Tropical Weather Discussion
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000 AXNT20 KNHC 231733 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave in the Tropical Atlantic extends from 18N51W to 10N54W moving west-northwest 10 to 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a broad 700 mb trough and is embedded within a surge of moisture. Wave is at the base of a narrow upper trough which is generating scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 10N-12N between 54W-56W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa to the coast near 8N13W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 9N39W 8N46W to 10N49W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from 3N-8N between 11W-20W, from 3N-12N between 20W-36W, and from 7N-10N between 5W-54W. A broad upper ridge extends east/west across the Tropical Atlantic enhancing scattered moderate with clusters of isolated strong convection from 10N- 17N between 38W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... An upper ridge covers the Gulf this afternoon anchored in the east Pacific region and extending an upper ridge axis across south Mexico near Veracruz to over the CONUS near the lower Mississippi Valley. A surface trough remains in the southwest Gulf extending from 22N97W along 20N95W to 18N93W with scattered showers southwest of the surface trough. A surface ridge is dominates the remainder of the Gulf in the wake of the recent frontal passage anchored by a 1029 mb high over Alabama with a weaker 1023 mb high over northeast Mexico. Strong subsidence and dry, stable air covers the Gulf east of 90W. This is giving the east Gulf with remarkably clear skies this afternoon. Cold air stratocumulus clouds are over the west Gulf. The surface trough over the southwest Gulf will linger through midweek. High pressure over the remainder of the Gulf will be replaced by a stronger surface ridge that will build southwest from the eastern seaboard of the CONUS over the east Gulf beginning Tuesday afternoon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The deep layered trough over the west Atlantic extends south into the northwest Caribbean north of 17N between 72W-83W supporting a cold front that enters the basin across central Cuba near 22N80W to over the Yucatan peninsula near 21N87W. Strong subsidence and dry, stable air are north of the front. A remnant surface trough extends from the west Atlantic through the Windward Passage to the east tip of Jamaica generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 90/120 nm either side of the surface trough with isolated showers within 120 nm of a line from 12N82W to 18N77W. Upper level ridging extends across Central America and into the Caribbean near 13N84W along 15N72W then northeast across Puerto Rico into the central Atlantic. The monsoon trough is south of Panama in the east Pacific region generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the southwest Caribbean south of 12N west of 78W to inland over Parana into southeast Nicaragua. The remainder of the Caribbean is under mostly clear skies this afternoon. The cold front will drift southeast extending from Hispaniola to northeast Honduras by Monday morning where it will become stationary then dissipate through early next week. The tropical wave will enter the east Caribbean Tuesday night. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms dot the island this afternoon mainly west of 70W. This is due to lingering moisture coupled with the close proximity of a remnant surface trough enhancing orographic lifting. The cold front is expected to move to over the island bringing an increase chance of showers and thunderstorms as the cold front stalls across the island early Monday. Lingering moisture will continue the chance of showers into early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A deep layered trough extends over the west Atlantic into the northwest Caribbean covering the area west of 65W and supporting a cold front that extends through 32N64W across the central Bahama Islands then into the northwest Caribbean over central Cuba near 22N78W. Isolated showers are possible along the frontal boundary. A remnant surface trough extends from 26N62W along 23N67W then into the Caribbean through the windward Passage. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 120 nm east of this surface trough. A surface ridge covers the central Atlantic anchored by a 1030 mb high well north of the discussion area. An upper trough over the northeast Atlantic is supporting a cold front that enters the east Atlantic near 32N10W through the Canary Islands along 26N26W to 28N38W. Little moisture and thus limited shower activity is associated with this front. The west Atlantic cold front will become stationary from 32N58W 25N61W to Hispaniola near 20N70W by Monday morning. The south portion of the front will dissipate early next week as the north portion of the front transitions back to a cold front midweek and a strong high pressure builds off the eastern CONUS. 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