Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 252015

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
315 PM EST Sun Feb 25 2018

A cold front will stall near the area overnight into Monday.
The front will move east of the area Monday night with dry high
pressure building in from the north Tuesday. Temperatures will
remain above normal through the week.


A deep upper level low over the Great Lakes region will
move into eastern Canada as an upper trough moving across the
Plains this afternoon moves into the MS River Valley overnight.

A cold front crossing the Midlands this afternoon will stall
near the area tonight. Showers associated with the front will
continue spreading east across the eastern Midlands this afternoon.
Behind the front...showers will be scattered. Cannot rule out
isolated thunder over the eastern Midlands and CSRA given weak
instability through late afternoon.

Models indicated increasing isentropic lift overnight as the
front stalls near the area. Periods of rain is likely overnight.
An in-situ wedge may develop across the northern portion of the
region toward morning. Overnight lows will range from the mid
50s to lower 60s.


Monday...The cold front will be in the area Tuesday morning and
will gradually shift toward the coast during the day. Weak low
pressure tracking northeast along the boundary from the Gulf
Coast states will focus showers across the area as isentropic
lift is enhanced along with low level convergence. Shortwave
energy will track through the area Monday morning and then again
Monday night. This energy should enhance rainfall during the
morning, but most of the moisture should be east of the area by
the time the second shortwave comes through Monday evening. Maintained
categorical pops during the morning with decreasing pops in the
afternoon. The ECMWF is a little slower moving all of the
rainfall out of the area Monday evening than the NAM and GFS.
The ECMWF shows a deeper wave of low pressure along the coast
around 00Z Tuesday. Slowed down the system pushing out of the
area just a bit to account for model uncertainty. With in-situ
wedge conditions favorable, there is considerable uncertainty
in temperature forecast especially north of CAE. The high
temperatures may occur early in the day in the north as cold
advection develops behind weak surface low. Temperatures on
Monday will be several degrees cooler than recent days with
highs 65 to 70 and lows in the low 40s to lower 50s.

Tuesday...Zonal flow aloft is expected on Tuesday while at the
surface, high pressure will ridge into the region from the
north. Models show much drier air over the region during the
day on Tuesday. High pressure will shift off the coast late
Tuesday with moisture increasing across the area from the
Tuesday night. Above normal temperatures on Tuesday with highs
in the upper 60s to around 70 and lows in the upper 40s to lower


Low pressure over the southern Plains on Wednesday will lift
northeastward toward the southern Great Lakes and then towards
southern New England Friday. This system will bring a warm
front through the forecast area on Wednesday and a cold front
through on Thursday. Moisture will deepen across the area from
on Wednesday with southeasterly low level flow. Shortwave
energy will also be moving through the area on Wednesday, so
believe likely pops focused south and west still appear okay.
Also continued with likely pops on Thursday as the cold front
moves through area. Models show breezy conditions on Thursday
and Friday associated with the front in the area. The cold front
will be off the coast on Friday with a drier airmass over the
region for the weekend. Temperatures through the period are
forecast near to above normal values for this time of year.


Mainly VFR conditions this afternoon, with deteriorating
conditions tonight into Monday.

A frontal boundary and associated line of showers are now east
of all taf sites. Scattered light rain and mainly VFR
conditions can be expected behind the boundary for the remainder
of this afternoon and evening. The frontal boundary will stall
south of the TAF sites overnight. Increasing moisture and lift
will spread rain as well as ceiling restrictions across the
area once again late tonight. Ceiling and visibility
restrictions will then linger from late tonight through the end
of the TAF period as weak low pressure moves along the stalled

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible through Monday
night. Another frontal system may bring restrictions to the
area Wednesday through Thursday.




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