892
FXUS62 KTAE 141856
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
256 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 214 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

With daytime heating in full swing, temperatures are ramping up
quickly this afternoon. Expect heat indexes to be in the 105-110
range for most areas. Thus, a heat advisory remains in effect
through 8PM this evening for our Florida and southern most Georgia
counties. Afternoon convection will provide some relief to the heat,
but currently is expected to be concentrated east of the
Apalachicola and Flint rivers, as well as starting a bit later
today. There is enough instability with moderate DCAPE to expect
some gusty strong to possibly severe storms to linger a bit into
this evening.

For tonight, conditions will remain quite muggy with overnight lows
in the mid 70s for most inland locations and upper 70s to near 80
along the coast.

Another hot day expected tomorrow, though expanded coverage of
afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity may keep us out of Heat
Advisory territory. That said, an under performing day or a
downtrend in expected coverage will likely lead to another Head
Advisory being issued.

&&

.SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 214 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Main attention turns to the tropics through the middle of the week
as a weak area of low pressure, currently off the east coast of
Florida, moves west across the state and likely into the eastern
Gulf by Wednesday morning. Future guidance has remained fairly
weak with this system but there were notable spreads in the
guidance from a very weak system meandering across the state and
into north Florida/Apalachee Bay to a weak system moving across
central Florida and into the eastern Gulf. The main steering
features for this system will be a large upper level ridge across
the southeast US. This will largely drive whatever feature
develops west and northwest into the latter part of the week. The
good thing for much of northern Florida and the northeast Gulf is
that the southern solutions are more likely to stay south of the
area thanks to the upper level steering flow out of the east and
mostly away from the area. If weaknesses in the ridge allow any
remnants or a surface low to exit the west coast of Florida
further north, it is more likely to encounter land and remain a
more disorganized system. We`ll continue to monitor the system and
provide updates but for now, we`re likely to see increasing rain
chances on Wednesday and Thursday and possibly some breezy
conditions depending on the evolution of this system.

While the exact sensible weather for us largely depends on where
this feature goes, more southern tracks would place our region on
the wetter side of the system so we`ll likely see elevated rain
chances continuing into the late week and potentially weekend.

For now the National Hurricane Center has 48 hour genesis
probabilities around 20% and 7 day probabilities around 30%.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 126 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Currently VFR conditions are prevailing under light winds. SHRA/TSRA
will be possible this afternoon and evening mainly near KTLH,
KABY, and KVLD. Another round of afternoon convection is expected
tomorrow, though an earlier start and a bit wider coverage is
expected. Outside of TSRA influence, VFR conditions are expected
to continue.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 214 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Light to moderate northwesterly winds today become more northerly to
northeasterly during the day Tuesday as a trough of low pressure
moves into the Gulf. Moderate to fresh winds develop Tuesday night
into Wednesday and lingers over the northeastern Gulf through at
least Thursday. The trough has a low chance, or 30 percent chance,
of tropical development as it moves over the northeastern Gulf,
making the forecast more subject to change. Should development of
this storm occur more quickly, mariners should at least be advised
that marine conditions could begin to degrade on
Wednesday/Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 214 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

A seasonably moist and unstable air mass will be in place for the
next several days with daily chances of showers and
thunderstorms. Fire weather concerns are expected to be minimal
outside of gusty and erratic winds near thunderstorms along with
lightning and pockets of heavy rain

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 214 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected again today
and Tuesday. The highest concentration is forecast along the
seabreeze and other leftover mesoscale boundaries. Some storms will
produce locally heavy rain that could lead to isolated instances of
flash flooding, especially in areas with poor drainage.

A trough/weak area of low pressure will move across the Florida
Peninsula and into the eastern Gulf sometime Tuesday into
Wednesday. Moisture from this system starts to ramp up from east
to west in our area on Tuesday and is expected to linger through
at least Thursday and potentially into the weekend. This could
better organize rain into training bands of showers and storms,
especially near the coast; this would further increase concern for
flash flooding Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the
office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   76  95  75  90 /  30  80  40  90
Panama City   79  96  76  90 /  20  70  60  90
Dothan        76  98  75  93 /  10  50  30  80
Albany        75  96  74  93 /  30  60  20  70
Valdosta      74  96  74  93 /  40  70  30  80
Cross City    73  94  72  90 /  60  80  60  90
Apalachicola  79  90  76  87 /  30  70  80  90

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326-
     426.

GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ155>161.

AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Humphreys
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...Humphreys
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs/Reese