Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 072321
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
721 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED DRYING ACROSS THE WRN LAKES AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM JAMES BAY TO NRN LOWER MI SLIDES OFF TO
THE EAST. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY WAS BUILDING INTO THE NRN LAKES RESULTING IN ACYC NRLY FLOW
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH UPPER MI. THIS HAS BROUGHT COOL AIR INTO
THE AREA WITH READINGS RANGING FROM AROUND 60 NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO
THE MID 60S SOUTH AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S. VIS LOOP SHOWED AN
EXTENSIVE CU FIELD OVER THE INLAND WEST HALF BU MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVER THE EAST.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES WILLL BRING VERY FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AS
PWAT VALUES DROP TO AROUND 0.4 INCH. EXPECT TEMPS TOWARD THE LOWER
END OF GUIDANCE WITH MIN READINGS INTO THE UPPER 30S OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST HALF WHERE A MENTION OF PATCHY FROST WAS INCLUDED.

WED...SUNSHINE WITH FCST MIXING HEIGHTS TO AROUND 800 MB WILL
SUPPORT MAX READINGS INTO THE LOWER 70S AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
AROUND 10C. LAKE BREEZES WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO LOCATIONS NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE WL BE PRIMARILY
TEMPS THRU FRI AND THEN POPS OVER THE WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH SHRTWV
RIDING OVER BLDG UPR RDG IN THE PLAINS/ASSOCIATED WARM FNT IN THE
UPR MIDWEST. EXPECT A GENERAL WARMING TREND THRU THE LONGER TERM AS
THE UPR RDG BLDS OVER CENTRAL NAMERICA. BUT DEPENDING ON HOW FAR W
THE RDG AXIS SHIFTS NEXT WEEK...COOLER WX MAY RETURN THEN.

WED NGT/THU...DISTURBANCE RIDING THRU THE FASTER NRN BRANCH FLOW
OVER SCENTRAL CANADA IS FCST TO DRAG A WEAK LO PRES TROF/BAND OF
HIER MID LVL RH ACROSS THE UPR LKS TO THE N OF LINGERING SFC HI PRES
RDG STRETCHING FM THE UPR MIDWEST INTO NEW ENGLAND. SINCE THE BULK
OF THE DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC/HGT FALLS ARE FCST TO REMAIN IN
NW ONTARIO AND THERE WL BE ONLY MARGINAL MSTR INFLOW INTO THE UPR
LKS AHEAD OF THE TROF...EXPECT ANY SHOWERS TO REMAIN N OF THE CWA. A
BIT STRONGER WSW FLOW AND HIER PWAT APRCHG AN INCH WL MAKE FOR A
MUCH WARMER NGT ON WED NGT. WITH H85 TEMPS ON THU FCST IN THE 13-14C
RANGE...MAX TEMPS ON THU WL REACH AS HI AS THE LO 80S AWAY FM LK
MODERATION.

THU NGT/FRI...UNDER REBOUNDING UPR HGTS IN THE WAKE OF SHRTWV
PASSING INTO QUEBEC AND N OF BLDG UPR RDG OVER THE SE CONUS...SFC HI
PRES CENTERED OVER THE LOWER LKS WL DOMINATE UPR MI WX AND BRING DRY
CONDITIONS. WSW FLOW ARND THE SFC HI TO THE S AND H85 TEMPS RISING
TO ABOUT 15-17C BY 00Z SAT SUPPORT A SLOW WARMING TREND. MAX TEMPS
ON FRI SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S AT SOME LOCATIONS AWAY FM MAINLY LK
MI COOLING...EVEN IF THERE IS AN INCRS IN HI CLD AS SOME MODELS HINT
TO THE N OF A WARM FNT DRIFTING INTO THE UPR MIDWEST.

WEEKEND...BLDG UPR RDG CENTER IS FCST TO DRIFT SLOWLY W INTO THE SRN
PLAINS. THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
A SHRTWV RIDING THRU THE NRN PLAINS OVER THE UPR RDG AXIS...WITH
ASSOCIATED WARM FNT SITUATED IN THE UPR MIDWEST. NOT SURPRISINGLY...
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK OF THE SHRTWV/LOCATION OF
THE SFC-H85 WARM FNT AND AXIS OF PCPN. IN GENERAL...THE 00Z/12Z
ECMWF SHOWED A FARTHER S LOCATION OF THE FNT/PCPN WHILE THE 00Z
CNDN/12Z GFS MODELS FCST A FARTHER N POSITION AND RETURN OF
SHOWERS/TS AS EARLY AS LATE FRI NGT. THESE FARTHER N MODELS ALSO
INDICATE H85 TEMPS WL BE AT LEAST NEAR 20C...WHICH WL SUPPORT ABV
NORMAL TEMPS. WL RELY ON MODEL CONSENSUS CHC POPS GIVEN THE
DIFFERENCES ON LATE PERIOD/WARM SEASON FCST DETAILS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE UPR RDG AXIS AMPLIFIES IN THE PLAINS...
TREND FOR THE UPR FLOW TO SHIFT MORE TO THE NW MAY ALLOW CNDN HI
PRES TO BUILD BACK INTO THE UPR LKS AND PUSH COLD FNT/DEEPER MSTR TO
THE S. BUT THERE ARE SGNFT DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING OF THESE
EVENTS. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HINTS ANOTHER SHRTWV MAY BRING A ROUND
OF SHOWERS/TS ON MON/TUE BEFORE THE STRONGER COLD FROPA...SO WL HOLD
ON TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS FCST.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 721 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

AS HI PRES APPROACHES THE LAKE THIS EVENING...WINDS WILL DIMINISH
UNDER 20 KTS. WITH RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRADIENT AND HI OVERWATER
STABILITY TYPICAL FOR THE SUMMER DOMINATING THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 20 KTS THRU THIS WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...07
MARINE...KC


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