Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 180000
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
600 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

.AVIATION...
The positions of an upper level low off to the west and a
stationary front along the upper TX Coast will leave North and
Central Texas in an overrunning pattern for the next 24 to 36
hours. Increasing isentropic ascent associated with a leading
shortwave has lead to a large swath of precipitation, which is
currently approaching the DFW area from the west and south.
Precipitation is mainly in the form of rain, but with modest
amounts of elevated instability present, isolated embedded
thunderstorms will be possible for the next several hours as the
shortwave moves northwest across the region. Waco is currently
experiencing a break in the weather, but an additional area of
rain with isolated storms over South-Central TX will affect KACT
by 02Z, then continue northward into the Metroplex later this
evening.

In addition to the occasional bouts with elevated convection,
ceilings will be on the decrease during the overnight hours due
to persistent overrunning conditions. All locations are expected
to lower to IFR between 06Z and 12Z, with these conditions
continuing most of the day Wednesday. There could be some minor
improvements during the afternoon hours Wednesday, but a return to
IFR will occur Wednesday evening. Conditions will finally clear
out Thursday as the upper low swings east across the State.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017/
With upper troughing entrenched over the Desert Southwest, a deep
tropical plume downstream has kept North and Central Texas cloudy
today, preventing the shallow postfrontal air mass in place from
moderating today. The richest moisture will remain to our
southeast, but as upglide steadily moistens the column above the
frontal inversion, showers will become more numerous into the
evening hours. A disturbance emerging from Chihuahua is
responsible for the increase in activity across the Concho Valley
and Big Country. As this impulse swings through the region
overnight, widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms will
affect nearly all of North and Central Texas. Marginal lapse rates
aloft will keep showers the primary convective mode, and
lightning will be the only threat with any storms.

The convective elements will result in variable amounts across
the region. Mean areal totals overnight will generally be 1/4 to
1/2 inch across the northwestern half of the CWA, with many areas
in Central and East Texas topping one inch. It is difficult for
soils to dry out this time of year, and much of the region is
still soggy from the Sunday deluge. The deep unidirectional flow
above the frontal layer will favor training echoes. While
widespread flash flooding is not anticipated, isolated issues may
arise, particularly where training of heavier activity occurs. The
stream of precipitation will steadily shift eastward early
Wednesday morning, the bulk of the convection will be within the
southeastern half of our CWA after daybreak.

Upglide will continue throughout the day on Wednesday, but the
quality of the moisture within it will vary considerably from
northwest to southeast. Cloud cover will persist regionwide, and
high temperatures will only top Tuesday`s values by a handful of
degrees at best. But additional rounds of precipitation will be
confined to our southeastern zones Wednesday afternoon/evening. As
the trough axis to our west finally passes through on Thursday,
the precipitation will come to and end across the entire region.
Southwest winds and clearing skies will allow temperatures to
reach the 70s in many areas.

The mild weather will persist into the weekend in advance of the
next storm system. Guidance continues trending toward a more
powerful closed low, possibly tracking right through North Texas
Saturday night. There is still considerable spread among ensemble
members, and the available moisture in many of the scenarios
appears inadequate for strong/severe convection. However, if you
have any outdoor plans this weekend, keep abreast of the forecast
as the event approaches.

25

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    46  56  45  70  49 /  90  30  10   5   0
Waco                46  57  43  71  47 /  90  60  20   5   0
Paris               46  55  45  64  47 /  80  50  20  10   5
Denton              43  56  43  68  44 /  80  20  10   5   0
McKinney            45  55  43  67  45 /  80  40  10  10   0
Dallas              47  57  47  70  49 /  90  40  10  10   0
Terrell             46  57  45  69  48 /  90  50  20  10   0
Corsicana           47  57  48  70  50 / 100  80  30  10   0
Temple              46  57  44  72  49 / 100  60  30   5   0
Mineral Wells       43  56  42  72  44 /  80  20  10   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

30/79



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