Tropical Weather Discussion
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000 AXNT20 KNHC 072340 AAA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SUN FEB 07 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING 992 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N76W. A COLD FRONT IS FROM THE LOW TO 25N74W TO 22N77W. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST SUPPORTS GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 27N W OF FRONT WITH SEAS TO 18 FT. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO STORM FORCE N OF 29N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W BY 08/0000 UTC THIS EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 30N83W TO 25N86W TO 24N94W TO 22N98W. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 26N W OF THE FRONT TO 92W BEGINNING 09/0600 UTC. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE OVER THE ATLC WATERS ON TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N73W TO 27N77W TO 24N80W. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 28N W OF 68W BEGINNING 09/1800 UTC. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 05N08W TO 03N20W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 01N34W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04S-03N BETWEEN 33W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N93W. 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE NW GULF. THE SW GULF HAS 10-15 KT N WINDS...WHILE THE E GULF AND FLORIDA HAS 15-25 N WINDS. A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION REMAINS OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WNW FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH BROKEN UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE SW GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO DISSIPATE AND A COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE NE GULF AND N FLORIDA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA NEAR 22N77W TO NE NICARAGUA ALONG 17N82W 14N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE FRONT. 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE E OF 77W WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N NW VENEZUELA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND COSTA RICA. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...BELIZE...AND GUATEMALA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE NICARAGUA NEAR 14N85W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO DRIFT SE WITH SHOWERS. ...HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OF SE WINDS ARE MAINLY OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH HAITI FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. THIS MAY BRING CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS TO HAITI LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N71W TO 25N72W TO E CUBA NEAR 22N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE W ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. A 1032 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 35N30W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 33N76W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 28N BETWEEN 60W-72W. ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 24N28W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE RAPIDLY E WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT ON TUE FOR ANOTHER GALE TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA

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