Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 222018
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
318 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...BROWNSVILLE RADAR CURRENTLY
SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COASTAL WATERS
EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID AND LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. THE 0Z BRO SOUNDING INDICATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF
2.22 INCHES.

THE FORECAST IS TRICKY TODAY AS FAR AS POPS GO. MID LEVEL DRIER AIR
SLOWLY BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND HOW FAR SOUTH THE DRIER AIR REACHES.
MET/MAV GUIDANCE ALONG THE WITH ECMWF INDICATE HIGHER POPS THIS
MORNING WITH RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY DECREASING BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE BUT DUE TO MODEL INCONSISTENCIES...CAN NOT
RULE OUT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND SUN TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 80S
ALONG THE COAST TO THE MID 90S ACROSS THE WEST.

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP AROUND 70
DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE. THE TROPICAL AIRMASS RETURNS TO
THE AREA ON TUESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
COASTAL SHOWERS BY TUESDAY MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN THE INHERITED
FORECAST OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S ALONG THE COAST
TO THE LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...A SLOW MOVING
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY DIGS SOUTH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHILE THE CUT-OFF LOW
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WEAKENS. SURFACE FLOW WILL BE DOMINATED
BY A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE TOWARDS THE EAST AND WILL KEEP AN EAST
FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP
MOISTURE OVER THE GULF WATERS TO MIGRATE WEST INTO THE CWA. THIS
WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM KEEPING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
WEAK LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND IT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE CLOSER TO THE CWA BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALSO HELP ENHANCE THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE OVERALL DEEPER LAYER
MOISTURE LEVELS NEVER COMPLETELY DIMINISH OVER THE RGV THROUGHOUT
THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD WITH THE RGV STAYING ON THE NORTHERN MOST
EDGE OF A LARGER AREA OF MOISTURE THAT STAYS POOLED OVER MUCH OF
MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE CONV POTENTIAL MAY ALSO BE
ENHANCED BY THE PRESENCE OF A PERSISTENT COASTAL SURFACE TROUGH
NEXT THE LOWER TX COASTLINE FOR MUCH OF THIS UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND 90S DEGREES AS THE CLOUD COVER
LIMITS DAYTIME HEATING. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN LOW TO MID
70S ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.


&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...BUOY 42020 CURRENTLY REPORTING EAST
WINDS OF 16 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 18 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 5.9 FEET.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS
TODAY AND TONIGHT DUE TO THE INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS.

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF WATERS WILL KEEP AN EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE WEEK. THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL KEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. SEAS WILL BUILD CLOSE TO SCA FRIDAY. EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE ERRATIC WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  78  89  77  89 /  10  20  20  40
BROWNSVILLE          74  89  75  89 /  10  20  20  40
HARLINGEN            73  90  74  89 /  10  20  20  40
MCALLEN              73  89  74  90 /  10  20  20  40
RIO GRANDE CITY      73  90  74  90 /  10  10  20  40
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   80  87  79  88 /  10  20  20  40

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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