Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 241023 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
523 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

.AVIATION...No changes were needed to the previous suite of TAFs.
Previous discussion follows:

MVFR is once again trying to waft into Deep South Texas and the
Rio Grande Valley with light surface winds in place. Tomorrow,
full VFR will prevail with a moderate onshore flow and higher
cloud decks. A mid-level disturbance over the western Gulf of
Mexico will finally bring scattered convection to the major
aerodromes during the afternoon hours, but will end with the loss
of heating around sunset, when MVFR may begin to return.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 349 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017/

SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday): The anticipated shift in the
weather pattern away from oppressively hot and persistently dry
begins today. Increasing precipitable water values will occur within
Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley today as 500 mb low
pressure with an associated inverted trough moves closer to the
western Gulf of Mexico. This pattern will lead to isolated
convection in the BRO CWFA this morning and scattered coverage this
afternoon. After a general loss of convection tonight for most areas
due to the loss of daytime heating, a better smattering of scattered
showers and thunderstorms is anticipated for Sunday as the deeper
tropical moisture persists and the mid-level low moves closer. With
the increased opportunity for rainfall and associated widespread
cloud coverage, temperatures are likely to be at near normal values
for a change.

LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Friday): Abundant moisture
with precipitable water values forecast between 1.8 to 2.10 inches
will prevail across Deep South Texas through the period. The
combination of a weakness aloft and abundant moisture will
support a chance of showers and thunderstorms through late week.
Some of this activity will be diurnally driven sea breeze
convection, but higher moisture moving north along the coast from
the southwest Gulf will provide late night and early morning
convection. Surface high pressure across the mid Mississippi River
valley will keep winds more from the northeast to east Sunday
night and Monday. Winds will veer to the southeast by Tuesday
night as surface high pressure moves farther east. Near normal
temperatures expected to continue through the forecast period due
to the increase in cloud cover and rain chances.

MARINE (Now through Sunday): Buoy 42020 reported south-southeast
winds around 16 knots gusting to around 18 knots with seas slightly
over 5.5 feet with a period of 8 seconds at 03 CDT/08 UTC. Mainly
moderate winds and seas are expected along the Lower Texas Coast
with leftover swell from Tropical Storm Cindy continuing to subside.
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution may be needed for a portion of
the Gulf of Mexico waters east of Padre Island today.

Sunday Night through Wednesday Night: High pressure across Plains
will support light to moderate northeast to east winds along the
lower Texas coast through Tuesday. High pressure moves east by
Tuesday night allowing southeast winds to return. Low to moderate
seas will prevail through through Midweek. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible at times across the lower Texas
coast waters through the period.



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