Tropical Weather Discussion
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000 AXNT20 KNHC 250554 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave in the east Caribbean extends along 64W from 15N to inland over South America moving west-northwest 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection. Tropical wave in the central Caribbean extends along 72W south of 16N to inland over South America moving west-northwest near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 10N14W along 7N20W to 7N31W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 7N41W 6N47W to near 8N53W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are within 90/120 nm along the coast of Africa between 7N-11N. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper ridge is anchored over the central Gulf near 23N92W covering the Gulf west of 88W to inland over the southeast CONUS and Mexico including the Yucatan peninsula. A surface trough, remnants of tropical wave, is over the west Gulf from 26N95W to the Bay of Campeche near 19N95W. Isolated showers and possible thunderstorms are south of 27N between 93W and the coast of Mexico. The diurnal surface trough has again developed over the Yucatan peninsula generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south 21N east of 94W to inland over Mexico and the Yucatan. A small cutoff upper low is over the southeast of Gulf near 23N86W with a small upper ridge over the Straits of Florida near 24N81W covering the remainder of the Gulf. A surface trough has developed at 25/0300 UTC extending from 24N83W through the Yucatan Channel to 19N86W generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the Straits of Florida south of 24N to over Cuba between 80W-84W. A surface ridge covers the north Gulf extending from the west Atlantic across central Florida to a 1018 mb high near 27N88W, then continues to 28N94W. This is giving the remainder of the Gulf clear skies and tranquil conditions tonight. Surface ridge will persist into early next week. The surface trough in the west Gulf will move into Mexico by midday Saturday. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper ridge over the central Gulf of Mexico covers the Caribbean west of 84W. The small upper features over the southeast Gulf of Mexico and the Straits of Florida with a surface trough extending from 19N86W through the Yucatan Channel to 24N83W are generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the northwest Caribbean north of 20N west of 77W to over Cuba and the Yucatan. An upper trough over the west- central Atlantic extends a trough axis across the Mona Passage into the Caribbean along 15N73W to Central America near 14N84W covering the remainder of the Caribbean except the southeast Caribbean where an upper ridge covers the area anchored in the west Tropical Atlantic. This upper ridge is advecting moisture across the the far east Caribbean with possible isolated showers. The monsoon trough extends from Colombia across Panama and Costa Rica along 8N/9N generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of 13N west of 75W to inland over Colombia to south Nicaragua. Tropical waves will move across the south Caribbean and South America into early next week. Fresh to strong trade winds will persist across much of the central Caribbean into early next week. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers and thunderstorms that developed early this evening are beginning to dissipate with mostly clear skies across the Dominican Republic. The upper trough over the east Caribbean coupled with daytime heating will continue to generate showers and thunderstorms across the island through the weekend especially in the afternoon and evening hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper trough extends through a series of upper lows from the northeast Atlantic near 32N26W to a low 30N32W, 27N56W, and 21N66W then continues as a trough through the Mona Passage and into the Caribbean. A remnant surface trough is in the central Atlantic extending from 30N55W along 24N51W to 19N50W with isolated showers within 60 nm either side of the trough axis. A second weak surface trough extends from 23N44W to 18N45W. The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1037 mb high northwest of the Azores and a ridge axis extending through 32N58W along 28N73W across central Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. A weak front will move into the northwest waters early Sunday, then dissipate through Monday night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW

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