Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS01 KWNS 241941
SWODY1
SPC AC 241939

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0239 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

VALID 242000Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS
AND UPPER MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...DISCUSSION...

NO CHANGES TO 1630Z SEVERE PROBS.

VERY MOIST PLUME...ROUGHLY 150MI WIDE AND CHARACTERIZED BY EXTENSIVE
CLOUDS/PRECIP...HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF PLAINS COLD FRONT/DRY LINE.
STRONGEST CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN HIGHER INSTABILITY AIR MASS
OVER THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO
THE LOWER 80S.  WHILE AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...LATEST
TRENDS SUGGEST HEAVY RAIN MAY BE THE GREATEST RISK DUE TO TRAINING
WITHIN HIGH PW AIR MASS.

..DARROW.. 09/24/2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016/

...PLAINS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS PRESENT TODAY OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...WITH RELATIVELY FAST MERIDIONAL DEEP LAYER FLOW OVER THE
PLAINS STATES.  A PLUME OF CONSIDERABLE LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
MARGINAL-MODERATE CAPE VALUES ARE COINCIDENT WITH THE STRONGER WIND
FIELDS.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A BROAD ZONE OF MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT FROM WESTERN NORTH TX...ACROSS PARTS OF OK/KS AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.  LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN
THREAT...BUT SOME CONCERN WILL EXIST FOR HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO
OVER PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND MN.  WEAK LAPSE RATES...NUMEROUS
POCKETS OF CLOUD COVER...AND RAPID OVERTURNING OF UNCAPPED AIR MASS
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD LIMIT THE RISK OF A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE
THREAT.

...OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION...
A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS ACROSS IL/IND/KY INTO WV/VA.  WHILE A
FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THIS AXIS...IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT
COVERAGE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL WARRANT INCLUSION INTO A
THUNDERSTORM RISK AREA AT THIS TIME.

$$



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