Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 041609
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1209 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH TODAY AND COULD BRING A STRAY
SHOWER TO THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE
TODAY. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS DRY WEATHER AND GRADUALLY WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDWEEK. ANOTHER PASSING TROUGH WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1205 PM...RADAR ECHOES LOOK MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN WHATS ACTUALLY
REACHING THE GROUND...AND COULD SEE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
RAIN IN SHOWERS THRU ABOUT MID AFTERNOON IN SW NH...WITH SOME
SPKLS JUST TO THE N AND E OF THERE. LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS...AT
LEAST RAP/HRRR...ALONG WITH 12Z NAM12...SHOW THAT TREND WELL THRU
THE AFTERNOON...WITH ANY PRECIP WINDING DOWN AFTER 18-19Z. ALSO
LOWERED MAXES A DEGREE OR SO BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND THE CLOUD
COVER.

920 AM...SOME FINE TUNING OF POPS/SKY THRU TODAY AS WE GET SOME
OVERRUNNING FROM DEVELOPING SFC LOW S OF NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN VERY
DRY LOW LEVELS...EXPECTING ANY SHRA THAT MAKE INTO CWA TO BE
LIGHT /OR JUST SPRINKLES/ AS THEY FALL FROM MID-DECK...MAINLY S
AND W OF A LINE FROM KHIE-KCON-KPSM. ANY PRECIP WILL BE WINDING
DOWN BETWEEN 21Z AND SUNSET. MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE MORE CLOUDS
THAN SUN AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SUNNY BREAKS IN MOST
SPOTS. EXPECT THE THE MOST SUN WILL BE IN INTERIOR WRN AND CENTRAL
ME.

640 AM...BASED ON SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS AND CURRENT RADAR
MOSAIC...I ADJUSTED 1ST PERIOD POPS UPWARD OVER WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. 1ST PERIOD GRIDS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED TO
REFLECT THE LATEST MESONET VALUES FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE.

PREV DISC...
AT 06Z...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. A
1010 MILLIBAR LOW WAS VICINITY OF THE DELMARVA. FOR TODAY...CLOUDS
SPREAD NORTH AND EAST WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WITH SURFACE
LOW PASSING OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH. ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS...A FEW
SHOWERS MAY MAKE A RUN AT THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY. OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE HOLIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST TONIGHT
THEN CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. CAN`T RULE OUT SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE OVERNIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 80F ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER RIDGE. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DISSIPATE OR MOVE EAST IN THE
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING ALOFT AND
EVENTUALLY AT THE SURFACE AS WELL. ON MONDAY THERE SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD 80S AND EVEN POTENTIALLY A FEW 90S. A SEA BREEZE WILL
BE LIKELY AT THE COAST AND WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
THERE.

UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WARM WEATHER CONTINUES BUT A SOUTHERLY
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT OVER MUCH OF MAINE
AND INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST MAY LIMIT TEMPERATURES OVER
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. BEYOND THIS THE TWO MAIN FORECAST MODELS DISAGREE A BIT.
GFS PUSHES THE TROUGH AND FRONT THROUGH FULLY WHILE THE ECMWF
LINGERS THE BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH
THE FRONT LINGERING OFFSHORE... VARIOUS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG IT AND BRING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY PRIMARILY
TOWARD THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. SCATTERED MVFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN
SHOWERS.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THROUGH SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS AND WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WITH ALL OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA/SCHWIBS
SHORT TERM...SCHWIBS
LONG TERM...KIMBLE
AVIATION...
MARINE...


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