Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KFWD 031000
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
400 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY SCOURING OUT THE REMAINING SHALLOW
COLD AIRMASS THAT HAS PLAGUED THE REGION SINCE LATE LAST WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S NORTHEAST TO AROUND 70
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BE THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES THAT WE HAVE HAD SINCE TWO WEEKENDS AGO. THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AREA WIDE THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW A
LITTLE INSTABILITY...SO HAVE PLACED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE EASTERN THIRD.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP DOWN THE PLAINS TODAY...MOVING INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT...AND TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR
TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
FRONT. WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AREA WIDE TONIGHT ANY MAYBE
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

AS TEMPERATURES FALL...SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO FALL...SOME FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF BEFORE SUNSET WEDNESDAY.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1127 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015/
/06Z TAF/

NO MAJOR CHANGES OTHER TO INDICATE VLIFR/LIFR VSBYS/CIGS WITH
-DZ/FG PERSISTING THRU AT LEAST 15Z AT ALL AIRPORTS. SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS CONTINUES TO DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST AWAY INTO E TX/UPPER TX
GULF COAST THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY HELPING A WEAK WARM FRONT SURGE
NORTH. THE WEAK WAA AND OVERRUNNING OVER THE TOP OF COLD AND MOIST
SOILS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE AND LIKELY NOT UNTIL ALMOST MIDDAY
TUESDAY OR AFTER...AT WHICH TIME INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW 10-15
KTS AND A WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER HELP CIGS SLOWLY RISE INTO
IFR...THEN BRIEFLY INTO MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS AFTER 18Z TUESDAY AREN`T VERY HIGH...THOUGH
MIXING FROM APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD IMPROVE
CONDITIONS TUES AFTERNOON. WITH WINDS SETTLING SOME TUESDAY
EVENING...HAVE BROUGHT CONDITIONS BACK IFR CONDITIONS SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

WITH SUCH EMPHASIS ON THE FIRST 12-18 HRS OF THE FORECAST...HAVE
DECIDED TO LEAVE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OUT OF THE 24-30 HR DFW
TAF FOR NOW...BUT NEXT FEW TAFS WILL LIKELY INCLUDE A FRONTAL
PASSAGE SOMETIME BEFORE DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. AFTERWARD...CHALLENGES
ON A TURNOVER TO WINTER PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
WILL PRESENT MORE CHALLENGES TO AVIATORS WEDNESDAY AND WED NIGHT.

05


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  63  39  40  25  41 /  40  70  90  60  10
WACO, TX              60  52  54  29  40 /  30  50  90  70  20
PARIS, TX             62  41  41  19  41 /  50  90  90  60  10
DENTON, TX            63  36  37  21  40 /  40  70  90  50  10
MCKINNEY, TX          59  37  39  24  41 /  50  70  90  60  10
DALLAS, TX            62  40  41  25  41 /  40  70  90  60  10
TERRELL, TX           62  42  44  26  41 /  50  70  90  70  20
CORSICANA, TX         62  48  54  29  39 /  40  60  90  70  20
TEMPLE, TX            60  55  57  28  39 /  30  40  80  70  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     67  39  39  21  40 /  30  70  80  40  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.


&&

$$

25/58



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.