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000
FXUS62 KTAE 010742
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
342 AM EDT Fri Aug 1 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Rain chances will begin their increase to climatological means as
we finally begin to modify the dry airmass that has been in place
the majority of this week. Highest rain chances will be on the NE
periphery of our CWA. A passing H5 shortwave moving east along an
Eastern CONUS trof will aid in the development of showers and
thunderstorms NE of a line from Valdosta to Albany. The PoP field
reflects this with a 20-40% SW-NE gradient. These PoP numbers are
slightly higher than the CAM guidance, but this is in line with the
CAM performance yesterday in extreme NE regions of the CWA.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...

A combination of upper level support from an eastern U.S.
mid/upper trough will combine with a weak front, and disturbed
seabreeze circulations to yield near, to slightly above average
rain chances through the weekend. Afternoon highs will be near
average (lower 90s) each afternoon, with overnight lows in the
lower 70s.


.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

The aforementioned positive-tilt 500 mb trough will continue to
stretch from TN to the Northwest Gulf of Mexico, bringing moist
southwest flow aloft over our forecast area through Tuesday. This,
along with aforementioned remnant frontal system across our
region will contribute to above-climo rain chances (50-60% PoPs).
By Wednesday and Thursday, however, a deep layer ridge will build
across the Gulf of Mexico and Gulf Coast, reducing (somewhat) the
deep layer moisture and synoptic scale forcing. This will mark a
return to a more typical late summertime pattern, with near-climo
PoPs (30-40%) and thunderstorms driven primarily by the sea/land
breeze circulation and other mesoscale boundaries. Temperatures
will be near climatology, with highs in the lower to mid 90s and
lows in the 70s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Saturday]

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period but
there is a chance of VCTS at ABY, and VLD late this afternoon.
There are no major cig/vis concerns but any terminals that receive
TS could briefly drop down to MVFR/IFR.

&&

.Marine...

Low wind and sea conditions will prevail for the next several days
under a weak surface pressure pattern.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Summerlike conditions and increasing rain chances will result in no
fire weather concerns over the next few days.

&&

.Hydrology...

With our area rivers below bank full stage and seasonable rainfall
totals in the forecast, no flooding is expected through the next
week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   95  71  93  72  92 /  20  10  50  20  50
Panama City   89  75  89  75  88 /  20  10  40  30  40
Dothan        91  71  91  71  90 /  20  20  40  20  60
Albany        92  71  91  72  90 /  40  30  40  20  50
Valdosta      95  70  95  71  95 /  30  30  50  30  60
Cross City    93  69  93  71  92 /  20  10  30  30  40
Apalachicola  88  72  88  74  89 /  10  10  30  30  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD/DOBBS
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...GOULD/DOBBS
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD/DOBBS
HYDROLOGY...MOORE