Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 281730 AAC
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1230 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. /53/

&&

.AVIATION...
A RELATIVELY FLAT CU FIELD HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS EAST
OF IH-69C/US-281.  ADDITIONAL CU WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE SEABREEZE MOVES ONSHORE.  HOWEVER...GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE
AND WEAK FORCING...ANY -SHRA OR TSRA WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND WILL
LIKELY NOT AFFECT THE MAJOR AIRPORTS IN THE VALLEY.  ONLY SCTD CU IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH SUNSET FOR THE KBRO...KHRL...AND KMFE TERMINALS.

WILL CONTINUE WITH A LARGELY PERSISTENCE-TYPE FORECAST FOR THE 1800
UTC TAF PACKAGE.  AFTER AFTERNOON CU DIMINISHES AROUND SUNSET...SOME
PATCHY ST MAY BE SEEN TOWARD SUNRISE TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD MIX OUT BY
29/1500 UTC OR SO.  GUSTY SE-S WINDS AROUND 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY MID-MORNING
TUESDAY.  /53/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THIS MORNING...THANKS TO A SPRAWLING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
NEAR THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER. THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS
DRY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM THIS MORNING`S KBRO
SOUNDING HOVERING NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY (1.67 IN.). WITH
PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

WE MIGHT SEE A SEABREEZE DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE AND VERY WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING...VERY LITTLE
CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. WITH THAT SAID...WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN HOT AND DRY.

SPEAKING OF HOT AND DRY...SOME ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE HOURLY
GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVED AND DIURNAL TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE
ONGOING FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.  /53/

MARINE...
OBSERVATIONAL PLATFORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO INDICATE WIND
SPEEDS CONTINUE TO HOVER BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SPEEDS ON THE LAGUNA. BASED ON THIS...I HAVE ADJUSTED WIND
SPEEDS A BIT OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. /53/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A FEW CLOUDS AT 015 CONTINUE TO SWEEP NORTHWARD ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. SKIES SHOULD GO NO MORE THAN SCT THROUGH
MIDMORNING...EXCEPT FOR VERY TEMPO BKN015 AT KMFE. SKIES DECREASE
TO FEW TO CLR FOR MOST OF THE DAY TODAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE
TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY ...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS OCCURRING ALONG
THE SEABREEZE. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
TO OPPRESS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP TO 97 TO 104 DEGREES
TODAY...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES PEAKING AT 105 TO 108 THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY AS THE SFC RIDGE
ACROSS THE GULF WEAKENS AND SPREADS INLAND INTO TEXAS...INDUCED BY A
WEAK MIDLEVEL INVERTED TROUGH MOVING INLAND FROM THE GULF. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVES TO THE
WEST AND THE RIDGE RESUMES DOMINANCE ACROSS TEXAS. PW VALUES
TOMORROW WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 1.4 INCHES...WHICH WILL MINIMIZE
CLOUD FORMATION DURING THE DAY. HIGHS AGAIN WILL BE UPPER 90S AND
LOW 100S.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED NORTH AMERICAN
UPPER AIR PATTERN. WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES WHILE A
DEEP TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY. INCREASING
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PLAINS TO SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH
TEXAS WORKING ITS WAY VERY SLOW INTO OUR CWA NEXT WEEKEND.

THE WORK WEEK REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM LAST
WEEK. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
OFFERING AGAIN. THE HOT UPPER RIDGE KEEPS ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION
WITH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE REMAINING NEARLY STEADY STATE WITH LITTLE
DAY TO DAY VARIATION. GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE RATHER DRY
WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE. HEAT INDICES ALTHOUGH
HOT TO REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS WITH THE DRIER AIR ALOFT
MIXING TO THE SURFACE DURING PEAK HEATING KEEPING THE HUMIDITY
LEVELS MANAGEABLE. AS FOR RAIN CHANCES STAYING NEAR ZERO OUR
CLIMATOLOGY SHOWS THE END OF JULY AND EARLY AUGUST IS USUALLY OUR
DRIEST TIME OF THE YEAR.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF
THE ROCKIES INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS. WINDS TO
INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURNING
TO THE REGION. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW IN MOVING
SOUTH AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION UNTIL NEXT
WEEKEND. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH THE FRONT`S MOVEMENT
AND THE DAILY CONVECTION. BROAD BRUSH 20-30 PERCENTS LOOK GOOD AT
THIS TIME WITH A DETAILED FORECAST FOR DAYS 6 AND 7 /SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY/ A BIT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WITH DECENT CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT OF EACH MODEL RUN.
IT LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE TO DEEPEN IN ADVANCE OR ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND SOUTHEAST TO EAST PROPAGATION OF CONVECTION THAT
FIRES TO OUR NORTH AND WEST COULD EVENTUALLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURE TRENDS CONTINUE DOWNWARD AS THE CHANCE
OF RAIN INCREASES.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
IMPROVED VS YESTERDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF MOVES
WEST AND RELAXES THE LOCAL GRADIENT. SEAS CURRENTLY 3 TO 4 FEET WILL
GRADUALLY FALL TO AROUND 2 FEET BY TONIGHT. WINDS OF 10 TO 15KTS
WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST.
MARINE CONDITIONS IMPROVE FURTHER TOMORROW...WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND
SEAS EXPECTED.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA AND COLD FRONT MOVE
INTO NORTH TEXAS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH WINDS AT
 MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. AS THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH
FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND THE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW DIMINISHING.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM FORECASTER... BUTTS
LONG TERM FORECASTER... GIBBS
PSU/GRAPHICAST... TOMASELLI





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