Tropical Weather Discussion
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000 AXNT20 KNHC 240558 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE 24-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT FROM 31N61W TO 26N71W...THEN A WARM FRONT TO A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 25N78.5W...AND THEN A COLD FRONT TO 23N82.5W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET WITHIN 120 NM IN THE NORTH- EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER. THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THAT IS WITHIN 120 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 75W AND 81W CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W FROM 13N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN 28W AND 35W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44W FROM 14N SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 45W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W FROM 18N SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 61W AND 64W. NUMEROUS STRONG THAT WAS IN VENEZUELA FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 62W AND 66W AT 23/2045 UTC HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MAURITANIA NEAR 17N16W...CURVING TO 10N19W AND 9N26W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N26W TO 8N32W 8N38W...TO 10N46W AND 10N54W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 15W AND 17W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN 28W AND 45W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 12N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...CROSSING FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N71W TO 28N74W. A SHEAR AXIS/TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 28N74W TO 25N83W...INTO THE CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS WITHIN 400 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N67W 27N75W 22N86W 19N94W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL U.S.A.... PASSING THROUGH MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ENDING NEAR THE COASTAL BORDER OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN COASTAL MEXICO. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N63W TO 28N68W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 28N68W TO 25N80W IN SOUTH FLORIDA...TO 24N88W AND 21N93W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W 27N66W 23N75W. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KHQI...KGBK... KGHB...KGRY...KATP...KMDJ...KDLP...KIPN...AND KIKT. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM MARATHON TO THE KEY WEST METROPOLITAN AREA. ...FROM THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA AND HISPANIOLA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING CENTRAL AMERICA FROM HONDURAS NORTHWARD...AND INCLUDING THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE IS A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS IN NORTHERN GUATEMALA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 84W AND 85W...AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 16N88.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM GUATEMALA NEAR 14N TO 21N IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BETWEEN 87W AND 94W IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF CUBA. THE 24-HOUR FORECAST POSITION FOR THIS LOW CENTER WILL END UP BEING RELATED TO THE FORECAST GALE-FORCE WINDS. PLEASE REFERENCE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR WIND SPEED AND SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 19N TO 24N BETWEEN 77W AND 81W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 22.5N75W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN AND AROUND CUBA...AND FROM CUBA TO THE BAHAMAS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS A LARGE MAJORITY OF THE AREA OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 19N51W TO 17N58W...TO 13N65W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N69W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 5N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 8N80W...AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...BEYOND SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL NICARAGUA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA... AND FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 81W AND 83W IN WESTERN PANAMA. WEAKENING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION AND REMNANT CLOUDS COVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL NORTH-TO-NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS PASSING ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA AT THIS TIME. THIS WIND FLOW IS ON THE EASTERN/ SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE HONDURAS-TO-ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. SOME DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE STILL COVERS HISPANIOLA. CLOUD CONDITIONS/PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE IN BARAHONA A FEW HOURS AGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE AREAS THAT ARE FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO LA ROMANA TO PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH THE CURRENT RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT LARGE SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA. AN ELONGATED NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO- CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE EVENTUALLY WILL PASS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL START OUT ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA EVENTUALLY IN ABOUT 6 TO 12 HOURS...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N45W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N TO 24N BETWEEN 41W AND 51W. A SHEAR AXIS IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 19N51W TO 17N58W...TO 13N65W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N69W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 45W THROUGH 32N TO 18N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 40W AND 52W...AND FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 56W AND 61W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 37W AND 50W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N27W TO 20N29W AND 14N36W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N31W TO 28N32W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE AND LOCALLY STRONG FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 23W AND 28W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 23N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 40W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT

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