Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 011914
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
314 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT - A STOUT RIDGE SPRAWLED OUT FROM THE GREAT BASIN/ 4
CORNERS REGION...TROUGHING WAS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH AN AXIS
FROM JAMES BAY TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...AND A RIDGE FROM THE
ATLANTIC REACHED ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE - A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WAS STRUNG OUT FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
THEN UP TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGED ACROSS CENTRAL FL TO MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-THURSDAY)...
THE WESTERN RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED IN PLACE AS IT SPREADS OUT
FROM THE PACIFIC COAST TO SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE EASTERN TROUGINESS
RESIDES IN PLACE WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ROTATING THROUGH IT/S
BASE...BRUSHING NORTHERN FL AT TIMES. THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES
FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE GULF... MEANDERING ACROSS FL. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS WITH
LITTLE MOVEMENT. THE SURFACE RIDGE REACHES FROM THE ATLANTIC...
ACROSS FL BETWEEN BETWEEN TAMPA BAY AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR...TO THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

DEEP LAYER RIDGING...ALOFT AND SURFACE...ROUGHLY BISECTING THE AREA
FROM EAST TO WEST PROVIDES A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. THERE WILL BE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS NORTH OF TAMPA BAY WITH SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS...BUT SHIFTING TO ONSHORE IN AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES...SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MOIST WITH
MODEL PWAT VALUES RUNNING 1.6 TO ALMOST 1.9 INCHES. THIS WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED BUT OCCASIONALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT LIMITED LATE NIGHT CONVECTION ON THE
GULF THAT DRIFTS ON SHORE LATE IN THE MORNING...MORE SO IN THE
NORTH DUE TO PREVAILING SW AND WEST WINDS. ACTIVITY INCREASES IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON INLAND...CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST IN THE NORTH
AND CLOSER TO THE GULF IN THE SOUTH...WHERE IT MAXES OUT DUE TO
SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS. TEMPERATURES STAY NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE BY A DEGREE OR TWO.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH LARGE SCALE RIDGING OVER
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD GENERALLY RESIDE JUST SOUTH OF THE
MAIN INFLUENCE OF THIS TROUGH...KEEPING MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
CONDITIONS IN OUR FORECAST. THE MAIN HAZARDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS...ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE RIDGE
PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA WILL KEEP THE STORM PATTERNS
EACH DAY RATHER INDISTINCT. WITH MANY PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
THIS WEEKEND... JUST EXPECT AND PLAN TO DODGE A STORM OR TWO EACH
DAY...IN ALMOST ANY LOCATION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH LOWER 90S COMMON DURING THE
DAY AND HEAT INDICES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 100.
ANOTHER ANY SUMMER STORMS CAN BRIEFLY BECOME STRONG WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS...THERE ARE NO SYNOPTIC INFLUENCES SEEN
THAT WOULD SUGGEST LIKELY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ANY OF THE
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
01/18Z-02/18Z. CONVECTION HAS CLEARED THE NORTHERN TERMINALS BUT
WILL KEEP VCTS INTO MID/LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO SPREAD
INTO OR EAST OF SOUTHERN TERMINAL LATER AND THEN POSSIBLY DRIFT
BACK WEST IN THE EVENING...HAVE SOME TEMPO MVFR AND CARRIED VCTS
INTO THE EVENING. VFR THROUGH REST OF PERIOD WITH VCSH NEAR THE
END.

&&

.MARINE...
A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BISECT CENTRAL FL FROM EAST
TO WEST WITH RATHER MODEST WINDS AND SEAS...NO MORE THAN 15 KNOTS
AND LESS THAN 4 FEET. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NO HIGHLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A MOIST AIRMASS WILL PRECLUDE ANY LOW HUMIDITY CONCERNS. HOWEVER
THERE WILL BE LIGHTNING FROM THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  93  78  92 /  10  20  20  40
FMY  76  94  76  94 /  40  40  30  40
GIF  75  95  76  95 /  20  40  40  50
SRQ  76  92  78  91 /  10  20  20  30
BKV  72  93  72  93 /  10  30  20  40
SPG  80  92  80  92 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...14/MROCZKA


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