Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 202341
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
741 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER EASTWARD TONIGHT. A
WEAK TROUGH MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT BUT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED. THE PRESSURE RIDGE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DEVELOPING SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. DRY AIR IS
IN PLACE. SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDINESS
SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT. IT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER TONIGHT
COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. AIR MASS MODIFICATION HAS OCCURRED WITH
WARMING IN THE WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE
HIGH AND DEVELOPING TROUGH. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE
WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER ENERGY WILL DIVE DOWN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY...WITH
AN UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE INITIALLY IN PLACE...IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR
THAT MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED FOR OUR
REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
ALL OF THE GFS AND NAM MOS WITH POPS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. USED
THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTHEAST...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY
RIDGES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED
COOL AND DRY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MOST OF THE STRATOCUMULUS FROM THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEGUN TO
DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET....MAKING WAY FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS. CANNOT RULE OUT
FLUCTUATING RESTRICTIONS AT FOG PRONE AGS...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE APPEARS QUITE LIMITED. HAVE HANDLED WITH A TEMPO GROUP
FOR NOW AND WILL REFINE AS CONFIDENCE IMPROVES. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVER THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT OR CALM THIS EVENING AND
WILL AND PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER DAYBREAK
TUESDAY.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





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