Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 261901
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
301 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow-moving cold front is expected to bring unsettled weather
tonight through early Thursday. Rain chances diminish on
Thursday as high pressure approaches but a tight pressure
gradient will likely produce breezy conditions. High pressure
and upper ridging should keep the region dry on Friday and into
the weekend with a warming trend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A slow moving cold front will be approaching the area overnight,
but will remain west of the area tonight. A good amount of cloud
cover, with some breaks allowing the sun to shine through, will
continue this afternoon. Better moisture moves in this evening
and overnight, allowing an increase in rainfall chances.
Scattered light showers can not be ruled out late this
afternoon, especially over the western cwa, but the better rain
chances will move in later tonight and into Wednesday morning.
With a good amount of clouds and warm advection setting up,
overnight lows will be somewhat mild, with the upper 50s to the
lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The aforementioned cold front will nearly stall across the area
on Wednesday as the parent low rapidly lifts north into
southern Canada and the supporting synoptic flow turns nearly
parallel to temp-moisture gradient. The models indicate a weak
wave will develop along the front in response to s/w moving
across the lower MS River Valley during the day on Wednesday
then move off the coast during Thursday. With the boundary
lined up across SC, PWAT`s in the coastal plain will remain
1.25-1.5", with PWAT`s below 0.5" on the dry side in the
Upstate. The CSRA and Midlands will likely fall right along the
primary gradient which will consequently have impacts on
expected rainfall. Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms
are expected Wednesday, particularly from I-20 south and east.
Additional heavy rain is possible Wednesday night into early
Thursday as the trough vort max helps developing a low along the
frontal boundary before pushing offshore. So there is good
agreement across the HREF, GEFS, and ECE in the slow progression
of the front and thus high precip chances across the day
Wednesday and into Thursday morning with the developing low. The
models are in reasonably close condition, but any slight change
in the location of the front and track of the developing low
pressure area will determine where the heaviest rain falls.
Still looks to be near/along to I-95 and eastward, with waves of
strong convection likely especially late Wednesday evening into
Thursday. So overall, the total QPF is highly uncertain with a
tight gradient in totals expected to fall somewhere between I-20
and I-95. The high end rainfall potential of 2-3"+, thanks to
training showers and storms, would pose a flooding threat,
particularly along the I-95 corridor; WPC continued their
marginal risk ERO for Wednesday across the ern half of the
state.

The developing coastal low as the vort max aloft swings through
Thursday morning will help quickly force the moisture boundary
offshore and bring strong dry advection throughout Thursday
afternoon and into Friday morning. Temperatures will close to or
slightly below normal for highs on Wednesday, but a bit
dependent on frontal position. With clouds and chances for
rainfall overnight, expect milder than normal conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
There is good agreement overall in the long term period in the
GEFS and ECE members with nearly identical mean 500mb
anomalies from Friday through Monday. A cold, dry advection
regime is expected behind Thursday`s coastal low departure so
confidence is high in near-below average temps and moisture for
Friday. Deep ridging is then expected to build across the
central-eastern US over the weekend with both GEFS and ECE
suggesting 500mb heights over 579+ dm by Sunday. Therefore
steadily warming temps are expected, with increasing confidence
in temps 10+ degrees above average by Monday. Our area will
likely remain downstream of the primary ridge axis under
northwest flow through this period so drier than average air is
expected. The ridge axis is expected to shift east of the area
during the day on Tuesday. Expect to see daytime highs climb
to/around the 80 degree mark across much of the region for
Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Good mix of sun and clouds this afternoon, with ceilings
remaining vfr through 00z. A return to mvfr/ifr then expected
later tonight, especially after 06z at all locations, ahead of
an approaching cold front moving in from the west. Scattered
showers become possible after 00z, but confidence in coverage is
currently low. Will mention vcsh for now, then update once the
timing of onset becomes better established. Area transitions to
predominant shra towards midnight, with periods rain then
expected through the end of the taf period. Winds start off
southeasterly, with occasional gusts through the afternoon.
Winds turning more southerly overnight, then begin turning out
of the west near the end of the taf period as the front moves
in.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Some restrictions still possible
Wednesday evening as the slow moving front moves east. Expect
breezy winds on Thursday and Friday as rainfall exits the
region.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...


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