Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
FXUS62 KCAE 192319
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
619 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017
High pressure and dry weather is forecast through Tuesday with
unsettled weather from Wednesday through the end of the week.
Temperatures are forecast to be well above normal for much of
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
The dry pressure ridge moving into the forecast area from the
west will extend through the area late tonight. It will be dry.
The NAM and GFS MOS support wind northwest near 10 mph this
afternoon and light tonight. Despite light wind and strong
nocturnal cooling tonight there is a diminished chance of fog
because of the dry air mass as indicated by the NAM and GFS MOS
plus SREF guidance. Followed the guidance consensus for the
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure ridge will be centered over the area Monday and
Monday night then move eastward Tuesday. Weak frontal boundary
will move toward the area from the northwest Tuesday as low
pressure develops in the far western Gulf of Mexico. The front
will move into the forecast area Tuesday night as the low tracks
into the central Gulf waters and becomes less organized. This
will result in slight chances of showers moving into the western
Midlands early Tuesday night and into the eastern Midlands by
daybreak Wednesday. Temperatures will be in the lower to middle
70s for daytime highs with overnight lows in the middle 40s to
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Models are in good agreement through Friday then diverge in the
handling of a low pressure system moving into the western Great
Lakes and cold front crossing the Southeast Friday and
Saturday. Remains of a diffuse front will be stretched across
the forecast area Wednesday then sag southeast of the area
Wednesday night as the low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico
further weakens. On Thursday the remains of the front will
return northward while the remains of the Gulf low tracks
eastward through the Bahamas. This will leave the area under
easterly flow and with pwat values increasing to near 1.5 inches
Friday into Friday night chances of showers and thunderstorms
will increase. Cold front will cross the area Saturday and
models continue to differ on strength of front as it tracks
across the Southeastern US. High pressure and drier air will
return to the region for Saturday night through Sunday.
Temperatures through the long term will continue well above
.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Dry high pressure will build over the area through the 24 hour
TAF period. VFR conditions are expected. Early morning fog is
not anticipated due to the dry air mass. Winds will be light
through the period.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK....Moisture associated with an
onshore flow may help bring widespread MVFR or IFR conditions
Tuesday through Thursday.