Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 081939
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
239 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

...DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY...
...HIGH SURF AND HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY AND TUESDAY)...
A MONSTROUS TROUGH HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S...WITH LARGE SCALE RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST. SEVERAL PIECES
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...BRINGING
INCESSANT REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD CONTINENTAL AIR.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...A POWERFUL FRONT WILL SURGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
INTENSE WINDS OVER THE MARINE ZONES. GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE WATERS...WITH WAVES AS HIGH AS 15 TO 17 FEET OFFSHORE.
SPOTTY SHOWERS MAY OCCUR WITH THE FRONT...BUT DUE TO THE VERY
LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE...ANY RAIN WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
EASTWARD...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP INLAND...AND COOLER AIR
WILL MOVE IN. WHILE LOWS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 40S...WIND
CHILLS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WILL BE COMMON.

CONDITIONS WILL STAY BREEZY INTO TUESDAY...AS ANOTHER FAST MOVING
FRONT CROSSES THE PENINSULA. WITH CONTINUING COLD
ADVECTION...EXPECT HIGHS WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE 50S
TUESDAY...FALLING OFF QUICKLY TOWARD TUESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. STARTS OUT
THE PERIOD. A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND
REINFORCES THE COLD AIR OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES MODERATE
TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY...BUT ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
SATURDAY BRINGING MORE COLD AIR AND GUSTY WINDS. THE CENTER OF
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BATCH OF COLD AIR WAS
NORTH OF ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON...WILL MOVE INTO MN FRIDAY
NIGHT...THEN INTO THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY. THE GFS MOS HAS SUNDAY
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S NORTH OF BROOKSVILLE AND 60S TO THE
SOUTH. IT ALSO HAS HIGHS REBOUNDING TO NORMAL ON MONDAY. FEEL
SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO BE COLDER THAN MOS CLIMATOLOGY IS PULLING THE
NUMBERS UP.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SPOTTY SHOWERS
MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT...BUT IMPACTS TO
VSBYS ARE NOT EXPECTED...AND CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE TERMINAL BEING
AFFECTED IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
STRONG AND GUSTY NW WINDS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
COME DOWN A BIT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BUT EXPECT TO STAY
GUSTY.

&&

.MARINE...
VERY DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FROM THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...AS GALE FORCE WINDS OVERSPREAD THE WATERS
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS
WILL BE LIKELY...WITH GUSTS OVER 40 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE.
THIS WILL GENERATE SEAS ON THE ORDER OF 12 TO 17 FEET. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS THROUGH TUESDAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS A SERIES OF FRONTS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING
WAVES OF STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS. WHILE WINDS SHOULD
GENERALLY WEAKEN WEDNESDAY MORNING...WAVES WILL REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONDITIONS SHOULD FINALLY IMPROVE BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION.
ANOTHER STRONG FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED WINDS AND SEAS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE PENINSULA THROUGH
THIS WEEK...USHERING IN ROUNDS OF COOL DRY AIR. WHILE HUMIDITIES
MAY FALL INTO THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE A FEW
AFTERNOONS...TEMPERATURES AND ERC VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY
LOW...PREVENTING ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM
MATERIALIZING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  50  58  44  58 /  20  10  10  10
FMY  55  64  48  62 /  20  10  10  10
GIF  46  58  41  60 /  20  10  10   0
SRQ  54  60  48  61 /  20  20  10  10
BKV  44  56  38  56 /  20  10  10  10
SPG  52  58  48  59 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     SARASOTA.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-
     COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR INLAND LEVY.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TUESDAY TO 1 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON
     SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60
     NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-
     TAMPA BAY WATERS.

     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-
     TAMPA BAY WATERS-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT
     20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 1 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...84/AUSTIN
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...72/NOAH


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