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000
FXUS64 KFWD 252355
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
655 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017


.AVIATION...
A ridge of high pressure will keep VFR conditions for the
forecast period. However, MVFR conditions will be possible between
12Z and 16Z at the ACT TAF site as the low level jet develops
overnight and brings stratus from Central Texas. The direction of
the low level jet should keep MVFR ceilings south of the
Metroplex TAF sites.

As daytime heating and mixing occurs MVFR ceilings near ACT
should lift and VFR conditions will resume through the remainder
of the forecast period. At all TAF sites, a south wind around 10
knots will prevail.

Villanueva

&&


.DISCUSSION... /Issued 230 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017/
The axis of an H5 ridge extends eastward from the Four Corners
region across the Southern Plains, and will be the primary
weather feature affecting North and Central Texas this week. The
increased subsidence today is evidenced by the lack of any
appreciable cumulus development and the absence of precipitation.
This should remain the case for the next few days, with perhaps an
isolated afternoon storm possibly overcoming the subsidence each
day.

The main affect will be the sweltering heat expected the rest of
the week due to subsidence from the ridge, plenty of solar
radiation and dewpoints in the lower and middle 70s. An ongoing
Heat Advisory remains in effect for the north-central counties.
The latest apparent temperature grid calculations indicate that
heat advisory criteria will be exceeded over a larger area as we
get into Wednesday and Thursday. The Heat Advisory will therefore
be expanded to include counties roughly along and east of a line
from Bowie to Killeen, including all of the Interstate 35
corridor. Some spots may also see heat indices climb above 110,
which technically reaches excessive heat warning criteria. At this
time, since these spots would likely be isolated and short-lived,
we plan on holding off on an Excessive Heat Watch or Warning.

By the end of the week, the ridge will begin to scoot west as
upper troughing intensifies across the Eastern CONUS. There may be
some outside chances for convection Friday through the weekend,
but subsidence across the eastern flank of the ridge is forecast
to remain fairly strong though Sunday.

By Monday, the ridge axis retrogrades even farther as an upper
trough drops southward in the north flow aloft. The result will be
increasing chances of rain next Monday and Tuesday, along with
some cooler and drier air advecting in from the north. Medium
range models hint that this type of pattern will remain intact
through at least the middle and perhaps the latter part of next
week.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    79  99  80 100  81 /   5   5   0   5  10
Waco                78 100  77 100  78 /   5   5   0   5   5
Paris               74  95  77  98  77 /   5   5   0   5  20
Denton              77  98  78 101  79 /   5   5   0   5  10
McKinney            77  99  78  98  78 /   5   5   0   5  10
Dallas              79 100  81 100  82 /   5   5   0   5  10
Terrell             75  97  77  99  78 /   5   5   0   5  10
Corsicana           76  97  77  98  78 /   5   5   0   5   5
Temple              76 100  76 100  77 /   5  10   0   5   5
Mineral Wells       75  98  76 100  77 /   5   5   0   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon Wednesday to 8 PM CDT Thursday for
TXZ107-122-123-131-132-135-144>148-157>162-174-175.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ091>095-102>106-
117>121-133-134.

&&

$$

22/25