Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
ACUS01 KWNS 180101
SWODY1
SPC AC 180059

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

VALID 180100Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE
EVENING...WHILE REMAINING POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST.  CONSIDERABLY STRONGER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD STORMS SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

...SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN U.S...
MODELS SUGGEST THAT A CONSOLIDATION OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES...WITHIN
THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT WESTERLIES EMERGING FROM THE MID
LATITUDE PACIFIC...AND ANOTHER BELT EMERGING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL
EASTERN PACIFIC...WILL LEAD TO THE CONTINUING EVOLUTION OF A PAIR OF
LARGER SCALE SHORT TROUGHS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S.
TONIGHT.  THE LEAD WAVE IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE GULF COAST REGION
AND GULF OF MEXICO...AND ASSOCIATED FORCING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO
EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTO
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

THE MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION...SUPPORTED BY AN INFLOW OF MODERATE TO
STRONGLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER BASED AIR...LIKELY WILL REMAIN
FOCUSED NEAR A REMNANT SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO.  IN THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...ACTIVITY COULD BECOME INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED AND STRONG TO
SEVERE...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO APPROACH FLORIDA GULF COASTAL AREAS
OR WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z FRIDAY.  RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH OF THIS COMPLEX MAY...HOWEVER...IMPACT
COASTAL AREAS FROM LOUISIANA EASTWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...REMNANT DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE TAMPA AREA BY 01-02Z...BEFORE CONTINUING TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH/DISSIPATE.

...PARTS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE
SPLIT WESTERLIES EMERGING FROM THE MID LATITUDE PACIFIC...APPEARS TO
BE PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND
NORTHWESTERN NEVADA.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST WHILE SPREADING
NORTHEASTWARD ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT SEEMS LIKELY TO DIMINISH
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BY 03-04Z.

..KERR.. 04/18/2014




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.