National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
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000
FXUS65 KGJT 080445
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
945 PM MST SAT DEC 7 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MST SAT DEC 7 2013

ONE BATCH OF UPLIFT FROM WARM ADVECTION...SOME UPGLIDE AND A WEAK
VORT MAX PASSED THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. IT INITIATED SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A
BAND OF SLIGHTLY ENHANCED SNOWFALL STRETCHING FROM ROUTT COUNTY
SSW TO CORTEZ. A BRIEF LULL LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL PRECEDE THE
NEXT BAND OF ENHANCED SNOWFALL. THIS SECOND ONE WAS WORKING ITS
WAY THROUGH CENTRAL UT AND APPROACHING EASTERN UT AT ABOUT 130 PM
THIS AFTERNOON...AS SHOWN ON IR AND WV SATELLITE. SATELLITE AND
THE RAP12 SHOW THIS NEXT AREA TO HAVE THE BEST DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND
THE BEST ORGANIZATION. IT SHOULD PRODUCE THE MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL
BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NE UT AND NW CO AND PROGRESSING
EAST THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. MOST AREAS CAN EXPECT A 2 TO 3 HOUR
PERIOD OF STRONGER SNOWFALL AS THE MOST INTENSE BAND MOVES
THROUGH. THE ENERGY BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST AFTER 06Z THIS EVENING
AND THE MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO ERODE AS WELL...CAUSING THE
SNOWFALL TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT DRIER NW FLOW WILL CAUSE THE SNOWFALL
TO TRANSITION TO NW LY OROGRAPHICS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND THE SAN JUAN MTS NORTH OF RED MT PASS.

THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS SEEM APPROPRIATE WITH A SHORT
SPURT OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL MOVING THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY...SO
WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM MST SAT DEC 7 2013

A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE UT/CO BORDER AROUND NOON ON
MONDAY THOUGH MOST MOISTURE WILL HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE REGION.
EXPECT LINGERING LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHCENTRAL AND CENTRAL MTNS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH THE PERSISTENT SNOW COVER AND NORTHERLY FLOW.

MODELS ARE AGREEABLE AND CONSISTENT ON BRINGING A RIDGE INTO THE
GREAT BASIN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
MODERATE TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE VALLEY
SNOWPACK...EXPECT SHALLOW AND STEEP TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS DURING
THIS RIDGING PATTERN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. BROUGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE CLEAR AND CALM VALLEYS CONSIDERABLY TO
ADJUST FOR THIS.

BY FRIDAY...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE DOWNSTREAM.
TROUGHINESS DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY WITH COOL NORTHERLY FLOW
PREVALENT ONCE AGAIN FOR A SHORT TIME INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL FAST MOVING TROUGH IS FAVORABLE TO BRING SHOWERS INTO THE
NORTHCENTRAL MTNS ON FRIDAY. RIDGING BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH THE CPC 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK OF
DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 945 PM MST SAT DEC 7 2013

WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL THEN
BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT OVER THE WESTERN VALLEYS BY MIDDAY AND WILL
DIMINISH OVER THE SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL WILL
CONTINUE LONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...PERSISTING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE POOR IN SNOW WITH
LOW CIGS/VSBY. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED...WITH MVFR AND AREAS OF
IFR IN THE VALLEYS.



&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ001.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST SUNDAY FOR COZ006-011-020.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ007-008-014.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ009-012.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ017>019.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ002>004-010-
     013.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST SUNDAY FOR COZ021>023.

UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST SUNDAY FOR UTZ023>025-028.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST SUNDAY FOR UTZ027.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST SUNDAY FOR UTZ022-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...EH
National Weather Service National Headquarters
