Tropical Weather Discussion
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972 AXNT20 KNHC 271806 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 206 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING... Gale force winds are in the northern semicircle of a broad area of low pressure anchored by a 1007 mb low centered near 23N69W. Seas in this region range from 11 to 17 ft. Gale conditions are forecast to continue the next two days shifting to the west semicircle as the low moves northeast Wednesday. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia Africa near 06N11W SW to 03N17W. The ITCZ then continues from there to 01N20W to 01N38W to the coast of northern Brazil near 01N50W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is within 150 nm north of the ITCZ. Scattered moderate convection is south of the ITCZ to 04S west of 20W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... In general, low pressure dominates over the western half of the basin while ridging extends from the SW Atlc across Florida into the eastern Gulf. This synoptic pattern provides gentle to moderate return flow. Even though there is a diffluent wind pattern mostly in the middle levels, both CIRA LPW imagery at the lower levels and water vapor imagery show very dry conditions across the entire basin, which is favoring fair weather. No major changes are expected within the next two days. CARIBBEAN SEA... A relaxed pressure gradient in the Caribbean supports gentle to moderate trades basin-wide. CIRA LPW and water vapor imagery show very dry conditions in the low and middle levels across the central and western Sea, which is favoring fair weather conditions. However, over the eastern basin there is abundant moisture being advected from the tropical Atlantic. This moisture along with a surface trough just north of Puerto Rico supports showers mainly across the northern and northeastern portions of the Island. No major changes are expected within the next two days. HISPANIOLA... Low and upper level dry air continue to support fair weather across the Island. However, the proximity of a broad area of low pressure to the north of the Island in the SW N Atlc may lead to the development of shallow convection late this afternoon and in the evening. The low will move NE within the next 24 hours, which will re-establish fair weather conditions. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The main concern in the Atlantic is an area of broad surface low pressure NE of the Bahamas with gale force conditions. This low is being supported by a middle level cyclone and associated trough extending south across the central Caribbean. The low is centered near 23N69W from which a warm front extends along 28N67W to 27N60W to 25N54W. Moisture inflow from the tropical Atlc by SE flow along with diffluence aloft support scattered moderate convection and isolated tstms N of 25N between 58W and 68W. For further details see the special features section. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos

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