Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 180016 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
716 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...Convection has moved well away from BRO and HRL, but
showers persist within 10 miles of MFE, so will carry VCSH there
through 02Z. Thereafter, expecting VFR to predominate as lingering
showers dissipate into the early evening. Drier air aloft can
already be seen on water-vapor satellite imagery to have moved
into BRO and HRL vicinities and will overspread the remainder of
the area overnight, leading to minimal precip chances. VFR
expected to predominate for the next 24 hours. The sea-breeze
front may generate some weak showers around mid-day tomorrow, but
coverage is expected to remain too isolated for mention in the TAF
at this juncture.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 249 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017/

SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday night): Shower activity continues
to bubble up around the region due to midlevel inverted trough
bringing instability and deeper moisture. Activity should continue
through sunset, activating further along numerous outflow boundaries
seen on GOES16 and radar. Once the sun sets, heating instability
wanes and thunderstorm activity as a result. Have kept chance
showers for the upper valley through midnight to cover for evening
precipitation. Shower activity will become more confined overnight
into tomorrow as drier air pushes aloft pushes into the region. The
seabreeze will still try to activate a few showers during the
afternoon hours, but dry air capping will keep showers from growing
considerably, and will keep the rainfall amounts low. Activity wanes
again after sunset tomorrow.

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday): A mid-level ridge will sit
over the southern High Plains Wednesday. High pressure will remain
king over the Gulf as well, supporting a weak to mdt anticyclonic
southeast flow. A mix of clouds and sun and near normal to slightly
above normal temperatures look probable. Isolated Gulf showers will
stand up along the way, as will an almost daily sea breeze. Wed and
Thursday look like the best opportunities for slowly fading rain
chances. High temperatures will nudge up a couple of degrees moving
into the end of the week and the weekend. Low temperatures will
range from the mid 70s to near 80, while high temperatures will be
mainly in the 90s to near the century mark Wednesday, with peak
upper values creeping a few degrees above the century mark out west
later in the period, supporting associated heat index values up to
110 degrees.

Now through Tuesday night: Seas remain very tranquil today, with
swells running less than 2 feet across the northwest Gulf. Light
seas will continue through the next 36 hours as high pressure
remains firmly ahold of the northern Gulf and storm systems sweep
along the Canadian border, well away from influencing Texas. Main
marine impact will be the continued threat for showers and
thunderstorms tonight as deeper moisture taps midlevel

Wednesday through Saturday: Broad high pressure over the Gulf will
support light to moderate winds, mainly out of the southeast, and
low to moderate seas. Occasional marine convection will develop.




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