Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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106
FXUS64 KBRO 291049 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
549 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS MAINTAINED THEMSELVES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHILE SURFACE WINDS KICKED UP
TO NEAR MODERATE LEVELS. WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY WILL PRODUCE VFR
AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH SUNSET. THE APPROACH OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING DIMINISHING WINDS THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS ONCE AGAIN SETTING UP.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

SHORT TERM  /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...THE MOST RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS
INDICATES A COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. DURING THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD...THIS WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH A CLOSED 500 MB LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE APPROACH OF THIS FRONT WILL GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FOUR NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
BRO CWFA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT WILL HELP TO ENSURE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME HIGH/OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES ALSO DURING THIS PERIOD. FOR SATURDAY...THE FRONT
INTRUDES INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WITH THE
ENTIRE AREA UNDER A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. NO
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THOSE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. ALSO...
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER PLACING THE ENTIRE BRO CWFA ON A GENERAL
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...A SERIES OF 500MB
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRAVEL ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE FORECAST PERIOD
BEGINS WITH ONE MID LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH
ANOTHER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM
OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE NORTHEAST NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN WEAKENS AND BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE LATEST
GFS/ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF CERTAIN FEATURES EMERGE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT LINGERS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION
ON SUNDAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER /SPC/ HAS ALL OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO SURGE INTO THE REGION
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
THE ECMWF/GFS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. THE ECMWF IS FASTER AND MOVES THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON
MONDAY WHILE THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. ROBUST RAIN CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS MOISTURE POOLS ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS...WILL HOLD SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 14 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 16 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY
UNDER 4 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 7 SECONDS AT 03 CDT/08 UTC. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TODAY
AND TONIGHT DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTERACTING
WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
SLOW APPROACH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL IMPROVE WINDS ON SATURDAY...
BUT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY STILL BE NEEDED FOR THE GULF OF
MEXICO WATERS EAST OF PADRE ISLAND FROM 0 TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES
OFFSHORE DUE TO ROUGH SEAS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES ON THE GULF
WATERS DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM
     CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ130-132-135.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM CDT SATURDAY
     FOR GMZ150-155-170-175.
&&

$$

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