Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS62 KTAE 261053

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
653 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.AVIATION [Through 12Z Monday]...

VFR conditions are expected today. Showers will develop this
afternoon and possibly a few thunderstorms. Fog will develop late
tonight. IFR and possibly LIFR conditions are expected at TLH, DHN
and ECP. ABY and VLD may be in the MVFR range. Winds will be



.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

In the upper levels the trough will move out this morning allowing a
ridge to build in from the south. At the surface a low pressure
system parked over Illinois will slowly drift northeast. The
associated cold front will remain well to our northwest and
southerly flow will continue. A few showers may linger this morning
as the trough exits the region. Showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms will develop this afternoon as daytime heating
provides instability to a moist environment. POPs are in the 30 to
50 percent range this afternoon. Clouds will begin to clear out late
this afternoon (earlier in the afternoon for most Florida counties).
Highs will be near 80 inland.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

Mid level shortwave ridging located across the southeast CONUS
tonight will shift eastward Monday in response to a shortwave
trough moving across the central/southern Plains. This trough will
weaken as it shifts northeastward with the southern extent of the
trough dampening out. Surface high pressure ridge across the area
will hold intact through the period despite the influence of the
trough. A weak cold front moves into central Mississippi/Alabama
by the end of the period, but with the surface ridge and mid level
ridging building across the area, the front will slow down and
remain north of our southeast Alabama/southwest Georgia counties
Tuesday. Only isolated showers and maybe a thunderstorm is
anticipated this period, favoring our Alabama/Georgia counties
closer to the passing trough and approaching cold front. Florida
counties will remain largely dry this period.

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

The front from the short term does appear to sag into our
Alabama/Georgia counties providing a focus for isolated showers
Tuesday night and Wednesday before lifting northward away from the
area. Thursday appears dry and in between systems as a stronger
system takes shape to our west. This system will make a run at us
Thursday night and Friday. There is good agreement between the GFS
and ECMWF regarding timing but off some on amounts. Raised PoPs a
little Thursday night and Friday based on consistency and
agreement in the model solutions. This system exits to the east
Friday night with ridging building in and dry weather expected
next weekend.


Favorable marine conditions are expected through much of the
upcoming work week featuring light to moderate southerly winds and
seas decreasing to 1 to 3 feet beginning Monday. The next major
storm system arrives Friday which will increase the winds and seas
to atleast cautionary levels.


RH values will stay above Red Flag criteria for the next several
days. Rain chances will increase this afternoon, mainly inland.


No significant rainfall is expected through Thursday so no
flooding concerns are anticipated.

The next major storm system will arrive late work week. There is
a decent chance for rainfall across all of the area. The system
appears to move through quick enough so not much flooding concerns
with that system as well at this time.



Tallahassee   80  57  83  58  82 /  20   0  10  10  10
Panama City   74  62  75  64  76 /  20   0  10  10  10
Dothan        80  60  82  61  81 /  30   0  20  20  20
Albany        81  60  84  61  83 /  40  20  20  20  20
Valdosta      81  58  84  58  84 /  40  20  20  10  10
Cross City    81  58  82  57  82 /  20  10  20  10  10
Apalachicola  74  61  77  62  77 /  10   0  10  10  10



FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-South Walton.




NEAR TERM...McDermott
LONG TERM...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...Scholl is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.