Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 112320
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
620 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Southern States will weaken overnight
allowing a dry cold front to cross the area Tuesday morning.
High pressure will build back into the region for Wednesday and
Thursday with unsettled weather for Friday as another cold front
crosses the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
High pressure will maintain control of the region keeping cool
and dry air in place through tonight. Winds tonight will
remain southwesterly 5 to 10 mph as a cold front approaches from
the northwest. High clouds will also increase, which will
disrupt radiational cooling conditions, and overnight lows
should be in the mid to upper 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front with limited moisture will cross the area
Tuesday morning. Model soundings indicate pwat values will
remain below one half inch with the frontal passage. No
precipitation is expected though clouds will briefly increase.
Breezy conditions will develop behind the front as cold air
advection takes hold. Winds will be an issue Tuesday night over
area lakes as cold air advection over the warmer lake waters
will keep winds strong and gusty overnight. A lake wind advisory
may be needed Tuesday night. Downslope flow may offset cold air
advection Tuesday afternoon. We kept high temperatures ranging
through the 50s with overnight lows in the mid 20s to around 30
degrees Tuesday night.

High pressure will build back into the region for Wednesday and
Wednesday night along with cold/dry air and subsiding winds.
Temperatures will only reach the 40s Wednesday afternoon with
overnight lows around 30 degrees under mostly clear skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will remain in control of the region Thursday.
Both the GFS and ECMWF indicate a longwave trough digging
across the eastern half of the country Friday...moving off the
coast Friday night. In response...weak surface low pressure will
develop over the area Thursday night and move off the coast
Friday afternoon. Kept slight chance pops for Friday...although
moisture may be lacking given the speed of this system and
westerly flow aloft. Breezy conditions may develop Friday
afternoon.

Both the GFS and ECMWF build dry high pressure into the region for
Saturday into Sunday morning. Yet another cold front is progged to
cross the area Sunday night into Monday, bringing another chance for
showers.

Below normal temperatures are foreseen Friday and Saturday with
readings near or slightly above normal Thursday and early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
We have high confidence in VFR conditions through the 24-hour
TAF period. However, low-level wind shear will occur.

An approaching cold front will move through the area Tuesday
morning. Ridging along the Gulf Coast will limit moisture
recovery ahead of the front. Expect just a little high
cloudiness associated with the front. A little mixing
associated with a low-level jet ahead of the front should help
prevent fog. Based on the NAN we have included low-level wind
shear late tonight until around 14z when mixing and gusty winds
along and behind the front will explicitly indicate shear. The
NAM Bufkit momentum transfer tool and GFS LAMP support gusts 20
to 25 knots.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts expected.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99



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