Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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622
FXUS62 KTBW 041443
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1043 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
DUE TO THE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE NWS OFFICE THIS MORNING...NO
UPPER AIR SOUNDING WAS AVAILABLE HOWEVER FORECAST MODELS SHOW PWAT
VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES INDICATIVE OF AN EXTREMELY MOIST AIRMASS FOR
EARLY MAY. GIVEN THIS MOIST ENVIRONMENT THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS AS SOME
LOCATIONS NAMELY ACROSS NORTHERN HERNANDO AND CENTRAL MANATEE HAVE
ALREADY SEEN 3-4+ INCHES OF RAIN. WE ALSO HAD A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THE 45-55 MPH RANGE
ALONG WITH MANY REPORTS OF DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES.

AS FAR AS THE REST OF THE DAY IS CONCERNED...THE FRONT HAS ALREADY
PUSHED THROUGH THE NW PART OF THE STATE AS SURFACE OBS SHOW N/NW
WINDS AND DECREASING DEWPOINTS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ITSELF APPEARS
TO BE ALONG THE SUWANEE RIVER BASIN ALONG THE LEVY/DIXIE COUNTY
LINE. IT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY BUT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF
IT. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL PUSHING THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH NOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HELPING TO
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT. WILL MAINTAIN 100 POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT WILL MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO
TIMING BEST ON LATEST FORECAST THINKING. ALSO RAISED QPF IN A FEW
SPOTS WHERE TRAINING PRECIP HAS BEEN OBSERVED.

THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS IS STILL THERE
HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS OUR AREA HAS BEEN WORKED OVER QUITE A
BIT ALREADY. BETTER STRONG / SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXIST
THIS AFTN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA GIVEN LESS CLOUD COVER AND MORE
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSTMS CONTINUE FROM AROUND PGD NORTH THROUGH THE FL
BIG BEND. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY
THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTN ACROSS THE BAY AREA AND UNTIL THE
EVENING HOURS DOWN SOUTH. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH
ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT APPROACH TERMINALS. .

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE COASTAL
WATERS TODAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS AND SEAS
WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS TONIGHT...AND
WILL APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS THEN
LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE WATERS. NO
MAJOR CHANGES MADE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  67  78  61 / 100  10  10   0
FMY  82  68  84  61 / 100  50  10  10
GIF  79  63  78  57 / 100  20  10   0
SRQ  79  69  80  61 / 100  20  10   0
BKV  80  61  77  51 / 100  10  10   0
SPG  79  69  78  64 / 100  10  10   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...11/MCKAUGHAN



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