Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS01 KWNS 020101
SWODY1
SPC AC 020100

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT WED OCT 01 2014

VALID 020100Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE CNTRL AND
SRN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE FROM
EASTERN KANSAS INTO NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS EVENING.
A SEPARATE AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS. A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL
AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT.

...ERN KS INTO NCNTRL AND CNTRL MO...

NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE UNDERWAY OVER EASTERN KS BOTH
IN WARM SECTOR IN ASSOCIATION WITH INTENSIFYING LLJ AND ALONG NE-SW
ORIENTED BOUNDARY ACROSS NERN KS. OTHER NUMEROUS STORMS CONTINUE
FARTHER EAST ACROSS CNTRL AND NCNTRL MO WHERE THE STRENGTHENING LLJ
IS FORCING ASCENT ALONG AND NORTH OF A CONVECTIVELY MODIFIED
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE
IN THIS REGION AND 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZED STRUCTURES INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS...BUT A COUPLE OF TORNADOES
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING MAINLY IN WARM SECTOR AND ALONG
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES.

...NWRN THROUGH NCNTRL KS AND SOUTHERN NEB...

MODEST WWD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT EXISTS OVER CNTRL AND WRN KS
WITHIN AN ELY POST-FRONTAL REGIME. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A ZONE OF DEEP
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
ERN CO WHICH IS COINCIDENT WITH A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. AS
THIS ZONE OF ASCENT INTERACTS WITH RICHER MOISTURE AND GREATER
INSTABILITY DOWNSTREAM...STORMS MAY DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY OVER WRN
KS AND SWRN NEB AND SPREAD EWD OVERNIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. OTHER WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ARE
CURRENTLY INCREASING NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY FROM CNTRL KS NWD INTO
SCNTRL NEB.

...NCNTRL TX THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN OK INTO SRN MO...

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITHIN ZONE OF WEAK
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSIFYING LLJ FROM NCNTRL TX
NEWD THROUGH OK INTO SERN KS AND SWRN MO. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...BUT COULD POSE AT LEAST A MODEST
THREAT FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL.

..DIAL.. 10/02/2014



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