Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 050747
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
347 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

NAM SHOWS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A SHORTWAVE OVER LOWER
MIC...A SHORTWAVE OVER N MN AND A TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND A
STRONG 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THE SHORTWAVE OVER N MN
WILL HEAD NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO TODAY WHILE THE SHORTWAVE
OVER LOWER MI WILL SLOWLY HEAD EAST. NAM SHOWS SOME WEAK 850-500 MB
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA 12Z SUN WITH SOME
DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING IN.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TONIGHT. AM A LITTLE WORRIED ABOUT LOW CLOUDS HANGING AROUND A BIT
LONGER TODAY...BUT ONCE THOSE MIX AND CLEAR OUT THIS
AFTERNOON...SHOULD HEAT UP PRETTY GOOD AND LEFT TEMPERATURES ALONE
FOR NOW. DID KEEP IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS MORNING FOR
THE NORTH AND WESTERN CWA AS TAIL END OF SHORTWAVE PASSES BY TO THE
NORTH TODAY. WILL BRING IN SOME CHANCE POPS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS MOST
OF THE CWA AS UPPER DYNAMICS AND DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A SURFACE LOW WILL SLIDE FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND SASKATCHEWAN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. ALOFT...A 500MB CLOSED LOW WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN...HELPING TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THAT
HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. AS
THIS HAPPENS...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO EASTERN MN.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY...WILL BE ACROSS FAR WESTERN UPPER MI...WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
AND EASTERN MN AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THAT AREA. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
HELPING TO KEEP THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE CO-LOCATION WITH THE COLD FRONT.
SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE UPPER PENINSULA AS THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE U.P. AS THE FRONT SLIDES ACROSS
THE AREA...HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE...LIFT AND
INSTABILITY IN PLACE TO ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SHORTWAVE...BUT THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL U.P. WILL SEE AROUND OR JUST UNDER 1000 J/KG
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE
LIMITED DUE TO TIME OF DAY...THE HIGHER FREEZING LEVELS PROGGED TO
BE AROUND 14-15KFT ALONG WITH GENERALLY WEAK SHEAR OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE STRONGER SHEAR WILL LIKELY LAG
WELL BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE DRIER AIR. PWAT VALUES AROUND 1 TO 2
INCHES ALONG WITH WEAK CORFIDI VECTORS WOULD INDICATE...AS PREVIOUS
SHIFTS MENTIONED...HEAVIER RAIN MAY BE THE BIGGEST THREAT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA AS THE COLD
FRONT PROGRESSES INTO THE FAR EASTERN U.P. THIS WILL SHIFT THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TO THE FAR EASTERN U.P. EARLY IN
THE MORNING...AS DRY AIR AND A SURFACE HIGH SLIDES INTO THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN U.P...BRINGING A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO SLIDE OVER MUCH OF
THE UPPER PENINSULA MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE CASE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY TUESDAY AS FAIRLY DRY AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA AT THE
SAME TIME THAT ZONAL FLOW SLIDES IN ALOFT. TUESDAY NIGHT MODEL
CONSENSUS HINTED THAT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH THE UPPER PENINSULA. THE
GEM HAD MORE MOISTURE THAN THE 00Z EC/GFS. THE 12Z EC HAD THE AREA
DRY AND THE 00Z GFS HAD THE U.P. DRY...BUT THE LATEST EC AND THE GEM
DID KEEP MORE MOISTURE AROUND. DEFINITELY WORTH KEEPING THE SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR
SLIDING IN ONCE AGAIN ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINING EXTENDED...WENT WITH A
CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS AS THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE
SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERNS AND TIMING OF FEATURES AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THIS CONSENSUS WOULD SUGGEST SEVERAL PERIODS OF INTERMITTENT
RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND ALONG WITH
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE SE SHOULD RESULT IN FOG AND SOME
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AT KSAW WHICH IS CLOSER TO
THE ARRIVING MOISTURE POOL AND DUE TO BETTER UPSLOPING. AT
KSAW...EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A PERIOD OF LIFR
CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE. A PERIOD OF MVFR VIS IS EXPECTED AT KCMX
AROUND SUNRISE...BUT KIWD WILL PROBABLY STAY VFR WITH A DOWNSLOPE
WIND THRU THE NIGHT. FOG/STRATUS WILL BURN OFF IN THE
MORNING...RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING FROM MID MORNING
INTO THE EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE PATCHY ACROSS THE LAKE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...07



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