Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 300529
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1129 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS WITH BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN US AND TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS
WESTERLY KANSAS.

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...AXIS OF FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES (AROUND
7C/KM) IS IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING EAST WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. AS THIS SHIFTS EAST CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS
COMES TO AN END (BY EARLY EVENING). LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE VERY
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH NEAR SEASONAL VALUES AROUND 60F...AND
SOME COOLER LOCATIONS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S.

THURSDAY...H5 RIDGE BEINGS TO AMPLIFY ACROSS WESTERN US RESULTING
IN STRENGTHENING OF LEE TROUGH AND INCREASE IN WAA ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO/FAR WESTERN KANSAS. TEMPS WILL APPROACH SEASONAL VALUES
IN THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 FOR MOST PARTS OF OUR CWA. STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 400-700 J/KG CAPE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD BACK
OVER THE WESTER CWA...WHICH COULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS MID MORNING THURSDAY. BEST
SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS WEST OF CWA...SO UNTIL WEAK ENERGY TOWARDS
THE CWA FROM THE SW DURING THE AFTERNOON WE PROBABLY WONT SEE ANY
ACTIVITY. BEST LIFT IS ALSO SOUTH OF OUR CWA...SO CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON COVERAGE AT THIS POINT. BEST SIGNAL/CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS
THE WEST ROUGHLY ALONG KS/CO STATE LINE. WITH WEAK CAPE VALUES
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS VERY LOW DESPITE INCREASING EFFECTIVE SHEER
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS...WHICH
WILL BRING THE RETURN OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MID 90S ON FRIDAY.  THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY
OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BRING
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.  HOWEVER...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHICH WILL BRING SOME CHANCES FOR SOME DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.  SEVERE INDICATORS AT
THIS TIME LOOK MARGINAL AT BEST...SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A LACK OF A
SURFACE FORCING MECHANISM...SO EXPECTING DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.  WARM SURFACE SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING INCREASED MOISTURE WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE MID 60S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION.  MODEL
FORECASTS DIFFER AS TO THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE FEATURE...WITH
THE ECMWF BRINGING THE DISTURBANCE IN THE FASTEST STARTING TUESDAY.
AT THIS POINT...NOT VERY CONFIDENT THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DEVELOP CONSIDERING GFS/CANADIAN/DGEX MODELS ALL INDICATE THE RIDGE
MAINTAINING STRENGTH OVER THE REGION.  TO STAY WITHIN FORECAST
COLLABORATION THRESHOLDS...KEPT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT THE ECMWF TENDS TO LATCH ON
TO FORECAST PATTERNS SOONER THAN THE OTHER MODELS IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE 6Z TAFS. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY
TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JTL



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