Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 122331

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
431 PM MST Tue Dec 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 130 PM MST Tue Dec 12 2017

Through Tonight: The MSLP gradient will begin to tighten this
evening/tonight as the next shortwave in NW flow aloft digs SSE
from Alberta/Saskatchewan into the Dakotas. Expect a light W/WNW
breeze to shift to the NW at 15-20 knots in the 06-09Z time-frame.
With decreased radiational cooling assoc/w increasing wind,
expect warmer lows than in previous nights, ranging from the upper
20s to mid 30s.

Wednesday: Low-level flow will strengthen as the MSLP gradient
tightens on the western periphery of the aforementioned shortwave
/attendant sfc low/ as it digs SE from the Dakotas into the
central/northern MS river valley. Expect winds to abruptly
increase to 25-35 mph with gusts to 45 mph AOA 16Z and persist for
a few hours before weakening in concert with the MSLP gradient as
the shortwave /attendant sfc low/ progress toward the OH valley.
With CAA in the morning, expect cooler highs in the mid/upper 50s.
Despite gusty winds, minimum RHs are expected to remain AOA 20%
in most locations. Though an elevated risk for adverse fire
behavior will no doubt be present, at this time it does not appear
that RFW criteria will be met.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 124 PM MST Tue Dec 12 2017

Thursday through Tuesday there will be two main areas of focus, the
windy conditions expected for Thursday and some precipitation
chances for Saturday night as a cold front moves through.

A cold front moves through early in the morning Thursday.  Winds
continue to look strong, similar in intensity to yesterday. However
the eastern extent of the winds is not as far as yesterday, now
mainly covering locations west of Highway 83. Some blowing dust will
result.  Even though relative humidity values will be in the 30%
range, the very dry vegetation with these winds will result in very
favorable conditions for rapid fire growth.

In addition to the wind, the environment may be suitable for snow
showers to develop, similar to last Wednesday.  However, am not sure
the temperature lapse rates will be steep enough for the snow
showers to form.  If they do form, the added effect of the wind will
lead to drastically reduced visibility.  Last Wednesday the
visibility at McCook dropped to a quarter mile as a snow shower
moved through.

Saturday night a cold front will move through ahead of an upper
level trough.  The dew point depressions are very low ahead of the
trough.  However the lift is not all that impressive.  There are
chances for precipitation over mainly Eastern Colorado as the trough
moves through.  The trough does transition to split flow as it moves
south over the forecast area Sunday. Split flow patterns are not
very favorable for precipitation to occur for the forecast area, so
am not very optimistic about the latest chances for precipitation.

There is a very low chance for snow Wednesday night, but the bulk of
the lift associated with the long wave trough moving through is west
of the forecast area.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 419 PM MST Tue Dec 12 2017

VFR conditions will prevail at MCK and GLD through the TAF period
with light westerly winds increasing in strength after 09Z-10Z.
Northwest winds will continue to increase and become gusty through
the morning. Peak afternoon gusts around 35kts are expected before
winds begin tapering off after 22Z.




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