Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS62 KCAE 190818

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
318 AM EST Mon Feb 19 2018

A frontal boundary south of the forecast area will lift north
as a warm front today. Bermuda high pressure will be in control
tonight through Thursday bringing well above normal temperatures.
Another frontal boundary is forecast to stall just north of the
forecast area on Friday.


A frontal boundary was stalled south of the CSRA early this
morning. High pressure off the Mid Atlantic coast was ridging
into the Midlands producing wedge-like conditions. Strongest
isentropic lift and associated rain has moved north of the
Midlands. Dry weather is forecast for today.

An onshore flow was producing widespread low cloudiness across
the region. Models show the frontal boundary to our south slowly
lifting north from mid-morning through this afternoon...with
clouds decreasing in the wake of the front from south to north.
Temperatures will range from the mid 60s over the northern
Midlands to the upper 70s in the southern CSRA.

Low level moisture will remain across the area tonight and with
a developing inversion and light winds aloft expect fog and low
clouds to develop during the early morning hours. Overnight
lows will be in the middle to upper 50s.


An upper level ridge off the southeast coast will strengthen
Tuesday. Surface high pressure over the western Atlantic will
continue ridging into the southeastern states. Mostly cloudy
skies Tuesday morning will be slow to clear. We should see
decreasing clouds during the afternoon. Went with guidance
consensus for afternoon highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

A weak upper level disturbance will move northward from the
Gulf of Mexico through central GA and into Upstate SC Tuesday
night. Although this short wave should remain west of the
forecast area...there is a potential for some showers mainly
across the Northern Savannah River Area and western Midlands
Tuesday night. Mild temperatures will continue with lows in the
low 60s.


No significant changes were made to the long term forecast.

Previous Discussion: Models continue in good agreement with
high pressure off the coast of the Carolinas and an upper level
ridge dominating the region. A cold front will move toward the
region Wednesday night and Thursday then stall just west of the
forecast area as the high pressure and upper level ridge push
the system northward. The front will move northward Thursday
night through early Saturday with the next front approaching
Saturday night and Sunday. Have taken a cautious approach for
Saturday night and Sunday as the GFS remains more progressive
while the ECMWF again keeps the front just to the northwest of
the area. Temperatures through the long term will be well above


Frontal boundary across southern Ga is forecast to move north
into the region overnight, but high pressure wedge has been slow
to erode. Ceilings have lowered to MVFR, and are expected to
lower to IFR after 08Z. Highest chance of LIFR appears to be
near AGS and OGB. Fog is still in the forecast for morning, but
if winds continue, this will become less likely. If the front
moves north of the terminals Monday afternoon, expect ceilings
to improve to MVFR and possibly VFR, and winds to shift to
southeast or south 5 to 10 knots.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Chance of showers/restrictions
through Wednesday associated with onshore flow, isentropic lift,
and then another approaching cold front.




$$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.