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000
FXUS65 KGJT 091006
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
406 AM MDT WED JUL 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM MDT WED JUL 9 2014

FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING THIS MORNING ALONG LINGERING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION LAST EVENING. ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LIGHT
AND GENERALLY CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE BOOKCLIFFS AND TAVAPUTS
PLATEAU NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNRISE WITH BRIEF SUBSIDENCE SETTLING IN BEFORE WE RE-
CHARGE LATER THIS MORNING AS TEMPS START CLIMBING.

DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
TODAY AS GREAT BASIN RIDGING GETS NUDGED INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS
SENDING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER ONE INCH BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HEAVY RAIN BECOMING MORE AND MORE LIKELY.
HAVE TWEAKED POPS UP A BIT FROM EARLIER FORECAST AND CURRENT FLASH
FLOOD WATCH LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING LITTLE TO NOW STEERING
FLOW...SO STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING TO STATIONARY. TEMPS WILL
DOWN A FEW DEGREES WITH INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUD
COVER IN PLACE.

MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WITH THE UPPER HIGH CENTER SETTLING OVER NM...CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION
AROUND IT WILL KEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
NAM/GFS MODELS KEEP PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ROUGHLY IN THE 0.75 TO
1.00 INCH RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS SOUTHEAST UT AND
SOUTHWEST CO WHERE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD SHOW THE TYPICAL DIURNAL DECREASE TONIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP
AGAIN THU WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE 0-6KM VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
REMAINS WEAK THOUGH...SO THUNDERSTORMS NOT LIKELY TO BE LONG-LIVED.
MAY SEE STORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON TURN TO MORE RAIN SHOWERS
LATER ON AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM MDT WED JUL 9 2014

MODELS KEEP THE UPPER HIGH CENTER OVER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SHOWN CROSSING NORTHEAST UT AND
NORTHWEST CO ON FRIDAY WHICH INCREASES VERTICAL SHEAR A BIT ACROSS
THE NORTH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS THERE. GFS
HINTS AT SOME DRIER AIR INTRUDING INTO THE 4 CORNERS FRIDAY...SO
SOMETHING TO WATCH. BUT FOR NOW...WILL KEEP WITH THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY.

DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS EAST OF THE DIVIDE OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED OVER OUR HIGHER MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. RIDGE SLIPS BACK TO THE WEST LATE
SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER SURGE LIFTING NORTH INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL SIGNAL ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION MONDAY AND TUESDAY...EVEN WITH
THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER WAVE SLIDES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WYOMING. NO MAJOR SWINGS IN TEMPS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH READINGS RUNNING NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 406 AM MDT WED JUL 9 2014

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
BETWEEN 18Z AND 06Z TODAY...WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO
40 MPH POSSIBLE. TERMINAL SITES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR...ALTHOUGH THEY WILL STAND A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING
IMPACTED BY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR COZ006-007-009-011-017>023.

UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR UTZ022-027>029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC/JAD
LONG TERM...JAD/JDC
AVIATION...JDC