Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 250544 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
1244 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...High clouds will increase overnight as some upper
level moisture moves across the region around the edge of 500mb
ridge that is beginning to strengthen over Baja Mexico. These
high to mid level clouds will generally remain in place through
the period...with a CU field expected during the day and VFR
conditions prevailing. Light and variable conditions overnight will
give way to SE to E winds in the late morning and afternoon.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1021 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...The 00z BRO sounding shows plenty of dry air at the
lower and mid levels of the atms which is resulting in VFR
conditions this evening for all three RGV airports. A fairly dry
and stable 500 mb ridge will persist over the region over the next
24 hours which will maintain VFR conditions. The GFS/GFS LAMP and
NAM guidance all indicate only mid and high level clds with a
fairly light easterly low level flow continuing.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 248 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): Tranquil forecast
continues through the next 36 hours as modest H5 ridge slowly
shuffles to the west and surface high pressure remains across the
Gulf Coast. The surface ridge continues to push Gulf moisture into
south Texas at low levels, while daytime heating continues to churn
up the widespread CU field. The ridge aloft continues to keep drier
air in place generally from about 6000 feet upwards, which is
capping off any significant vertical development to the CU field
trapped underneath. This pattern hold firm through 36 hours, with
daytime CU field areawide the rest of today and again during the day
tomorrow, while tonight and tomorrow night will remain mostly clear.
Will continue with persistence for temperatures through the next 36
hours, with highs tomorrow in the upper 80s and low 90s, while lows
tonight and tomorrow night are in the mid to upper 60s.

Models are hinting at a tiny chance for showers late tonight/early
tomorrow morning. These are the result of instability across the
Gulf sparking a few showers offshore, which may drift inland into
the coastal counties right around dawn. Again, due to the lack of
vertical development due to the cap, any showers that do develop
will be very small and very isolated. Once the sun rises, any
remaining showers will dissipate.

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday): 500mb ridge across
northwest Mexico and the southwest United States Wednesday will
move eastward Thursday. Even though northeast winds aloft should
provide subsidence across the CWA...there appears to be enough
moisture across the coastal sections to warrant a slight chance of
showers through the rest of the week mainly across the coastal
waters as well as along the afternoon seabreeze. The 500mb ridge
across Texas is progged to become elongated through the rest of
the forecast period and a 500mb inverted trough/low is progged to
develop across the western Gulf of Mexico Saturday into Sunday.
Subsidence increases slightly Saturday before diminishing Sunday
and this will provide a slight chance of showers for the rest of
the weekend into early next weekend.

MARINE (Tonight through Tuesday night): Surface ridging across
the northwest gulf and no significant low pressure to the
northwest will provide only light southeast flow during the next
36 hours. Waveheights hovering around 3 feet currently weaken
slightly through the next 36 hours, but remain fairly consistent.
A few showers are possible overnight tonight and again tomorrow
night, but will be very few and far between.

Wednesday through Saturday...Light east winds will prevail across
the coastal waters Wednesday with surface high pressure across the
eastern United States coast. A broad area of low pressure is
expected to develop across the Bay of Campeche Thursday and winds
will back to the northeast as a result. The pressure gradient will
remain weak across the western Gulf of Mexico through the rest of
the week into the weekend. Light easterly winds should prevail
across the lower Texas coast Friday into Saturday. Seas offshore
will gradually build towards the weekend as the easterly winds
across the northern Gulf provide an increase in swells that will
move towards the lower TX coast.




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