Tropical Weather Discussion
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000 AXNT20 KNHC 221042 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 542 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 994 mb area of low pressure across the western North Atlc extends a cold front into the discussion area near 32N51W. The front continues SW to 26N55W to 21N67W. Near gale to gale force SW winds are occurring N of 26N within 180 nm E of the front. The gale force conditions are expected to move N of the area by 23/0600 UTC. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 05N09W to 05N12W to 02N17W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 02N17W to 01N23W to 02N35W to the Equator near 44W. Scattered moderate convection is S of 04N between 19W-28W...and from 02N-05N between 33W-36W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 03N-08N between 47W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A vigorous middle to upper level low is noted on water vapor imagery over portions of the SE CONUS and NE Gulf waters with the associated trough axis dipping southward a base over the Yucatan Channel region. The troughing supports a broad area of surface low pressure focused on a 1008 mb low centered in the NE Gulf near 29N85W with a cold front extending S-SW to 25N85W to the NE tip of the Yucatan peninsula near 21N87W. Numerous showers and scattered tstms are occurring E of the front to 81W. The convection is largely enhanced by strong middle to upper level diffluence. Otherwise...the western half of the basin is under the influence of gentle to fresh NW winds and surface ridging anchored across the SW Gulf waters and interior portions of Mexico with mostly clear skies prevailing W of 90W. Looking ahead...the cold front is forecast to move across Florida and into the SW North Atlc waters by Thursday morning. The next cold front is forecast to move off the Texas and Louisiana coast by Friday night into early Saturday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Overall the Caribbean basin remains under fairly tranquil conditions this morning with the exception of the eastern and far northwestern waters. A cold front lies to the N of Puerto Rico from 23N60W to 22N63W. A surface trough also extends from the cold front near 23N57W to 20N58W to 12N62W and provides focus for isolated showers across the Windward Islands. Mostly northerly winds prevail across the eastern Caribbean and Atlc moisture and cloudiness with embedded isolated showers are occurring N of 13 E of 70W. Across the NW Caribbean...a cold front is analyzed across the eastern Gulf of Mexico to the western region of the Yucatan Channel. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring NW of a line from western Cuba near 22N81W to the Gulf of Honduras near 16N88W. The front will introduce fresh to occasional strong W-NW winds through Wednesday night into early Thursday. Otherwise...dry and stable air aloft on NW flow coupled with gentle to moderate northerly winds are prevailing and expected to persist through Wednesday. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers are expected as persistent N-NE winds will continue to feed Atlc moisture across northern portions of the island that will result in these showers through Wednesday afternoon. An approaching cold front from the west on Thursday will increase cloudiness and probability of convective precipitation. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle to upper level low is centered across the central North Atlc near 33N56W that supports the Special Features 994 mb low centered near 35N55W and the associated cold front producing the near gale to gale force conditions. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring E of the front and E of a surface trough from 24N57W to 13N61W. The activity remains generally N of 12N between 46W- 57W. To the west...across much of the SW North Atlc...weak surface ridging anchored by a 1022 mb high anchored off the New England coast near 39N70W maintains gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds as an area of low pressure continues to develop across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. As the low pressure moves eastward through Wednesday night into Thursday...SE winds are expected to increase W of 70W. Finally...the remainder of the eastern Atlc is under the influence of another surface ridge anchored by a 1027 mb high centered across the Azores near 38W27W. The ridge axis extends S-SW from the high to 30N32N to 10N37W. For additional information please visit $$ HUFFMAN is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.