Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 281755

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1155 AM MDT TUE JUN 28 2016

Issued at 949 AM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Just complete an update. Made changes to what I had to earlier
update on pop and weather trends. As yesterday, mesoscale is
in control. At least outflow boundaries are draped across the area
with some thunderstorm/shower activity near or over the area. The
Hrrr has a good handle on the scenario and made adjustments based
on it and latest trends.

Right now am expecting isolated thunderstorms for the rest of the
day. Then the main/highest chance moves in this evening.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 330 AM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Upper level high pressure centered over southern Utah early this
morning with low pressure moving south into the Great Lakes. The
upper high is forecast to gradually slide southeast into New Mexico
tomorrow then into west Texas Thursday.

Weather disturbances (per 700-500mb humidity) and associated
showers/thunderstorms are forecast to move in from the north-
northeast late this evening and continue overnight. Drier air aloft
moves in during the day Wednesday with little if any precipitation
expected. Depending on what model you believe we may see some
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night before tapering off after
midnight. For Thursday through Thursday night precipitation chances
increase as a more significant system moves southeast across much of
the area. The models arent handling each weather disturbance very
well thus timing and precipitation amounts vary.

High temperatures today in the low 90s. Low temperatures in the
upper 50s to low 60s. For Wednesday afternoon am expecting high
temperatures to range from the mid 80s to around 90 along the KS/NE
border as well as Norton and Hill City areas with low to mid 90s
elsewhere. Low temperatures again in the upper 50s to low 60s. For
Thursday noticeably cooler with afternoon temperatures in the mid
70s to mid 80s. Low temperatures in the mid 50s to low 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 214 AM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

The upper level flow over the CONUS, for the most part, has been
consistent via the model runs over the past 3-4 days; with a ridge
in the west, trough in the east and a trough starting to push into
the Pacific Northwest. It was mentioned yesterday that by Friday the
500 mb flow was going to start shifting to a more west northwest
flow, and this has held true again in the newest model runs (the
European has a more zonal flow though compared to the GFS). This is
due to the trough in the eastern CONUS becoming less amplified and
moving more northeast and allowing the ridge to shift south. Due to
this shift and upper level flow having a more westerly component,
the model runs are now showing the higher chances for storms to be
to the south of the CWA on Friday and Saturday. Yet, this does not
mean the region will not get rain and storms, just the greatest
instability and lift are to the south. Sunday and Monday look to be
drier than the other days in the extended but Monday specifically
has less of a chance for precipitation than Sunday. This is due to
the ridge shifting again and engulfing the CWA. Overall, precip
chances are still possible every day but start to diminish in the
latter half of the extended. Temperatures will be in the 70s and 80s
Friday before they begin to increase back into the 90s on Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1148 AM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

For Kgld...vfr conditions are expected through the period at this
time. Between 03z and 06z thunderstorms are expected to move in
from the north. As yesterday the convective allowing models differ
on speed and location of this cluster of thunderstorms. At this
time it looks like the site will be on the edge of this complex.
So at this time, will choose to keep a vcts mention from 04z and
09z. Considering where the models are putting this complex, do
expect strong upslope outflow winds. At the very least am
expecting some stratus however uncertain at this time scale since
we are talking about a mesoscale process. Only put in a scattered
low deck of clouds but later shifts may need to insert fog and sub
vfr ceilings.

For Kmck...vfr conditions are expected through the first half of
the period. Near 06z and 3 to 6 hours later after this am
expecting a large cluster of the thunderstorms to affect the site.
So until 12z have inserted mvfr conditions with occasional ifr
conditions. At this time vfr conditions are expected but that
could change.


.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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