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000
FXUS62 KTAE 231850
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
250 PM EDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed this afternoon
along and ahead of the sea breeze over the panhandle and western
Big Bend. The diurnally driven convection will dissipate shortly
after sunset yielding to party cloudy skies and patchy fog
overnight. Lows will once again be around 70 degrees.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...
The large scale period commences aloft with dissipating cutoff
low to our west, however remnants become increasingly absorbed by
Nrn stream trough Thurs and deepening into full latitude trough
over SE states thru the period. At surface, Mid-South cold front
drops Swd, albeit with limited moisture, to Srn AL/GA by end of
period shunting Ern ridge progressively SEWD into Atlc. All this
results in strengthening deep layer WSW flow with PWATs hovering
around 1.9 inches. Expect 30-50% POP gradient, S-N on Thurs and W-E
on Fri focused across east half of CWA and in aftn. With increased
dynamics, steeper lapse rates and higher dew points, strong storms
with ample lightning and gusty winds are possible each day and we
cant discount isold pulse severe with damaging winds and locally
heavy rain especially with seabreeze/boundary clashes. High temps
will reach the low to mid 90s, a little higher on Thurs with heat
indices from 90 to 103 highest Thursday and east.

.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
The region will be dominated by a typical summer pattern through
Sunday. As a result, expect isolated afternoon/evening rain and
thunderstorms. Monday an upper level trough moves in and increases
afternoon/evening precip chances. A stationary boundary is expected
to linger over the area Tuesday and Wednesday bringing increased
rain chances in the Big Bend Region. In addition to the increased
rain chance expect abundant cloud cover. It will be slightly cooler
and less humid Tuesday and Wednesday...particularly in the Alabama
and Georgia counties.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Thursday] Developing convection may briefly impact the
TLH and DHN terminals this afternoon. Then, a period of MVFR vsbys
can be expected in the pre-dawn hours at DHN, ABY and VLD.

&&

.Marine...
Winds will generally be from the southwest around 10 KT through this
weekend, except for an increase to 10 to 15 KT near the coast during
the late afternoon and evening hours from strong daytime heating.
Significant wave heights will be mainly 2 ft or less.

&&

.Fire Weather...
No fire weather concerns.

&&

.Hydrology...
River flooding will not be a concern with all area rivers below
flood stage and high rainfall amounts not expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   73  93  74  93  73 /  10  30  20  30  20
Panama City   76  88  77  88  77 /  10  30  20  30  20
Dothan        72  92  73  93  73 /  10  50  20  30  20
Albany        73  93  74  93  73 /  10  50  30  30  20
Valdosta      71  95  73  93  73 /  10  30  20  50  40
Cross City    72  92  72  92  73 /  10  30  20  40  20
Apalachicola  77  88  78  88  78 /  10  30  20  30  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...BLOCK
LONG TERM...MCDERMOTT
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...BLOCK
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...WESTON