Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 250757
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
257 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TODAY WITH THE NEXT FAST
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST THIS
MORNING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AIR MASS DRY WITH SURFACE RIDGE IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS CAROLINAS. SOUTH
FLOW WILL RESULT IN WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND EXPECT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND SKIES MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH BULK OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH CLIPPER WEST OF REGION
THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE AS CLIPPER APPROACHES NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THE LOW WILL SWING TO COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND AWAY FROM THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.  THE COLD
FRONT AND AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH/SHORT WAVES WILL CROSS THE REGION
MONDAY. STEEPENING LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS MONDAY WITH COLD
ADVECTION. LIFT APPEARS WEAK AND MAINLY NORTH MIDLANDS/PEE DEE
THROUGH AFTERNOON. KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS MONDAY. EXPECT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE LIGHT. CUT MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY SLIGHTLY
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST GIVEN COLD ADVECTION/UPPER TROUGH. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST TUESDAY. A
FEW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND BASE OF
UPPER TROUGH MAINLY NORTH MIDLANDS/PEE DEE...BUT MOISTURE OVERALL
APPEARS LIMITED. TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY DUE TO COLD ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
INCREASING DIFFERENCES FOR FRIDAY. PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
REGION TUESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR BUILDING IN
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN THURSDAY AS THE GFS TRACKS LOW PRESSURE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. BOTH MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS BEING STRONGER WITH THE FRONT DUE TO
THE LOW CENTER MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF. ON FRIDAY THE
ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL REMAINS WITH THE GFS PUSHES THE COLD FRONT
OFFSHORE ALLOWING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. WITH THE MODEL
DIFFERENCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT SO CUT POPS
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. GFS ENSEMBLE POPS THROUGH PERIOD LOW.
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL END OF PERIOD AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL MOVED EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE TAF SITES THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITH MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA AFTER 26/00Z AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS MONDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. BREEZY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






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