Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 292157
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
457 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN STEPHENS AND PALO PINTO
COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND OVERNIGHT. HAVE DONE A
QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST...PRIMARILY WEST OF I-35...WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS
HIGHER AND STRONGER FORCING IS PRESENT DUE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRAVERSING WESTERN TEXAS.

THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE BUT
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
VERY LARGE SURFACE T/TD SPREADS OF 30 TO 40 DEGREES ARE PRESENT WEST
OF I-35 WHICH WILL SUPPORT A DOWNBURST WIND THREAT FROM ANY STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS.

HAVE MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH OVERCAST SKIES EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LOW TEMPERATURES TO STAY IN THE MID 70S OR
HIGHER IN LOCATIONS WHERE SKIES ARE UNABLE TO CLEAR.

STALLEY

&&

.AVIATION...

/ISSUED 104 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...LOW SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

IN THE PAST 24 HOURS...THERE HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLE MOISTENING OF
THE MID LEVELS...BUT DRY AIR REMAINS BELOW 700MB. MID-LEVEL
TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT FOR
TAF SITES...THIS SHOULD ONLY MEAN CLOUDS ABOVE FL100. ALTHOUGH A
SHOWER OR ISOLATED STORM IS POSSIBLE...IT APPEARS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE A QUIET AREA BETWEEN A WEST TEXAS SHORTWAVE
AND AN AREA OF BETTER FORCING TO THE NORTHEAST. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL SLOW AS DIURNAL HEATING ERODES THE
SHALLOW AIR MASS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. DESPITE ITS PROXIMITY TO THE
METROPLEX...VEERING WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LIMITED BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG IT.

25


&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/
A SOMEWHAT COMPLEX MID LEVEL PATTERN ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON...AS
THREE DISTINCT DISTURBANCES ARE SEEN IN RELATIVELY CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THERE IS A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE NEAR
LUBBOCK TX...THE CENTRAL GULF COAST LONGWAVE TROUGH NEAR BILOXI
MS...AND A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE MO/AR OZARKS
REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A SUBTLE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED JUST
NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA WITH WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ON
THE FRONT NEAR WICHITA FALLS TX. AN AREA OF LINGERING LIGHT RAIN
CONTINUED ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND BIG COUNTRY WITH ISOLATED
STORMS HAVING DEVELOPED NORTHWEST OF ABILENE TX IN THE PAST HOUR.

THE SHORTWAVE NEAR LUBBOCK AND MIDLAND TX WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER
THE HILL COUNTRY AND UPPER RIO GRANDE PLAINS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...
EVENTUALLY BECOMING ABSORBED BY THE WEST-MOVING CENTRAL GULF
LONGWAVE TROUGH. DESPITE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES... DEW PTS ARE IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S WHICH IS LIMITING INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT
WITH AN EXPECTED DECREASE AFTER 00Z/7 PM. EXPECT ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE SLOW-MOVING SURFACE FRONT THIS
EVENING WITH LINGERING CHANCES OVERNIGHT ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES IN PROXIMITY TO THE WEST TX SHORTWAVE. RAINFALL WILL BE
SPOTTY AND VERY LIGHT WITH CLOUD BASES NEAR 700MB AND A DRY SUB-
CLOUD LAYER. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY WHEN THE CWA IS UNDER
A SUBSIDENT REGION BETWEEN THE SOUTHWEST TX SHORTWAVE AND THE
LONGWAVE COASTAL MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE TX/LA BORDER. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH SOUTH
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.

THE LONGWAVE COASTAL MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIKELY STALL NEAR OUR
FAR E/SE COUNTIES AS IT ENTERS AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS
ALOFT. WE WILL HAVE SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES ADVERTISED ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ON TUESDAY...WHERE A SEABREEZE BOUNDARY COULD
ARRIVE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AID IN CONVERGENCE AT THE SURFACE.
HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE THE REMAINING PART OF THE WEEK DRY AS NORTH
TEXAS REMAINS UNDERNEATH THE DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW COMPONENT OF
THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH. HIGHS WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS
AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

05/

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  96  76  95  76 /  20   5  10   0   0
WACO, TX              72  96  72  96  73 /  10  10   5   0   5
PARIS, TX             72  93  70  93  70 /  20  10  10   5   5
DENTON, TX            73  95  74  96  74 /  20   5  10   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          74  93  74  94  73 /  20   5  10   0   0
DALLAS, TX            75  96  76  95  76 /  20   5  10   0   0
TERRELL, TX           73  94  72  94  72 /  20   5  10   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         72  94  72  94  73 /  10   5  10   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            73  94  72  95  72 /  10  10   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73  95  72  96  72 /  20   5   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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