Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 110452
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1052 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

.UPDATE...
For 06Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Through Tonight.

Surface high pressure stretches across the area from the southwest
this afternoon. Under sunny skies, temperatures have warmed into
the upper 40s to lower 50s outside of the areas where snow cover
has persisted. Looking at mid 40s along that axis across the
central portion of the area.

For tonight, Central Alabama will be between high pressure to our
south and a surface low dropping into the Upper Midwest.
Overnight lows will be the coldest where the snow cover
remains/was slowest to melt and where boundary layer winds are
expected to be the lightest - across an axis from the northeast
corner to near Demopolis and points southeastward. In this area,
mid to upper 20s are expected. Elsewhere, lower 30s are expected.

14

.LONG TERM...
Monday through Sunday.

A persistent longwave trough is expected to remain over Eastern
North America through much of the forecast period with a series of
fast-moving shortwaves rotating around it`s base. One such
embedded shortwave will move southeastward on Monday toward the
Ohio Valley, and deep-layer westerly flow ahead of the surface
cold front should lead to a mild afternoon across Alabama. Breezy
and colder conditions will follow for Tuesday behind the front as
surface high pressure moves into the region. Widespread 20s are
probable for lows on Wednesday morning as winds become light near
the surface ridge axis.

Dry conditions should continue as another moisture-starved front
moves through the region on Thursday. Forecast confidence
decreases to near zero for Friday and the weekend due to models
struggling with complicated interactions between numerous upstream
shortwaves. However, the general idea of height falls to our west
suggests that rain chances could increase during that time frame.

87/Grantham


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

VFR conditions expected throughout the period. A weak surface
trough approaches on Monday, but really dissipates. It does leave
a bit stronger pressure gradient, so southwest winds will bump up
to 6-8kts. A cold front moves through the area late Monday night,
just beyond the period. This will swing the winds to the northwest
after passage. No much in the way of clouds this period, but some
cloudiness may accompany the cold front.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Mild and dry conditions are expected on Monday. A front will bring
cooler conditions for Tuesday and Wednesday. There are no fire
weather concerns at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     25  57  35  47  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
Anniston    25  58  35  48  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  31  59  37  49  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  31  61  38  53  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
Calera      29  59  37  50  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
Auburn      27  58  38  51  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  27  62  38  54  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
Troy        28  62  39  55  29 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

$$


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