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000
FXUS64 KBRO 080958
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
358 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...COLD FRONT HAS TEMPORARILY
STALLED OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS. AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER COLORADO
BEGINS TO TAKE A LEFT TURN AND DIVE INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. AS A
JET MAX ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THE FRONT WILL RESUME ITS SOUTHWARD
MOVEMENT.

TODAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
00Z SOUNDING INDICATE A WELL ESTABLISHED CAP AT 800MB. MODELS
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THIS CAP AND DO NOT SHOW ANY EROSION UNTIL
TONIGHT ONCE THE FRONT ENTERS THE CWA. FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME
SHOWING A GRADUAL INCREASE OF POPS TODAY WITH ONLY SHOWERS MENTIONED
BUT THUNDER WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
OVERHEAD WITH WELL PLACED SOUTHWEST JET AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS TO
INCREASE MAKING FOR A MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY DAY. TEMPERATURES
STARTING OFF RATHER MILD WITH A STEADY CLIMB THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENTLY WARM WITH THE ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER WITH CURRENT FORECAST FOLLOWING THIS TREND.

SATURDAY NIGHT...CAP WEAKENS RATHER QUICKLY TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT SURGES SOUTHWARD. GOOD LIFT FROM THE FRONT AND MODEST
INSTABILITY WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. UPPER JET STRENGTHENS AND
DIVERGENCE INCREASES AS THE UPPER TROUGH DROPS INTO NORTHERN MEXICO.
YESTERDAY`S CREW BUMPED POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL NUMBERS AND DO NOT
SEE ANY REASON TO LOWER. PWATS EXCEED SEASONAL NORMALS AND DECENT
DIVERGENT FLOW SHOULD KEEP POST FRONT LIFT GOING WELL INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. DECENT RAIN AMOUNTS LOOK GOOD FOR EVERYONE. HPC QPF VALUES
RANGE FROM .3 TO 1 INCH SO CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME LOCATIONS SEEING
OVER 2 INCHES IN THE HEAVIER TSTMS. MILD TEMPERATURES IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT DO NOT FALL MUCH UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. A STEADY FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE NORTH AND DOWN
THROUGH THE 50S ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. NOT A
BARN BURNING FOR WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM NORTH AND 3 TO 6 AM SOUTH.

SUNDAY GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE WITH A STRENGTHENING
INVERSION. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE REGION WITH DIVERGENT FLOW REMAINING IN
PLACE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ABOVE 850MB. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN RATHER
HIGH WITH STILL A CHANCE OF THUNDER...ALTHOUGH DECREASING...WITH
SOME LINGERING MU CAPE. RAIN TO TRANSITION INTO A MORE STRATIFORM
EVENT IF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WEAKENS COMPLETELY. TEMPERATURES TO
BOTTOM OUT IN THE MORNING WITH LITTLE TO NO RECOVERY IN THE
AFTERNOON. TRENDED WITH THE COOLER NAM/MET NUMBERS.


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...THE H5 TROUGH WILL BE
BEGINNING ITS EASTWARD TURN SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SW FLOW OVERHEAD.
THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE TRANSITIONED TO A WEAK COASTAL
TROUGH...WITH GOOD CONTINUING CHANCES FOR RAINFALL. ENOUGH SFC
INSTABILITY COULD BE REMAINING AT THE SFC AND COLD AIR ALOFT FOR
RAINFALL TO SPARK SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY...MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE H5 TROUGH EJECTS EASTWARD LATE
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING QUICKLY AND SKIES
CLEARING TO THE WEST. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP PUSH THE NEXT COLD
FRONT THROUGH TEXAS WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH MINIMAL RETURN FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MUCH LOWER.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE 60S ON THURSDAY. SFC RIDGE
STRETCHING ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL ALLOW WINDS TO RELAX QUICKLY
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.


&&

.MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GOOD TO FAIR MARINE CONDITIONS TODAY BEFORE
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT PUSHES
TROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH NORTH WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. PLENTY OF RAIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH 20 KNOT WINDS AND SEAS
APPROACHING 7 FEET. WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY...WITH
WINDS BECOMING L/V MONDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
RELAX...FALLING TO 2 TO 3 FEET. SOUTH WINDS RETURN ON
TUESDAY...BUT REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY BELOW 10 KNOTS. THE NEXT
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
BREEZY NORTH WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  77  56  56  52 /  20  80  70  50
BROWNSVILLE          79  55  58  51 /  20  80  60  50
HARLINGEN            80  55  55  50 /  20  80  70  50
MCALLEN              80  52  55  51 /  20  80  60  40
RIO GRANDE CITY      82  51  56  51 /  20  80  60  40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   71  56  57  53 /  20  80  70  50

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

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