000
FXUS62 KCAE 190207
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1007 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH TODAY AND TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEST
TO EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE COLD FRONT IN THE UPSTATE ACROSS NORTHERN MIDLANDS AT
02Z. SHOWERS ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT TO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST. OTHER SHOWERS AROUND COLUMBIA SHOW CONTINUED
WEAKENING TREND. COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST
OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK OVERNIGHT AND FORCING LIMITED
TO WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WITH CLOUDS PERSISTING OVERNIGHT EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND
70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY MOVES EAST BY THURSDAY AS
UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OUT WEST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVE DRAGS
A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT MOVES TO
THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER QUITE WEAK SHORT WAVE DROPS
SOUTHWARD THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. PLAN ON A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
THURSDAY. EXPECT DIURNAL MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH CAE AREA NOT OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE
STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AFTERNOON SURFACE HEATING WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 COULD CAUSE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND
CAUSE A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. ATMOSPHERE IS A
LITTLE DRIER WITH PWAT VALUES DOWN FROM 2.0 INCHES TODAY TO ABOUT
1.5 INCHES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH
FRIDAY EXITS TO THE EAST AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH UPPER RIDGE IN THE VICINITY...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ON THE RISE. HIGHS UPPER 80S FRIDAY WILL
INCREASE TO THE LOWER 90S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. MAINLY DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING THE PERIOD AS EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SO...FAIRLY
TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS AS THE SUMMER SOLSTICE APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR AT THE TERMINALS CURRENTLY. RADAR INDICATES WEAKENING SHOWER
ACTIVITY NEAR CAE/CUB...AND A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO
THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. ONCE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES LATER TONIGHT...FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO ANY
FOG/STRATUS THREAT FOR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED. LATEST GUIDANCE
GENERALLY POINTING TO POSSIBILITIES OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

AFTER ANY MORNING RESTRICTIONS...EXPECT VFR WEDNESDAY. SOME DRIER
AIR WILL ENTER OUR FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH CHANCES
OF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH. CHANCES TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$