Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 141128
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
428 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
HAVE OVERTAKEN THE REGION AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED THRU THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING FROM THE 20S IN THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA...UP TO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN THE WEST...THANKS TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE WINDS COMING OFF THE FRONT RANGE.

WITH THE FRONT THRU THE AREA...THE REGION IS SET UP THRU TUESDAY
NIGHT TO SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS BROAD H5 RIDGE CONTINUES
TO SHIFT EASTWARD FROM THE PACIFIC COAST REGION.

DURING THIS TIME THOUGH...THE REGION WILL STILL HAVE A SHORTWAVE
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ALONG WITH A SECOND SYSTEM MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH THESE TWO SYSTEMS IN THAT
THE TRACK FOR THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL TAKE IT OVER THE AREA...BUT WITH
VERY LIMITED QPF AND QUICK MOVEMENT...NOT EXPECTING TO BRING MUCH IF
ANY PRECIP TO THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW DUE TO TEMP PROFILES AT TIME OF OCCURRENCE. THE MONDAY
NIGHT SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA...SO HAVE KEPT CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST KEEPING AREA DRY.

FOR TEMPS...LOW TO MID 50S TODAY FOR HIGHS...WHILE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL SEE A RANGE OVER THE TRI STATE REGION OF UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 20S THRU THE MID
30S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY.  THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
WEST WILL BUILD ONTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  BEHIND THE
RIDGE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING IT.
ALMOST ALL OF THE MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE TRI-STATE AREA.  TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
PEAK THURSDAY...WITH SOME LOCATIONS REACHING CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES.
BEHIND THE FRONT HIGHS WILL COOL TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.  ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BEHIND THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL CLOSE TO 15 PERCENT OVER THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE AREA THURSDAY.  THESE TWO INGREDIENTS WILL LEAD TO
HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 428 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SCT
150-250 DOWN TRENDING TO BKN060-070 BY 21Z SUNDAY-02Z MONDAY.
WINDS WNW AROUND 10KTS BECOMING WSW AROUND 10KTS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING WNW AGAIN AFTER 06Z-07Z MONDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JN


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