Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 262022
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
322 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Cloudiness associated with the wrap around moisture from the
departing low pressure system mainly across our southeast AL and GA
zones will dissipate or move out. The breezy northwest winds that we
are experiencing this afternoon will diminish this evening. This
will allow min temps to drop into the mid 30s by daybreak.


.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
The high amplitude long wave trough will gradually slide east of
the area during this period with nearly zonal flow in place by
12Z Thursday. Surface high pressure will remain in control of our
weather. Yet another cold front will sweep across the region on
Tuesday, but this should be a dry front. Temps will be close to
seasonal levels Tuesday and just a couple of degrees below normal
Tuesday night through Wednesday night.


.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...
A northern stream trough will pass well north of the region late in
the week with an upper ridge building east toward the area by the
weekend. Another trough will then push into the eastern U.S. early
next week. At the surface, the next cold front will cross the
forecast area Thursday night into Friday morning with PoPs in the
slight to low chance range (20-30%). The next system in the pipeline
looks to be a bit more energetic with a front passing west to east
across the forecast area from late Sunday into Monday. PoPs are in
the chance category for now, but will likely increase once our
confidence in the timing of this system becomes more focused.
Daytime highs will be very close to seasonal levels through this
period with overnight lows above normal.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Tuesday] MVFR cigs at the northern terminals will lift
to VFR by 22Z and prevail through the rest of the period. Gusty
winds are expected during the day at all terminals, with winds dying
down after sunset.

&&

.Marine...
Winds will decrease overnight as the gradient weakens. Conditions
will drop below advisory thresholds across the nearshore legs by
around midnight. Seas will remain elevated offshore and the advisory
will be extended there until Wednesday morning as there will be
another brief increase in winds with the passage of a cold front
Tuesday night. Winds and seas will then remain below headline
criteria from Wednesday through the end of the week despite yet
another cold frontal passage on Friday.

&&

.Fire Weather...
A drier airmass will continue to filter into the region over the
next few days. However, humidity values are forecast to remain above
critical values at least through the middle of the week. With strong
transport winds, dispersion values will be high on Tuesday.

&&

.Hydrology...
The Aucilla River at Lamont will reach minor flood stage Tuesday
evening and will rise to 54.1 feet on Wednesday. River levels
continue to rise in the Ochlockonee and Withlacoochee basins which
may reach minor flood stage later in the week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   36  64  37  60  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   40  62  40  57  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        37  60  36  57  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        35  59  34  56  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      38  61  36  57  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    37  64  36  59  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  42  64  41  59  41 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Tuesday for Coastal
     Bay-Coastal Gulf.

     Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning for Coastal Gulf-
     South Walton.

GA...None.

AL...None.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for Apalachee Bay-
     Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL
     out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton
     Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to
     Destin FL out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...WESTON






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