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000
FXUS64 KBRO 080543 AAB
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1143 PM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF IFR TO MVFR CIGS ARE THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACT
THROUGH TONIGHT. IFR TO HUG THE COASTAL AREAS WITH KBRO AND KHRL
BEING AFFECTED. KMFE TO MAINTAIN MVFR BUT CIGS TO APPROACH IFR BY
SUNRISE. MODELS SUGGEST MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 1500-2500 FEET DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY THEN LOWER SUNDAY EVENING APPROACHING IFR AND
EVENING GOING BELOW SUNDAY NIGHT. PATCHY MVFR VSBY ISSUES ARE
NOTED OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES OF JIM HOGG AND ZAPATA. THIS
COULD PERSIST MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND MIGHT SPREAD EAST BY SUNRISE
BUT IS NOT MENTIONED IN THE TAFS FOR LOW PROBABILITY AND
CONFIDENCE. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO RELAX AND WILL BE
LIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS VEER NORTH TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY REMAINING
BELOW 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 PM CST SAT DEC 7 2013/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT
BECOMING LIGHT EARLY THIS EVENING. THE THICK CLOUD LEVEL
AROUND 3000 FEET WILL BEGIN TO LOWERING CIGS TO 1000 FEET
AFTER MIDNIGHT. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TOMORROW TO HIGH MVFR WITH
LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CST SAT DEC 7 2013/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...PERSISTENT LOW STRATUS
CONTINUES TO BLANKET THE REGION AS COLD AIR ADVECTS UNDERNEATH
FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS ARE BEGINNING TO
DIMINISH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES BUT TEMPERATURES BETWEEN
35 AND 45 ARE COMMON THROUGHOUT THE CWA WITH WIND CHILL READINGS
IN THE SLIGHTLY WINDIER COASTAL COUNTIES KEEPING CLOSE TO 30
DEGREES. PATCHY DRIZZLE AND MIST CONTINUES NEAR THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT WITH COLD
ADVECTION COMING TO AN END. TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY ONLY DROP A
FEW DEGREES FROM AFTERNOON HIGHS. WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL STAY UP
TO 5 TO 10 MPH UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT AND HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND
CHILL ADVISORY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A FEW
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE CRITERIA...BUT WITH WIND CHILLS AROUND 28
EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET OPTED TO
CONTINUE THE ADVISORY FROM HERE FOR SIMPLICITY. TEMPERATURES AT THE
HEBBRONVILLE ASOS AND RAWS SITE ARE JUST ABOVE FREEZING BUT THEY
STILL SHOULD BUMP UP TWO TO THREE DEGREES FROM WHERE THEY ARE NOW
AND THAT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT A FREEZE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
OPTED TO NOT ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING...ALTHOUGH ONE MAY STILL END UP
BEING NECESSARY BEFORE SUNSET FOR PART OF THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS.

SUNDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE JUST OFF THE SURFACE SUNDAY
MORNING. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN DECOUPLED FROM THIS UNDER
CLOUDY SKIES MOST OF THE MORNING BUT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SLIGHT THINNING OF CEILING SHOULD ALLOW FOR
TEMPS TO MOVE UPWARD INTO THE LOWER 50S. PATCHY DRIZZLE OR LIGHT
RAIN IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUD COVER STICKS AROUND AND TEMPERATURES FALL ONLY
A FEW DEGREES UNDER THE STRATUS BLANKET. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...MONDAY WILL SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS TO PERHAPS
THE LOWER 70S FOR THE LOWER VALLEY. THE MODELS SEEM A LITTLE SLOWER
NOW WITH THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SURGE FROM THE NORTH.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THERE...BUT MID LEVEL DYNAMICS SEEMS A
LITTLE SLOWER WITH SUPPORT. LOW TEMPS WILL STABILIZE IN THE 40S AND
50S AS NORTH WINDS PICK UP THROUGH THE NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE LOWER...MAINLY IN THE 50S. WITH AN UPPER WEAKNESS HANGING
BACK OVER BAJA...IT WILL BE HARD TO CHANGE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEK. THE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL SHIFT EAST SLIGHTLY...BUT THE DOOR
WILL STILL BE OPEN FOR PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE TO FILTER SOUTH. TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL REFELCT COOLER AIR WITH TEMPS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID
OR UPPER 40S...WITH ANOTHER COOL...DREAR DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPS 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. THE
REST OF THE WEEK WILL SEE A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND...WITH CLOUD
SKIES AND CONTINUED CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO COME DOWN ON THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND THE LAGUNA MADRE. WAVE HEIGHT DATA FROM BUOY
42020 HAS BEEN INTERMITTENT TODAY SO WAVE HEIGHT ESTIMATION IS
DIFFICULT BUT HAVE ELECTED TO CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO AS IS...ASSUMING THAT SEAS REMAIN GENERALLY
ROUGH. CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS AND SEAS FALLING TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS ON THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ADVANCING
SOUTH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS MONDAY MORNING...WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF. LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE MARINE AREAS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY UNTIL THE NEXT
SURGE ARRIVES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE SEAS WILL BUILD TO
HIGH...ALONG WITH WINDS INCREASING TO STRONG NORTH LATE MONDAY...
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY. STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO JUST BELOW GALE FORCE
POSSIBLE. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 8 AND 10 FEET OFF
SHORE BY TUESDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS
OVER THE GULF THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH WAVE HEIGHTS AT OR ABOVE
SEVEN FEET THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL PERSIST
ALONG THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION...WITH OVERRUNNING AND LIGHT
PRECIP CONTINUING OVER THE LOCAL AREA DUE TO A SURFACE COASTAL
TROUGH LYING OFF THE COAST TO THE EAST.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST SUNDAY FOR TXZ251-254>257.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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