Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 260835
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
335 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 334 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

A warm October night across the area as a warm front continues to
lift northeastward in the overnight hours.  Easterly winds across
the Kansas river valley northward are expected to continue to turn
southerly and strengthen through the day today. With clouds
developing farther northeast into northwest Missouri, may still see
some patchy morning fog under mostly clear skies before winds pick
up later today.

Strong mixing this afternoon should bring high temperatures toward
record highs, with middle to upper 80s widespread from I-70
southward. Sustained winds around 20 mph with gusts around 30-35 mph
are forecast for the mid to late afternoon hours. Next front
approaches and noses into far northwestern counties by sunrise on
Monday, with lows from near 50 northwest and near 60 in the
southeast.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

On Monday morning the mid/upper level trough begins to swing out
across the central and northern plains. Some models are hinting at a
weak lead shortwave will provide some mid level lift as early as
late Monday morning over east central KS. Have updated the forecast
to included a slight chance of showers in those areas. The low
levels are rather dry therefore not expecting much accumulation with
that initial wave. A front is expected through slide through the
region during the day Monday. Models show increasing low level
frontogenesis and 850 mb moisture over eastern KS associated with
the main trough. There will be a well established EML Monday morning
that will slowly erode as the trough approaches. Indications are
that locations over central KS will remain capped when the front
moves through. The best chances for the cap to erode and precip to
develop will be east central KS Monday afternoon and evening before
quickly moving off the east. The NAM does suggest cape around 500
j/kg so a few thunderstorms will be possible. There may be enough
low level saturation and lift for a brief light rain behind the
front overnight.

Cooler air filters in behind the system on Tuesday with highs only
in the 60s as northwest flow aloft becomes well established. An
embedded shortwave within the NW flow will pass over the central US
Wednesday night, but limited lift will prevent any good chances for
precip. It will result in another cold front to move through the
area. The 00Z ECMWF still drops a strong shortwave from southern
Canada into the OH valley, while the GFS is slightly further north
with this feature. This results in another push of cold air, and 850
mb temps around 0-5 C on Friday. Therefore the high temps for Friday
and into the weekend will be cooler than normal in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Confidence remains moderate in IFR to LIFR ceilings and vis tonight
at TAF sites. Conditions should deteriorate after 07Z with some
combination of a ceiling around 1000 ft and vis below 5SM. Then
expect continued reduction of both cig and vis with IFR appearing
likely after 09Z. These conditions should remain in place until
around 14Z when increased mixing will bring a rapid improvement to
SKC with gusty winds. Also expect LLWS tonight with winds from the
east at sfc and southwest winds to 30 kts around 1000 ft AGL.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Barjenbruch






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