Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 010434
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1034 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 821 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

FOR THE LATEST ESTF UPDATE...CLOUD AND TEMPERATURES ADJUSTMENTS
MADE FROM LATEST OBS...AND CURRENT IR SATELLITE LOOP. SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE CWA...AND WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT...SO REGION WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA NOW IN THE 30S. WARMEST SPOTS ARE IN
WESTERN ZONES WHERE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH
RANGE...AND EASTERN ZONES 10 MPH OR LESS. AS A RESULT THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA WILL COOL QUICKER WITH BETTER RADIATIONAL
COOLING/LESS MIXING...AND HAVE KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL CANADA ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. FAIRLY MERIDIONAL FLOW EXISTED
EAST OF THIS RIDGE. A STRONG DISTURBANCE HAD DROPPED SOUTH
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. A FAIRLY COOL
AIRMASS HAD PUSHED INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AS STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES AS OF 2 PM WERE ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50
ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS AND FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO. ANOTHER STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON SATURDAY. FARTHER WEST, LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP
OVER EASTERN COLORADO LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ON
SATURDAY. ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING ITS GRIP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A GUSTY
COMPONENT OVERNIGHT OUT WEST OF HIGHWAY 25. SATURDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE UPPER RIDGE NOW
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL MOVE EAST INTO EASTERN STATES. THE
UPPER TROUGH IN THE WEST WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA AND WILL BE SHEARING OUT AS IT DOES. BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY, THE TROUGH SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE TRI
STATE REGION. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES
TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS. THROUGH THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK, THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY AGAIN AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES BACK INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING A
RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MDT FRI OCT 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH TAF SITES WITH SKC-SCT250. WINDS FOR KGLD
SSE 15-30KTS. FOR KMCK...WINDS SSE 5-15KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 30KTS
FROM 16Z SAT TO 00Z SUN.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...JN



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