Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 221716
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1016 AM MST Wed Nov 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 144 AM MST Wed Nov 22 2017

Across the Tri State region this morning...skies are a clear to
partly cloudy mix as a veil of mid/high clouds works SSE off the
central Rockies/northern Plains region. Temperatures are mainly in
the 20s...with a few locales around 30-32F. Winds are mainly light
from the SSW.

For today and on thru Friday night...dry conditions are expected for
the area as H5/H7 ridging remains in place for the western portion
of the country. Models carry a shortwave over the ridge
Friday/Friday night. As this system works thru the Plains
region...the CWA will see a cold front move thru the area.

With the strong ridging in place over the next 72 hours...the area
will see above normal daytime temps. Today the area will see temps
in the 60s...to be replaced mostly by the 70s for Thursday and
Friday...tempered only by approaching cold front Friday from the NW
as the shortwave works off the central Rockies. For Thursday/
Friday...these numbers will be 25-30 degrees above normal. Records
are possible to be broken in some areas each day. Please refer to
the Climate section below for further info.

Overnight lows will range in the mid 30s to lower 40s tonight and
Thursday night. By Friday night the passage of the cold front will
usher in another round of CAA that will allow for lows to drop to
around 30F.

Other than the wild temperatures swings the area will see over the
next 72 hours...the only other wx concern will be the strong winds
over the area on Friday/Friday evening on the backside of the
exiting cold front. Gusts 30-35 mph are possible.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 150 AM MST Wed Nov 22 2017

Above normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected this
weekend as upper level ridging continues to dominate the large scale
pattern in the Western US and Central Rockies. Western US ridge is
shown to transition eastward as positively tilted trough digs into
the western US through the weekend into early next week. There are
some model variances on timing of eventual trough passage and it`s
associated front Monday through Monday night which could impact
temps. If front slows down we could see record high temperatures
Monday with strong WAA in deep southwest flow (H85 temps 20-21C).
All guidance continues to show a prohibitively dry air mass in place
and the main forcing associated with this trough splitting around
our CWA. Temperatures should be closer to seasonal normals behind
this trough (next Tuesday and Wednesday).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1014 AM MST Wed Nov 22 2017

VFR expected at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. Ridging
aloft will result in partly sunny skies and light winds. High
level cirrus will continue to spill across the area from the
Rockies.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 144 AM MST Wed Nov 22 2017

Here are the record high temperatures for Thursday 11/23...and
Friday 11/24:

                      Thursday               Friday

Goodland KS          72F in 1925           82F in 1910

McCook NE            72F in 2005           72F in 1995

Burlington CO        72F in 1925           75F in 2012

Hill City KS         72F in 2005           73F in 1923

Colby KS             84F in 1998           75F in 1915

Tribune KS           82F in 1998           76F in 1942

Yuma CO              76F in 2002           73F in 1990

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...024
CLIMATE...JN


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