISTURE IS STILL QUITE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE K1Y7/YUMA 12Z
SOUNDING SHOWING ONLY 0.55IN OF PRECIPITABLE WATER...AND SURFACE
DEW POINTS ARE MIRRORING THIS DEARTH OF MOISTURE...OBS GENERALLY
TRENDING IN THE 30S OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND IN THE 40S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. THE INHERITED POP/WX FORECAST GRIDS
LOOK TO BE ON TRACK WITH THE OBS AND MODEL TRENDS...AS THERE IS ONLY
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...FOCUSING FROM JTNP EASTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN MARICOPA
COUNTY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE LOW CENTER WILL REACH INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES SATURDAY WITH INCREASINGLY SUBSIDENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
TAKING OVER ACROSS OUR REGION. THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL HOWEVER
STILL REMAIN SPREAD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST KEEPING RELATIVELY
COOL AIR IN PLACE. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL IMPROVE OVER FRIDAY/S MIDDLE
70S TO LOWER 80S...BUT ONLY BY A COUPLE DEGREES. A COMPACT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS THEN SHOWN TO QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...ONLY SINGLE DIGITS POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO GET A BOOST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT WE
WILL STILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES SHY OF NORMAL.

NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE MORE ON THE QUIET SIDE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER SYSTEMS ON THE HORIZON. QUASI-ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING UPPER HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
REACH NEAR NORMALS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND POSSIBLY NEARING
100 DEGREES IN A FEW LOWER DESERT SPOTS FOR NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MOHAVE DESERT TODAY. MAIN
AVIATION WEATHER IMPACT ACROSS THE PHOENIX METRO AREA WILL BE A
CONTINUATION OF THE BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
5-10 KT CROSSWINDS AT KPHX. WINDS WILL VEER THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE
WILL ALSO RESULT IN FEW-SCT STRATOCU THOUGH BASES WILL LIKELY REMAIN
ABOVE 6K FT.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CA...MAINLY AT KIPL
WHERE GUSTS WILL LIKELY REACH 30-35 KT THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ALSO IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM KBLH NORTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT AS WINDS SUBSIDE
AFTER SUNSET.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SEVERAL WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DISTRICT
NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER DRY WEATHER WILL STILL PREVAIL. A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL ALSO GRACE THE REGION BRINGING TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL NORMAL. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
LIGHT FOLLOWING TYPICAL DAILY PATTERNS LEADING TO MINIMAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MEYERS/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...MO


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