Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 210538

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1138 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

/06Z TAFs/

Moisture is beginning to creep back northward from the Gulf late
this evening on increasing low-level southwesterly winds. An
associated area of mainly VFR stratus across the Mid-Upper Texas
Coast is moving slowly northward, but rather veered flow around
925 mb should guide most of the better moisture/low CIGs to the
east of the TAF sites overnight. As a result, we`ve maintained a
VFR TAF at Waco, but we`ll continue to monitor trends overnight as
there is an outside potential of some very brief MVFR CIGs/VSBYs
Tuesday morning as the western fringes of the better moisture
graze the airfield.

A cold front will move into the region Tuesday afternoon, and will
result in an initially weak north-northeast wind shift at the
Metroplex sites towards 21/20z, and a few hours later at Waco.
Stronger pressure rises will not push through until later on
Tuesday evening, at which point winds will increase to around 15
kts with some occasional gusts to around 25 kts overnight.
Moisture will be in short supply with this front, so precipitation
is not anticipated, although some virga and associated turbulence
under FL150 will be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening.



.SHORT TERM... /Issued 320 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2017/

Tonight will be warmer with a slight breeze. Within continued
northwest flow aloft, high clouds will stream across the region,
increasing in coverage overnight. Ahead of the cold front that
arrives on Tuesday, south winds of 5-10 mph will prevail at the
surface, but a southwest 30-40 kt low level jet will occur around
the H925 level. The atmosphere is expected to decouple overnight,
so the strongest winds will stay above the surface, but they will
advect warmer temperatures in the H925-850 layer.

The south winds at the surface will continue to bring some
moisture northward. Dewpoints will increase into the 40s across
most of the region by 6 am Tuesday morning, and this will aid in
the warmer overnight lows in the 40s and around 50 degrees.
Some light fog may occur with this moisture advection across
parts of Central Texas, but it`s more likely we will see a low
cloud deck across our southern and southeastern counties. In
addition, a few sprinkles are possible in an area from Cameron to
Palestine, but did not include this mention in the worded



.LONG TERM... /Issued 320 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2017/
Unseasonably strong ridging near Baja will amplify through midweek,
resulting in northerly upper flow above Texas. This will maintain a
consistent supply of autumn cold fronts, the next of which will
arrive on Tuesday, which will bring an end to our warming trend. The
previous front on Saturday effectively scoured the Gulf, and the
moisture return in advance of Tuesday`s front will be insufficient
for any precipitation. NAM guidance continues to hint at some
postfrontal rain in our southeastern zones, but the moisture profile
and the flow above the frontal layer doesn`t seem to support this.
As a result, we`ll keep the forecast dry.

A chilly north wind will continue Wednesday morning when
temperatures dip into the 30s and 40s. High clouds may be dense
enough to limit sunshine and keep temperatures in the 50s regionwide
Wednesday afternoon. The surface high will finally transit the
region Wednesday night, and where its axis coincides with the
predawn hours, low-lying spots may see brief freezing temperatures.

The upper ridge to our west will deamplify late in the week as a
potent shortwave races through the northern tier of states, but
northwest flow will remain above our heads. This could help a weak
frontal boundary to move into North Texas on Thanksgiving Day, but
even if it were to invade, it shouldn`t significantly impact
temperatures. High temperatures Thursday will be near normal along
and east of the I-35 corridor, generally in the 60s. The greater
potential for temperatures in the 70s will be west of the I-35
corridor. While this may appear unusually warm for Thanksgiving,
Central Texas sees at least 70F on Turkey Day more than 40% of the
time. In the Dallas/Fort Worth area, 70s or 80s occur on
Thanksgiving almost a third of the time.

Another weak front will arrive on Saturday, but mild temperatures
will prevail throughout the holiday weekend. The upper ridge will
slide east early next week, and the unseasonably warm weather will
continue. Although the occasional front will remind us of the
season, above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation
are projected to dominate into early December.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    50  68  42  58  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                48  72  44  61  37 /   5   0  10   0   0
Paris               41  65  38  55  35 /   5   0   0   0   0
Denton              44  67  37  57  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            44  67  39  57  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              49  68  42  58  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             45  68  41  58  36 /   5   0   5   0   0
Corsicana           46  70  44  59  38 /   5   0  10   0   0
Temple              47  72  44  62  38 /   5   0  10   0   0
Mineral Wells       42  68  38  59  37 /   0   0   0   0   0




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