Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 170721
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
321 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the area for the next few days.
The air mass will be seasonably cool through Wednesday then
moderate late in the week. Moisture will return late in the
weekend ahead of a cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A dry and seasonably cool air mass will settle over the area
today as high pressure builds over the Carolinas. Strong low
level jet this morning indicated on radar vad profile so will
continue lake wind advisory until 8 am. High level cloudiness
early this morning will shift offshore by this afternoon as
short wave trough moves to the east so clear this afternoon and
overnight. Models indicate weak cold advection through the day
and into the evening. Temperature guidance consensus appears
reasonable with highs mainly in the low 70s this afternoon.
Although light winds tonight and clear sky suggest possible
strong radiational cooling...ridge axis remains northwest of the
region and models suggest some some mixing in the boundary
layer. Expect low temperatures mainly in the low to mid 40s
although temperatures in outlying and sheltered areas may fall
into the upper 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Dry air mass remains over the area through the period. The air
mass will slowly moderate over the next few days. Weak surface
pressure gradient with ridge remaining to the northwest of the
area and expect weak northeast flow with weakening cold
advection. Sky mainly clear.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will remain over the area through Saturday with
dry weather expected. The airmass will modify with warming
temperatures expected as an upper ridge builds over the region.
Rain chances may increase late in the weekend and early next
week as the upper ridge and surface high pressure shift offshore
and moisture increases ahead of a cold front. 00z models in
better agreement with progressive system and development of
eastern CONUS upper trough by the end of the period. Chance
showers Sunday and Monday. Temperatures above normal ahead of
the trough.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High confidence in VFR conditions through the forecast period.

High pressure along with cooler and drier air continues building
into the terminals and will dominate the region through the TAF
period. Skies will remain clear through the period with the main
concern being gusty winds. Current KCAE VAD wind profile
shows 35 knots at 1kft and strong low level jet will persist
through the night so have continued with mention of LLWS. Winds
will become gusty around 15z as deep mixing commences resulting
in under northeasterly winds around 10 knots with gusts to 20
knots through 22z. Wind will subside late in the period as the
pressure gradient relaxes and an inversion develops.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts to aviation
expected expected Wednesday through Saturday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
SC...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.

&&

$$



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