193
FXUS64 KFWD 170500
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1200 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Tonight through Friday Night/

After a brief reprieve from showers and thunderstorms this
evening, additional showers and a few thunderstorms will continue
to move in from the west overnight. This activity will be moving
into relatively stable air currently across North and Central
Texas. Therefore, we don`t anticipate much in the way of severe
weather, but we can`t rule out a strong storm with gusty winds or
small hail. We will maintain the Flood Watch through the night,
but most of the rain associated with the activity overnight will
likely not cause too many additional flooding problems.

Extensive clouds and patchy fog overnight will keep temperatures
generally in the 60s. The only exception will be across the far
west where clouds will partially clear, allowing for lows to fall
into the upper 50s.

Friday will be a much less active day than today with most
locations not seeing any additional rainfall. However, we will
maintain some low chance PoPs (20%-40%) generally north of I-20
due to the passage of a trailing piece of shortwave energy.

Although clouds will linger for part of the day Friday, there
will still be some afternoon sun, allowing temperatures to warm
into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Temperatures will steadily fall
after sunset Friday under a mostly clear sky. The clearing sky and
wet ground will result in patchy fog, especially overnight through
Saturday morning.

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 300 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024/
/Friday Night Onward/

Any lingering showers and storms (from the slow-moving upper low
responsible for the ongoing precipitation) will end Friday night
as the system transitions into an open wave while exiting to our
east. Light winds, clearing skies, and shallow moisture will
likely lead to patchy fog development Saturday morning.
Visibilities should quickly improve mid to late morning, followed
by a warm and sunny Saturday afternoon with highs in the upper
80s to lower 90s.

A warming trend will continue for the rest of the weekend into
early next week as a mid level ridge strengthens overhead.
Temperatures will be generally 5 to 10 degrees above normal
Sunday through Tuesday, with highs ranging from the upper 80s in
the southeast to the middle 90s across the western zones. A deep
southerly fetch will draw Gulf moisture northward through the
region, increasing dewpoints by a degree or two each day. Hot and
humid conditions will be the result, with Tuesday being
particularly oppressive as heat indices climb to around 100 for
areas along and south of I-20.

The ridge will actually begin to weaken on Tuesday as a shortwave
trough moves from the Rockies into the Plains. This will send a
cold front south into North Texas Tuesday late afternoon or
evening. Compressional warming ahead of the front is another
factor contributing to the hot and humid weather expected on
Tuesday.

The front will eventually provide a focus for shower and
thunderstorm development by Tuesday evening, aided by ascent
associated with the shortwave. The boundary will stall somewhere
across the CWA, providing a focus for additional thunderstorm
development as a second shortwave approaches on Wednesday.
Precipitation will wind down Wednesday evening, followed by yet
another opportunity for convection on Thursday as a third
shortwave moves east across the forecast area.

Strong flow aloft and abundant deep layer shear should allow some
of these storms to become severe in each case given sufficient
levels of instability (which will be in good supply each
afternoon). We will gather better details regarding timing,
location, and the specific severe weather threats as better
resolution model data becomes available early next week. Either
way, the front itself or the resulting precip should provide some
relief from the heat for the mid to late next week period.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/

Ceiling heights will be a challenge to forecast overnight since
low level flow is weak and numerous small scale boundaries remain
from earlier convection. The decoupled boundary layer is moist so
we do anticipate deteriorating flying conditions overnight with
weak surface winds. Guidance is in good agreement that VFR
ceilings late this evening will lower to MVFR overnight, falling
below 1000 ft briefly towards sunrise. Visibilities will also fall
towards sunrise in patchy fog. Extensive cloud cover should keep
visibilities above 1 mile. Ceilings and visibilities will improve
by mid-morning Friday, with all TAF sites seeing VFR conditions
by midday.

A few showers and storms will approach the TAF sites from the
west overnight, but stable air in place across the region will
keep coverage too limited to mention in this TAF package. Any
showers or storms Friday will likely stay north of the Metroplex
terminals, closer to the best large scale lift associated with
passing shortwave energy.

A north to northwest wind will prevail through Friday afternoon at
speeds generally less than 10 knots.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    61  83  67  89  69 /  50  20  10   0   0
Waco                61  81  66  87  69 /  50   5  10   5   0
Paris               62  81  63  85  65 /  40  40  20   5   0
Denton              59  81  62  88  66 /  40  30  10   0   0
McKinney            59  81  63  87  66 /  40  30  20   5   0
Dallas              60  84  66  89  69 /  50  20  10   5   0
Terrell             60  82  64  87  66 /  50  20  20   5   0
Corsicana           60  82  66  88  69 /  50  10  10   5   0
Temple              60  82  65  88  67 /  40   5  10   5   0
Mineral Wells       59  81  63  89  67 /  40  20  10   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Friday for TXZ101>104-116>122-130>135-
141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

$$