Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS01 KWNS 301932
SWODY1
SPC AC 301930

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VALID 302000Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE
DELMARVA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL GULF
COAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS -- AND A COUPLE OF ISOLATED/MARGINALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SIMILAR SEVERE THREAT
FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

...DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK. A THREAT OF
ISOLATED...MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS CONTINUES ACROSS THE CNTRL
GULF COAST STATES DUE TO PULSE STORMS DRIVEN BY STRONG HEATING AND
HIGH PRECIPITATION WATER...WITH ISOLATED WIND ALSO POSSIBLE FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND IN ASSOCIATION WITH ENHANCED WIND
FIELDS VIA THE UPPER TROUGH.

..JEWELL.. 07/30/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

...SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY STAGNANT MID-LEVEL PATTERN WILL PERSIST THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD...AS A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH LINGERS OVER
CENTRAL AND ERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND RIDGING RESIDES
OVER THE S CENTRAL AND WRN STATES.  AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE ITS ADVANCE EWD ACROSS THE ERN U.S. AND SWD TOWARD THE
GULF COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC...
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM FROM ERN NY
SSWWD INTO WRN VA...INVOF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING EWD ACROSS THE
REGION.  ADDITIONAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE...WITH A FEW
STRONGER CELLS LIKELY TO EVOLVE -- AIDED BY MODERATE /AROUND 30 KT/
MID-LEVEL WLYS.  A COUPLE OF THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD BRIEFLY
PRODUCE MARGINAL HAIL AND/OR WIND GUSTS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

...THE SOUTH...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY EWD
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TODAY...IN THE VICINITY OF A COLD FRONT
SAGGING SWD ACROSS THE AREA...AS HEATING OF THE MOIST LOW-LEVEL
AIRMASS RESULTS IN MODERATE DESTABILIZATION.  WHILE MOST STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN DISORGANIZED/SUB-SEVERE...SLIGHTLY ENHANCED /20 KT/
MID-LEVEL NLY/NELY FLOW AT MID LEVELS MAY SUPPORT ONE OR TWO
MULTICELL-TYPE STORMS AND/OR CLUSTERS OF STORMS CAPABLE OF BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS THAT COULD APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS.  STORMS WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING.



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