Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 240112
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
912 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW UPR RDG AXIS BLDG
INTO THE GREAT LKS IN ADVANCE OF A SHRTWV MOVING NEWD THRU THE
NCENTRAL PLAINS. WITH SFC HI PRES RDG STRETCHING FM OHIO NWWD THRU
THE UPR MIDWEST UNDER THE UPR RDG AND DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...12Z
PWAT WAS AS LO AS ABOUT 0.50 INCH /ABOUT 70 PERCENT OF NORMAL/ AT
MPX...SKIES ARE MOSUNNY. THERE IS A BACK DOOR COLD FNT SLIPPING
SLOWLY SWWD THRU THRU THE E HALF OF LK SUP ASSOCIATED WITH BLDG HI
PRES NEAR JAMES BAY...BUT THE AIRMASS IS SO DRY THERE ARE NO CLDS
ALONG THIS BNDRY IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY DYNAMIC SUPPORT. H85 TEMPS
ARE AS HI AS 12-13C...SUPPORTING TEMPS THAT HAVE RISEN INTO THE 70S
AWAY FM LK MODERATION. LOOKING UPSTREAM...HI CLDS ASSOCIATED WITH
PLAINS SHRTWV ARE ADVANCING INTO NW WI.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS DURING THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED ON TEMPS AND
EXPECTED CLD COVER/POTENTIAL FOR ANY SHOWERS LATER ON WED OVER AT
LEAST THE FAR WRN CWA IN ADVANCE OF DISTURBANCE MOVING THRU THE
PLAINS.

LATE TDAY/TNGT...ALTHOUGH BACK DOOR COLD FNT REINFORCED BY LK BREEZE
FORMATION/INLAND HEATING MAY SLIP INTO THE CWA BORDERING LK SUP FM
THE KEWEENAW E TOWARD WHITEFISH PT LATE THIS AFTN...SUBSIDENCE/DRY
AIRMASS WL LIMIT IMPACT TO SOME LOCAL COOLING NEAR THE SHORE.
OTRW...HI CLDS IN ADVANCE OF THE SHRTWV MOVING NEWD THRU THE PLAINS
WL ARRIVE OVER AT LEAST THE W HALF OF UPR MI OVERNT. THE COMBINATION
OF THESE INCRSG HI CLDS/STRENGTHENING SSW H925 FLOW TO 25 KTS LATE
UNDER A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT CLOSER TO INCOMING SHRTWV WL LIMIT THE
DIURNAL TEMP FALL OVER THE W. THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP MAY
NOT SEE TEMPS FALL BLO 50. EXPECT THE LOWEST MIN TEMPS NEAR 40 AT
THE INTERIOR COLD SPOTS OVER THE E UNDER WEAKER GRADIENT/LINGERING
DRIER AIR. MAINTAINED PATCHY FOG FCST IN THE FCST FOR THE E HALF
WITH FVRBL DIURNAL COOLING.

WED...AS SHRTWV MOVES INTO NE MN/NW WI BY LATE AND SOME DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC OVERSPREADS UPR MI...AT LEAST MID/HI CLDS WL BE
THICKENING SW-NE THRU THE DAY. A NUMBER OF THE MODELS GENERATE SOME
LGT PCPN OVER THE FAR W LATE IN THE AFTN WHERE THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES A DEEPER INCRS IN MSTR UNDER THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME CONCERN ABOUT HOW QUICKLY THE NEAR SFC LYR WL
MOISTEN...THE NAM AND GFS BOTH INDICATE PWAT WL INCRS TO 1.25-1.35
INCH OR ABOUT 175 PCT OF NORMAL. SO INTRODUCED SOME LO CHC POPS INTO
THE FAR W LATE IN THE DAY. INCRSG CLDS WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL RISE IN
TEMP TO THE 60S AT MOST PLACES DESPITE STEADY S WIND THAT MAINTAINS
H85 TEMPS IN THE 10-12C RANGE. THE HIEST TEMPS MOST LIKELY TO REACH
AOA 70 WL BE OVER THE NCENTRAL AND E AWAY FM MODERATION OFF LK MI
AND WHERE THE CLDS WL THICKEN LATER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TEMP WISE...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID AND UPPER 70S. THE COOLEST
READINGS WILL BE FOUND ALONG LAKE MI...ON S WINDS. THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE ON THOSE DAYS WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...AND THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE W HALF. THIS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 500MB THROUGH THAT WILL BE SHIFTING FROM W
LAKE SUPERIOR AT 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.P. BY 12Z
THURSDAY. KEPT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE W HALF. THE
SFC RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...AND WITH NO REAL PULL OF MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF...LIMITED PRECIP IS ANTICIPATED. THE WEAKENING TROUGH
WILL SINK SE THURSDAY...WITH CLOUDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
DAY.

AT THAT POINT...THE SIZABLE 500MB RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM MUCH OF THE
W AND CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. A SFC TROUGH
SET UP N OF LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY MAY SINK ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON
SUNDAY. WENT WITH COOLER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT
STILL MAINLY IN THE 60S...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS MOVING
ACROSS MORE OF N UPPER MI DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...A
FEW MORE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS COME TUESDAY AS THE MAIN 500MB RIDGE EXITS TO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND STATES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 908 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLDS FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AND WED IN
ADVANCE OF A DISTURBANCE MOVING NE FM THE PLAINS. OTHERWISE THE DRY
LLVL AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH PERSISTENT HI PRES WL BRING VFR
CONDITIONS TO ALL 3 TAF SITES THIS FCST PERIOD. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT DOMINATING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THRU
THIS COMING WEEKEND AND COOL LAKE WATERS/HI STABILITY...EXPECT WINDS
NO HIGHER THAN 20 KTS THRU SUN.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC





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