Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
FXUS62 KCAE 221124
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
624 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2017
Weak low pressure moving southward toward Florida will keep
onshore flow over the area with low chances of showers through
Thursday. A cold front will cross the region Saturday with dry
high pressure building into the area for Sunday into next week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Weak surface and upper level low continue tracking southward
toward the Fl Panhandle with light showers over the CSRA due to
onshore flow. As the low moves southward today and tonight it
will become less organized...however onshore flow will continue.
Expect the light showers to continue through tonight with the
highest chances in the CSRA and western Midlands. With pwat
values just over one inch expect rainfall amounts to be light
with most locations seeing one tenth of an inch or less. High
temperatures this afternoon will be in the lower to middle 70s
with lows tonight in the middle 50s.
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Remains of the low pressure will become further disorganized as
it moves from the FL Peninsula off the eastern coast and toward
the Bahamas. This will allow weak high pressure to build into
the forecast area with onshore flow subsiding. Pwat values will
drop below one inch and with drier air moving into the upper
levels for Thursday afternoon through Friday night chances of
showers will end Thursday afternoon. Skies will be mostly
cloudy Thursday then become mostly sunny Friday as direr air
moves into the lower levels. The situation will begin changing
late Friday night as strong low pressure moves into the western
Great Lakes and pushes a cold front eastward from the Ohio
Valley to the central Gulf Coast. Temperatures will be in the
middle 70s to around 80 for daytime highs with overnight lows in
the middle to upper 50s.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure will move into the Great Lakes with the cold front
moving into Upstate SC Saturday around sunrise and into the
Midlands during the late morning. Moisture with the front
remains limited so have kept pops limited to chance or lower.
Cold front will quickly move offshore Saturday afternoon with
dry high pressure moving in for Saturday night through Sunday
night. High pressure will move east of the area Monday with
unsettled weather returning to the region for Monday night and
Tuesday. Temperatures through the long term will remain above
.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low-level moisture advection will continue with onshore flow.
This morning patchy MVFR conditions in the CSRA may become more
widespread in the region near AGS/DNL terminals mid to late
morning. Scattered showers are also expected due to isentropic
lift with focus possible in the CSRA. Lower chance rain and
restrictions in the central Midlands near CAE/CUB...but showers
are possible mainly during the afternoon with broken strato-
cumulus. Conditions should improve during the early evening at
all terminals as focus for showers shifts west of the area. Low-
level moisture overnight and light winds supports fog although
mid and high clouds expected reducing threat. Stayed close to
Lamp guidance after 00z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible mainly late
night early morning stratus/fog.