Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 142348
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
748 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE FRONT WILL HELP MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE FRONT SUPPORTS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WITH DRIZZLE POSSIBLE. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. THE MODELS
GENERALLY DISPLAY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. NOCTURNAL COOLING WITH
HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO FOG BY MORNING. NOT MUCH OF
A DIURNAL DROPOFF IN TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER. LEANED
TOWARD THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE MONDAY. THE AIR
MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY AS THE WEDGE
PATTERN WEAKENS. THE MODELS KEEP THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT IN THE
AREA TUESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
REMAIN WEAK MONDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING.
THE NAM DISPLAYS SURFACE-BASED LI/S NEAR -3. INCREASE INSTABILITY
MAY OCCUR TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WITH FALLING H5
HEIGHTS. THE NAM LOWERS SURFACE-BASED LI/S TO NEAR -5. EXPECT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE TIMES OF MAXIMUM HEATING. THE MODELS KEEP THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND THIS MAY LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. USED THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE POP AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT SINKING SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS DISPLAY THE FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE REMAINING MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE NEARNESS OF THE OFFSHORE
FRONT WITH A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT ADDS UNCERTAINTY TO THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS...ECMWF.. AND EKD MOS HAVE
POPS 20 TO 40 PERCENT WEDNESDAY...AND 10 TO 20 PERCENT THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CSRA
UP THROUGH BAMBERG AND EASTER ORANGEBURG COUNTIES. NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW CONTINUES AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES.
HAVE KEPT CIGS MVFR/IFR THROUGH NEARLY ALL OF THE PERIOD. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS AND MODELS INDICATE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE
CEILINGS...CLOSE TO VFR...TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. RESTRICTIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH WEDGE IN PLACE. MODELS ARE INDICATING FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS
AND ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION. WINDS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LIGHT TOMORROW AND THIS WILL AID TO LINGER THE
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





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