Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 201044
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
644 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Jose will pass south and east of Cape Cod today and tonight, and
could produce some scattered showers today and gusty winds
along the coast into Thursday. Otherwise high pressure will be
the main feature and stay in place across the region into early
next week, with temperatures running above normal through the
period, and mainly clear skies Thursday through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
640 AM...For the most part forecast is unchanged, as we look
for winds to increase from the NNE this morning, and becoming
breezy by this afternoon with some gusts nearing 30 mph on the
coast. Showers in the outer bands of Jose continue to struggle
to survive much past the coast as they run into the ridge and
lose forcing as well as encountering drying air.

Previously...As the center of Jose passes S and E of Cape Cod
today, it will also begin to exhibit some effects of a brief
extratropical transition as it gets tugged on by a trough
passing well to the N. this should help expand its wind field a
bit starting today, and will see winds increase during the day,
with some gusts of 25-30 mph possible on the coast late today.
Showers associated with Jose outer bands are working N-NW
onshore but continue to struggle as the run into the strong
ridging. Some clearing is possible this afternoon, mainly in the
north and in the CT valley N of KLEB, but otherwise it will be
mainly cloudy. Highs will range from the upper 60s to the mid
70s, warmest in the CT valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Jose will begin to slow its eastward progression tonight and
eventually become nearly stationary south of the Gulf of ME late
Thursday. The combination of Jose lingering and sfc ridging
building to our north will help maintain a strong pres gradient
and allow breezy conditions to continue overnight into Thursday.
In fact, may see the strongest winds on Thu as flow shifts more
NNW and mixing improves in CAA, albeit weak CAA, and from the
mechanical effects of downsloping.

As for any additional SHRA from Jose, it looks like any chc of
precip will be done by this evening, so mainly dry after that.
Clouds should begin to erode from N-S overnight, with mainly
sunny conditions on Thu. Lows tonight will stay mild, with the
wind keeping up and keeping the atmosphere mixed, with lows in
the mid 50s N to low 60s in the S. Highs on Thu will be aided by
the strong downslope and should work to counteract whatever
weak CAA exists, with highs mostly in the 70s, and approaching
80 in the CT valley.

Also have extended the Heavy surf advisory along the coast
through tonight at least, when coastal directed swell looks to
be at its greatest. May need to push this into thu, but will let
the day shift look at it.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The models are in decent agreement on the long wave pattern
through the upcoming weekend. We begin the period with an upper
ridge across northern New England and the remnants of Jose
meandering well offshore to our south and east. The ridge will
continue to strengthen as we head into the weekend at which
time the remnants of Jose will be kicked well offshore. The
eastern ridge and western trough will hold across the CONUS
through the start of the new work week with predominantly dry
weather and abnormally warm temperatures to continue. By mid
week...hurricane Maria may be lurking off the eastern seaboard
similar to the current tropical system Jose.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term...Coastal terminals should see only very limited
improvement to IFR for a few hours today, but may slip down to
LIFR this evening, despite N winds gusting to 20-25 kts at
times. Inland terminals will see better improvement this
afternoon. All terminals should begin to improve late tonight
as drier air working in on those gusty winds, with VFR expected
everywhere by sunrise Thu. The gusty winds will continue
through Thu.

Long Term...

Fri...NE sfc wind gusting to 25 kt psb at coastal TAF sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Have bumped up the zone S of Casco Bay to gales
through tonight, as we see winds increase during the day.
Otherwise, holding onto SCA for now across the rest of the
waters, but could see some borderline gales outside of the
gales during the day on Thu. Seas will peak tonight and
generally in the 7-11 ft range outside of the bays.

Long Term...

Fri...Small Craft seas and wind gusts are probable outside the
bays.

Sat - Sun...lingering Small Craft seas are likely outside the
bays.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Long period swells will continue through tonight. High tide at
Portland is 10.6 ft around midnight, and conditions may be a
little worse tonight given slightly greater swell, and possibly leading
to minor splash over and some beach erosion.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for MEZ023>028.
NH...High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for NHZ014.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ150>153.
     Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Cempa
SHORT TERM...Cempa
LONG TERM...Schwibs
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...


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