Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 260525
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
125 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TUESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR. A COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MUCH COLDER
AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PRESSURE RIDGE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL EXTEND
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN WEST OF
THE AREA. MODEL AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT CLEAR SKIES. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. NOCTURNAL COOLING
AND LIGHT WIND SHOULD HELP SUPPORT PATCHY FOG MAINLY NEAR BODIES
OF WATER LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
WILL BE NEAR THE AREA. THE PATTERN SUPPORTED THE WARMER HIGH
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. NOCTURNAL COOLING AND LIGHT WIND SHOULD HELP
SUPPORT PATCHY FOG MAINLY NEAR BODIES OF WATER LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAYED DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO
DOMINATE TUESDAY. THE MODELS SHOWED A COLD FRONT IN THE FORECAST
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT JUST SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY. THE ECMWF INDICATED MORE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT COMPARED TO THE GFS. WE LEANED TOWARD
THE LOWER GFS MOS POPS BECAUSE OF THE INITIAL DRYNESS. ALSO...
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT APPEARED WEAK. THE MODELS INDICATED MUCH COLDER
AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEKEND BEHIND A
REINFORCING DRY FRONT. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.

A DRY ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE. LOW LEVEL AIR MAY BE TOO DRY FOR
SIGNIFICANT FOG. BUFKIT INDICATES A 20 KT BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FROM
THE NW OVERNIGHT...DUE TO SOME PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR NE. THIS WOULD HELP
TO WORK AGAINST FOG FORMATION AS WELL. PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE AT
FOG PRONE AGS...BUT CHANCE APPEARS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE AGS TAF
AT THIS TIME.

THE TROUGH OR WEAK DRY FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTH DOWN THE EAST COAST
TOWARDS OUR NE FORECAST AREA BY LATER TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A DRY ATMOSPHERE REMAINING IN
PLACE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE ANY AVIATION CONCERNS.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
FOG POSSIBLE AT FOG PRONE AGS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. FOG POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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