Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 282143
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
343 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

WELL-ORGANIZED CLOSED LOW HAS BEEN PUMPING MOISTURE UP INTO EASTERN
UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO TODAY...WITH SNOW LEVEL INITIALLY
AROUND 6200 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING HAVING RISEN THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TO NEAR 8500 FEET. WE ARE EXPECTING THE SNOW LEVEL TO DROP
TONIGHT TO 7500 FEET AND POTENTIALLY 7000 FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 INCHES OR GREATER ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE 9000 FEET WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
CONTINUE. A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DECREASES AROUND SUNSET. THE CLOSED LOW WILL
SHIFT EAST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS BY FRIDAY MORNING BUT A GENERAL
AREA OF CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN SLUNG ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN.
CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT AT MOST LOCATIONS BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
CLOSED LOW MOVES OUT OF WESTERN COLORADO...BUT SOME RESIDUAL
SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE OVER RABBIT EARS AND VAIL PASSES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

THE NEXT CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO DROP FURTHER SOUTH THAN WE WERE
SEEING ON FORECAST MODELS 24 HOURS AGO...NOW INTO ARIZONA LATE
SATURDAY. THE CLOSED LOW IS STILL ON TRACK TO REACH THE FOUR
CORNERS ON SUNDAY AND WILL BRING A RAINY DAY TO THE FOUR CORNERS
SPREADING AS FAR NORTH AS EAST CENTRAL UTAH AND WEST CENTRAL
COLORADO AS WELL. THE STEADY RAIN SHOULD END BY LATE SUNDAY BUT
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL INITIATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS AS
THE REGION REMAINS IN AN UNSTABLE PATTERN.

HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY RETURNS NEXT WEDNESDAY AND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL. DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT THU APR 28 2016

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY
MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
JUST SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. EXPECT MVFR AND BRIEF IFR
CIGS/VISY IN STRONGER SHOWERS WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 7500 FEET
FREQUENTLY OBSCURING MOUNTAINS. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO SLOWLY
TRANSITION TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
WITH SNOW CONTINUING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ004-009-010-
     012-013-017>019.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR UTZ023-028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...MPM


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