Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 210028
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
828 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

The east coast seabreeze is a little more potent than initially
expected, so have increased PoPs in the FL Big Bend this evening.
After these storms move offshore into Apalachee Bay, however, we
expect dry and warm conditions.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [736 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...
An upper low over the Gulf of Mexico will continue tracking west
away from the region through the short term period. Another weak
trough off the Florida East Coast will also track west beneath a
ridge of high pressure over the Carolinas. This approaching trough
will increase cloud cover on Monday along with the chance for
afternoon showers and thunderstorms. With this disturbance nearby
on Tuesday, expect a similar distribution of rain chances in the
afternoon with PoPs around 40 percent. High temperatures both days
will generally be in the lower 90s.


.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]...
The long term period will start with the region between an
approaching tropical wave off the Florida East Coast and a
steadily steepening Eastern CONUS trough extending down into the
Mid South. Initially, rain chances on Wednesday and Thursday will
be near normal for late August, but as the trough amplifies and
drops further south, rain chances will increase by Friday as a
weak frontal boundary drops into the region from the north. There
are some models that support bringing this frontal boundary down
to the Florida border, allowing some drier air to enter South
Georgia. Whether the front makes it that far south or not, no
model has the boundary clearing the forecast area, which suggests
at minimum a potentially wet pattern. Thus, rain chances from
Friday through the end of the period are above climatology.

High temperatures early in the period will be in the lower 90s,
and then drop into the upper 80s to near 90 with all the
anticipated storms and cloud cover.


.AVIATION [Through 00Z Tuesday]...

Scattered storms along the north FL and east coast seabreeze
currently near ECP, TLH, and VLD are expected to dissipate over
the next two hours. VFR conditions are expected overnight at most
TAF sites, with the exception of VLD where a few hours of MVFR-IFR
vsbys will be possible around sunrise once again. Then in the
afternoon, scattered thunderstorms will develop across north FL
and spread inland.


.MARINE...
Generally light winds and low seas are expected through the next
several days.


.FIRE WEATHER...
Outside of marginally low dispersions across the Big Bend of Florida
this afternoon, hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected
through the next week.


.HYDROLOGY...
Rain chances will return to normal this week, suggesting that at
least some localized heavy rainfall will be possible with the
strongest storms. However, there are no widespread flood concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   75  91  75  93  75 /  40  40  10  40  10
Panama City   79  89  77  90  78 /  10  40  10  40  10
Dothan        75  92  74  93  74 /   0  50  10  40  10
Albany        75  92  74  93  75 /  10  30  10  40  10
Valdosta      74  90  73  94  73 /  30  30  10  40  10
Cross City    74  91  74  94  74 /  40  30  10  20  10
Apalachicola  78  89  77  90  76 /  20  30  20  30  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Moore
SHORT TERM...Godsey
LONG TERM...Godsey
AVIATION...Moore
MARINE...Godsey
FIRE WEATHER...Moore
HYDROLOGY...Godsey


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