380
FXUS65 KGJT 102318
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
518 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There will be a slight chance for afternoon showers and
  storms each afternoon for the next few days.

- Red Flag Warnings remain in place with winds gusting 25-35
  mph and relative humidity in the teens and single digits.

- Temperatures will remain 5-10 degrees above normal through mid
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 234 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

The shortwave trough that moved through the region this morning
brought moisture into the area. This has resulted in showers and
storms developing over the high terrain. The wave has also pushed a
cold front in from the north, which is another focus for showers and
storms. That front will move southward through the area this
afternoon and evening. Although by sunset most of the showers should
dissipate. The wave and front have caused winds to increase
especially along and south of the front. Low levels remain hot
and dry so critical fire weather is expected through sunset.
Lightning last night has sparked several wildfires so conditions
are in place for those to potentially spread. Tomorrow the
pressure gradient relaxes, which will allow the winds to
decrease. Not all of the moisture gets washed out so there will
be enough for another round of afternoon showers and storms on
the higher terrain. These showers will be capable of gusty winds
with minimal rainfall. The cold front looks to cool things down
by a few degrees, but it is still hot and dry.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 234 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Expect a series of dry, hot days with convection over the high
terrain each afternoon. Through the long term PWATs fluctuate
around normal. Any moisture advection through Thursday looks to
be weak and primarily focused on along the Divide and over the
San Juans. The highest PoPs are in the San Juan mountains each
afternoon. After Sunday differences in PWATs emerge between
ensembles, with the GFS Ens keeping more moisture in the region
than the ECMWF Ens, although both seem to suggest the
possibility for increased moisture advection towards the end of
the long term. The magnitude of the moisture advection will
depend on where high pressure sets up relative to our CWA, but
current forecasts suggest an increase in precipitation for our
southern mountains on Wednesday and Thursday.

Our CWA will remain hot and dry through the long term. Expect high
temperatures to be 5 to 10 degrees above average through
midweek. Minimum relative humidity values are generally
anticipated to fall below 15% for all but the highest terrain
over the weekend. As moisture increases mid next week so should
minimum relative humidity values, but only by a few percent.
Despite the low relative humidity in the forecast, critical fire
weather conditions are expected to be localized as wind gusts
should stay below thresholds for most areas.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 516 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Winds will be decreasing through the evening as skies clear
leaving VFR conditions at most TAF sites. There is a moderate
probability of smoke impacting the KMTJ airfield with nearby
large wildfires laying down and this placed in the forecast.
KGJT could be impacted as well but confidence not as high attm.
Less winds and clouds are expect for Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 234 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Wind gusts of 25-35 mph will be common across the area through
about sunset before gradually decreasing. Winds decrease on Friday
through the weekend although temperatures stay above normal.
The chance of wetting rain in the coming days is low. Additional
lightning starts will be a concern with the continuation of warm
and dry conditions and a chance for showers and storms each
afternoon into next week.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ203-205-
     207-290>294.
UT...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for UTZ487-490-
     491.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...GF
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT