Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 020500
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
100 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND WILL
SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA
OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS ANOTHER
AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OVER THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
1AM UPDATE...
UPDATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT AS THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER. THIS IS MOVING QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST AND BEHIND IT WILL
BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS FOR A WHILE. HOWEVER... THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF DRIZZLE TOWARD THE COAST BY
MORNING.


940 PM UPDATE: MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES
TO LOWER POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS AS THIS
AREA IS NOW MAINLY VOID OF ANY SHOWERS BUT MORE SHOWERS UPSTREAM
COMING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SHOWN ON RADAR. ADJUSTED TEMPS BASED ON
LATEST MESONET DATA. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

535 PM UPDATE: INPUT
LATEST OBS DATA AND MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS. POPS LOOK
GOOD. LOW LEVEL ONSHORE MARITIME AIR MASS WILL SATURATE LOW LEVELS
BY ALTER TONIGHT SO ADDED AREAS OF DRIZZLE INTO FORECAST THAT WILL
CONTINUE WELL INTO MONDAY IN ADDITION TO ANY AREAS OF RAIN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP A WEAK
OVER-RUNNING PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. 1ST INSTALLMENT OF ASSOCIATED PRECIP ON THE WAY THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT STEADIER PRECIP TO TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE MOUNTAINS MAY HANG
ON TO SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
30S IN THE NORTH TO NEAR 40 IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT
RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY EVENING. HIGH
TEMPS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 40S TO NEAR 50.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT
AS ANOTHER WAVE TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG IT. THIS MAY BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND COASTAL MAINE
TOWARD DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY AS DEPICTED IN THE NEW GFS BUT ECMWF
KEEPS THIS PRECIP SOUTH OF THE REGION SO JUST GOING WITH LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT IN SOUTHERN AND
COASTAL ZONES. FARTHER NORTH...EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT.
LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
WHICH WILL LEAVE A FRONT STATIONARY TO OUR SOUTH. MODELS FORM A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ON THIS FRONT AND MOVE THEM IN
SUCCESSION OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. ONLY ONE MODEL
MOVES PRECIPITATION UP INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW
HAMPSHIRE ON TUESDAY WITH OVER A HALF INCH OF RAIN TUESDAY. USED A
BLEND OF MODELS TO TONE THIS DOWN TO LESS THAN 30 PERCENT CHANCE.

ON THURSDAY A DIGGING TROUGH REACHES THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW WITH MANY SURFACE
LOWS. IT IS QUITE IMPOSSIBLE TO TELL WHERE THE MAIN SURFACE LOW
WILL DEVELOP AND THE OVERALL TRACK AT THIS TIME. THE MODELS ARE
ALL SIMILAR BUT DIFFER IN THE DETAILS. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH MONDAY. BECOMING VFR MONDAY NIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS IN SOUTHERN ZONES.

LONG TERM...EXPECT MVFR IN SOUTHERN AREAS EARLY TUESDAY THEN
IMPROVEMENT. EXPECT SOME FOG TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. EXPECT MVFR/IFR OFF AND ON THROUGH FRIDAY IN
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS.

LONG TERM...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA...
HOWEVER A PERSISTENT EASTERLY TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE
SEAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOME MUCH NEEDED WETTING RAINS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
NO FIRE ISSUES ANTICIPATED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE



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