Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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FXUS65 KPSR 301239
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
538 AM MST SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...TO AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LOWER HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND. SLIGHT COOLING IS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN ARIZONA NEXT
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
NO WEATHER PROBLEMS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. THE ONLY FORECAST CHALLENGE
ARE HIGH TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODEL FORECASTS THE PAST FEW DAYS
HAVE WANTED TO COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
BY A FEW DEGREES...HOWEVER WE THINK HIGHER ATMOSPHERIC THICKNESS AND
WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES FUNDAMENTALLY SHOULD RESULT IN
LITTLE CHANGE. THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
CA AND SOUTHWEST AZ REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SLIGHT CHANGES ARE FORECAST THIS PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE IN EASTERN ARIZONA WHERE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT
VARYING AMOUNTS OF MEXICAN MOISTURE TO PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
INCLUDING PARTS OF OUR ZONE 24 IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE TAF
PERIOD AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS TO
FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL HEADINGS WITH SPEEDS AOB 12 KTS. THE ONE
EXCEPTION COULD BE KBLH...WHERE STRONG SOUTHERLY MIDDAY WINDS COULD
GUST TO 20KTS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUBSEQUENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN
TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...GRADUALLY NUDGING UP MORNING
DEWPOINT READINGS WHILE HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES MORE TOWARDS
NORMAL READINGS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. VERY LIMITED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND FAR
EASTERN AZ HIGHER TERRAIN BY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SLIGHT CHANCES ENTER
THE FORECAST FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY BY FRIDAY. WHILE MOISTURE AT THIS TIME IS NOT PLENTIFUL OVER
THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS...GUSTY STORM OUTFLOWS WIND MAY MOVE OFF
FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCALES. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED
DOWN INTO THE TEENS OVER THE AFTERNOONS WITH FAIR TO GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BY THE LATE WEEK...DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING AZZ020-021-025-026 10 AM MST UNTIL 8 PM
     MST TODAY.

CA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CAZ031>033 10 AM PDT UNTIL 8 PM PDT
     TODAY.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE













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