Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 281534
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1134 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE GULF COAST TODAY AND
SLOWLY MOVE EAST...BRINGING RAIN INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND AN UPPER TROUGH WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE TUESDAY...AND
PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLOUDINESS REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA AS WEAK RIDGE OVER THE AREA AND
LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW COMBINES WITH SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL
FLOW. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE CONVERGES OVER THE AREA.
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN APPROACHING THE CSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH
ISENTROPIC ASCENT TOWARD DAYBREAK THE CSRA AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS
WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER ENERGY OVER SE TX WILL SHIFT EAST AND PROMOTE A LOW
PRESSURE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WHICH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST AND PASS SOUTH OF OUR FA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL PROVIDE PRECIPITATION APPROACHING OUR FA FROM THE
WEST TONIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION COVERAGE EXPECTED
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE PROGGED...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES.
MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL POPS. MODELS TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH WITH
LOW TRACK...SO EXPECT MAINLY RAIN OR SHOWERS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDER MAINLY SOUTH FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING AND DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW...COUPLED WITH UPPER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH SECOND UPPER
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH FROM THE NW...TO PROVIDE LINGERING
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER CHANCES TUESDAY. UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST
AND SOME UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO THE REGION WED/THU. DRIER AIR
TO ENTER THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST.
MODELS TRENDING DRIER WED/THU WITH LESS INDICATIONS OF LINGERING
WEDGE-LIKE CONDITIONS. GFS/ECMWF APPEAR TO BE SPEEDING UP THE
TIMING OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH/FRONT FOR FRI/FRI NT TIME
FRAME...WHICH BOTH MODELS NOW HAVE MOVING THROUGH BY 12Z SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AFTER 29/04Z.

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL BEGIN PUSHING
MOISTURE NORTHWARD AS NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE CONTINUES TO KEEP
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH CLOUDS LOWERING TO MVFR AT AGS/DNL AFTER 29/04Z...AND
CAE/CUB/OGB 29/06Z. EXPECT FURTHER LOWERING TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY
WITH RAIN MOVING INTO THE AREA. CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE SHOWERS IN TAFS ATTM...HOWEVER HAVE REMAINED WITH VCSH AT
AGS/DNL AFTER 29/09Z. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY AT 7 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD
MVFR OF IFR CONDITIONS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED
WITH A FRONTAL ZONE CROSSING THE AREA. MVFR/IFR MAY ALSO OCCUR
BEHIND THE FRONT AS A SURFACE WEDGE PATTERN ONCE AGAIN SETS UP
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$








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