Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 251227 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
727 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFs/

Challenges today will continue to be timing convective trends and
cigs due to convection and mixing.

DFW Terminals...
Will carry VCTS with TEMPO for TSRA and IFR cigs through mid
morning for KDFW/KFTW/KAFW, while delaying a few hours at KDAL and
KGKY with the approach of the first shortwave of the day. Another
shortwave will arrive after 18Z and will only carry VCSH in
between the two disturbances. A cold front arrives this evening
with a continuation of showers and isolated storms possible behind
the front overnight. Cigs should improve to low VFR between 3-4
kft, then fall back into low MVFR behind the cold front early this
evening. It is possible IFR conditions may occur late tonight, but
with models struggling and confidence wavering, held off on that
thought for now.

Waco Terminal...
Cigs will fluctuate, as the airport will remain on the easternmost
periphery of the better lift just to the west. Have prevailed VFR
cigs with a TEMPO IFR through mid morning as mixing from nearby
convection results in fluctuating conditions. A few showers are
possible this morning with MVFR conditions, then a few
thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon with daytime
heating. The cold front should arrive just before 06Z Monday with
cigs lowering to near the IFR/MVFR threshold.

SSE flow 10 kts or less should prevail at all terminals until
FROPA this evening. However, it is possible that convective
outflows by this afternoon could result in brief W/NW winds. Winds
should be NE 5-8 kts initially with FROPA, then N 10-15 kts with
cold advection arriving into the area late evening and into the
predawn hours Monday.

05/

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016/
Although the mean flow is nearly parallel to the quasi-linear MCS
that reached our northwestern zones at nightfall, it has continued
to make gradual progress eastward overnight. This has been made
possible by the advancing outflow, the gusty winds early this
morning confirming that the updrafts have maintained access to the
juicy surface parcels downstream. But this steadily stabilizing
nocturnal air has been unable to maintain the complex`s strength
as its associated forcing aloft has moved into Oklahoma. Despite
the eastward progress of the activity, the wind profiles continue
to promote training echoes. The impressive rainfall totals were
west of our area on Saturday, but many locations in our northwest
zones have received at least an inch of rain overnight. Antelope
(Jack County) tallied more than 3 inches.

The next impulse will take a similar track to its predecessor,
but its associated convection is also deviating eastward toward
the richer moisture. These showers and storms will impact our
southwestern zones early this morning with some gusty winds, but
they too will wane as the upper forcing leaves them behind.
Although there will be heavy rain, the progressive nature of the
activity should limit its duration. Subsequent disturbances, one
currently entering the Edwards Plateau and another upstream in
Mexico, will also take northerly treks, keeping the better forcing
to our west today. However, there will still be rounds of showers
and storms that affect areas mainly west of the I-35 corridor.
While flooding issues could result from training activity,
particularly if this occurs in areas that have already seen
wetting rains, the main concerns will be to our west. There will
also be some diurnally driven activity east of the better
organized convection, but lingering subsidence in East Texas
should limit its eastward extent.

The ongoing activity is disrupting the surface wind field, and
additional convection will continue to do so throughout the day.
Rain-cooled air well in advance of a cold front will belie its
position, which is currently in the Texas Panhandle. The true
boundary will take much of the day to reach our northwestern
zones. With the upper forcing driving the bulk of the convection
in vicinity of the front, we are unlikely to see a linear complex
coincident with the surface boundary, and showers and storms will
persist after its passage. However, as the dry postfrontal layer
deepens, the activity will eventually end from northeast to
southwest, but it may be until the daylight hours Monday before
this happens.

Lingering clouds and steady north winds Monday will likely keep
afternoon temperatures in the 70s along and west of the I-35
corridor. Sunshine will emerge Tuesday, but with many locations
starting the day in the 50s and lower 60s, high temperatures may
be similar. The 80s will return Wednesday, but the moisture will
not. Seasonal temperatures with humidity more befitting of autumn
will prevail into the opening weekend of October.

25

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    86  64  76  61  80 /  70  60  40  10  10
Waco                87  67  78  60  79 /  50  70  40  10  10
Paris               89  65  79  59  80 /  40  40  30  10   5
Denton              85  63  75  55  79 /  70  60  40  10   5
McKinney            87  65  79  57  80 /  60  50  30  10  10
Dallas              87  66  77  63  80 /  60  60  40  10  10
Terrell             89  67  81  60  81 /  40  50  30  10  10
Corsicana           88  68  81  62  80 /  40  60  30  10  10
Temple              86  66  77  60  78 /  50  70  40  10  10
Mineral Wells       82  62  71  56  77 /  80  70  50  10  10

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

05/25



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