Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 171756

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1056 AM MST Sat Feb 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM MST Sat Feb 17 2018

...Fire Weather Watch in effect Sunday afternoon for portions of
the Tri-State region...

Today/Tonight: In the wake of shortwave energy and an associated
sfc cyclone progressing eastward across the Central Plains, NW winds
will increase to 20-30 or 25-35 mph with gusts as high as 45 mph
for several hours late this morning and early this afternoon
(particularly from GLD north and east). Without a cold upstream
airmass at the surface, expect neutral thermal advection with
highs moderating to near 50F (N/NE) to near 60F (S/SE). Winds will
weaken considerably mid to late afternoon, become light/variable
for several hours, then back to the south and strengthen to 15 to
25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph overnight as a potent upper level
low digs ashore the PAC NW, flow aloft backs from NW-W over the
Rockies, a lee trough develops in eastern CO, and the MSLP
gradient tightens over the High Plains. Temperatures may fall into
the upper 20s to lower 30s within a few hours after sunset,
though strengthening southerly flow should result in steady or
rising temperatures the remainder of the night.

Sun/Sun Night: Southerly flow is expected to persist on Sunday as
the aforementioned upper low digs SSE into the Intermountain West
and a lee cyclone deepens over northeast CO. Low-level warm
advection will allow temps to climb into the mid 60s to lower/mid
70s Sunday afternoon along and south of I-70. Further north, high
temperatures may be affected by a cold front progged to approach
the Tri-State region from the north late Sun afternoon/evening,
though recent model guidance suggests fropa will not occur until
Sunday evening/night. Lows Sun night will depend primarily upon
fropa timing and cold advection thereafter, with temps falling
into the teens and 20s by sunrise Monday morning.

Monday: Challenging temperature forecast. Expect calendar day highs
ranging from the upper 20s north to upper 40s or lower 50s far
south. Highs south of Interstate 70 are likely to occur prior to
the arrival of the strongest pressure rises /cold advection/
post-fropa early Monday morning.

Fire Weather: Adverse fire weather conditions are expected across
portions of the Tri-State region for a short period of time early this
afternoon. Dry conditions, well above normal temperatures, and
gusty southwest winds are expected to result in critical fire weather
conditions during the day Sunday, particularly along and south of
I-70. In coordination with WFOs BOU/PUB/DDC, a Fire Weather Watch
has been issued for portions of eastern CO and western KS Sunday

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 427 AM MST Sat Feb 17 2018

The long term period will begin with much below normal
temperatures and a chance for some light snow as a deep trough is
carved out across the central CONUS. However, with the trough axis
to the west the local area will see mostly southwesterly winds
aloft resulting in a considerable dry slot which will limit snow
amounts. The northwest part of the area stands to receive an inch
or two at worst, while the southeast area closer to the dry slot
may not see any at all. The trough will gradually pull away to the
northeast by midweek with precipitation chances ending. A broad
southwesterly flow aloft will replace it for the end of the week
with a period of dry conditions and temperatures back to near
normal by Friday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1037 AM MST Sat Feb 17 2018

VFR conditions are expected at MCK and GLD through the TAF
period. Gusty northwest winds today will slacken around sunset and
then turn south and become gusty after 05Z as the lee trough
deepens along the front range than then begins to transition
across the high plains early Sunday morning.


KS...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon
     for KSZ013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon
     for COZ253-254.



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