Tropical Weather Discussion
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868 AXNT20 KNHC 251759 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends from 18N30W through a weak 1012 mb low near 14N31W to 9N31W moving west 10 to 15 kt over the past 6 hours. Wave coincides with a well defied 700 mb low/trough as depicted in the global models and within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection. Tropical wave in the west Tropical Atlantic extends along 57W/58W from 10N-21N moving west near 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models and within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep convection. Scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are within 120 nm of a line from 20N57W to over the Lesser Antilles to near 16N62W. Tropical wave over the southwest Gulf of Mexico extends from 21N96W across Mexico into the east Pacific region moving west near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 45 nm along the coast of Mexico from Veracruz and Tampico. Wave exited the Gulf waters at 25/1500 UTC. Please see the east Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical Atlantic near 15N17W and continues along 8N32W to 8N45W where the ITCZ begins and continues to South America near 8N59W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm south of the monsoon trough between 18W-21W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are within 250 nm along the coast of Africa from 6N-14N, within 200 nm south of the monsoon trough between 27W-38W, and from 6N-10N between 51W-59W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper ridge is anchored over central Texas extending a ridge axis southeast over the south Gulf of Mexico to the Yucatan peninsula. An upper low is centered over the east Gulf near 26N84W extending an upper trough northwest to over southeast Louisiana supporting a surface trough that extends from 1014 mb low along the coast of southeast Louisiana near 29N90W to 27N84W. This is generating scattered to numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms are within 330 nm south of the surface trough and north of 26N between 90W-95W. Isolated showers and possible thunderstorms cover the area north of the surface trough and east of 84W to the Florida coast. The surface trough and upper trough will gradually shift northwest through Tuesday night. The surface ridge will shift back across the north Gulf Tuesday night through midweek. A thermal trough will move off the west coast of the Yucatan peninsula each evening through midweek. CARIBBEAN SEA... An inverted upper trough extends from a an upper low near 13N78W across east/central Cuba into the southwest Atlantic supporting a surface trough that extends from 17N77W through the Windward Passage to over the Turks and Caicos to near 23N71W. This is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 120 nm northwest of the surface trough. The monsoon trough extends from Colombia across Costa Rica along 9N/10N generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of 11N between 78W-82W. Isolated showers are possible within 90 nm of 16N between 67W-83W. The tight pressure gradient between the west Atlantic surface ridge and the lower pressure over South America is producing fresh to strong trade winds across the south-central Caribbean that will continue through the midweek. The next tropical wave will enter the east Caribbean this evening and is already giving the Lesser Antilles showers. The wave will move into the central Caribbean by midweek. ...HISPANIOLA... Afternoon Isolated showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are developing over the island this afternoon. Afternoon/ evening showers and thunderstorms are possible through tonight. Tuesday will see an increase in moisture across the island, thus showers and thunderstorms, as the tropical wave that will enter the Caribbean tonight moves across the island Tuesday through Wednesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper ridge anchored over North Carolina extends over the northwest Atlantic north of 27N west of 67W blocking the inverted upper trough that extends across east/central Cuba to 27N75W supporting a surface trough that extends from 23N71W across the Turks and Caicos through the Windward Passage to 17N77W in the Caribbean. Scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are within 150 nm northwest of the surface trough. An upper trough is north of the 31N between 55W-63W supporting a frontal boundary north of the area with a surface trough extending through 32N61W to 29N66W. Scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are within 75 nm east of the surface trough. Otherwise, high pressure dominates the remainder of the Atlantic with a surface ridge extending from a 1030 mb high west-northwest of the Azores through 32N46W along 28N55W to over central Florida. Surface ridge will persist through midweek. The surface trough over the southwest Atlantic/ Caribbean will drift west tonight through early Thursday. Fresh to strong winds will pulse off the north coast of Hispaniola each evening through midweek. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW

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