Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 010056
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
856 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A pressure ridge will extend from the Atlantic westward into the
Gulf of Mexico through the weekend. A weak pressure trough will
linger in the forecast area. The pattern supports mainly scattered
diurnal thunderstorms with temperatures a little above normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Showers and thunderstorms are slowly weakening across the area.
Think the main threat for the remainder of the evening will be
locally heavy rain due to slow-moving storm cells and high PW
values. Majority of convection has diminished, with lingering
showers still over portions of the area. With the boundary still
across the area and remaining outflow boundaries intersecting some
activity could linger through midnight or so. Overnight lows will
generally be in the lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The models display lee-side troughing in the forecast area with
surface ridging to the south. A flat upper pattern is shown.
Expect thunderstorms mainly associated with heating and
convergence into the trough or into a possible seabreeze front
that may move well inland. The MAV and MET MOS have pops 10 to 30
percent. The NAM and GSP indicate h5 temperatures near -6 C.
Instability will likely remain weak and the NAM has surface-based
LI`s about -4 indicating a diminished risk of severe thunderstorms.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The GFS and ECMWF display surface ridging extending from the
Atlantic westward into the Gulf of Mexico through the medium-range
period. The models keep a frontal zone mainly just north of the
forecast area with lee-side troughing in the area. There may be
upper support at times with a series of mid-level shortwave
troughs brushing the area. The GFS ensemble mean has pops 20 to 30
percent during the period. The GFS, ECMWF, and EKD MOS have pops
10 to 40 percent with no particular day more favored for
precipitation. The MOS supports above normal temperatures during
the period.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions expected through the period.

Convection continues to slowly diminish across the area this
evening. Have removed mention of thunder from all TAFs given
latest radar trends. Have remained with MVFR conditions at all
taf sites during the early morning and sunrise hours as moisture
from rainfall will become trapped under the inversion.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible in diurnal
convection each afternoon through the period along with late
night/early morning patchy fog.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$


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