Tropical Weather Discussion
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000 AXNT20 KNHC 072343 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE JUL 07 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N19W TO 18N17W MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A GLOBAL MODEL INDICATED 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 15W-20W THAT IS PROGRESSING OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA THIS EVENING. MOST CONVECTION REMAINS INLAND ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF WEST AFRICA WITH SCATTERED MODERATE AND STRONG CONVECTION FROM 09N-18N BETWEEN 05W-14W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N66W TO 17N65W MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT. THE WAVE IS MOVING WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A CENTRAL ATLC MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 22N59W. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A 700 MB 30-35 KT LOW-LEVEL JET MAXIMUM TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N75W TO 18N75W MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITHIN VERY BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 72W- 82W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO 09N16W TO 10N29W TO 08N35W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N35W TO 07N43W TO 07N50W TO 06N54W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MAJORITY OF THE GULF BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N88W. WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NO EXTENSIVE DEEP MOISTURE BASIN-WIDE...VISIBLE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS MOSTLY INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGING HOLDS ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE NE GULF NEAR 29N86W. MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH E TO SE WINDS GENERALLY PREVAIL AROUND THE RIDGE AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE HIGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE NE GULF WATERS. CARIBBEAN SEA... WITH THE PRESENCE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE NW CARIBBEAN AND PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. EAST PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN PROVIDING FOCUS WITHIN WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 16N W OF 75W. WITH THE APPROACH OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 75W...THE PROBABILITY OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY ALOFT DUE TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN VENEZUELA AND TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. OTHERWISE...THE PRIMARY IMPACT ACROSS THE BASIN REMAINS AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES S OF 17N BETWEEN 68W-82W THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AHEAD. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY...A FEW LATE EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING DUE TO EARLIER PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY... HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS ALOFT CONTINUE TO REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY WITHIN WESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLAND NEAR 25N72W. LIFTING DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ARE ALSO LIKELY ANOTHER FACTOR IN THE CONVECTION OCCURRING THIS EVENING. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SLOWLY DRIFTING WEST...IT IS LIKELY A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF TODAY FOR WEDNESDAY WITH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE CAROLINAS NEAR 35N74W SW TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 28N82W. AMPLE MID-LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTLINES. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INLAND THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. TO THE SOUTHEAST...A FAIRLY BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N72W THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 66W-76W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC AND WESTERN CENTRAL ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N67W. FINALLY...THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STATIONARY 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N38W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN

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