Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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541
FXUS64 KFWD 220910
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
410 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017


.DISCUSSION...
Water vapor imagery shows a fairly potent shortwave trough moving
through the Great Lakes region this morning. This disturbance will
help a cold front, which is currently draped across the Midwest
into central Kansas, slide southward into Oklahoma by this
afternoon. Meanwhile, ahead of the front across North Texas, it
will be another warm day today with highs in the mid to upper 90s
under partly cloudy skies. By later this evening, as stronger
height falls spread into the Red River region with the passing
trough axis, and convergence along the frontal boundary increases,
scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front
across much of southern Oklahoma. These will likely drift into
North Texas well after dark, although in a weakening state as wind
fields become rather weak. A few of the thunderstorms could be
strong early in the evening with the potential for gusty winds,
but the overall severe weather threat is rather low. Highest PoPs
will generally be from the Red River south to around I-20 into
early Wednesday morning.

On Wednesday, the front and any associated outflow boundaries from
earlier convection should be draped somewhere across the region,
although the guidance does have some spread in placement of the
boundary. A shortwave trough moving into the western U.S. will
result in falling pressures in the lee of the Rockies by Wednesday
afternoon which would tend to want to pull the remnant boundary
northward. Meanwhile, the remnants of Harvey will likely emerge
from the Yucatan later today, and become much better organized
during the day Wednesday across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
If this occurs as the global guidance suggests, then a broad
northeasterly synoptic flow would likely result spreading into
North Texas, keeping a broad area of low level convergence
centered across the southern half of our CWA. Long story short,
we`ll keep scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast
through the day Wednesday given the available moisture and
expected low level convergence along the remnant frontal boundary.

Attention then quickly turns to the tropics for Thursday through
the weekend. The remnants of Harvey are expected to rapidly
develop into a tropical system over the western Gulf of Mexico
during this time. All of the global guidance is in fair agreement
with the track of this system inland somewhere from the Coastal
Bend into the middle Texas coast late Friday. This is a shift
northward from yesterday`s solutions but seems very plausible
given the strengthening subtropical ridge over the southwestern
U.S. and persistent troughing over the eastern U.S. We`re still a
little far out for specifics on the strength of the system, but it
does appear that at least parts of North and Central Texas could
be impacted by this system by Friday into the weekend. Based on
the latest forecast tracks by the global guidance and with support
from many of the ensemble members of the GFS/ECMWF and Canadian,
copious amounts of rainfall could fall from Central Texas into
southeast Texas through the weekend. Right now, it looks like most
of our area would be on the northern and northwestern periphery
of the storm, which is typically a more subsident and drier side.
It`s too early for details, but we`ll have generally high PoPs
from Friday night through Sunday across our far southern and
southeastern counties. We`ve capped PoPs at 60% for this forecast
cycle based on timing/track uncertainties, but it should be noted
that if a full blown tropical cyclone develops, very tight
gradients in PoPs/rainfall amounts are common especially on the
north/northwest sides of the systems. So, this will need to be
closely monitored over the next 48-72 hours and the forecast will
likely change many times. Temperatures will generally be below
normal through the weekend given the expected increase in cloud
cover and increased rain chances.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1154 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017/

Tranquil weather conditions prevail across the North and Central
Texas sky. A swath of mid-level clouds did stretch from KDFW-
KACT-KILE, but no impacts are expected given they are at FL070.
Not much change is expected overnight into late Tuesday morning as
the ridge of high pressure takes control of our weather.

By Tuesday afternoon, a cold front will approach from the north,
acting as a focus for showers and thunderstorms mainly across
Oklahoma and along the Red River. The main chance for showers and
thunderstorms at the DFW metroplex TAF sites will arrive as the
cold front approaches the area around 08Z Wednesday. For now, have
included a mention of VCSH in the extended portion of the DFW
TAF, as well as switched the winds around to the north.

For Waco, VFR will remain in place through the next 24 hours.
Afternoon Cu should develop after 20Z and diminish with the loss
of daytime heating. Winds will be out of the south around 10 kts.

Hernandez

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    98  77  90  73  88 /  10  30  40  30  30
Waco                98  76  95  74  91 /   5   5  40  30  30
Paris               93  73  88  68  86 /  10  50  50  30  20
Denton              96  74  89  70  87 /  10  40  50  30  20
McKinney            96  72  89  71  87 /  10  40  40  30  30
Dallas              98  78  90  74  88 /  10  30  40  30  30
Terrell             96  73  91  72  88 /  10  30  40  30  30
Corsicana           97  76  94  74  89 /  10  10  40  30  30
Temple              97  75  97  72  91 /   5   5  30  30  30
Mineral Wells       96  73  88  70  88 /  10  30  50  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$



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