Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 301218
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
818 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH WILL BEGIN PUSHING AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY AS A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL
US. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL JUST WEST OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK KEEPING CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST WILL SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE MS VALLEY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST OFFSHORE. EXPECT CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS AND SOUTHERN CSRA WHERE SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS WILL
GENERATE SOME ACTIVITY. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET
RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MOISTURE INCREASE WITH SOME CONVERGENCE INTO A POSSIBLE PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH WILL HELP CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE MODELS KEEP MOISTURE
SOMEWHAT SHALLOW AND THE CONVERGENCE APPEARS WEAK SUPPORTING
SCATTERED COVERAGE. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS INDICATES CHANCE POPS.
EXPECT THE GREATEST COVERAGE NEAR THE TIMES OF MAXIMUM HEATING.
THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINING NEAR
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. SOME UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING ALSO APPEARS TO LINGER. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY POPS. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS OF 30 TO
60 PERCENT. THE MOS HAS HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE
BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS CONTINUING THROUGH 14Z... THEN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

STRATUS AND FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS CAE/CUB/OGB WHICH WILL ERODE
AND RETURN TO VFR BY 14Z. ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH
SLIGHTLY INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
AT CAE/CUB/OGB. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE REMAINS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM WITH COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS
EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED. CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
BE EASTERLY AT 7 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
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