Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
FXUS62 KCAE 301222
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
822 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016
Tropical Depression Bonnie currently along the central SC coast
will move very slowly to the northeast over the next couple of
days. This will keep plenty of moisture across the area along with
chances of mainly afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms. Showers and thunderstorms will remain in the
forecast late in the week and through the weekend as a frontal
boundary stalls over the region.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TD Bonnie will continue to effect the weather across the Midlands
and CSRA through today as it will slowly move to the northeast.
Morning radar composite shows a broad circulation in the vicinity
of Charleston/Georgetown counties. The deepest moisture continues
to feed northward on the east side up into eastern NC. But
additional band of light rain continue to rotate around the center
across the central/eastern Midlands. Due to the slow movement
expect this trend to continue through much of the day. Expect some
additional develop with daytime heating this afternoon. Best
chances for rainfall will be across the eastern Midlands/Pee Dee
regions. Further off to the southwest...towards the CSRA pops
will be lower. By tonight...the low will be tracking further off
to the northeast and expect best rain chances to push northeast
along with the the low. Guidance and current forecast for
afternoon temperatures looks reasonable and have stayed close to
consensus. Expect warmer temperatures across the CSRA with more
sun/less rain and slightly cooler temperatures toward the Pee Dee.
Tonight...have once again stayed close to consensus for overnight
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Tuesday through Tuesday night...should see more of a diurnal
trend with any rainfall as remnants of Bonnie are expected to be
along the southeastern coast of NC. Expect temperatures to begin
returning closer to normal by Tuesday. Overnight lows close to
guidance and a little above climo.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Longer range models in general agreement with the upper pattern
through the end of the week. The upper trough that has been
associated with Bonnie will be lifting slowly northeastward
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Behind this system some weak ridging
will be building in across the Southeast for Thursday and Friday.
Then for the Weekend a longwave trough will approach the region
from the upper mid-west/plains states. Both the ECMWF and GFS have
continued over the past few runs to produce a cutoff low as the
srn section of the trough slows and cuts off. Expect a diurnal
precip trend of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
through the end of the week. As the trough and associated surface
front move closer to the region...expect and increasing chance of
shra/tsra for the weekend. Have continued to stay close to
previous forecast for temperatures, with readings generally at or
slightly above normal through the period.
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Tropical Depression Bonnie nearly stationary near the central SC
coast and forecast to move very slowly to the NE along the coast.
WSR-88D network indicates isolated light rain showers across the
area with most of the activity closer to the coast. Expect gradual
improvement through the day...however Diurnal heating could
promote additional convection mainly around CAE/CUB/OGB.
Confidence in timing and coverage of convection currently too low
to include in tafs so will remain with VCSH through the evening
hours. With the low level moisture from recent rain there is
potential for fog or CIG restrictions late tonight/early Tuesday
morning...have include mention for AGS/OGB from 31/08z through the
end of the period.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Late night/early morning restrictions
possible each morning. Low confidence in restrictions in
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms through
Thursday...with increasing chances Friday and Saturday.