Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 161102
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
602 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

.AVIATION [Through 12Z Sunday]...

VFR conditions expected through the period with BKN to OVC CIGs
generally AOA 10k ft. Northerly winds will gradually become NE/ENE
by daybreak, with speeds generally remaining AOB 10 kts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [216 AM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Zonal flow aloft will give way to deep layer shortwave ridging
today, as the upper low currently centered over the Gulf of
California gets kicked eastward today by a kicker trough currently
digging southward off of the central/southern California coast. The
area of high pressure at the surface located to the west will slide
eastward through the day in response to the aforementioned system
being pushed eastward, which will be critical in priming the
atmosphere for shower and isolated thunderstorm chances late weekend
into next week. As for today`s forecast, dry conditions are expected
with continued cloudy conditions, as mid and upper level subtropical
moisture will continue to stream over the area ahead of the
approaching upper low. As a result, afternoon high temperatures will
be similar to yesterday, with low to mid 60s across the Florida
Panhandle/extreme southern Georgia, and upper 50s elsewhere.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]...

Surface high pressure will be centered across the Carolinas to
start this period with a weakening shortwave trough moving
northeast across west Texas. This latter feature quickly moves
northeastward as a mid level ridge moves westward across the
Bahamas. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop across
east Texas and the ArkLaTex region Sunday morning then slowly work
eastward Sunday afternoon. At the same time, strong WAA will
commence with dewpoints surging some 20 degrees between Saturday
night through Sunday night and a resultant warming trend through
the weekend. By Sunday night, isentropic upglide will lead to
shower and thunderstorm chances increasing, especially across the
western half (Apalachicola to Albany westward) and northern half
(southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia).


.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

Periods of unsettled weather will continue into the extended
forecast. WAA with associated showers and isolated thunderstorms
will continue on the western periphery of low/mid ridging through
Tuesday. On Wednesday, vorticity consolidates across the Texas Big
Bend and races eastward while deamplifying and supporting a
surface frontal system that moves across the area Wednesday into
Wednesday night. Thursday appears dry but will carry slight chance
PoPs until models get in better agreement. Another front appears
to be on tap for Friday night and Saturday. Overrunning rain
becomes widespread across Texas/Louisiana which will spread
across the southeast US Friday night and Saturday.


.MARINE...

Moderate winds and seas will be the norm this weekend with high
pressure dominating. Conditions become a little more unsettled
next week with the approach of a cold front. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms are possible Sunday night through much of the
upcoming work week.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry conditions will prevail today, with Min RHs in the low 30s. It
appears as if transport winds will be strong enough to keep
dispersions from being critically low this afternoon. Expect a
moistening trend to begin tonight, with periods of wetting rains
beginning across the area Sunday through much of next week.
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected as a result.


.HYDROLOGY...

The next chance for rainfall will begin Sunday night and last
through much of the next work week. Periods of rainfall and
isolated thunderstorms are possible with average rainfall amounts
of 1-3 inches. The heaviest of these amounts will be along and
north of a Panama City to Albany line with lower amounts south of
this area. Given the recent dry conditions, widespread flooding is
not expected.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   64  43  71  59  75 /   0   0  10  30  20
Panama City   61  50  71  63  74 /   0   0  20  50  20
Dothan        57  42  70  60  73 /   0   0  20  60  40
Albany        58  39  70  57  72 /   0   0  10  50  40
Valdosta      61  41  71  57  75 /   0   0  10  20  30
Cross City    66  44  75  57  77 /   0   0  10  10  10
Apalachicola  62  51  70  62  74 /   0   0  20  40  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Pullin
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM...Scholl
AVIATION...Pullin
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Pullin
HYDROLOGY...Scholl


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