Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 311008
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
608 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING BACK A LOW CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION IN GA AND THE UPSTATE OF SC HAVE MOVED INTO THE
NORTHERN CSRA. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE EASTWARD PROGRESS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY THIS MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE CWA AGAIN THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY PASSES WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR
ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN WEST AND NORTH THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEA-BREEZE SHOWERS PUSHING INTO THE EAST LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE. AFTERNOON
TEMPS CONTINUE RATHER HOT...AND DUE TO THE COOL BIAS OF THE MODELS
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AM INCLINED TO CONTINUE WITH GOING A FEW
ABOVE THE MET NUMBERS...AND WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE MAV. THIS
BRINGS MIDDLE 90S ONCE AGAIN...ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
MAY SLOW THE TEMPERATURE CLIMB DURING THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S/W ENERGY ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
FLATTEN OUT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT THE UPPER RIDGE STILL
HANGS IN STRONG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. FLOW RETURN TO MORE SOUTH BY
MONDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE POPS ALONG WITH LACK OF UPPER TRIGGERS
INDICATING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH ONLY SOME WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE ACTION EACH DAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO BE IN
THE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL UPPER
PATTERN IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...BUT RIDGE STILL HOLDS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AS S/WS MOVE W TO E IN THE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES AND REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS PW VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES. PW VALUES DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES.
WITH THE PASSING OF EACH S/W...MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA A WEAK
BOUNDARY TRIES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY HAVE
CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY SW/NE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY
LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. STILL LOOKS TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE/NO UPPER SUPPORT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. NORMALS HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EASTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BROUGHT SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE CSRA THIS MORNING...WHICH MAY IMPACT
AGS/DNL TAF SITES. WILL INCLUDE VCSH AT THIS TIME. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ACTIVITY HOLDING TOGETHER TO REACH CENTRAL MIDLANDS
SITES.

CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS MAY LOWER INTO THE MVFR/IFR
CATEGORY AT TIMES THIS MORNING. LOWEST CONDITIONS SHOULD BE RIGHT
AROUND SUNRISE. AFTER SUNRISE...FORECASTING ANY LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS
TO SLOWLY RISE AND MIX OUT BY 16Z. REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
VFR WITH POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG EACH NIGHT. SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...









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