Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 220800
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
300 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Another hot day in store across Central AL today. Slightly more
clouds and increased coverage of storms could keep high temperatures
cooler than yesterday, but it will still be on the warmer side.
Increased moisture across the area will also lead to heat indices
once again nearing or exceeding 105 in some locations. Therefore,
have continued mention of heat in the HWO for today and issued a
Heat Advisory until 7pm for much of Central AL.

A surface low moves through the Great Lakes region Sunday and
stretches a cold front down through the Ohio River Valley. This
creates a subtle shortwave in the upper levels that moves through
the TN Valley Monday into Tuesday. Therefore, have increased PoPs
both Monday and Tuesday as extra lift could lead to increased
coverage of afternoon storms.

As we go into the second half of the week, scattered thunderstorms
are possible each afternoon with near-normal diurnal temperature
ranges. Troughing over the Eastern US with upper-level ridging over
the Great Plains will set up generally northwesterly flow across
Central AL. Models hint a stronger low pressure system moving into
Quebec that could send a cold front down into the Gulf States by
next weekend, but I`d like to see consistency in timing for a few
model runs before increasing PoPs above 40%.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

An isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out overnight through
early Saturday morning, but chances at any one terminal are too low
to include. Can expect localized fog and MVFR vis across the north
due to high low level moisture and local drainage/valley effects. At
MGM and TOI, given the amount of rainfall that occurred Friday
afternoon/evening, fog could become more widespread with vis
dropping below MVFR before sunrise.

Expect another day of scattered showers and storms tomorrow
afternoon, and have included VCTS.

14


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected for
the next several days. There are no fire weather concerns at this
time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     94  73  90  72  88 /  40  10  50  40  60
Anniston    93  74  90  73  88 /  40  10  40  40  60
Birmingham  94  76  90  75  89 /  40  10  50  40  60
Tuscaloosa  95  75  92  75  90 /  40  20  50  40  60
Calera      93  74  90  75  89 /  40  20  40  40  60
Auburn      93  73  89  73  88 /  40  10  40  30  60
Montgomery  96  75  92  75  92 /  40  20  40  30  50
Troy        94  73  90  73  89 /  40  20  40  20  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
for the following counties: Autauga...Barbour...Bibb...Blount...
Bullock...Chilton...Clay...Coosa...Dallas...Elmore...Fayette...
Greene...Hale...Jefferson...Lamar...Lee...Lowndes...Macon...
Marengo...Marion...Montgomery...Perry...Pickens...Pike...
Russell...Shelby...St. Clair...Sumter...Talladega...Tallapoosa...
Tuscaloosa...Walker...Winston.

&&

$$



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