Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41

000
FXUS64 KBRO 312006
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
306 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED
WELL SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S...WHICH IS 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS AND BRUSH COUNTRY TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60 ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND ALONG
THE COAST. MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WHICH IS CLOSE TO NORMAL.
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE EAST ON SATURDAY RESULTING IN LIGHT
EAST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS TO THE LOW
TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT
INTO THE REGION BUT CAPPING FROM SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT SHOULD
HOLD BACK ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST STAYS LOW THROUGH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL GFS HAS BEEN STEADFAST IN PUSHING THROUGH
A RELATIVELY STRONG FRONT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH ASSOCIATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IMMEDIATELY ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT FOLLOWED BY RAPID DRYING AND A LITTLE COOLER WEATHER. HOWEVER
ALL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SLOWER THAN THE OPERATIONAL MODEL AND
THE ENSEMBLE MEAN IS CLOSER TO THE SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER ECMWF
SOLUTION WHICH CLOSES OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER TX/NM AND HOLDS THE
FRONT TO THE WEST MUCH LONGER. THE CMC IS ALSO SLOWER THAN THE GFS.

WITH THE JET PATTERN PRESENT ONE WOULD THINK THERE IS ENOUGH
MOMENTUM BEHIND A 125KT JET MAX ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO
KEEP THAT CLOSED LOW MOVING ALONG...ALTHOUGH ITS FORMATION SEEMS
PRETTY REASONABLE. AFTER TALKING WITH CRP AND EXAMINING WPC PRODUCTS
WENT WITH A SOLUTION THAT BRINGS A WEAKER FRONT ABOUT 12 TO 18 HOURS
SLOWER THAN THE GFS...WITH RAINFALL CHANCES A LITTLE MORE BROADLY
DISTRIBUTED AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE RESULT WAS LOWER...BUT
NOT QUITE AS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW. /68-JGG/

&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. BUOY
42020 IS CURRENTLY REPORTING NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 18 KNOTS WITH SEAS
OF 3.6 FEET. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT WITH LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS NORTHEAST WINDS MAY BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME DUE TO BELOW AVERAGE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE. MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FEET NEAR SHORE AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6
FEET OFFSHORE CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  64  78  65  81 /  10  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          62  79  63  82 /  10  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            59  79  60  82 /  10  10  10  10
MCALLEN              59  80  61  83 /  10  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      55  81  58  85 /  10   0  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   70  77  69  80 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

63/68





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.