Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 211907
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
207 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night): The upper ridge
continues to build aloft across the area into the short term
period with a few perturbations within the upper flow. The
combination of this perturbation with abundance of moisture has
provided a favorable environment for isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms this afternoon along the coastal counties and
the RGV. These showers will continue to move northward at around
15 to 20 mph producing brief period of moderate rain shower and an
occasional lightning. Expect the activity to continue through out
the day providing a mix of sun and clouds keeping temperatures in
the mid to upper 90s with high humidity. A light Southeast flow
will prevail through the night with abundant cloud cover expected.
Expect another humid and warm night with temperatures in the mid
to upper 70s. On Sunday, as the ridge moves further E the gradient
will strengthen increasing SE winds in the afternoon. Lingering
moisture over the area and East of the Sierra Madre will favor for
convection Sunday afternoon mainly over the Western counties. Lean
toward 20 percent mainly along the W where the storms will begin
to develop. Rainfall accumulations will be less than a quarter of
an inch to half an inch. High temperatures will be in the mid to
upper 80s and near the 90s. Low temperatures will be ranging
between the mid to upper 70s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday): The first half of the
period will be dominated by a weak upper ridge over deep south
Texas with its axis aligned north-south in the vicinity of the
coast. Aside from being precipitation free, rising
heights/thicknesses in the Mon-Wed timeframe will bring above
normal temperatures with seasonal dew points. The end result will
be mostly sunny/partly cloudy skies with hot/humid days and weak
surface winds.

On Thursday, the ridge will get nudged eastward as an upper trough
transitions eastward into the southern plains from the southern
Rockies. Increasing southwest flow aloft will cause moisture to
increase across deep south Texas while strengthening onshore flow
contributes additional moisture. Because of the moisture increase,
slight chances of precipitation enter the forecast again on
Thursday and remain in through Friday. Increasing moisture will
counter gradually lowering heights/thicknesses Thu-Fri for
continued above normal temps and humid conditions across the
board. A weak upper trough looks to move across deep south Texas
Friday afternoon/night followed by weak upper ridging for
Saturday. Have removed precip chances for Saturday based on the
trough passage with temps expected to remain somewhat above
normal.

&&

.MARINE: Now through Sunday night...Weak gradient will be weak
today keeping a Southeasterly flow across the Gulf Waters. A few
isolated showers will develop near the coast but produce mainly a
brief rain shower. Into Sunday the gradient strengthens increasing
southeast winds along the coast. Seas will build into the 3 to 4
feet range with possible SCEC over the Gulf waters and the Laguna
Madre.

Monday through Wednesday night: Modest winds/seas will prevail
along the lower Texas coast through the period with high pressure
over the western Gulf of Mexico. Small Craft Advisory and/or
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution conditions will develop
toward the end of the period as the pressure gradient strengthens.

&&

.BRO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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19/67


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