Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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662
ACUS01 KWNS 241242
SWODY1
SPC AC 241241

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR NW
OK AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SW KS/NE TX PANHANDLE...

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TONIGHT FOR NE CO INTO SW NEB...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NW TX NWD TO NEB...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT
RISK...FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND
TX...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT
FOR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND
THE NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE.  VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE.  ANOTHER FOCUSED SEVERE STORM THREAT AREA WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY TONIGHT.

...NW OK AND VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY WILL
EJECT NEWD TOWARD THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AS OTHER MORE SUBTLE
SPEED MAXIMA LIKEWISE EJECT NEWD FROM NM TO KS.  A SURFACE LEE
CYCLONE WILL BE MAINTAINED IN SW KS THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN THE
LOW WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS KS TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE EJECTING
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  S OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE...A
DRYLINE WILL MIX EWD TO THE CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  FARTHER E-NE...ONGOING CONVECTION NEAR
I-70 IN KS HAS BEGUN TO PROPAGATE SEWD ON CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW.  SOME
FORM OF THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE SEWD THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS
ERN/SERN KS...WRN MO...NERN OK...AND NWRN AR...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.  THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY TRAILING WWD FROM THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SWD
INTO SW KS AND PERHAPS NW OK BY THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN QUITE UNSTABLE AGAIN TODAY WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 65-70 F RANGE AS THE LOW-LEVELS RECOVER
BEHIND THE SMALL MCS NOW WEAKENING OVER S CENTRAL OK.  AFTERNOON
MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000-4000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-45 KT
WILL FAVOR SPLITTING SUPERCELLS ON THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.  THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL ACT TO
ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AS WARM SECTOR LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALSO INCREASES
THIS EVENING.  THE DRYLINE/OUTFLOW STORMS COULD GROW UPSCALE INTO AN
MCS OVERNIGHT ACROSS OK.

...NE CO TO SW NEB THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE
DEVELOPING DENVER CYCLONE...IN A BACKGROUND UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD WWD FROM KS INTO NE CO...WHILE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS IN A GRADUALLY DESTABILIZING
ENVIRONMENT.  THE STORMS SHOULD FORM EARLY-MID AFTERNOON AND THEN
SPREAD ENEWD TOWARD SW NEB THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.  LARGE HAIL AND A
COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH DAMAGING GUSTS.
THE STORMS COULD GROW UPSCALE INTO A CLUSTER TONIGHT ACROSS NEB.

..THOMPSON/COHEN.. 05/24/2016

$$



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