Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS01 KWNS 251612
SWODY1
SPC AC 251610

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1010 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

Valid 251630Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TEXAS
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...

...SUMMARY...
A few storms capable of producing hail, localized wind damage or a
brief/weak tornado are possible parts of Texas today, and then
across the central Gulf Coast region tonight.

...TX today...
Clusters of thunderstorms are affecting parts of central and
southeast TX this morning, ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough and
in region of low-level warm advection.  Continued re-development in
this area will likely persist trough the afternoon, with sufficient
elevated CAPE and deep-layer shear to promote rotating cells capable
of hail.  The risk of organized severe storms appears marginal.

...Western/Middle Gulf Coast tonight...
Later tonight, the low-level air mass is forecast to slowly recover
along the immediate Gulf Coast from southern LA into the FL
Panhandle.  Most 12z model guidance is consistent in the development
of thunderstorms tonight along/north of the retreating warm front
over LA.  These storms will track eastward in vicinity of the
boundary and move across parts of MS/AL/FL.  While the overall
severe threat appears low, there is some risk of locally
gusty/damaging winds or a brief tornado.

..Hart/Gleason.. 02/25/2018

$$


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