Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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498
ACUS01 KWNS 300102
SWODY1
SPC AC 300100

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

VALID 300100Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CO HIGH
PLAINS INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF CNTRL AND SRN
AZ...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE TX PANHANDLE...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK IN
CNTRL AND SRN AZ...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE TX PANHANDLE AND NWRN
TX INTO SWRN OK...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE ARKLATEX...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA...THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION...AND THE ARKLATEX.

...CO HIGH PLAINS INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE...
A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD DURING THE EVENING
ACROSS THE REGION AND THIS FEATURE IS AIDING IN STORM DEVELOPMENT
AND SHEAR PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED CELLULAR STORMS /INCLUDING A FEW
SUPERCELLS/.  MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE PROSPECTS FOR AN ORGANIZED
LINEAR COMPLEX TO MOVE SEWD ARE SUFFICIENTLY LOW TO RENDER AN EARLY
EVENING RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO BE MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLD
SEVERE GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING.

...CNTRL AND SRN AZ...
CONGEALING COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN CNTRL AND
SERN AZ HAS PROPAGATED INTO THE LOWER DESERTS WHERE LARGE
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS RESIDE.  AN INVERTED-V PROFILE SAMPLED BY THE
EVENING AREA RAOBS WILL SUPPORT EVAPORATIVELY ENHANCED DOWNDRAFTS
CAPABLE OF ISOLD SEVERE GUSTS THROUGH THE MID-LATE EVENING AS STORMS
MOVE GENERALLY SW TOWARDS THE MEXICAN BORDER.

...PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
AN ORGANIZING LINEAR BAND OF STORMS OVER THE NWRN TX PANHANDLE
RESIDES IN A RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW REGIME BUT STRONG VEERING OF THE
WIND PROFILE IS RESULTING IN 25-KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDE.  AMPLE
MIXED-LAYER CAPE /1700 J PER KG/ ON THE AMA RAOB AND SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE WILL PROBABLY AID IN STORMS CONTINUING SEWD ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE REGION THIS EVENING.  ISOLD TO WIDELY SCTD SEVERE GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE GRADUAL BOUNDARY-LAYER STABILIZATION ACTS TO
WEAKEN STORMS LATER TONIGHT AS THEY MOVE INTO NWRN TX.

...ARKLATEX...
A WEST-EAST ORIENTED BAND OF EARLY-EVENING STORMS OVER ERN OK/SWRN
AR WILL RESIDE IN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT FEATURING DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW-MID 70S DEG F.  FAIRLY WEAK WIND PROFILES WILL TEND TO LIMIT
OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION BUT A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISHES.

..SMITH.. 07/30/2016

$$



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