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000
FXUS62 KTAE 110725
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
325 AM EDT Tue Mar 11 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
An upper low spinning over the Texas Gulf coast this morning will
move east across the northern Gulf through the day today,
positioning its axis across central Mississippi by early this
evening. As the low moves east, weak surface cyclogenesis will
take place in the northern Gulf resulting in some form of low
level trough/low pressure area moving east with the upper low.
Clouds will increase and lower from west to east through the
afternoon today, with scattered showers beginning along the coast
around mid afternoon. Showers will likely remain rather light to
start, increasing in coverage and intensity late in the afternoon
as the more organized deep layer forcing reaches the panhandle
coast. A few rumbles of thunder will be possible late this
afternoon along the coast, though most thunderstorm activity will
remain offshore with no severe weather anticipated.

Still expect a rather warm afternoon today, with slightly cooler
temperatures to the south and west where cloud cover will fill in
earlier. The current forecast features lower 80s across much of
southern Georgia and the Suwannee Valley, while middle and upper 70s
are anticipated across Alabama and the Florida Panhandle.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...
Weakening upper trough will cross the area overnight, with
moisture increasing quickly in the deep southerly flow ahead of
the impulse. Modest upper divergence will support a broad area of
rain across the forecast area tonight, with best rain chances over
the western zones. Expect coverage to diminish with time tonight
as the impulse and its associated forcing continues to weaken.
Weak instability over the coastal waters and coastal counties will
support isolated thunderstorms tonight. However, severe storms are
not anticipated.

Deep layer moisture will diminish Wednesday morning as the upper
system is absorbed in the developing larger scale trough. However,
a few additional showers will be possible through the day as the
front associated with the northern stream trough crosses the area.

Much cooler air will pour into the region in the wake of the
front. H85 temperatures are forcast to drop from the lower teens
tonight to the lower single digits Wednesday night. Lows Wednesday
night will range from the mid 30s in the northwest to the lower
40s along the coast. Highs on Thursday will struggle to get out of
the upper 50s.

.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...
Strong cold air advection will occur behind the cold front
Thursday night, but there will be enough wind to prevent a freeze.
Highs on Thursday will only be around 60- which is about 10 deg
below average, despite sunny skies. Although 500 mb heights will
be rapidly rising Thursday and Thursday night, the coldest
temperatures of this cold snap will likely be Friday morning as a
surface ridge settles over our area. Lows may reach freezing in
our normally colder inland sites. At the very least, frost appears
likely. Temperatures will slowly return to near average over the
weekend. The GFS and ECMWF indicate an unsettled weekend and early
next week, with a frontal system in the area and moist southwest
flow aloft. Thus our PoP (in the 30-40% range) will be above
average.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Wednesday] MVFR to IFR visibilities are still
anticipated this morning, though will likely start a few hours
later than previously anticipated due to a scattered to broken
cirrus deck. Visibility restrictions should clear out within a
couple hours of sunrise, returning all sites to VFR. Late this
afternoon, high-end MVFR ceilings will spread across the area from
southwest to northeast, with all sites MVFR by midnight. As the
rain clears from west to east overnight, expect low-end MVFR to
IFR ceilings to spread in behind.

&&

.Marine...
Light onshore flow will increase by late in the day as a trough
of low pressure approaches the waters. Exercise caution conditions
are possible overnight ahead of a strong cold front. The front
will cross the waters on Wednesday with strong northwesterly flow
in its wake. Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely from
Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. Winds will drop below
headline levels during the day on Thursday into Friday.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Relative humidity values will remain above critical thresholds
through Wednesday with soaking rains expected tonight into
Wednesday morning. On Thursday, drier air will overspread the
region, possibly leading to critical RH durations across parts of
north Florida. Thereafter, RH values will climb to above critical
levels, precluding any hazardous fire weather conditions.

&&

.Hydrology...
The Choctawhatchee River at Bruce peaked in action stage and will
continue to fall over the next two days. Likewise, the Ochlockonee
River at Thomasville has peaked at action and will continue to
fall through the week, with its increased output causing the
downstream sites at Concord and Havana to rise to action stage
today and tomorrow respectively, gradually falling back to normal
flow later in the week. Tuesday night we will see some light
rainfall totaling 0.5" or less across the area, which is not
expected to cause any of the rivers, even the ones at action
stage, to rise to flood stage.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   77  61  76  42  60 /  30  70  40  10   0
Panama City   67  61  69  42  59 /  60  80  30  10   0
Dothan        78  60  72  37  59 /  30  80  30   0   0
Albany        80  60  75  37  58 /  20  80  40  10   0
Valdosta      82  60  78  39  59 /  20  60  50  10   0
Cross City    77  61  74  42  61 /  20  60  60  10   0
Apalachicola  68  62  69  42  58 /  50  70  30  10   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...MOORE