Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 212114
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
514 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL AGAIN BE A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AND BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LOW TO THE WEST HAS CLOSED OFF ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA...WHILE THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN A REGION WHERE
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS COMBINING WITH ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE...PWAT VALUES OVER 2 INCHES...AND IS RESULTING IN THE
CONTINUATION OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
CONTINUE WITH POPS IN THE LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL RANGES THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE SEVERE THREAT STILL LOOKS LIMITED. BIGGEST ISSUE
WILL STILL BE DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYERS AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
YIELDING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLOODING. EXPECT A
GENERAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND THE UPPER LOW SHIFTING FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL AGAIN STRUGGLE TO FALL MUCH
DUE TO CLOUD COVER...HIGH DEWPOINTS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AIR MASS REMAINS MOIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. BUFKIT SHOWS ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE.

MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY
TOMORROW. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE DURING THE
DAY ON AND CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD. BY WEDNESDAY...THE SYSTEM WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER
MS RIVER VALLEY AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH ANOTHER S/W MOVING
ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VALUES AROUND 2.0 INCHES AT TIMES. MODEL
SPECTRUM AND GUIDANCE SHOWING QUITE A RANGE WITH POPS FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HAVE GENERALLY GRADUALLY DECREASED POPS
SOMEWHAT...BUT REMAIN IN THE CHANCE/HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...AND NEAR A
CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MED RANGE MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO PERSIST WITH A CLOSED
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ANOTHER OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND
TROUGHING CONTINUING IN BETWEEN...MAINLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER.
MODELS INDICATE A REINFORCING SERIES OF S/W TO RE-DEVELOP/DEEPEN
THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE MODELS SHOW
A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE AREA DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH A
COLD FRONT NEAR THE REGION FRIDAY...THEN STALLING NEAR THE REGION
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS SUPPORT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

THE UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST HAS CLOSED OFF OVER ALABAMA WITH THE
FORECAST AREA ON THE EAST SIDE UNDER MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
BROAD DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
FORM AROUND...AND AFFECT...ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WILL GO WITH VCSH/VCTS AT MOST SITES...AND THEN INCLUDE A
TEMPO GROUP 21Z-24Z FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE LOW CLOUDS
AGAIN SET UP DUE TO HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY 08Z-10Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE 10Z-
14Z...BEFORE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS AT CAE/CUB/OGB.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL STORMS TO THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$






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