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000
FXAK67 PAJK 220608 CCA
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
252 PM AKDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system will move into the southeast
gulf and slowly drift toward Baranof Island through Sunday
increasing winds and seas.


&&

.SHORT TERM...A low pressure system and front is affecting the
weather this evening across the panhandle producing cloudy skies
and showers with isolated thunderstorms occurring at times across
portions of the southern panhandle this afternoon and evening.
the low pressure system will move northward with a low pressure
trough trailing near the coast tonight. Showers will continue
across the panhandle through early next week with another low
pressure system advancing across the gulf toward the panhandle.
The low pressure system will maintain cloudy skies and a wet
weather pattern across the panhandle. There continues to be some
inconsistency with the models location of the low pressure system
on Monday.



.LONG TERM...Monday through Saturday...A very active and wet
pattern appears ready to set up through the next week. We`ll
start off with a shortwave developing Monday over the western
gulf out of a parent trough positioned over the Bering Sea and
western coast of mainland Alaska. Originally, there was quite a
bit of model uncertainty regarding the surface low that develops
with this feature. However, the GFS and Canadian runs from 00Z
this evening are agreeing more with the ECMWF solution, which has
also had more run to run consistency. According to the models, the
surface low will develop out of the south-central gulf and lift
northeast across the panhandle late Monday into Tuesday. An
associated weather front with this system will also lift north
beginning Monday, bringing some stronger winds and increased
precipitation across the panhandle. Due to a more southerly
origin with this low, we`ll expect it to be more subtropical in
nature, so we should see the snow level rise with the passing of
this system.

After Tuesday, models are still having a tough time agreeing on
the development of certain surface features, so we opted not to
change much of the forecast after this point, using mainly WPC
guidance for any consistency changes.

We`re also monitoring the extratropical transition of Typhoon Lan
over the course of the next week. Models currently hint at a very
wet event for our area late in the week, mainly Thursday into
Friday, but as far as who will get the more significant amounts of
precipitation is still to be determined.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-041>043.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-022-032>035-051-052.

&&

$$

BM/Voveris

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