Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 281706
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1006 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1003 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WAS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWEST
STATES THIS MORNING WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ABOUT OVERHEAD FOR STABLE
CONDITIONS. A SMALL DISTURBANCE WAS PUSHING SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS NRN UT AND WILL BRING SOME INCREASED CLOUDINESS TO
NE UT/NW CO THIS AFTERNOON. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY
GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ALSO TWEAKED SOME MAX TEMPS UP FOR
TODAY WITH THE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. CONTINUED BREEZY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

UNORGANIZED POCKETS OF HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO RIDE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN END OF A JET STREAK ALOFT EMBEDDED IN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHWEST. TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS CLOUDY THAN
YESTERDAY...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL COME AND GO THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY DUE TO A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT  TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BRINGING SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ALOFT TO THE REGION.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FURTHER ON SATURDAY AS A TROUGH
MOVES ONSHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND FLATTENS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. THIS WILL FURTHER INCREASE WINDS ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN UTAH AND COLORADO.

EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH SATURDAY...THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL DEFINITELY BE INCREASING ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE REACHES
THE GREAT BASIN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

SHORTWAVE ENERGY DRIVING ESE ACROSS IDAHO AND WYOMING WILL DROP
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH H3 JET SAGGING INTO THE
AREA. INCREASING PACIFIC MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING
WAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
BEGINNING BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL BE RIGHT ALONG THE COLORADO AND
WYOMING BORDER NORTH OF STEAMBOAT SPRINGS WITH HAHNS PEAK AND THE
MOUNT ZIRKEL WILDERNESS AREAS PRIMED TO PICK UP A QUICK 3 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW. CONFIDENCE INCREASING WITH THIS SOLUTION WITH GOOD
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OVER THE BAST 24 HOURS THROUGH THIS EARLY
PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LIKELY POPS
ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER WITH LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS FOR NOW. LATER
SHIFTS WILL ADJUST AS WE GET A BETTER HANDLE OF THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. AFTER THIS SYSTEM EXITS MONDAY AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS
DRY BACK OUT AS WE AWAIT ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW WHICH
SHOULD ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LATEST ECMWF AND
GFS MODELS IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH KICKING OUT A PIECE
OF ENERGY AHEAD OF A DIGGING LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...STILL SOME CONCERN WITH TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
THE GFS MORE SOUTHERLY AND THE EC LIFTING IT NORTHEAST ACROSS
UTAH. THIS WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WE
GET ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO AND EVEN WITH THE
TIMING COMING IN A BIT BETTER...THE DIFFERING TRACKS WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW BEGINNING
TUESDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY IN MOST AREAS...WITH COOLER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF WEATHER
ROLLING THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1003 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z SAT WITH
MAINLY JUST HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS IN WESTERLY FLOW. RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING STABLE CONDITIONS WITH POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN
WAVES OR LEE SIDE TURBULENCE WITH ENHANCED WINDS ALOFT. THE
STRONGER WINDS WILL BE NEARER THE WY/CO BORDER.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAD
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JAD


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