Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 221854
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
254 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Considerable moisture continues to stream into the area in the
southerly flow between high pressure off the Southeast Coast and
the remnants of Cindy to the west. A slow moving cold front
will affect the forecast area Saturday through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The region remains positioned between a large ridge of high
pressure over the western Atlantic and an upper level low
associated with the remnants of Cindy to the west. Meanwhile at
the surface, a weak trough continues to slowly lift northward
across the Midlands this afternoon.

Gulf moisture streaming into the area has brought precipitable
water values up to 2.2 inches across most of the area. Light
rain associated with weak isentropic ascent over the surface
trough and a short wave disturbance lifting northward has
brought areas of light rain to the northern Midlands as of mid-
afternoon. There is also some isolated convection along a
differential heating boundary across the eastern Midlands. While
the rest of the area is generally rain-free, scattered showers
and perhaps a thunderstorm should develop later this afternoon
given the moist environment and increasing instability spreading
northward. Temperatures have warmed considerably south of the
surface trough, with some readings now into the upper 80s to
near 90.

For tonight, the abundant moisture will persist, however and
shower activity should diminish in coverage during the evening
with a lack of any significant forcing. Cloud cover will remain
extensive, with low stratus developing overnight. There is even
the potential for some patchy fog to develop toward daybreak
once again, however it does appear that surface winds may not
fully decouple everywhere, somewhat limiting the overall
potential. Temperatures will remain rather mild due to the cloud
cover, with lows forecast to be in the lower to mid 70s.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Remnants of Cindy will be moving off to the north of the
forecast area ahead of an approaching cold front Friday into
Saturday. Cindy will race rapidly northeastward into Saturday
ahead of the front, with upper ridging across the western
Atlantic helping to keep the bulk of the moisture from Cindy
north of the cwa. A decrease in clouds will bring some sunshine
back to the area Friday, and expect to see some sea-breeze
convection moving inland by the afternoon hours. Friday should
start off mostly dry, then isolated to scattered showers/storms
by the afternoon with the sea-breeze. Friday night will see
additional showers off to the west of the area as the cold front
begins to approach from the west. Increasing rain chances on
Saturday and Saturday night with chance pops expected as the
front begins to move into the forecast area. The main front
should be moving into the eastern portions of the the cwa by
Sunday morning. The front will slow on Sunday, with a weak low
possibly moving along the boundary during the day. Will continue
with chance pops through Sunday night across the eastern cwa,
with slightly lower pops across the western counties further
away from the front.

As for temperatures through the period, it will remain rather
hot and humid ahead of the front. Afternoon highs in the lower
90s Friday and Saturday, with heat index values around 100 each
afternoon. Temperatures and heat indices slightly cooler on
Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Drier and cooler air should be pushing into the region by
Monday. May still see some lingering rainfall for a portion of
the day Monday, then the drier air will finally take control for
Tuesday through Thursday. Guidance continues to indicate
supports temperatures near to slightly below normal during the
medium-range period.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Ceilings have improved to VFR levels this afternoon, although
brief reductions back to MVFR levels are possible. Have kept
vicinity showers in the forecast at all terminals into early
this evening. KOGB is closer to a differential heating boundary
and more likely to see scattered convection this afternoon so
have a tempo group there for showers with some flight
restrictions. Low stratus is expected to develop once again at
all terminals overnight given the abundant low level moisture,
and low-end MVFR and IFR conditions are likely. Patchy fog could
be an issue once again as well, but surface winds appear to
couple slightly toward daybreak and may prevent dense fog from
forming. Improvement back to VFR should occur by mid-late
morning.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions will be
possible through Monday in mainly afternoon/evening convection.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$



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