Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 301454 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
954 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...HAVE MADE A NUMBER OF ADJUSTMENTS THIS MORNING TO
COVER CHANGES AND CONDITIONS. FIRST...HAZARDS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
AMPLE SUNSHINE AND HEAT FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND PROBABLY SUNDAY AS
WELL...HAVE HOISTED RIP CURRENT STATEMENT TO COVER THE THREAT FROM
A ROBUST COMBINED LONGSHORE/RIP SWELL THAT SHOWS UP NICELY ON
BEACH WEBCAMS AS WELL AS A SURF REPORT WITH UP TO 7 FOOT SURF
WAVES EARLIER THIS MORNING. CROWDS BUILDING EACH WEEKEND AND SURF
HAS WARMED CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES INVITING MORE SWIMMERS INTO THE
WATER...SO BEST TO BE ALERTED THAN NOT ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS IS
THE TRUE START OF THE WEEKEND BEACH SEASON FOR THE VALLEY.

WITH TIDES RUNNING 1.3 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED AT THE SOUTH BAY
ENTRANCE ON LAGUNA MADRE...AND ALSO NOTING CITY BEACH WATER LEVELS
UP BELOW THE DUNES BUT A LOT CLOSER THAN THE PRIOR WEEKEND...HAVE
ISSUED A STATEMENT FOR TIDAL RUN-UP AND OVERWASH PRIMARILY FOR
UNIMPROVED/UN-RENOURISHED PUBLIC BEACHES NORTH OF THE RESORT AREA
ON SOUTH PADRE...LIKELY EXTENDING UP THROUGH KENEDY COUNTY. THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH A MORE ORTHOGONAL SWELL DIRECTION
KEEPING THE BEAT GOING. WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE CENTERED AROUND
10 AM TO 3 PM...AROUND THE PEAK DAILY HIGH TIDE ON THE BEACH.

BEYOND THE HAZARDS: REMOVED RAIN CHANCES FOR TODAY. SATELLITE AND
SURFACE OBS SHOW THE WIND SHIFT HAVING REACHED THE LOWER VALLEY AT
930 AM...AND SHOULD EASE OFF THE COAST AROUND SOUTH PADRE BEFORE
NOON. COMBINE THE WIND SHIFT WITH BONE DRY AIR BETWEEN 700 AND 300
MB AND VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE TO MAKE MENTIONABLE RAIN SO HAVE
REMOVED. AS FOR THE HAZE...NOT SEEING MUCH OF A DEWPOINT DROP
IN THE POPULATED AREAS EVEN WITH THE NORTHWEST WIND SO HAVE KEPT
IT GOING BUT DID REMOVE ACROSS THE UPPER VALLEY/RANCHLANDS WHERE
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS/RH WILL CRASH AND CLEAN THINGS OUT SOMEWHAT.

WITH THE DRYING...HAVE NUDGED TEMPERATURES UP A HAIR ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS...AND CLOSE TO THE COAST AS WELL TO PUSH LOWER
90S IN THE HARLIGEN/RAYMONDVILLE AREA WHICH IS IN LINE WITH
GUIDANCE AND DRYING ATMOSPHERE FOR THE AFTERNOON. ALSO MORE
OPTIMISTIC WITH SKY COVER...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE MORNING
THROUGH SUNSET.
52/BSG

&&

.MARINE...SEAS CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH 7 FEET BEYOND 20 NM OUT BUT
WITH EAST/SOUTHEAST SWELL SAW NO REASON NOT TO ADD NEARSHORE
WATERS THROUGH 18Z /1 PM/. BEYOND THIS TIME? A BIT TRICKY OFFSHORE
AS ENOUGH SWELL MAY KEEP VALUES CLOSE BUT THE PROXIMITY OF WIND
SHIFT NEARSHORE SHOULD DIP COMBINED SEAS INTO THE FORECAST 5 FOOT
RANGE SO HAVE ENDED ADVISORY IN ALL WATERS THEN. STILL CAUTION
CONDITIONS AND WILL ADD HEADLINE TO UPDATED MARINE FORECAST COMING
OUT BEFORE 10 AM.
52/BSG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...BACKING WINDS CONTINUE TO BE EXPECTED TODAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE MOST DRAMATIC WIND SHIFT WILL LIKELY BE
AT MFE. MVFR CEILINGS ARE ALSO FORECAST WITH HAZE DOMINATING THE
VISIBILITY. TONIGHT...SURFACE WINDS BECOME MORE ONSHORE AS THE
WEAK COLD FRONT DISSIPATES. CEILINGS...HOWEVER...WILL REMAIN AT
MVFR LEVELS...AND LIKELY TO BE LOWER THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED IN
THE TAFS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE MOST RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS
INDICATES A COLD FRONT DRAPED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY TODAY...EVENTUALLY BECOMING STATIONARY OVER THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE BRO CWFA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST AS A RESULT OF THE INTRUSION OF THE COLD FRONT. THE
DISSIPATION OF THE FRONT TONIGHT...AND A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER...A TREND THAT
WILL PERSIST ON SUNDAY AS NO SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION IS NOT
ANTICIPATED WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT...AND WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW
LARGELY PREVAILING...WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME HIGH AND OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...A BROAD 500MB TROUGH
STRETCHING FROM THE WEST COAST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF ROCKIES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SURFACE RIDGING WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW ABUNDANT
MOISTURE TO SURGE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT.

THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF
THE PASSAGE OF THE LATE MONDAY COLD FRONT. BOTH MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THE BEST LIFT/CHANCE OF STRONGER CONVECTION WILL BE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES LINGER INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER /SPC/ HAS PLACED ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS UNDER A MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO
CONVECTION WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. THE MARGINAL RISK CONTINUES
FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO LINGERING CONVECTION IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF
THESE STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER THE AREA.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER AND WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 14 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 16 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY OVER
6.5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 8 SECONDS AT 03 CDT/08 UTC. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS EAST OF
PADRE ISLAND UNTIL AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING DUE TO ROUGH SWELLS
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
UNTIL SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING IF THE ROUGH SWELLS PERSIST. MORE
MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY WITH
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
PREVAIL ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
DUE TO WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS
LIKELY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE AND SEAS BUILD SLIGHTLY IN THE WAKE
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER THE AREA AND SHIFTS EAST.

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ170-175.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ150-155.

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  85  78  87  77 /  10   0   0  20
BROWNSVILLE          90  78  89  77 /  10   0   0  20
HARLINGEN            92  77  91  76 /  10   0   0  20
MCALLEN              95  78  94  76 /  10   0   0  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      95  76  96  76 /  10   0   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   81  78  84  77 /  10   0   0  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR TXZ251-256-257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR GMZ150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV



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