Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 020010
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
810 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE
WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE HOT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND CSRA STARTING
TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER STILL AT OR JUST ABOVE 2.00 INCHES WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA SOUTHWARD TO
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS THE
UPSTATE AND NORTH MIDLANDS. WILL END POPS ACROSS THE NORTH
MIDLANDS BUT CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE CSRA WITH HIGHER POPS THIS
EVENING. DOWNDRAFT CAPE LOWERING ACROSS THE SOUTH...SO SEVERE
POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE.

VERY SLOW STORM MOTION WILL PROVIDE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THROUGH
THE EVENING. TREND OF HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAS BEEN TO END
CONVECTION AROUND MIDNIGHT.

EXPECT SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AROUND OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL
HELP LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL AND EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. EXPECT WEAK LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING TO REMAIN IN THE AREA...SOMEWHERE ALONG THE I-20
CORRIDOR TOWARDS THE PIEDMONT REGION. STRONG HEATING ONCE AGAIN
TOMORROW AND WEAK SURFACE SURFACE CONVERGENCE SHOULD HELP INITIATE
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. BUT MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING/WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE. THE NAM
AND GFS MOS HAVE LOW POPS WITH THE CONSENSUS AROUND 20 PERCENT AND
HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS. IT WILL REMAIN HOT. LEANED JUST
ABOVE THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON RECENT
VERIFICATION. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ARE IN
THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAKENING FRONT STALLING BEFORE REACHING
THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
FRONT MAY REACH THE AREA LATE IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD BY
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS INDICATE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
CONTINUING AND ACTUALLY STRENGTHENING AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
BY LATE IN THE WEEK BEFORE HEIGHTS BEGIN TO LOWER AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS WESTWARD BY THE WEEKEND. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS
SHOW ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH POPS IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL STAY WITH THIS CURRENT TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND AROUND SUNRISE.

CONVECTION HAS PUSHED EAST OF CAE/CUB WITH THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING JUST WEST OF AGS/DNL. EXPECT THE CONVECTION AROUND
AGS/DNL TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND END BY 02Z.
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAF PERIOD REMAINS FOG AND STRATUS THREAT.
THREAT IS CURRENTLY LOWERED DUE TO CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ACROSS THE
REGION WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AS SUCH
HAVE REMAINED WITH IFR CONDITIONS FOR AGS AND MVFR ELSEWHERE. FOG
AND STRATUS WHICH DEVELOP WITH ERODE WITH SUNRISE AND MIXING WITH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD VFR. EXPECT CUMULUS TO AGAIN DEVELOP
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION OF CONVECTION ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








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