Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 310854
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
354 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE EWX
CWA THIS MORNING AT ABOUT 30 MPH AND WILL KEEP THINGS INTERESTING
IN THE SHORT TERM. REVAMPED THE FIRST COUPLE OF PERIODS A BIT TO
INCREASE OVERALL POPS. SPEED OF ADVANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LOWER VALLEY FROM ROUGHLY 10 AM TO NOON. ONCE
THROUGH HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND COOLER WEATHER. HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER VALLEY MAY
ACHIEVE THE MID 80S TODAY...BUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS
AND BRUSH COUNTRY LOWER 80S WILL BE MORE THE NORM. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE CLUSTER AND A POCKET OF ENERGY AT BOTH
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING SOME OF THE LIFT.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF AN
ADVANCING MID LEVEL RIDGE...WITH PERHAPS THE SLIGHTEST BIT OF
SUBTROPICAL JET LIFT IN THE MIX AS WELL.

TONIGHT WILL BE CLEAR HOWEVER...WITH LOW TEMPS FROM THE LOW TO MID
50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCH LANDS AND BRUSH COUNTRY TO THE MID 60S
ALONG THE COAST AND AT BROWNSVILLE. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

SATURDAY WILL BE SUNNY AND COOLER WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST
WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE 70S...CLOSE TO NORMAL. JUST A FEW SHOWERS MAY MATERIALIZE OFF
SHORE IF WINDS VEER AROUND TO SOUTHEAST QUICK ENOUGH...BUT POPS WILL
REMAIN SILENT IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY STILL LOOK BREEZY TO WINDY AS STRONG RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTERACT
WITH LEE TROUGHING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL
US...FORCED BY A STRENGTHENING AND BROADENING UPPER LEVEL JET
MAXIMUM AHEAD OF A DIGGING SOUTHWESTERN US TROUGH. WIND GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 MPH LOOK POSSIBLE...WITH 35 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
COASTAL COUNTIES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
ADVECT IN MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT PRECIPITATION MAY BE HARD TO
COME BY AS SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW IMPINGES ON THE AREA WITH
DRY AIR PERHAPS CAPPING MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE
MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE FORM OF STREAMER
SHOWERS AND TUESDAY THESE SHOWERS MOVE INTO AREAS EAST OF HWY 281.

MODELS STILL HAVING ISSUES RESOLVING THE SOUTHERN STREAM VORTICITY
AND RESULTANT CLOSED LOW OVER WEST TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. OF THE AVAILABLE OPERATIONAL MODELS...THE GFS REMAINS
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE CMC IS A LITTLE SLOWER IN BRINGING IT ACROSS AROUND
12 HOURS LATER. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH...THE 00Z ECMWF DOES NOT BRING
A FRONT THROUGH AND KEEPS IT NORTH OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST AS CONSISTENT AS I CAN LEANING TOWARDS THE GFS THIS
FORECAST PERIOD AND BLENDING WITH OUR SURROUNDING NEIGHBORS. MADE
LITTLE ADJUSTMENTS TO POP FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD BUT DID RAISE
POPS ALONG OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE BEST PLACEMENT OF POTENTIAL
PRECIPITATION EXISTS WITH THE INJECTION OF HIGHER MOISTURE FROM
TROPICAL STORM VANCE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

&&

.MARINE /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...LIGHT WINDS AND LOWS SEAS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE A FRONT MOVES FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WHEN THE FRONT
WILL CLEAR THE AREA. MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND
THE FRONT MAY BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 20 KNOTS
TONIGHT...BRINGING ABOUT EXERCISE CAUTION TO LOW END SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BUILD TO
MORE THAN ABOUT 5 TO 7 FEET OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO THE
RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION OF ELEVATED WINDS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
MODERATE FLOW WILL RULE THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS WITH MODERATE
SEAS. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE ADVERSE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BECOMES STRONG AND SEAS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST TEXAS. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND
SEAS APPEAR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  81  66  77  65 /  50   0  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          82  64  78  63 /  50  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            82  61  78  61 /  50   0  10  10
MCALLEN              84  61  79  62 /  60   0  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      84  58  78  60 /  60   0   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   80  69  76  69 /  60   0  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...54
LONG TERM...55
GRAPHICS/UPPER-AIR...CAMPBELL





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