000
FXUS63 KMQT 231924
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
324 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 729 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

INCREASING CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTH...WITH THE MID TO LOW
CLOUDS PUSHING IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. EVEN THE SMALL SCALE/LOCAL FCST MODELS DID NOT PICK THIS
UP WELL. THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT WITH STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW...EXPECT THEM
TO STICK AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS OVER THE NORTHERN
REACHES OF THE CWA.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS...WE HAVE BEEN
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON A FEW OF THE RIVERS OVER THE W HALF OF UPPER
MI...THAT HAVE BEEN RISING WITH OUR STEADY RAINS. THE RAIN CONTINUES
TO SHIFT TO OUR SE...AS OF 830Z SE OF A LINE FROM PEMBINE AND POWERS
TO GRAND MARAIS. EXPECT ALL BUT A LITTLE LINGERING DZ BY 12Z OVER
THE FAR EAST.

THE MAIN THREATS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE GUSTY N-NNW
WINDS TODAY AND FROST/FREEZE OVERNIGHT. THE INCREASED PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE EXITING SFC LOW STRETCHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TO S QUEBEC...AND STRONG HIGH SINKING IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA
WILL KEEP GUSTS IN THE 20-25KT RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT
THE STRONGER WINDS TO DIMINISH W TO E THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

IF WE DID NOT HAVE AS MUCH RAIN AS WE HAVE HAD SINCE MAY 19TH...AND
HIGH TEMPS WERE GOING TO BE A BIT WARMER...TODAY MAY HAVE BEEN
CONSIDERED A FIRE DAY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 40S NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR...WHILE IN THE 50S WELL INLAND. PW VALUES IN ALL THE COLD
DRY AIR WILL FALL TO AROUND 20-25 PERCENT OF NORMAL /OR AROUND
0.2IN/ OVER W AND CENTRAL UPPER MI BY 18Z TODAY...WITH RH VALUES
BOTTOMING OUT 25-30 PERCENT OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF.

AS FOR TONIGHT...THE LOWEST TEMPS TO BE OVER THE TYPICAL COOL
LOCATIONS OF THE INTERIOR W HALF OF UPPER MI. UNDER A STRONG
INVERSION...LIGHT WINDS SHOULD HELP SFC TEMPS FALL INTO THE LOW 20S.
ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SHORES TEMPS IN THE MID 30S WILL
BE MORE COMMON. PW VALUES WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY...UP TO AROUND 40
PERCENT OF NORMAL BY 12Z /OR AROUND 0.3IN/. IT/S THE PERFECT TIME TO
REMEMBER THAT NORMAL LOWS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW 40S FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR...AND FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE COMMON. WE WILL OFFICIALLY
BEGIN OUR FROST/FREEZE HEADLINE PROGRAM ON MAY 27TH. UNTIL THEN THE
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE FORECAST AND IN THE
HWO.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF A 500 MB TROUGH IN THE ERN U.S.
WITH A CLOSED 500 MB LOW AND TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NW AND A RIDGE
BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. 12Z FRI. TROUGH IN THE
EASTERN U.S. MOVES SLOWLY THE THE EASTERN SEABOARD 12Z SAT WITH THE
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS AND THIS REMAINS INTO 12Z SUN.

INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE MODELS KEEP TRYING TO GENERATE SOME
PCPN ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT OVER THE WESTERN CWA. LOOKS LIKE THE
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A JET STREAK IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
THINKING IS THAT MOISTURE WILL BE HARD TO COME BY WITH THE SFC RIDGE
IN PLACE AND DRY AIR WILL WIN OUT...SO CONTINUED THE DRY FORECAST
FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THINK THE MODELS MIGHT BE OVERDONE WITH
THEIR MOISTURE AND WITH THE JET STREAK NEAR THE AREA...WILL SEE SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INSTEAD. DID GO SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR HIGH
AND LOW TEMPERATURES FOR FRI AND SATURDAY BASED ON MIXING 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE SFC. AT BEST...THIS GIVES ME LOWER 60S FOR
HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND LOWERED A FEW DEGREES FROM GOING FORECAST
BASED ON THIS AND ALSO THE COLD START TO THE MORNING ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SET UP FOR FRI NIGHT AND
SAT NIGHT WHICH WOULD ARGUE FOR LOWER TEMPERATURES WITH THE LIGHT
WINDS. OTHER THAN THAT...KEPT FORECAST DRY AND KEPT SOME FROST IN
THE FORECAST EVEN THOUGH FROST AND FREEZE PRODUCTS ARE NOT DONE YET
WITH GROWING SEASON NOT REALLY STARTING UNTIL AFTER MEMORIAL DAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF ALL SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH IN THE
PACIFIC NW AND ONE OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH A CLOSED LOW THERE AND A
RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS 12Z SUN. THE RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY 12Z MON. PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR
12Z TUE INTO 12Z WED EXCEPT THAT A SFC WARM FRONT HEADS SLOWLY NORTH
TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS PERIOD WILL ALSO START A SLOW WARMING TREND
WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL GOING TO NEAR NORMAL TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z WED.
WITH THE WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA...CHANCES FOR PCPN START TO
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WEST AND THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
BY TUE NIGHT. WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO VERY LOW CHANCE POPS AS
THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

STRONG WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KNOTS ALONG WITH LINGERING LOW CLOUDS
WITH CEILINGS AROUND 1500-2000FT WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUES THIS TAF
PERIOD.  THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AS THE LOW OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.  THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWER LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
WILL LINGER THROUGH ROUGHLY 20-21Z BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING AT
EACH TAF SITE. THIS TREND HAS BEEN NOTED THROUGH SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AS WELL AS THROUGH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
VISIBILITY SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR EACH TAF
SITE. A FEW SNOW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER THEY WILL HAVE ONLY
MINOR IMPACTS ON VISIBILITY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT LOOSENS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. DRIER AIR
WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING ANY LINGERING FOG TO
DISSIPATE. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EXPECT WINDS LESS THAN 20 KTS ON
LAKE SUPERIOR. LIGHTER WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KF
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...07