Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 222208
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
608 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THURSDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL SHIFT EAST TONIGHT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUES IN THE EASTERN STATES. THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK
LIFT. GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE...WE FORECASTED JUST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS LATE TONIGHT. MOS TEMPERATURES WERE CONSISTENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE AREA THURSDAY. MOISTURE
APPEARS SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM. FORECASTED LOW POPS.
SHEAR WILL BE STRONG BUT INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK.
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A CONTINUATION OF THE ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN. PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING SHORTWAVE RIDGE
WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. HOWEVER
THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES WILL PHASE WITH SOME NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND RESULT IN
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE PLAINS STATES. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
EASTWARD AND STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL
INCREASE MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE GULF
COAST STATES AND SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY RESULTING IN LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AT THIS POINT SO
WILL CARRY SHOWERS FOR NOW.

A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND SUNDAY
AS A DEAMPLIFYING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIVES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE BEST MOISTURE LOOKS TO
REMAIN TO THE NORTH SO ONLY CARRYING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY.

SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF AN EARLY WEEK SYSTEM LATE
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE INCREASED CHANCES
OF RAIN DURING THAT PERIOD AS ANOTHER SOUTHWEST CLOSED LOW DRIFTS
EAST AND PHASES WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND MOVES EASTWARD.
FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENCE WITH CHANCE POPS THOUGH THE
CHANCE OF RAIN COULD GO HIGHER AS WE NEAR THAT EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS TO OUR SOUTH...WITH FRONT TO OUR NORTH.
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS WITH CLEAR SKIES. WINDS
DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...STILL EXPECT STRATO-CUMULUS OR
ALTO-CUMULUS BROKEN DECK AS FRONT MOVES INTO AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE
FOR VFR CEILINGS HIGH. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING BUT
LOW THREAT TO RESULT IN RESTRICTIONS. WIND SHIFT EXPECTED AROUND 12Z
AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST BUT EXPECTED
TO BACK WEST-NORTHWEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS UPPER ENERGY INTERACTS WITH THE
SLOW MOVING FRONT. RAIN AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND PLUS ASSOCIATED RESERVOIR RELEASES
HAS RESULTED IN FLOODING AT SOME OF THE RIVER FORECAST POINTS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





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