Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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705
FXUS62 KCAE 170550
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
150 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front has passed through the forecast area. High pressure
will build in behind the cold front along with cooler and drier
air for Tuesday through the end of the week. Moisture will begin
returning to the area late in the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Cold front has pushed through the forecast area, and the colder
and drier air is now moving into the cwa on strong northerly
winds. Forecast area will remain dry tonight. Skies now mostly
clear. Low temperatures tonight will be much cooler with mid 40s
to around 50, but slightly warmer along lake shores.

Winds tonight will remain strong across area lakes. Due to the warm
lake waters, a good amount of mixing should occur as the colder
air moves south through the night. This will allow a low-level
jet with speeds 25-35 knots to mix down to the lake. Due to
this, a Lake Wind Advisory is in effect overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will build into the Southeastern states on
Tuesday and Wednesday bringing sunny and cool conditions to the
area. The airmass will be dry with precipitable water values
around a quarter inch. Northeasterly surface winds at 8 to 14
mph on Tuesday will drop to around 6 mph or less Tuesday night.
Expect good radiational cooling conditions Tuesday night but
not perfect due to some expected mixing. Lows Tuesday night in
the lower to middle 40s. Highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s on
Tuesday with slightly warmer highs on Wednesday as the airmass
begins to moderate. Lows on Wednesday night in the upper 40s to
lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will remain over the area Thursday through
Saturday with dry weather expected. The airmass will modify with
warming temperatures expected as an upper ridge builds over the
region. Rain chances may increase late in the weekend and early
next week as the upper ridge and surface high pressure shift
offshore and moisture increases. Gradually warming temperatures
through the period with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s Thursday and Friday night and
50s to near 60 through the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High confidence in VFR conditions through the forecast period.

High pressure along with cooler and drier air continues building
into the terminals and will dominate the region through the TAF
period. Skies will remain clear through the period with the main
concern being gusty winds. Current KCAE VAD wind profile
shows 35 knots at 1kft and strong low level jet will persist
through the night so have continued with mention of LLWS. Winds
will become gusty around 15z as deep mixing commences resulting
in under northeasterly winds around 10 knots with gusts to 20
knots through 22z. Wind will subside late in the period as the
pressure gradient relaxes and an inversion develops.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts to aviation
expected expected Wednesday through Saturday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
SC...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.

&&

$$



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