Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 230700
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
300 AM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

The remnants of Cindy will be passing well to the west and north of
the area today. Upper level ridging will build in from the east for
today, providing partly cloudy skies by this afternoon with only
isolated to scattered convection expected across the area (20-30%
PoPs). High temperatures are expected to reach the lower 90s across
most of the area, and with muggy dewpoints in the low to mid 70s
still in place across the area, heat index values are expected to
peak near 100 degrees this afternoon.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday]...

The remnants of Cindy will get caught up in the trough and a band
of moisture will stretch across the southeast. The greatest area
of moisture will be just to our north, so the highest PoPs will be
in the northern half of the CWA. PoPs 40-60% will be limited to SW
GA and SE AL on Saturday and coverage will be more widespread on
Sunday. Highs will be in the upper 80s and low 90s with lows in
the low 70s.


.LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

There are still some differences in the models with the
approaching front. The GFS is the drier solution and has the
front arriving Monday while the ECMWF is a bit slower. The ECMWF
is a much wetter solution with moisture sticking around for
several days. PoPs will be 20-40% each day. Highs will be in the
upper 80s with lows in the upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Saturday]... Mainly MVFR ceilings are
expected to spread inland from the coast through the early morning
hours with patchy IFR conditions possible. By mid-morning, most
terminals are expected to be low end VFR under a scattered to
broken cloud deck.

&&

.MARINE...

Conditions will continue to improve over the next few days. By
Saturday winds will decrease to around 10 knots with seas around 2
feet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Rainfall associated with TS Cindy has come to an end with generally
4 to 6 inches of rain across portions of SE Alabama and the Florida
Panhandle with lesser values further east into South Central Georgia
and the Florida Big Bend.

Some of the faster responding rivers in the Panhandle, like the
Shoal River are cresting this afternoon just below flood stage.
Modest rises continue in the Pea/Chochtawhatchee Basin in SE Alabama
and expect rises to just below flood stage further down the basin
into the Florida Panhandle into early next week as water from
Southern Alabama arrives.

In South Georgia and the Florida Big Bend, only small rises have
occurred and are continuing with nearly all locations remaining
below flood stage. Only exception is the Sopchoppy River where
heavier rains fell in the coastal basin of this river. The river
crested about 2 feet below flood stage Thursday evening.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   91  73  92  73  89 /  20  10  10  10  40
Panama City   87  76  86  75  85 /  20  10  10  20  40
Dothan        91  73  90  72  85 /  20  10  50  50  40
Albany        92  73  91  73  87 /  30  10  40  50  40
Valdosta      92  72  92  73  89 /  30  10  10  10  40
Cross City    91  72  91  73  90 /  10  10  10  10  30
Apalachicola  87  75  87  75  86 /  10  10  10  10  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     High Surf Advisory until 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Weston
LONG TERM...Weston
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Weston
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Godsey



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