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000
FXUS64 KBRO 291737 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1137 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MORNING FOG HAS CLEARED TO VFR SKIES AND THAT WILL
REMAIN THE CASE THE REST OF THE DAY UNDER SCATTERED MID LEVEL
CUMULUS. STEADY SOUTHEAST WINDS KEEP UP THROUGH SUNSET. TONIGHT
WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. THE INITIAL SHIFT OF NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE PRETTY WEAK
THOUGH AND AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP ONCE MORE BEFORE DRIER AIR AND
STRONGER WINDS FILTER INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS FRIDAY. NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS FORECAST
DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. /68-JGG/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...PATCHY FOG CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE ELEVATED ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM
BECOMING DENSE AREAWIDE...BUT WILL REMAIN THICK THROUGH
MIDMORNING. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RISE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTHEAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...ONE MORE DAY OF TRANQUIL
WEATHER BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES. RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER TODAY...WITH CONTINUED HIGH CIRRUS
SPREADING THROUGH THE REGION. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL SLIGHTLY HOLD
DOWN TEMPERATURES RELATIVE TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...ONLY REACHING
THE UPPER 70S.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY.
ALOFT...THE LARGE H5 TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
EWD...PUSHING THE LOCAL RIDGE EASTWARD AND WEAKENING IT. THIS WILL
TURN WINDS ALOFT MORE TO THE SW. WHILE A COOLER AIRMASS IS NOT
PRESENT BEHIND THE SFC FRONT...THE SHIFT TO NELY WINDS AT THE SFC
WILL OPPOSE THE SWLY WINDS ALOFT...BRINGING MUCH THICKER LOWER CLOUD
COVER AND LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. THE PRECIPITATION WILL FOCUS
GENERALLY INLAND ALONG THE RIVER...BUT WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST. HAVE
HELD GENERAL 20 POPS FOR THOSE AREAS...WITH LOWER CHANCES CLOSER TO
THE COAST. DENSER CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN IN
THE UPPER 60S.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...EXTENDED PERIOD
REMAINS CHALLENGING TO SAY THE LEAST AS UPPER TROUGH/LOW WEST OF
THE BAJA OF MEXICO MOVES EVER SO SLOWLY EASTWARD NOT PASSING TO
THE EAST OF THE CWA UNTIL WEDNESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT ADDS TO
THE MIX LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

THE EXTENDED REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED WITH THE UPTICK IN RAIN
CHANCES AND THE COOL DOWN IN TEMPERATURES. MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH THE GENERAL TREND BUT DIFFER IN TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT AND THE START OF THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL POPS.

MOISTURE VALUES AND MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASES STEADILY AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS AND SUBTROPICAL JET MOVES OVER HEAD. AS
DRY AS IT HAS BEEN IT SHOULD TURN QUITE WET A BLEND OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF KEEPS POPS IN THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE SUNDAY-TUESDAY WITH
LOWER CHANCES SATURDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GFS INCREASES THE POPS ON
SUNDAY AS IT BRINGS A COLD FRONT TROUGH EARLIER THEN THE ECMWF.
THE EUROPEAN WAITS UNTIL MONDAY WITH COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING.

THE COLD FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT. TIMING DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH GFS ABOUT 6 TO 9 HOURS
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. GFS ALSO REMAINS STRONGER WITH THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION DROPPING TEMPERATURES UPWARDS OF 30 DEGREES IN A
12-18 HOUR PERIOD. USING A MODEL BLEND THE DROP IN TEMPERATURES IS
MORE GRADUAL BUT MONDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES TO STAY COOL INTO TUESDAY WITH A SLOW INCREASE
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT SE FLOW AND LIGHT SEAS CONTINUE
TODAY WITH ONE MORE DAY OF HIGH PRESSURE. CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE
FRIDAY MORNING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NE...BUT REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AN INCREASE IN SOUTHEAST FLOW FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM OVER
NW MEXICO. AND COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES TROUGH THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS
SUNDAY EVENING OR SUNDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY
THROUGH MONDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH OR LOW PRESSURE AREA THEN FORMS
OVER THE GULF MAINTAINING ADVERSE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  74  59  68  60 /   0   0  20  10
BROWNSVILLE          77  58  71  60 /   0   0  20  10
HARLINGEN            78  57  70  59 /   0   0  20  10
MCALLEN              79  58  69  59 /   0  10  20  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      79  57  70  59 /   0  10  20  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND  MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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