Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 251954

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
254 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday night): Zonal flow will continue
locally during the next 36 hours as a fast moving secondary H5
trough sweeps across the central plains. What`s left of a weak
cold front stalled across the northern ranchlands, bringing light
north winds, but drier air remained further north. Southeasterly
flow will reestablish tonight, keeping llvl moisture in place.
Lows will fall into the upper 60s with generally clear skies. As
the trough passes by to the north tomorrow, surface low pressure
reflection will tighten the gradient between it and the large sfc
ridge across the Gulf of Mexico. This will bring breezier
conditions, especially right along the coast. Winds are not
expected to reach as high as Thursday and Friday, but will still
approach 20 knot in some locations.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday): A relatively zonal mid
level pattern will prevail on Monday, but it will become more
amplified through mid week as a sharp mid level trough digs south
over the West and becomes cut off over the four corners area on
Tuesday. The low will move slowly into New Mexico by Wednesday,
with an associated front moving west to east across Texas Tuesday
night, and a destabilizing diffluent mid level flow over North
and Central Texas. Most of the energy will be north of here, but
the front will eventually make its way into South Texas and
through the local area Thursday morning, but rain chances still
look rather meager. The opportunity for rain will be short lived
as dry air will move in quickly late Thursday, ushering in dry
weather and more moderate temperatures for Friday and Saturday.
Wednesday will be warm, with high temperatures in the 90s across
the region as low level winds begin to veer to south ahead of the


Now through Sunday night: Seas have relaxed this afternoon as
winds offshore continue around 10 knots. Another weather system
moving through North Texas and Oklahoma will bring a tighter
gradient for the Northwest Gulf by tomorrow, increasing winds to
15 to 20 knots. Current forecast for tomorrow would require a
small craft advisory for all marine zones, but would only be
needed during the daytime hours before winds decrease Sunday

Monday through Thursday: Stronger winds and higher seas will
prevail Tuesday night through Thursday, particularly offshore.
Southeast winds will be strong Tuesday night through Wednesday
night, with small craft advisory conditions possible on the Gulf,
though less likely or only marginally possible on the Laguna.
Winds will shift to northwest Thursday behind a front, but any
residual small craft advisory conditions on the Gulf will be due
to persistent Gulf swells rather than winds.


BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  70  86  71  85 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          70  87  71  87 /  10   0   0  10
HARLINGEN            68  90  70  89 /   0   0   0  10
MCALLEN              69  92  70  91 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      68  98  68  94 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   72  80  73  81 /   0  10   0   0




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