Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 191205

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
605 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

A large area of mainly MVFR stratus was along and southeast of
a line from Comanche to DFW to Bonham early this morning. While
most of the TAF sites had prevailing MVFR ceilings as of 1130Z,
FTW and AFW were just northwest of the cloud shield with VFR
conditions. Southwest flow will remain just above the surface
through the morning hours which will keep the stratus in place.
Some daytime mixing will erode the northern/western edge of the
stratus which should cause all of the Metroplex TAF sites to
become VFR between 16Z and 17Z. Waco on the other hand should stay
in the low clouds through the afternoon.

Gulf moisture will increase this afternoon and tonight which will
result in a gradual lowering of ceilings in Waco. The stratus
will also return to the Metroplex TAF sites during the evening
with low end MVFR likely during the overnight hours. There will
also be a potential for IFR at all sites, but wind speeds just off
of the surface should prevent ceilings from getting too low or
visibilities from falling below 3 miles.



.SHORT TERM... /Issued 405 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018/
/Today and Tonight/

A layer of stratus will remain over the southeast half of the
forecast area this morning as low pressure deepens over the
Central High Plains and draws moisture northward. The low clouds
have kept temperatures up overnight with many locations still well
above freezing as of 3 AM. We anticipate some mixing on the
northern edge of the cloud shield through the day, but overall,
the clouds will remain pretty close to where they currently are.
This will make the high temperature forecast for today a bit
challenging since the clouds will offset increasing low level warm
air advection. Therefore, afternoon highs across the southeast
will be generally in the upper 40s with lower 60s across the west.

A few light showers will be possible across the east/southeast
zones through the day as low level moisture increases. However,
large scale subsidence underneath a building upper ridge should
keep the chance of any measurable rainfall low.

Low level moisture will increase tonight with the development of
a 40 knot low level jet. Therefore, tonight will be cloudy,
breezy, and much warmer with a slight chance of showers along
with some patchy fog across the southeast. Low temperatures
tonight will be warmer than they have been the past several days
with mainly 40s across the entire region.



.LONG TERM... /Issued 405 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018/
/Saturday through Friday/
Saturday will be a breezy and warm day as Gulf moisture continues
to surge northward into a deep low pressure system approaching
from the west. Although a few showers will be possible in the east
Saturday, most locations will not see any measurable rain until
Sunday. High temperatures Saturday will be in the lower 70s in
the west where some afternoon sun is expected. The eastern zones
will only warm into the lower and middle 60s due to extensive
cloud cover.

The upper low will move into the Four Corners Saturday night with
increasing large scale lift across North and Central Texas. This
will result in a few more warm air advection showers overnight.

The better rain chances will arrive on Sunday when the upper low
lifts into the Central Plains and opens the door to a Pacific cold
front. The front will sweep across the region during the day and
bring a fairly quick shot of showers and thunderstorms. Although
surface based instability will be weak, abundant moisture and
shear will result in a chance for a few strong to marginally
severe storms mainly east of the I-35 corridor Sunday afternoon.
Strong and gusty winds will be the primary severe weather hazard.

As the front sweeps east across the region, strong and gusty west
winds will develop in its wake. The combination of adiabatic
warming, decreasing dewpoints, and increasing winds will result
in a high fire weather threat across the western zones. Since
fine fuels are in abundance due to the extended hard freeze in
recent days, we will issue a Fire Weather Watch generally west of
a line from a Gainesville to Weatherford to Hamilton from late
morning Sunday through Sunday evening.

The remainder of next week will be fairly quiet with dry, mainly zonal
flow aloft. Temperatures will be near or slightly above seasonal
normals with highs generally in the 50s to lower 60s and lows
mainly in the 30s and lower 40s.

The next rain chances will arrive Thursday night and continue
through Saturday with the approach and passage of another upper
trough and cold front.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    55  47  68  57  71 /   0  10   5  20  40
Waco                52  45  68  56  71 /   0  20  10  20  50
Paris               50  42  61  54  66 /   0  20  20  20  60
Denton              56  45  67  53  70 /   0   5   5  10  30
McKinney            53  45  66  54  69 /   0  20  10  20  40
Dallas              55  47  67  56  70 /   0  20  10  20  40
Terrell             50  45  65  57  69 /   0  20  20  20  60
Corsicana           49  46  67  56  70 /   0  20  20  20  60
Temple              50  45  68  55  71 /   5  20  10  20  60
Mineral Wells       61  43  71  51  70 /   0   0   5   5  20


Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
for TXZ091-092-100>102-115>117-129>132-141>143.



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