Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 311116
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
416 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A CLOSED LOW OVER
BOTH COASTS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW IN BETWEEN.  A LARGE EXPANSE OF
CLOUDS WAS SEEN OVER THE PLAINS AND GREAT BASIN AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
OVER THE WEST COAST...WITH RAIN OR SNOW BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE
PLAINS.

TODAY EXPECT THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE DUE TO THE
SATURATED ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK LIFT CONTINUING ACROSS THE EAST HALF
OF THE AREA FROM LAST NIGHT.  THE PRECIPITATION FROM LAST NIGHT WAS
TIED TO CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LESS THAN 5 MB WHERE WEAK
LIFT WAS OCCURRING...SO EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TODAY.  SNOW WILL
GRADUALLY CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING A 500MB TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ACCOMPANIED
BY A COLD FRONT.  ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS LIFT INCREASES AND 700-500MB
FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS.  IN ADDITION THE LEFT EXIT OF THE 500MB JET
STREAK MOVES IN WITH THE TROUGH AXIS.  AS A RESULT HAVE PRECIP.
CHANCES INCREASING AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH IN THE
EVENING...WHICH AGAIN LINES UP WITH VERY LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS AND FAIRLY WEAK LIFT.  OVERNIGHT DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS AND THE WEAK LIFT DECLINES BRINGING THE
SNOW TO AN END.  ANTICIPATE THE RAIN TO GRADUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW
DURING THE EVENING.  THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT WILL FALL AS THE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE PHASE CHANGE
OCCURS.  TOTAL SNOWFALL FROM TODAY AND TONIGHT SHOULD BE UP TO AN
INCH...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER WILL DEVELOP ALLOWING
THE LOW LEVEL JET TO MIX TO THE SURFACE.  WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
MAY DEVELOP OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY DUE TO A DRY ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE A
FAIRLY LAMINAR FLOW OVER THE AREA.  TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY AS CAA MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT THEN WARM ON MONDAY
TO ABOVE NORMAL AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING SUNDAY BUT GRADUALLY DECLINE AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET MOVES EAST.

ZONAL TO WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON TUESDAY BEGINS TO
TRANSITION TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN BY WEDNESDAY.  A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MID-DAY ON
WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS A RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE WEST COAST.  THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION BY EARLY THURSDAY.  SEVERAL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE APEX OF THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENING AND BECOMING MOSTLY ZONAL
AGAIN BY SATURDAY.

TUESDAY WILL BE NEARLY 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE WITH SOUTHWEST
TO WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT PROCEEDS THE COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THE FRONT IS MORE OF A BACK-DOOR FRONT THAT
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND PUSHES SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. COULD SEE A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES MAINLY IN THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP UNTIL
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH LAGS BEHIND THE
TIMING OF THE SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AND LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LACKING.  THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD
FOLLOW THE UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING. CURRENTLY FORECASTING
A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH A TRANSITION TO
ALL SNOW AGAIN AS TEMPERATURES FALL WEDNESDAY EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AGAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS COLDER
AIR AT THE SURFACE BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH
PERSISTENT WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW BENEATH THE WEAKLY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 412 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE TAFS. LOW CLOUDS WILL
LINGER OVER THE AREA WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST THEN NORTH. THERE WILL BE RAIN/SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND THIS EVENING. ANTICIPATING VERY SMALL
AMOUNTS OF RAIN/SNOW SO NO IMPACT FROM THE PRECIPITATION.  CEILINGS
THEN FALL BACK TO IFR DURING THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT NORTH WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...LOCKHART/JTL
AVIATION...JTL



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