Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 170839
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
339 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
INTO THE WEEKEND. IN GENERAL...THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES NEAR AND SOUTH OF WACO
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY AND THURSDAY.

LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE...RICH MID LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE...AND
AN UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AND THURSDAY. WITHOUT A
DISCERNIBLE LARGER SCALE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN PLACE...IT IS HARD TO
JUSTIFY THE MULTIPLE PERIODS OF LIKELY POPS FORECAST BY MODEL
GUIDANCE IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL SCALE
DOWN THE GUIDANCE POPS SOMEWHAT IN THE SOUTH...BUT THE FORECAST
WILL STILL FEATURE 50 TO 60 POPS AROUND WACO AND TEMPLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...
TRACKABLE AS A SLOW MOVING SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM EAST CENTRAL
NM INTO CENTRAL TX AT 500 MB...WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS WEEK...BUT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL AFFECT
THE EASTERN AREAS...SO HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL TEND TO SHIFT INTO
THE WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS STILL ON
TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH OKLAHOMA SUNDAY AND INTO NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT BEFORE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR SPREADS
ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER
AIR WILL AFFECT ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1134 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS FORECAST
WITH VFR CIGS AOA 10KFT MOST OF THE TIME. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CIGS 2-3 KFT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING 12-16Z...ESPECIALLY AT KACT.

WITH WARM MOIST AIR IN PLACE AND INSTABILITY INCREASING ON
WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP SOUTH OF KACT
TOMORROW MORNING AND LIFT OVER THE TAF SITE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. WILL INCLUDE VCSH FOR KACT LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH -TSRA POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON AND
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

THE METROPLEX SITES WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR VCSH ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT ANY TERMINAL COULD SEE A BRIEF SHRA OR TWO DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE TS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE METROPLEX FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING AT THE MOMENT. THIS MAY CHANGE IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES. 75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  91  74  89  71  90 /  30  20  30  20  20
WACO, TX              90  72  87  70  90 /  50  40  50  30  30
PARIS, TX             90  70  88  68  88 /  20  20  20   5  10
DENTON, TX            91  72  89  69  89 /  20  20  30  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          90  71  88  68  88 /  20  20  20  10  20
DALLAS, TX            91  74  89  71  89 /  30  20  30  20  20
TERRELL, TX           90  72  87  69  89 /  30  20  30  20  20
CORSICANA, TX         90  72  87  69  89 /  40  40  50  20  20
TEMPLE, TX            89  72  86  70  88 /  60  40  50  30  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     89  70  87  69  88 /  30  20  40  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

 /09





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