Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 212017
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
217 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2009

.DISCUSSION...A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE LOWER 48 STATES FOR THE UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD AS A STEADY
SERIES OF 500 MB SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO DIG ACROSS THE CONUS
REGION FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. A FAIRLY ZONAL PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FOR THE SHORT TERM ALLOWING FAIRLY
DRY AND BENIGN CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE CURRENT COOL AND DRY SURFACE HIGH OVER THE AREA WILL BE
STEADILY MOVING EAST ALLOWING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME MORE
E-SE RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND WARMING
TEMPS. THE NEXT MAJOR MID LEVEL TROUGH TO AFFECT THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AREA WILL DIG INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES LATE MON
CUTTING OFF TUES AND WED. THIS WILL PUSH THE NEXT MIDWEST COLD
FRONT THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TX ON TUES RESULTING IN THE NEXT GOOD
RAIN CHC FOR THE REGION. AFTER THIS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION AN
EASTERN PACIFIC CLOSED MID LEVEL BAJA LOW WILL FORM UP AND WILL
MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MEXICO DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. MEANWHILE AT THE LOW LEVELS AN E/NE
FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO THE SURFACE
RIDGING DOMINATING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. THIS COMBINATION
OF W-SW FLOW ALOFT AND THE E-NE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN GENEROUS CLD COVER DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK.
THIS BAJA LOW WILL EVENTUALLY OPEN UP AND WILL MOVE OVER NORTHEAST
MEX AND SOUTHERN TEX FRI AND SAT WITH YET ANOTHER BROAD 500 MB
TROUGH AXIS DIGGING INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF SOME SLGT CHC/CHC POPS AFTER TUES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL OVERRUNNING SITUATION. SHORT TERM
COMPARISONS BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET TEMPS/POPS LOOK PRETTY CLOSE
AND WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THIS OVERALL TREND. RUN TO RUN AND
MODEL TO MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH LONG RANGE GUIDANCE LOOKS ABOVE
AVERAGE AND WILL GO CLOSE TO MEX POPS FROM DAYS 3 TO 7 AND NEAR TO
A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MAX AND MIN TEMPS IN THE LONGER RANGE.
&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE PREVAILING TDA ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX. SOME HIGHER CIRRUS CLDS ARE
ADVECTING NWD FROM MEXICO AND WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD THRU THIS AFTN
WITH NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION INTERESTS. FAIRLY LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE OVRNGT AS HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL. ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THRU
THE NEXT 24 HRS.
&&

.MARINE...THE 1 PM OBSERVATION FROM BUOY020 INDICATES WINDS WERE
WEST NORTHWEST AROUND 16 KTS GUSTING TO AROUND 19 KTS AND SEAS WERE
AROUND 6 FT WITH A PERIOD OF 8 SECONDS. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THRU THIS AFTN ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. THE DAY BEGAN WITH SCA CONDITIONS DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS AND
SEAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY TAKE HOLD THE REST OF TDA THRU
MON. MARINE SC CLDS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE TO THE ESE THRU THIS
AFTN/EVE. THE LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL INTO
TNGT. WINDS WILL VEER NE TO E OVRNGT THRU SUN NGT AND REMAIN LIGHT
TO MODERATE. SE FLOW WILL RETURN ON MON AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
FARTHER EAST. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTN AND ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW SUN INTO MON. THE ONSHORE SE FLOW
WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN BY LATE MON INTO TUE IN RESPONSE TO A COLD
FRONT WORKING THRU NORTH AND CENTRAL TX. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SCEC TO POSSIBLY MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS. THE
FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH THRU THE COASTAL WATERS ON TUE. SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE FROPA AND
POSSIBLY PERSIST THRU WED.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  57  77  65  80 /   0   0  10  20
BROWNSVILLE          53  79  64  80 /   0   0  10  20
HARLINGEN            52  78  63  82 /   0   0  10  20
MCALLEN              53  81  62  83 /   0   0  10  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      53  81  60  82 /   0   0  10  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   59  76  64  79 /   0   0  10  20
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...60
MARINE/AVIATION...57
MESO...MARTINEZ





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