Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 252223
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
623 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and partly cloudy weather will continue into Tuesday. The
next chance for some light rain arrives Tuesday night into
Wednesday with a weak frontal boundary pushing through. At this
time the forecast is looking mainly dry and cool to round out
the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
620 pm update...

Current temperatures still running several degrees above
forecast so bumped up now and the next few hours. After sunset
still expecting temperatures to fall quickly with a dry air
mass as well as snow for half of the area. Mainly clear skies
this evening will give way to clouds and a marine layer toward
morning. Rest of forecast looks good after midnight and on
Tuesday.

215 PM Update...

Clear skies across the region today as high pressure remains in
control of the weather pattern. Temperatures have climbed into
the mid 40s for most of the region, with the normal hot spots
across the Twin Tiers reaching the low 50s, and normal cold
spots in the Catskills and Tug Hill remaining in the upper 30s.
Plentiful sunshine should warm the region a few more degrees,
with everyone reaching the mid 40s to low 50s by peak heating.

Mostly clear skies remain through the overnight as the ridge
continues to influence our weather. A low pressure system over
the upper mid west will slide to the NE through the western
Great Lakes. This will increase the pressure gradient between
these two systems and increase winds across the region,
especially west of I-81, with gusts in the Finger Lakes reaching
20-25mph. East of I-81, where the pressure gradient is weaker,
the normal cold valleys will see winds decouple and radiational
cooling will allow temps to fall into the low 20s in some spots.
Temps will range from the low 20s to low 30s across the area.
As the surface ridge moves to the NE, a SE flow is expected to
develop across the area during the early morning hours, pushing
an Atlantic marine layer into the Poconos and southern
Catskills. A deck of low stratus clouds should push their way
into the eastern Finger Lakes and Catskills by mid morning, but
the spring sun should help dissipate some of this marine layer
during the afternoon hours. Southerly flow combined with a slow
eastward advection of warmer air from the central US will allow
temps to climb into the upper 40s to mid 50s on Tuesday.

Tuesday evening/overnight will see a return of rain chances as
the low pressure system over the western Great Lakes moves NE,
pushing a weak warm front through our area during the evening
hours. Lift associated with this system will be mostly north of
our area, with the warm front and weak PVA providing enough lift
to kick showers off, with the best chance across the Finger
Lakes into Oneida county. Temps will be warm enough, upper 30s
to mid 40s, for p-types to be all rain, with amounts less than
0.15in expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
255 PM Update...

A large, and by Wednesday mature, upper-level system over the
upper Mid West will push a weak frontal boundary through the
Northeast and East Coast, bringing some rain showers across the
area. As of now, these showers look light in nature for the
majority of our area, but some deep southerly flow over NE PA
may bring some longer duration rainfall through Thursday
evening. Temperatures will decrease from the mid/high 50s on
Wednesday to the high-40s on Thursday as this front moves
through.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
255 PM Update...

The long term forecast through the weekend looks rather quiet
with some weak shortwaves moving through the area. There will be
chances for rain showers on Saturday, then mixed snow and rain
showers (for Central NY) and rain showers (for NE PA) Saturday
night as temperatures dip below freezing in Central NY.
Otherwise, high temperatures will be in the low- to high-40s for
the long term forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Clear skies and VFR conditions are expected across all terminals
through the overnight hours. A marine layer moving into the
region from the SE will bring Fuel Alt ceilings to AVP and BGM
after 13z, with MVFR ceilings at ITH. There are some signals for
MVFR at ELM, but confidence in the marine layer making it the
far west is too low to include it in the TAFs.


Outlook...

Tuesday night through Wednesday night...Occasional restrictions
possible in rain showers, especially during the day on
Wednesday.

Thursday & Friday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JTC/TAC
NEAR TERM...JTC/TAC
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...JTC


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