Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 171651
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1251 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH
TODAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL
BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY AND BE A LITTLE FARTHER OUT
TO SEA EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH DOMINATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BRINGING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. INCREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS A GULF LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS NEAR THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR TEMPERATURES SEEMS
REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND AN EXPECTED
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT. THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF AGREE
DEVELOPING A CUT-OFF H5 LOW...BUT THE NAM HAS THE PROCESS
OCCURRING LATER AND FARTHER EAST WITH LESS MOISTURE IN THE
FORECAST AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE CUT-OFF LOW
DEVELOPING WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE LESS PROGRESSIVE MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT UPPER-LEVEL LIFT
WITH AN H5 DIFLUENT PATTERN NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE
FARTHER INLAND. THERE IS A DRASTIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MOS POPS AND
TEMPERATURES WITH THE NAM MOS DRIER AND WARMER WITH ITS HIGH
TEMPERATURES. WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BECAUSE PREVIOUS RUNS WERE DRIER AND EXPECT
THERE WILL BE A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH THE HIGHEST MOISTURE
IN THE EAST PART.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OFFSHORE LOW JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. WE KEPT THE
DRY FORECAST FOR EASTER BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW BECAUSE THE TIGHT
MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA AND THE
MODELS MAY BE TOO FAST SHIFTING THE CUT-OFF LOW EASTWARD. DRY
RIDGING WILL LIKELY DOMINATE MONDAY. THERE HAS BEEN MODEL
CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PATTERN FOR MONDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY. AN
AVERAGE OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS SUPPORT POPS AROUND 30
PERCENT. DRYING BEHIND THIS FEATURE MAY DOMINATE WEDNESDAY. THE
AVERAGE GUIDANCE POPS WEDNESDAY WERE 15 TO 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST BRINGS VFR CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING. A DEVELOPING GULF LOW WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS AND WITH LOWERING BASES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH RAIN A GOOD BET FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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