833
FXUS61 KCAR 081427
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1027 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure will approach today then track across the
Gulf of Maine tonight. Low pressure systems will track well to
our south Thursday and again Friday as high pressure builds to
our north. An upper level trough of low pressure will remain
over the area this weekend.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Update...
High pressure will exit across the Maritimes today. At the same
time, surface low pressure along with the supporting upper
disturbance will approach from the west late. Clouds will
increase across the region through the afternoon. Rain chances
will also increase, from southwest to northeast, through the
afternoon. The best rain chances later this afternoon will
extend from west-central across Downeast portions of the
forecast area. The least rain chances later this afternoon will
occur across northern Aroostook county. High temperatures today
will generally range from the upper 50s to around 60 across the
forecast area early afternoon, with temperatures then starting
to fall with increasing clouds and rain chances. Have updated to
adjust for current conditions along with expected afternoon
temperatures, clouds and rain chances.

Previous Discussion...
Forecast models are in good agreement on a light rain across
the area. The highest amounts, of a quarter to a half inch, will
be over central areas with amounts likely under a tenth of an
inch across the north and a quarter inch Downeast through
tonight as the low center tracks to our south. Rain will
continue through the evening then taper to showers late tonight
as low pressure, tracking through the Gulf of Maine, continues
east, passing south of Nova Scotia.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A positively tilted upper level trough will sit over the area
Thursday, maintaining northeasterly flow and enough lift for
shower development through the day. The northeasterly flow will
downslope off of the higher terrain in New Brunswick, which
could keep northeastern Aroostook relatively dry with this
system. Downsloping may also help temperatures remain close to
average for this time of the year despite the cloud cover and
scattered rain showers. Highs on Thursday may reach into the
upper 50s across the northeast, but only into the lower 50s
further south.

The upper level trough axis will begin to pivot through the area
through Thursday night into the day on Friday as the trough
becomes neutrally tilted. From here, there are split solutions
on what will happen to the upper level pattern. The Canadian
guidance still holds onto the chance for a cutoff low that would
maintain a wetter pattern for the state, while the Euro has
jumped on board with other guidance to weaken the primary upper
level low as the next shortwave over the Great Lakes begins to
pick up energy. At the surface, this would result in a surface
low passing well south of the Gulf of Maine, with the primary
threat for measurable rainfall being Downeast, but even then
forecast rain amounts are light due to the separation from the
center of the lift and moisture. With northeast flow continuing,
high temperatures on Friday may reach into the upper 50s in
areas of downsloping, and lower 50s elsewhere.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A generally unsettled pattern continues through the weekend and
into early next week. Aloft, the next shortwave wraps into the
New England region, pulling the new axis of the upper level
trough neutrally tilted aloft through the region. With this
primary source of lift, there is likely to be diurnally-driven
rain showers each afternoon, even if the primary surface low
misses the area to the south once more. That said, there is
still uncertainty in the strength of the high pressure to the
north through this time, and a weaker high pressure could allow
for more rainfall to move into the area. In comparing ensemble
guidance with climatology through early next week, no strong
signals exist, so the forecast does not stray far from
climatology through this time period.
&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Across northern areas, generally VFR today with
increasing rain chances this afternoon. Across Downeast areas
VFR this morning, then MVFR developing this afternoon with
rain. MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, regionwide tonight with rain
early then tapering to showers late. Variable winds 5 to 10
knots today. East/northeast winds 5 to 10 knots early tonight,
becoming northeast/north 10 to 15 knots late.

SHORT TERM:
Thursday...VFR across the north, with MVFR/IFR early at Downeast
terminals before cigs lift to VFR through the day. -SHRA early
in the north, lasting through the day Downeast. Patchy fog
possible early Thursday, especially south of KPQI. NE winds 5 to
10 kts.

Thursday night...VFR across all terminals, and a slight chance
for rain showers Downeast. Light NE winds around 5 kts.

Friday...VFR conditions likely across all terminals, with rain
showers possible through the day, though most likely across the
Downeast region. Winds NE at 5 to 10 kts, and gusts briefly near
20 kts at Downeast terminals Fri afternoon.

Friday night through Saturday night...VFR, with occasional MVFR
cigs possible. A chance of rain showers. N to NE winds around 5
to 10 kts.

Sunday...VFR/MVFR early, with IFR likely in any rain, especially
Downeast. Winds 5 to 10 kts could shift SE depending on the
track of the storm.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels today
through tonight. Rain this afternoon through early tonight,
tapering to showers late.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will generally remain below small
craft advisory criteria through the extended. Wind gusts may
approach 25 kts on Thursday, and could exceed 25 kts briefly
through early Friday morning as a storm approaches south of the
Gulf of Maine. Seas may approach 5 ft this weekend. A chance for
rain showers continues through at least Friday.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Norcross/Bloomer
Short Term...AStrauser
Long Term...AStrauser
Aviation...Norcross/AStrauser
Marine...Norcross/AStrauser