Tropical Weather Discussion
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000 AXNT20 KNHC 211118 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 09N13W TO 07N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 05N35W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 03N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-08N BETWEEN 18W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK 1016 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N85W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN FROM THE EASTERN MEXICO COAST NEAR 20N96W TO THE LOW CENTER THEN CROSSING THE N FLORIDA COAST NEAR 29N83W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILING N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFFECTING THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS AND GULF COAST STATES. A NORTHERLY MODERATE BREEZE PREVAILS N OF THE FRONT WHILE AN EASTERLY SLIGHT BREEZE IS OBSERVED S OF 26N. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE E PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH AXIS FROM 24N87W TO 19N88W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 85W- 87W AFFECTING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. AT UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS FROM S AMERICA ACROSS THE GULF PRODUCING WSW FLOW OVER THE AREA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE E INTO THE ATLANTIC WHILE THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT DRIFTS NORTH TOWARD TAMPICO MEXICO. ALSO EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ENHANCING CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF TO THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 24N87W TO 19N88W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 85W-87W AFFECTING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A GENTLE EASTERLY BREEZE IS OBSERVED ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT S OF 15N WHERE A MODERATE BREEZE IS PREVAILING. SHALLOW MOISTURE IS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. AT UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS FROM S AMERICA ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN PRODUCING A WSW FLOW. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO DRIFT W OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ENHANCING CONVECTION. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. HISPANIOLA... FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS. SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA REACHING THE ATLANTIC NEAR 30N81W TO 30N64W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS BOUNDARY. TO THE E...ANOTHER STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS S FROM A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 35N44W. THE FRONT IS FROM 31N41W TO 20N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF 22N BETWEEN 36W- 47W. A LARGE 1037 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 41N22W WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR LOW OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO TO ENTER THE W ATLANTIC ENHANCING CONVECTION AND FOR ITS STATIONARY FRONT TO PERSIST. EXPECT FOR THE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO CONTINUE MOVING N WITH ITS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENING BECOMING A SURFACE TROUGH WITH CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA

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