Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS62 KCAE 300617
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
217 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO
OUR REGION TODAY...AND REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL
BE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE REGION REMAINS BETWEEN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THE
CLOSED OFF LOW SPINNING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A GOOD PLUME OF MID AND UPPER MOISTURE
BEING FUNNELED NORTHWARD BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE LOW. AT THE
SURFACE...AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. DRIER AIR STILL BEING INDICATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND AREAS NORTH...WHILE MORE MOISTURE AND HIGHER
DEWPOINTS ARE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CSRA. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD TODAY. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND LOW-COUNTRY.
MAJORITY OF THIS APPEARS TO BE MAINLY SPRINKLES AT THIS
TIME...HOWEVER MODELS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS
IN THOSE AREAS...WHILE GOING SLIGHTLY LOWER ON POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE REGIONS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES
TODAY...WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO START OFF THE DAY...AND WITH
THE EXPECTED AREAS OF RAINFALL...WOULD EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE
BELOW NORMAL. MODELS GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES...WITH MOST NUMBERS
SHOWING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S... AND HAVE TRENDED THAT
DIRECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON MONDAY UPPER RIDGE TO THE SE BUILDS TOWARDS THE COAST AS UPPER
ENERGY LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH. WEAK UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW SHIFTS
WEST TOWARDS THE LOWER MISS VALLEY/W GULF. REMNANT CIRCULATION
FROM FORMER TROP CYCLONE ERIKA EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING WHETHER IT WILL
REGENERATE. FOR THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THERE APPEARS TO BE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE GIVEN CONTINUED LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH WOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS INDICATE WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN TO THE WEST WITH
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE E/SE CONTINUING TO SLOWLY BUILD
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES WITH
REMNANT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER TROP CYCLONE ERIKA...AS
IT COULD POSSIBLY REGENERATE OVER THE GULF AND DRIFT NORTH. FOR
NOW...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL INDICATE
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND NEAR CLIMO TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WV LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE N/CNTRL GULF OF
MEXICO NR MOBILE. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ON EAST SIDE OF SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO PUMP PLENTY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS AND CSRA. LOW LEVELS STILL REMAIN RATHER DRY WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 60S SOUTH TO MIDDLE 50S NORTH AND CENTRAL.
EXPECT MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT
FOG/LOW CEILINGS AROUND SUNRISE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY VFR
CONDITIONS PERSIST AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HAVE GRADUALLY BROUGHT CEILINGS DOWN THROUGH THE PERIOD
BUT ABOVE MVFR CONDITIONS. AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...MOISTURE WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY. CONFIDENCE LOW ON ARRIVAL OF
SHRA/TSRA BUT HAVE INCLUDED VCSH BY 08Z AT AGS/DNL...AND AFTER 14Z
AT THE REMAINING SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS PLUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.