Tropical Weather Discussion
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000 AXNT20 KNHC 292334 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2330 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 06N11W TO 01N20W TO 02S28W. THE ITCZ IS COMPLETELY S OF THE EQUATOR REACHING THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 05S35W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH OVER SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 33N80W. WITH THIS...A SLIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA WITH FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS OVER THE ATLANTIC REACHING THE CARIBBEAN AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 21N74W TO 19N79W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AFFECTING E CUBA...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND HISPANIOLA. A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM THIS BOUNDARY INTO THE ADJACENT WATERS N OF HONDURAS FROM 19N79W TO 17N86W. NW OF THE SHEAR LINE...GENTLE TO MODERATE NE FLOW IS DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA WHILE A SLIGHT E FLOW PREVAILS SE OF THE LINE. SLIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES CONTINUE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN EXCEPT S OF 15N BETWEEN 67W-72W WHERE A MODERATE BREEZE PREVAILS AFFECTING THE WATERS N OF COLOMBIA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SHEAR LINE TO WEAKEN BECOMING DIFFUSE. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE DAY AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THEN INCREASING TO STRONG DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH MID WEEK. ELSEWHERE...SLIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED. HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES OVER E CUBA ENHANCING CONVECTION. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT CONVECTION IS STILL EXPECTED AS MOISTURE AND WIND CONVERGENCE PREVAIL. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH LOCATED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 33N80W. TO THE E...THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N61W TO 21N74W. SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS N OF 25N BETWEEN 63W-72W. A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED E OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR 33N49W. TO THE E OF THIS FEATURE...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE AS A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N44W TO 26N42W TO 23N41W. SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF 21N BETWEEN 38W- 41W. A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN CENTERED NEAR 39N21W. LOOKING AHEAD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE BUILDING ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING E WHILE WEAKENING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NW ATLANTIC AND SUPPORT THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONT ENHANCING CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA

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