Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 221753
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1253 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

.AVIATION...
Generally south winds at 11-14 kts will be the rule through the
forecast period, with occasional gusts into the 15-20 kt range
this afternoon.

As low-level moisture is transported northward, a shield of MVFR
stratus is expected to develop and spread north and east of the
Texas Hill Country late tonight. Recent guidance remains split on
the development of MVFR cigs across the TAF sites, although it
does appear the highest likelihood remains south and east of the
Metroplex based on the orientation of the low-level flow. For now,
have introduced a scattered deck at FL015 at Waco after 11Z,
which should then begin to scatter and lift after 16Z. If model
trends continue, however, would need to consider prevailing MVFR
cigs at Waco for a few hours tomorrow morning in future updates.

Carlaw

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016/
The subtropical upper level high will be the dominant player in
our weather through the next several days. Hot and generally dry
weather will prevail, but some low chances of rain will gradually
return to parts of the area over the weekend, and to the entire
area by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week as the upper high
shifts westward.

Southerly winds of 10 to 15 mph will become established over the
region today which should keep high temperatures a degree or two
cooler than yesterday. The stronger winds in the lower levels will
also limit the ability for cumulus towers to grow and thus the
prospects for rain showers this afternoon are even less likely
than they were the last couple of days.

Southerly low level flow will persist into the weekend and with no
change in thickness values, high temperatures should stay in the
mid 90s just about area wide. All of the model guidance still
shows the TUTT low that is now over the Bay of Campeche moving
northwest into the Texas Big Bend area by Saturday. This will
weaken the upper ridge`s grip on the region, and allow for a few
afternoon showers to develop and impact the southern zones this
weekend. However, most of this activity will stay south and
southeast of the CWA where Gulf moisture will be more plentiful.

The center of the subtropical ridge will redevelop over the four
corners region early next week. This will bring northerly flow
aloft to the area and potentially push the remnants of a weak cold
front into Northeast Texas by Tuesday or Wednesday. Moisture
pooling along and ahead of the boundary should increase the
chances of daytime convection. However the lack of organized
synoptic lift means coverage will be isolated. Rainfall prospects
may increase a bit by next Thursday or Friday as stronger
northerly flow aloft and a shortwave trough axis move into the
area. High temperatures next week may tick up a degree or two as
low level winds become light and we lose the cooling effects of
air coming off of the Gulf.

TR.92



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    97  78  96  77  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                95  76  95  73  94 /   5   5   0   0   5
Paris               94  75  94  74  93 /   5   5   0   0   0
Denton              96  76  94  74  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            95  77  93  74  93 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              96  79  95  78  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             94  75  94  74  93 /   5   5   0   0   5
Corsicana           94  76  94  75  93 /   5   5   0   0   5
Temple              94  75  94  72  93 /   5   5   0   0  10
Mineral Wells       96  75  96  71  95 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

90/91



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