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000
FXUS62 KTAE 090219
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
919 PM EST Sun Dec 8 2013


.NEAR TERM [Tonight]...

Through the night, the upper level pattern will remain similar to
the past several days. A large trough practically covers the
entire country, with the exception of an increasingly west to east
oriented ridge centered over the western Atlantic, stretching
across south/central Florida into the Gulf.

A 23z subjective analysis places a stationary boundary now west of
our forecast area, from near Montgomery southwest through Mobile
and on into the Gulf. As of 23z a backdoor cold front could still
be analyzed as moving (though very slowly) through our northeastern
Georgia counties. Currently it is positioned from just north of
Valdosta, draped northwest through Fort Gaines. Though it had been
moving slowly through the day, expect the forward progress to halt
overnight as low level winds weaken.

Behind the backdoor front, the nearly saturated low levels
are capped by much drier air above 800mb. This is, and will
continue to favor the solid low cloud deck along and behind the
front. Where winds become light, the low clouds will likely settle
in as fog.

South of the aforementioned frontal system, remains an
unseasonably warm and juicy airmass. Based on recent satellite
trends and hi-res model runs, have added a chance for rain across
primarily north Florida overnight associated with a southerly punch
of isentropic ascent along the 295-300K surfaces. Although fog is
certainly expected area-wide tonight, expect it to be a little
less dense and a little less widespread in areas with increasing
cloud cover and light showers later tonight.

Because of all of the aforementioned components involved in
tonight`s weather, the chance for widespread, truly dense, fog
appears to be lower than the past couple of nights. Have decided
to hold off on any advisories for the time being.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

The surface front will make a slow progression through the
forecast area early this week, making it into southeast Alabama
again Monday before stalling out Monday night. As another
shortwave trough propagates through the main upper level trough,
the front is forecast to finally push through the rest of the area
Tuesday and Tuesday night. Rain chances Monday and Monday night
will remain highest for our northwest zones and head eastward
Tuesday, lowering Tuesday night. The break will be brief however,
with both the GFS and Euro showing some northward regression of
the system, returning it once again as a warm front on Wednesday.

Temperatures on the warm side of the front will remain unseasonably
(possibly once again record breaking) warm, with highs in the low
80s again on Monday, upper 70s to around 80 on Tuesday. The front
will reach southeast Alabama fairly late Monday, so the highs will
still be in the upper 70s, and warm for December. By Tuesday
however, temperatures behind the front will be noticeably cooler,
with highs in the 60s. Lows will be in the 60s on Monday night and
in the mid 40s to mid 50s Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM [Wednesday through Sunday]...

The surface cold front that passes through Tuesday and Tuesday night
will make some northward regression Wednesday, increasing rain
chances once again during the day, then exiting Wednesday night.
Despite the return as a warm front, temperatures Wednesday will stay
generally in the 60s with the heavy cloud cover and rain
anticipated. Once it passes Wednesday night, temperatures will begin
dipping into the 40s as the colder, drier air makes its way here.

Thursday and Friday will be cooler and drier with highs ranging from
the upper 50s to upper 60s Thursday, dipping into the mid 30s to
mid 40s overnight. Friday, highs will be in the 60s and lows will be
in the low 40s to around 50. The dry break should end Saturday
however, as another shortwave trough propagates through the upper
level flow and aids in surface cyclogenesis over south TX on
Thursday. This system will move eastward late this week,
increasing our rain chances to 40-50% Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION [Beginning 02Z Monday]...

IFR CIGS have already developed at ABY/VLD to start period and
should develop shortly at TLH and DHN Expect some sites falling
below local landing minimums with CIGS to drop into LIFR cat after
midnight followed by widespread dense fog after 03z. Both will
last until late morning Monday at all terminals. Cigs will slowly
climb to MVFR levels by late morning then VFR by early afternoon,
initially VBYS then CIGS for rest of the period.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds will generally stay below 15 knots through Tuesday. As the
front makes eastward progress Tuesday night and high pressure
moves in behind it, winds and waves will begin building to
cautionary levels Tuesday night through Wednesday, possibly
reaching advisory levels Wednesday night through Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dispersion values may exceed 75 Monday afternoon. Otherwise, no
fire weather concerns are expected through Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Despite chances of rain through most of the week, particularly for
our northwestern zones, rainfall amounts will be low enough that
no significant rises in river heights are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   65  81  63  76  53 / 30  20  20  40  30
Panama City   69  75  66  70  52 / 30  30  20  40  20
Dothan        62  77  61  65  46 / 10  40  40  50  20
Albany        58  78  63  69  47 / 10  30  30  50  20
Valdosta      64  83  63  78  52 / 20  20  20  50  30
Cross City    69  81  59  80  56 / 20  10  10  20  30
Apalachicola  67  76  66  74  56 / 30  30  20  40  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Harrigan
SHORT TERM...Moore
LONG TERM...Moore
AVIATION...Block
MARINE...Moore/Harrigan
FIRE WEATHER...Fournier
HYDROLOGY...Moore