Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS01 KWNS 291232
SWODY1
SPC AC 291231

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0731 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VALID 291300Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WISCONSIN
THIS AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT FROM COLORADO AND NEW
MEXICO EASTWARD ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS.

...SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH ESTABLISHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...AND A
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES.  IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ERN TROUGH...A
SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PROGRESSED EWD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND SWD
INTO N FL AND THE N CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.  THE FRONTAL ZONE
EXTENDS WNWWD ACROSS SE AND S CENTRAL TX TO SE NM.  FARTHER N...A
MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME IS UNDERWAY FROM ERN NM INTO ERN CO...ON
THE E SIDE OF A BROADER MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE SRN GREAT
BASIN AND SRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES.  THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL FAVOR
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE
FL PENINSULA TODAY...ALONG THE FRONT IN TX THIS AFTERNOON...AND A
CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS...AS WELL AS LARGELY DIURNAL STORMS OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND NRN ROCKIES.  A SEPARATE AREA OF DIURNAL CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED ACROSS WI WITH THE MIDLEVEL COLD CORE SYSTEM.

THE PRIMARY IMPACT OF THE STORMS ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
SHOULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.  AN INITIAL CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER
E CENTRAL NM SHOULD WEAKEN BY LATE MORNING...WHILE NEW STORMS FORM
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE W BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  THE SEVERE
WEATHER RISK WITH THIS CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS CO BY
RATHER POOR LAPSE RATES AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR.  THERE MAY BE SOME
ENHANCEMENT TO VERTICAL SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS E
CENTRAL NM AND VICINITY...BUT RATHER MODEST BUOYANCY AND
INCREASINGLY MOIST PROFILES DO NOT APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUBSTANTIAL
WIND OR HAIL RISKS.  OVERNIGHT...A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EWD OVER SW KS/THE TX PANHANDLE AND S
PLAINS...AND WRN OK AS WAA INCREASES WITH A 35 KT LLJ.

HAIL MAY APPROACH 1 INCH IN DIAMETER WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS
ACROSS WI...WHERE LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WILL FORM BY EARLY AFTERNOON
IN ASSOCIATION WITH COOL MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES AND EMBEDDED SPEED
MAXIMA ROTATING SWD AROUND THE CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY.

..THOMPSON/BOTHWELL.. 07/29/2014



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