Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 061703
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
103 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE TO OUR EAST TUESDAY...THEN AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION THROUGH LATE
WEEK...LEADING TO A DRIER WARMER PATTERN. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
SHIFT TO OUR EAST DURING THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CENTER OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW IS ACROSS WESTERN OH AND CONTINUING
TO MOVE NORTHEAST. WV ALSO SHOWS ADDITIONAL S/W ENERGY MOVING
ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW ACROSS
NRN GA/SRN APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CLOSED LOW IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE OPENING UP AND MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY. WEAK SURFACE LEE-TROUGH LINGERING OVER OUR REGION
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE THE BEST FOCUS FOR ANY SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...BEST MOISTURE WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH DRIER AIR TOWARDS OUR NORTH AND
WESTERN AREAS. THINK AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION WILL BE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY AND ALSO ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. SPC WRF SHOWS
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPSTATE THEN MOVING EAST INTO THE
MIDLANDS/CSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES
TODAY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO OUR E AND
NE... WITH UPPER HEIGHTS BEGINNING TO RISE SLIGHTLY...AS UPPER
HIGH TO OUR SE BEGINS TO BUILD TO THE NORTH. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER EAST INTO OUR FA WITH BEST MOISTURE
LINGERING NEAR THE COAST. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND DIURNAL HEATING
EXPECTED TO PROVIDE CHANCES POPS MAINLY NEAR THE SOUTH AND EAST FA
AIDED BY SEA BREEZE...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER HIGH TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE
WEEK...CONTINUING TO GENERALLY REDUCE DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TO SLIGHT CHANCE...POSSIBLY LOW END CHANCE S/E FA NEAR
SEA BREEZE...AND PROVIDE A WARMING TREND THU/FRI. TEMPS COULD
POSSIBLY APPROACH 100 BY LATE WEEK AS H85 DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS.
MODELS INDICATING THE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT TO OUR WEST
DURING THE WEEKEND...WITH UPPER TROUGHINESS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EAST COAST. ANY UPPER IMPULSES...SURFACE BOUNDARIES...OR REMNANT
MCS...SLIPPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION COULD PROMOTE CHANCE POPS
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

CONVECTION WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
TODAY AND HAVE INCLUDED VCSH FOR ALL TAF SITES. WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AT 8 KNOTS OR LESS. A 15 TO 20 KNOT
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE
AREA SHOULD HELP LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$


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