Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 300913
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
413 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. LATEST BRO VWP INDICATES A STRONG SOUTHERLY LLJ AT 48
KNOTS EVIDENT JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE. THE BRO 0Z SOUNDING SHOWS AN
ABUNDANCE OF DRIER AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH AN INVERSION AROUND
2400 FEET. THIS INVERSION ALONG WITH THE SOUTHEAST FLOW ADVECTING
GULF MOISTURE INTO THE LOWER LEVELS HAS ALLOWED LOW STRATUS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AROUND DAWN AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S THROUGH SUNRISE.

THE 500 MB LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY AS WEAK MID
LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD GRADUALLY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE DAY. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS WILL INTERACT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN
TODAY BUT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING BUT DO NOT EXPECT MORE
THAN 20 TO 25 MPH. PATCHY MORNING FOG ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS
WILL LIFT BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE WARMEST
LOCATIONS COULD SEE THE TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AROUND 90 DEGREES
TODAY...MAINLY NEAR RIO GRANDE CITY AND ZAPATA.

THE MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH MOVES OVER THE BAJA REGION TONIGHT.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AS THE WINDS BECOME LIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES STEADY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
INTO THE BIG BEND AND WEST TEXAS REGION TUESDAY. THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THEREFORE...WILL REMOVE POPS
ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. EXPECT A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN FOR
TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 80S...SEVERAL DEGREES
LOWER THAN MONDAY.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF A VERY WEAK 500 MB TROUGH RIDING OVERHEAD WITHIN A
NEARLY ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL GENERATE THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN
FACT...STORM PREDICTION CENTER PLACES THE BRO CWFA WITHIN A
GENERAL RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH 500 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND BUILDING FARTHER
NORTH OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...DRIER
WEATHER WILL RESULT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL STEADILY INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THAT
TIME...WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR RAINFALL OCCURRING ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHINESS
DEVELOPS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
THE STEADY DISSIPATION OF THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
LESSER CHANCES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY...BUT NOT COMPLETELY DRIER
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...BUT KNOCKED DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY REGARDING DAYTIME HIGHS FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...LATEST MARINE OBSERVATION PLATFORMS
INDICATE LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING. BUOY 42020 CURRENTLY SHOWS SEAS NEAR 3.9
FEET WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 18 KNOTS. EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH MID MORNING.
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE DUE TO INCREASING WINDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL INTERACT WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
PRODUCE STRONGER WINDS AND ROUGHER SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SMALL CRAFT
WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION FOR ALL OR PORTIONS OF THE
ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO WATERS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MOST
LIKELY FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE. THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY WILL POSSIBLY RESULT
IN ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AT THAT TIME...WITH MARINE
CONDITIONS IMPROVING SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  82  68  79  72 /  10  10  10  20
BROWNSVILLE          85  67  81  68 /  10  10  10  20
HARLINGEN            86  66  83  66 /  10  10  10  20
MCALLEN              88  67  84  70 /  10  10  10  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      89  67  86  69 /  10  10  10  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   80  68  77  73 /  10  10  10  20
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...CACERES-63
LONG TERM...TOMASELLI-66
MESO/WX4PPT...BILLINGS-58


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