Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 030757
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
357 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
.Near Term [Through Today]...
Weak surface low has moved inland over the southeastern Big Bend
this morning and is expected to continue to move steadily northeast
through the day. Best rain chances for today will be over the far
eastern zones, associated with the surface low and its trailing band
of deep layer moisture. However, risk of flooding rain has
diminished so will drop the remaining Flash Flood Watch.
Elsewhere, a drier low level airmass will filter into the region
today in the wake of the surface low. Expect dewpoints to drop into
the upper 60s to near 70s by this afternoon for much of the region.
This will limit the potential for afternoon thunderstorms,
especially across SW Georgia into SE Alabama. The limited cloud
cover will allow for hot temperatures to return, with upper 90s
returning for this afternoon.
.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...
With the surface low continuing to move further northeast of the
region overnight, expect only scattered storms across the
Southeast Florida Big Bend tonight. By Tuesday, the subtropical
ridge will begin to build back westward across the Florida
Peninsula and into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. This pattern will
allow for mainly scattered afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms through Wednesday. Temperatures will be on the
warmer side during the short term period with highs mainly in the
mid 90s inland, with a few spots possibly in the upper 90s,
particularly across Southern Alabama and Southwest Georgia.
.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...
Model guidance shows the next storm system moving into the
Tennessee Valley on Friday and a cold front approaching the
region by Saturday. As this frontal boundary stalls just north of
the region through the weekend, it will be a focus for increasing
chances of showers and thunderstorms from Saturday through the end
of the period. High temperatures late in the long term period
will drop back into the lower 90s as convection increases.
[Through 06Z Tuesday] IFR cigs will impact KVLD, KABY, and possible
KTLH through mid to late morning. Thereafter, VFR conditions are
foreast to prevail with limited chances for afternoon
Advisory level winds and seas will continue over the eastern legs
through this morning when the gradient will begin to relax.
Thereafter, high pressure building back over the Eastern Gulf will
result in low winds and seas through the next few days.
A drier low-level airmass will allow RH values to drop into the
lower 30s across SE Alabama and SW Georgia. However, no Red Flag
conditions are anticipated.
With the threat for heavy rain coming to an end, focus for the
next couple of days will be remaining river flooding in the
Southeast Florida Big Bend. The Steinhatchee River is in the
process of cresting at the gage just north of US-19 around 15.6
feet. The river will remain above flood stage through Tuesday.
Elsewhere, no river flooding is expected. Areal flooding across
Dixie County will gradually subside over the next couple of days.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 96 75 96 75 94 / 40 20 40 20 40
Panama City 90 77 90 78 89 / 20 20 30 20 30
Dothan 98 72 97 74 96 / 20 10 20 10 20
Albany 97 72 97 74 95 / 20 10 20 10 20
Valdosta 94 74 95 76 96 / 30 20 40 20 40
Cross City 89 76 91 76 91 / 40 30 50 20 40
Apalachicola 91 80 90 79 89 / 30 20 30 20 30
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 AM EDT this morning FOR
Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20
NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to