Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 012054
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
452 PM EDT WED OCT  1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME PATCHY FOG TOWARDS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
IN LOW LYING NORMALLY COLDER AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT FALLING TO
AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...LASTING INTO THE EARLY PART OF THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
UPSTATE...BUT EXPECTING THE CWA TO REMAIN DRY DURING THE THURSDAY
NIGHT TIME PERIOD. AS FOR FRIDAY...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOISTURE
INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE PASSAGE. SHOWERS...WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ARE EXPECTED AT SOME POINT THROUGH THE DAY
AND EVENING HOURS FRIDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO SOME STRONGER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY DURING
THAT TIME. AS FOR THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE...TIMING STILL A
LITTLE BIT OF AN ISSUE...WITH THE GFS BEING A LITTLE FASTER WITH
THE MOVEMENT THAN THE NAM.  FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR
UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE RAIN CHANCES THEN DIMINISHING
RAPIDLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT. SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS
THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. WINDS THROUGH THE DAY MAY BE
RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS AS IF THE DRY AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE ABLE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONGER
TERM PERIOD. UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION
SHOULD MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE INDICATING
THAT WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE COOLEST TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO AROUND 50.
THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST SO FAR THIS SEASON.
READINGS WILL BEGIN TO WARM BACK UP DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS
WILL RESULT IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WIND. CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR
CALM WIND TONIGHT WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG/STRATUS
TOWARD MORNING PARTICULARLY AT AGS...OGB...AND CAE. EXPECT VFR
THROUGH AROUND 09Z-10Z THEN MVFR TO IFR FROM 10-13Z THEN IMPROVING
QUICKLY TO VFR AFTER 13Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. POST FRONTAL GUSTY WINDS COULD
DEVELOP SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





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