Tropical Weather Discussion
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000 AXNT20 KNHC 281158 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN... GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS FROM 10.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GALE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MONDAY MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 05N09W SW TO 02S20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 03S30W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02S41W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND FROM 06S TO 02N W OF 20W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY TWO 1041 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS S OF THE GREAT LAKES COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. AND EXTENDS S ACROSS THE GULF. THIS RIDGE IS PROVIDING NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 25 KT...HIGHEST ON THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 25N WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTER. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS OVER THE W ATLC WATERS BEING ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC...ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...DISSIPATING OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO W OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N91W. OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF...A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 27N97W TO 22N97W TO 19N94W. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE BASIN ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 25N AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. GOES-13 IFR PROBABILITIES DEPICT MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES OF FOG OVER THE EASTERN GULF E OF 85W AND OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA S OF 28N...THESE BEING CONFIRMED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. WITH LITTLE SUPPORT ALOFT...THE STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING LEAVING A SURFACE RIDGE AS THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. CARIBBEAN SEA... PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA N OF 18N SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS. HOWEVER...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR DOMINATES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN...INCREASING TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. ELSEWHERE...TRADES OF 10 TO 15 KT DOMINATE. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. ...HISPANIOLA... A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND...THUS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. THIS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB LOW N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION IS ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N69W SW TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 26N76W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W TO W OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS W OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...THE AZORES HIGH ANCHORED BY A 1037 MB HIGH NEAR 35N26W COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN AND SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER. WITH LITTLE TO NONE SUPPORT ALOFT...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE SW N ATLC SATURDAY AFTERNOON...LEAVING SURFACE RIDGING AS THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR

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