Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 282339
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
739 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASED MOISTURE
SUNDAY. IT WILL BE DRIER BETWEEN UPPER SYSTEMS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LINGERING CONVECTION AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. DRIER WESTERLY FLOW AND
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS CLEARING TAKES
PLACE. THE HRRR KEEPS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN NORTH CAROLINA
OVERNIGHT...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS
IS STILL WEST OF THE AREA. WITH THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW PATTERN DO
NOT EXPECT ANY RAINFALL FRIDAY. PWAT VALUES REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW
0.75 INCHES. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM DUE TO DOWNSLOPING
WINDS...AND STILL EXPECTING AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 90 OR IN THE
LOWER 90S. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT ONLY FALLING INTO THE
MIDDLE 60S.

SATURDAY...SOME MOISTURE INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS SOUTH FLOW
RETURNS TO THE AREA. CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS SATURDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND A
LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO REMAIN
FURTHER OFF TO THE WEST IN THE UPSTATE. LOSS OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
INCREASED CLOUD COVER SATURDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
COOLER...IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LONGER TERM AT THIS TIME. MODELS REMAIN IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN START TO DIVERGE SOLUTIONS
AS WE GET INTO NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THE
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING UPPER LOW MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
UNCERTAINTY TO FORECAST BEGINS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE GFS
AND ECMWF DIVERGE ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM MOVING
TOWARDS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY WENT WITH A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE LONG TERM DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONVECTION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE TAF SITES FOR THE EVENING.
CLOUDS CLEARING THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. MAINLY CLEAR SKY
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.
COULD SEE INTERMITTENT FOG AT AGS 09Z-12Z AS WINDS DIMINISH. WIND
VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$



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