Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 240545

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
1145 PM MDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Issued at 1145 PM MDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Updated precipitation forecast for showers and storms holding
together trekking across eastern Utah and beginning to make their
way into western Colorado from the Paradox Valley north to
Dinosaur NP. Anticipating this nocturnal convection will hold


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 123 PM MDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Fairly subsident day today behind the old shortwave that rotated
from south to north across the area last night and this morning.
Minor convection with low areal coverage will continue until about
9 pm this evening then dissipate. Most of this will occur from the
Bookcliffs and Flattop north. Drier air is filtering into the
area from the southwest and this will be the trend through
Thursday night. Another weak trough will pass through Wyoming and
northern Colorado Thursday pushing the focus of convection to the
southeast and out of the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 123 PM MDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Following the weak trough package Thursday night a ridge begins
building over the Great Basin. This will become the dominant
feature over the western U.S. through Wednesday. Gradually
moisture will increase beneath this huge ridge and mainly
mountains showers and thunderstorms increase incrementally Monday
and thereafter.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1145 PM MDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Disturbance firing off nocturnal showers and thunderstorms across
the region. Anticipating GJT, MTJ, TEX and eventually RIL to see
VCTS after midnight and potentially seeing a storm move into the
airspace. ILS breakpoints could be reached at times, and there
will likely be some erratic wind gusts with these storms.
Otherwise VFR is anticipated over the next 24 hours.




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