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000
FXUS61 KGYX 250917
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
517 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP
THINGS COOL AND RAINY. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY...BUT
WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY BEFORE WE GET SUNSHINE AND DRY
WEATHER....AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH WILL
BRING ANOTHER DRY DAY ON TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE
REGION MID WEEK AND COULD SET OFF SOME SHOWERS. MUCH WARMER AIR
WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO KEEP THINGS CURRENT USING OBSERVATIONS.

PREV DISC...LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD
CURRENTLY. THIS LOW WILL EVENTUALLY BE CAUGHT BY THE UPPER LOW AND
LIFT NORTH VERY SLOWLY. MODELS INDICATE A DRY SLOT WILL MOVE INTO
THE COASTAL REGIONS WHICH WILL SHUT OFF PRECIPITATION TEMPORARILY
DURING THE DAY FOR COASTAL REGIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE
COOL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY DO A LOOP BEFORE FINALLY PULLING AWAY. AS
SFC LOW PULLS AWAY PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST WILL MOVE BACK INTO
COASTAL REGIONS. STEADY RAIN SHOULD TAPER TO SHOWERS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON SUNDAY IN SRN NH AND BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON IN THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL MIX WITH
OR CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST MAINE AND
NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR A TIME LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. SOME ACCUMULATION IS PSBL IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING CURRENTLY OVER THE CONUS BREAKS DOWN
EARLY THIS WEEK...BUT STRONG BLOCKS UP AND DOWNSTREAM WILL KEEP
LOW AMPLITUDE OMEGA PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
CONUS...WITH STRONG RIDGING BUILDING TO OUR S...AND SOME VERY ARM
AIR MOVING BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

SUN NIGHT SHOULD BE THE TRANSITION PERIOD AS WE SHIFT INTO MORE NW
FLOW...AND A SUPPLY OF DRIER AIR. SOME SHRA MAY LINGER ACROSS NRN
AND ERN ZONE IN THE EVE...BUT THINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ON MON...THE DOWNSLOPE WILL KEEP THE COASTAL PLAIN
MAINLY SUNNY...BUT LOOKS FOR SOME CLOUDS...AND MAYBE A FEW SPKLS
IN THE MTNS DURING MAX HEATING TIME. MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE
RUNNING BLO NORMAL...BUT WILL STILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S IN MOST
PLACES...WHICH WILL FEEL MUCH WARMER COMPARED TO THE WEEKEND.

WILL START TO SEE SOME WARMER AIR MOVING IN ON TUE...AS THE SFC
HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND TEMPS CLIMBING TO AROUND NORMAL...WELL
INTO THE 60S IN THE NORTH...AND LOW TO MID 70S IN THE SOUTH.

THE NEXT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A
WARM FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME ORGANIZED
CONVECTION DEVELOP ALONG THIS WARM FRONT AS WELL...AS MODELS
SUGGESTING IT COMES THROUGH WITH SOME MID-UPR LEVEL FORCING. THIS
FRONT WILL USHER IN SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AIR WITH MAXES PUSH INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN MANY SPOTS...ALTHOUGH SEA BREEZES WILL
LKLY KEEP THE SHORE COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BECOMING
VFR SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THROUGH TUE. CHANCE FOR SOME FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA ON WED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY.
WAVES WILL REMAIN HIGH EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL COME DOWN AS SFC LOW
PARKS ITSELF OVER THE WATERS. WIND FCST WILL BE DIFFICULT WITH THE
LOW LOOPING AROUND JUST OFF THE COAST.

LONG TERM...COULD SEE LINGERING SCA INTO SUN NIGHT...BUT THE
WATERS SHOULD CALM DOWN BY MONDAY...AND GENERALLY SHOULD REMAIN
BLO SCA LVLS THROUGH WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY WET. NO PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$