Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 291918
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
218 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY)... MAIN NORTHERN STREAM U/L FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO OVERRIDE A WEST COAST RIDGE...RUNNING ACROSS WESTERN
CANADA THEN DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A S/W
DISTURBANCE WILL DIG ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT MOVING OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY. OUT WEST...SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL CUTOFF OVER THE BAJA CA REGION.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT.  MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CREATE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND COMBINED WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN L/L
MOISTURE...WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT MAINLY
OVER THE INTERIOR AND ACROSS THE NATURE COAST.  A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH NORTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ON FRIDAY.  DRY AIR ALOFT IS HOLDING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...AND COMBINED WITH THE FACT THAT U/L SUPPORT WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED
WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.  TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR
CLIMATIC NORMALS.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...
A COLD FRONT IS EXITING THE PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON
SATURDAY...PRODUCING A DRY FLORIDA WINTER DAY. A NEW SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY AND MOISTURE
BEGINS TO RETURN OVER FLORIDA. AS THE SYSTEM DIGS EAST AND
SOUTH...IT WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS...AND MAYBE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODEL GUIDANCE
DIVERGES A BIT ON TUESDAY WITH THE ECMWF STALLING THE BOUNDARY
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA WHILE THE GFS TAKES IT A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH. ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPS FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRINGS THE BOUNDARY BACK NORTH RETURNING THE AREA INTO THE WARM
SECTOR ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ON
THURSDAY.

FOR THE FORECAST...PREFERRED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AS EVEN THE MOST
DRASTIC CONTRASTS BETWEEN MAJOR GLOBAL GUIDANCE WAS MINIMAL.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD FORECAST THOUGH TIMING
TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE WILL BE IMPORTANT TO MONITOR. DID NOT INCLUDE
ANY MENTIONS OF THUNDER FOR NOW AS IT IS STILL HARD TO PINPOINT
TIMING OF THE BEST SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREDOMINATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.  PATCHY FOG
WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH LCL MVFR VSBYS VCNTY ALL
TERMINALS...AND POCKETS OF IFR VSBYS. FOG IS MOST LIKELY TO IMPACT
LAL AND PGD BETWEEN 08-13Z.  INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS AT ALL
TERMINALS ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
WITH LIGHT WINDS.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON
FRIDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH WINDS LESS THAN
15 KNOTS AND SEAS LESS THAN 4 FEET.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK OVER THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS EACH DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  68  53  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  73  52  73  51 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  70  50  71  46 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  68  52  69  48 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  68  42  70  38 /   0   0  10   0
SPG  67  57  69  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
LONG TERM...02/GARCIA
DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA






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