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000
FXUS64 KBRO 091859
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1259 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...A COLD FRONT
MOVED THROUGH THE AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING CAUSING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN ITS WAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE COOL AND BELOW NORMAL UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
DRY WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR LAREDO. SOME
RAINFALL WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED LATE
WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. THE CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
SIGNIFICANT OVERRUNNING REGIME STILL POISED TO ADD HELPFUL
MOISTURE TO SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY. FINAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNT OF
0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES EXPECTED...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS NEAR THE COAST.
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE BIG BEND THURSDAY WILL SWEEP THE
SFC TROUGH FURTHER EAST...GRADUALLY DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES AND
CLOUD COVER ON FRIDAY. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A
PLEASANT DAY FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGHS STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
IN THE UPPER 60S. NEXT COLD FRONT POISED TO DIVE THROUGH TEXAS
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...SWITCHING WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH.
PRECIP WILL BE BRIEF/NEGLIGIBLE WITH MINIMAL GULF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED
TO BE MUCH COOLER THAN PRE-FRONT...BUT STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGIONAL AIRPORTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS
PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT SWEPT THROUGH THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LAGUNA IS
IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 846 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2010/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH
THE AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING CAUSING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY
NORTH WINDS IN ITS WAKE.  TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL AND
BELOW NORMAL UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  DRY WEATHER WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR LAREDO.  SOME RAINFALL WITH MORE
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST.  THE
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

LONG TERM...
LATEST MODEL RUNS DIFFER LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...INDICATING
CONTINUED WET AND COOL FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...BRIEF MILDER AND SUNNIER DAY FOR SATURDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH SUNDAY.

AVIATION...
MVFR TO VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGIONAL AIRPORTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE TO STRONG FROM THE NORTHWEST
TODAY BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.

MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING AS
STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
THAT SWEPT THROUGH THE LOWER TEXAS COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  45  55  48  54 /   0  30  50  80
BROWNSVILLE          44  59  47  53 /   0  30  50  80
HARLINGEN            40  57  44  51 /   0  30  50  80
MCALLEN              44  52  45  52 /   0  30  50  80
RIO GRANDE CITY      43  50  41  49 /   0  30  50  80
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   45  59  49  58 /   0  30  50  80

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-
     135.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ150-155-
     170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

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