Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 301129

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
729 AM EDT Tue May 30 2017

Fog has remained mainly north of the Tampa Bay this
morning, and some isolated showers are dissipating near
KLAL. Otherwise, VFR conditions will hold into this
afternoon, when scattered storms are expected to develop,
with the most likely sites to be impacted over southwest
Florida (KRSW, KFMY, and KPGD), and over the interior
(KLAL). Chances of thunderstorms will continue through
around 02-03z before VFR conditions return.


.Prev Discussion... /issued 350 AM EDT Tue May 30 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today-Wednesday)...
A strong U/L ridge east of Florida will pull away from the
region today. A L/W trough extending from the Great Lakes to
the northern Gulf of Mexico will rotate slowly east
approaching the eastern seaboard on Wednesday. The southern
extent of the trough will be located over the Florida
peninsula which will lower heights a bit over the region.
This will decrease large scale subsidence over the area, and
combined with increasing deep layer moisture will allow the
atmosphere to destabilize each afternoon with scattered
showers and thunderstorms developing along the west coast
sea breeze boundary, with increasing areal coverage over the
interior peninsula each mid/late afternoon as the east and
west coast sea breeze boundaries collide. The stronger
storms will be capable of producing locally heavy rain,
gusty winds, and frequent cloud to ground lightning.
Temperatures will continue to run above climatic normals,
however daytime high temperatures will run a few degrees
less than the past couple of days due to increased cloud
cover and afternoon thunderstorm activity.

LONG TERM (Wednesday Night-Monday)...
Ridging aloft over the region will be shunted southeast of
the area through the end of the week, with a more zonal flow
taking its place. At the surface, the Atlantic ridge axis
will generally remain over the northern part of the Florida
peninsula, with a southeast low-level flow setting up across
the forecast area. This overall pattern will feature less
suppression which will lead to increased rain chances for
both Thursday and Friday afternoons. The southeast flow will
likely not be strong enough to pin the sea breeze right at
the coast, so the ideal collision and best rain chances will
be just to the east of I-75.

The pattern changes for the weekend and early next week as
a trough begins to dig toward the northern Gulf coast
region. There remain some differences in the global models
regarding the strength and speed of this feature, with the
GFS continuing to show a higher degree of amplification. The
GFS is also more aggressive with the surface feature and
would bring our area higher synoptically-driven rain chances
Sunday and especially into Monday. As this is the very end
of the forecast period, will continue to watch model trends
over the next several days and stick with a persistent
forecast for now.

Winds will remain less than 15 knots with seas less than 4
feet through the period. Main hazard will be an increasing
chance of late afternoon/evening thunderstorms mid to late
week. The stronger storms will be capable of producing
strong gusty winds, locally rough seas, and frequent cloud
to water lightning.

No fire weather hazards are expected through the remainder
of the week as minimum relative humidity values are expected
to remain above critical levels each afternoon.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  91  76  91  76 /  10  10  20  10
FMY  94  74  92  74 /  30  30  40  20
GIF  95  73  93  73 /  40  30  50  30
SRQ  89  75  90  74 /  10  10  20  10
BKV  91  70  91  71 /  20   0  30  10
SPG  90  77  89  77 /  10   0  20  10


Gulf waters...None.



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