Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 240849
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
349 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RELEVANT FEATURES... ZONAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS
ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. VERY DRY AIR EXISTS
OVER THE AREA ABOVE ABOUT 1000 FT ABOVE THE GROUND. AT THE SURFACE
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS KEEPING VERY
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. VERY
PATCHY FOG IS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA...BUT IT IS DENSE WHERE IT
IS DEVELOPING AND WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR FOR SIGNS OF
MORE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT.

TODAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE SKIES SHOULD OPEN
UP QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME OF THAT DRIER NEAR SURFACE AIR
MIXING TO THE GROUND. THIS SHOULD PRIME THE AREA FOR WARM TO
APPROACHING HOT TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS UP TO AROUND 90
DEGREES IN ZAPATA COUNTY AND IN THE LOW TO MID 80S IN THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER VALLEY. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH ARE FORECAST BUT A WEAK
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY SET UP IN THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL REGIONS.

TONIGHT...ANOTHER CLEAR NIGHT IS FORECAST TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOWS SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S.

WEDNESDAY...A WEAK KINK IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW APPROACHES BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH THE WEAK MID LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH IT SHOULD DO LITTLE MORE THAN SLIGHTLY INCREASE LEE TROUGHING
AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING A MOSTLY CLEAR AND
AND WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S COASTAL AND UPPER 80S
INLAND. /68-JGG/

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER
WILL KICK OFF THE MID TERM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 60S
WILL BE NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESULT IN A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER
THE WEST COAST WHILE BROAD TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS.

AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ADVANCE SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE DEEPENING PLAINS
TROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL THEREFORE BE MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH
TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALSO...A MID LEVEL LOW WILL START TO CUT OFF
OVER BAJA...AND THE BACKING MID LEVEL FLOW OVERHEAD WILL BRING EAST
PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE ATMOSPHERE OVERHEAD AGAIN. SOME CONVECTION
MAY DEVELOP OVER THE SIERRA MADRES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH THE
SIGNAL IS A LITTLE WEAKER THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY...AND IF SO SOME OF
THE MOUNTAINOUS BASED CONVECTION COULD DRIFT INTO THE UPPER VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 60S
WITH CONTINUING LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND PATCHY FOG TOWARD MORNING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH
THE ECMWF AND GFS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON TIMING. THE 00Z GFS
ADVERTISES SLIGHTLY STRONGER NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE ECMWF THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. INCREASING CLOUD COVER MEANS THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE KEPT IN THE 70S. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH TO NORTHEAST BY
AFTERNOON BUT THE OVERALL FRONT WILL NOT PRESENT AN EXCEPTIONALLY
STRONG WIND FIELD. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO KEEP THE THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST
THURSDAY TO FRIDAY...WITH SUPPORT FROM RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION
JET DYNAMICS. LOW TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 50S
EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST.

A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY...AS
WELL AS OVER THE MARINE AREAS...WITH COOLER DAY TIMES HIGHS NEAR 70.
REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA.
CLEARING SKIES WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS DECREASING A
FEW MORE DEGREES TOWARD THE LOWER HALF OF THE 50 DEGREE DECILE.

THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE FORECAST LOOKS QUIET AGAIN...WITH MID
LEVEL RIDGING UPSTREAM...HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING OUT OVER THE AREA
TO PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT NORTH EAST
WINDS TURNING TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND A SLOW WARMING TREND
TO BRING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY BUT REMAIN LIGHT TO
MODERATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS SHOULD ALSO REMAIN LOW TO
MODERATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. BRIEF
LOW END SCA CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH FRESH
NORTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET. SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL OCCUR WITH AND AFTER THE FRONT
THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FRIDAY AND SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER TO
SOUTHEAST IN THE PROCESS WITH LOW...2 TO 3 FEET...SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  80  65  81  69 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNSVILLE          84  65  82  69 /   0   0   0  10
HARLINGEN            83  64  82  69 /   0   0   0  10
MCALLEN              86  65  84  69 /   0   0   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      90  64  88  68 /   0   0   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   77  66  78  68 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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