Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KGJT 050945
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
345 AM MDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT THU MAY 5 2016

CURRENT SATELLITE INDICATES A PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ON ITS
WAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY. FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING AN
UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY FOR
AWHILE NOW...SO THIS IS RIGHT ON TRACK. THE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH
HAD CLEARED OUT ALL OF THE RECENT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BE BREAKING DOWN TODAY AS A LARGE -20C CORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES ONSHORE CALIFORNIA TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THIS AFTERNOON. THE VAD WIND PROFILE VIA GJX RADAR IS ALREADY
PICKING UP 30+ MPH WINDS ABOVE 10KFT. A WEATHER STATION AT 11700
FEET IN THE LA SAL MOUNTAINS IS GUSTING TO 30 MPH ALREADY THIS
MORNING...AND THESE WIND MEASUREMENTS WILL ONLY INCREASE BY THIS
EVENING.

THE SIZE OF THIS INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM ALONE INDICATES QUITE A
FEW DAYS OF UNSTABLE WEATHER. ON FRIDAY...MOST PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED OVER NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO ALONG A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT HIGH LAPSE RATES WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE AREA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. A
STEADY HOURS-LONG RAIN EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME IN ANY
AREA IN PARTICULAR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT THU MAY 5 2016

BY SATURDAY MORNING...THE CORE OF THE CLOSED LOW WILL BE OVER UTAH
AND STALLING AS IT REACHES EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO. WITH THE
COLD FRONT HAVING PASSED BY SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE ON THE
COOL SIDE. FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER...BUT EMBEDDED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FIRE ON SATURDAY
WITHIN THE CLOUD SHIELD. FORECAST LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS ARE ON THE HIGH SIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY BE
INDICATING A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS THIS AREA. PRECIPITATION
INCREASES ON SUNDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW CENTER MOVES INTO
WYOMING...BUT MOISTURE WRAPS BACK INTO UTAH AND COLORADO FROM THE
NORTH. SPECIFIC HUMIDITY IS PROGGED TO INCREASE LATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY TO NEAR 5 G/KG...ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE GFS AND EURO OF A WET SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN COLORADO. WILL FEEL MORE CONFIDENT ON THIS
TOMORROW NIGHT IF WE ARE SEEING THE SAME FEATURE. WITH A CLOSED
LOW IT IS GOOD TO BE WEARY OF THESE SMALL DETAILS 4 DAYS IN
ADVANCE. SNOW LEVEL THROUGHOUT THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGH
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NEAR 10KFT TO 11KFT.

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ON FEATURING A SECOND CLOSED LOW
DROPPING INTO THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...THIS SYSTEM
IS NOT FORECAST TO DROP INTO COLORADO BUT RATHER TO BRUSH NE UTAH
AND NW COLORADO AS IT EXITS TO THE EAST ACROSS WYOMING. NEXT WEEK
LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING A FEW DEGREES
NORMAL WITH SHADOWING CLOUD COVER.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z AND LIKELY LATER AT MOST
TAF SITES. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AT THE TAF SITES IS INCREASING
WINDS AFTER 00Z AT MOST PLACES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CNY...BUT
THIS MAY BE A BIT LATE AS GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO SURFACE DUE TO
SURROUNDING VIRGA AND OTHER CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. SHOWERS AND AN
OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM WILL MAINLY DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WITH PLENTY OF CU SEEN FROM VALLEY LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...WINDS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...JAM


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.