Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
909 FXUS64 KFWD 030619 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 119 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 ...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected through Friday with the highest rain chances (40-60%) west of Highway 281. - Severe storms are not expected, but gusty winds, outflow boundaries and isolated lightning may impact outdoor festivities. - Occasional rain chances continue through the weekend and into next week with seasonable high temperatures remaining in the 90s. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Today through Friday Night/ Overcast skies are in place tonight with a few showers ongoing primarily across the western/SWern periphery of the forecast area. This will be the favored location for precipitation over the next few hours, with a gradual expansion eastward heading into the morning as a weak disturbance moves through, rounding the western periphery of the ridge. An area of enhanced low level moisture transport will support showers and a few storms developing towards the I-35 corridor closer to mid/late morning, with a weakening trend farther east as the activity encounters stronger subsidence. Convection should be somewhat similar to Wednesday with showers and a few isolated storms developing, with a relative lull in activity on the radarscope potentially setting up midday/early afternoon. Latest high-res guidance is favoring western Central TX for an additional wave of convection blossoming by late afternoon and gradually shifting eastward again in the evening and overnight hours. The highest rain chances (40-60%) are still favored across the Big Country, but 20-30% PoPs are maintained across the rest of the forecast area in the afternoon with the best chances being west of I-35 Thursday evening and night. Severe weather is not expected but gusty winds, locally heavy rainfall, and lightning will all be hazards with any storms that develop. As the upper level trough lifts into the Plains Thursday night into Friday morning, 925-850 mb moisture transport will become maximized across the western half of the region from the increased low level southerly flow. An embedded disturbance moving through as the trough shifts into the Plains will continue to support scattered showers and storms mainly through Friday morning, although 30-50% PoPs are maintained through the afternoon hours for those near and west of I-35. Any showers and storms are likely to diminish by the evening, but this will have to be watched closely for the timing of this round and any associated impacts to outdoor festivities for Independence Day. Otherwise, from the increased cloudiness and scattered showers/storms tomorrow, highs will mostly be in the 80s, with readings as much as 10 degrees below normal. Friday will be slightly warmer with upper 80s/low 90s and continued elevated humidity along with mostly cloudy skies becoming partly sunny. Gordon && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Saturday Onward/ The influence of the upper level ridge will increase over the weekend, but with it becoming centered over the Desert Southwest, the opportunity for showers and storms will continue Saturday and Sunday. Guidance is shifting towards weak mid level troughing persisting compared to previous runs, with disturbances moving through the northerly upper level flow. Rain chances this weekend will again be favored for western portions of the forecast area before increased subsidence arrives late in the weekend and into early next week. Temperatures in the low/mid 90s this weekend will warm into the mid/upper 90s by next week with triple digit heat indices becoming more likely Monday onward. Conditions are favored to be drier during this time period, but rain chances won`t be entirely shut-off either given the overall pattern. Gordon && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /06Z TAFs/ A more active 24-30 hours will set up across North and Central Texas with scattered showers and storms possible through the TAF period. Winds around 5 to 8 kts will continue, with an ESE direction generally prevailing outside of any outflow boundaries from thunderstorms. Light showers are currently ongoing to the west in the Abilene vicinity, which will be the favored area for additional activity for the next few hours. Coverage will gradually expand and shift east towards the I-35 corridor which will bring an initial period of VCSH, likely beginning around 10-11Z for Waco and closer to 14Z for D10. While VCSH is maintained through much of tomorrow, there will be periodic breaks in nearby precip. Embedded thunder in the morning activity will be a lower concern for direct impacts, but a period of TSRA may need to be introduced (mainly for Waco) in the afternoon hours. More robust storms will contain a threat for heavy rain, gusty winds, and frequent lightning, but given the broad, scattered coverage anticipated, any narrow window of TSRA cannot be confidently refined at this point. For cigs, this activity will likely bring periods of SCT-BKN 050-060 with only a 10-20% chance of any MVFR. Gordon && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected through tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 77 86 75 90 76 / 20 30 30 20 5 Waco 75 88 75 90 75 / 30 30 20 20 5 Paris 75 88 73 89 73 / 20 30 20 20 5 Denton 73 86 73 90 75 / 30 40 30 30 5 McKinney 75 87 74 90 75 / 20 30 30 20 5 Dallas 78 88 75 91 76 / 20 30 30 20 5 Terrell 75 89 74 91 74 / 20 30 20 20 5 Corsicana 77 92 75 91 75 / 20 20 20 20 5 Temple 74 88 73 90 72 / 30 40 20 20 10 Mineral Wells 73 86 73 89 73 / 40 50 40 40 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$