000
FXUS62 KCAE 150751
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
351 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A WARMING TREND WILL
OCCUR. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY
BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIS MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
UP FROM PRECIOUS NIGHTS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

TODAY...UPPER RIDGE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL
THE WEATHER. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE...
EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S. ONE OR TWO LOCATIONS MAY
ACTUALLY REACH 90. CAE HASN`T HIT 90 SO FAR THIS SPRING BUT WILL
GET CLOSE TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY WEATHER AND THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A LITTLE MORE MID-LEVEL
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY. HOWEVER
     LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE AND A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION APPEARS
LACKING. MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES VARY A BIT ON THURSDAY WITH
MAV GIVING CAE 92 WHILE THE MET SAYS 86. DECIDED ON MODEL BLEND
IN THE UPPER 80S AGAIN LIKE WEDNESDAY AS MORE CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP
HIGHS GENERALLY BELOW THE 90 DEGREE MARK. SAME FOR FRIDAY WITH
A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS APPEAR SIMILAR MOVING A SLOW MOVING/DE-
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS TO THE EAST BY THIS WEEKEND. MOISTURE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BY THE WEEKEND BUT FORCING FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO FOCUS NORTH OF SOUTH CAROLINA
CLOSER TO A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTH
CAROLINA. SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING WEST FROM THE ATLANTIC/WEAK LEE
SIDE TROUGH. GFS ENSEMBLE POPS INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCE AND MAINLY
DIURNAL...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.

WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD...WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR
S/SE...WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH RIDES BY TO OUR NORTH. BUFKIT PROJECTS
30 KNOTS SW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OVERNIGHT. THIS...ALONG WITH LOW
LEVEL AIR THAT IS STILL PRETTY DRY...WILL PRECLUDE FOG CONCERNS
FOR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOME CIRRUS MAY STREAM IN LATE DAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$