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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 260739
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
339 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will shift to the east coast with a warm front
lifting north through the area tonight. Precipitation chances
will develop this afternoon, and increase tonight as the warm
front moves through the region. Warm temperatures in store for
Ohio Valley this weekend with mainly dry weather conditions. The
threat for showers and thunderstorms returns Monday as a cold
front approaches from the west.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Large area of surface high pressure centered over southeast
Canada to shift off to the east coast today.

High level clouds spilling over upstream mid/upper level ridge
will be thickest over the southwest this morning. Where mostly
clear skies will be observed over the northeast - temperatures
will drop to lows in the mid and mid 30s. Frost development will
be possible over the northeast and have continued frost
advisory thru 9 AM.

Upstream mid level ridge axis to build east across the area
today with southwesterly flow developing on its back side.
Moisture to increase with a band of showers (with possibly some
embedded thunderstorms) moving into the area late in the
afternoon and into the evening. Have limited pops to chance
category thru the daylight hours.

Temperatures to warm up today prior to thicker clouds and pcpn
moving in during the late afternoon. Highs to range from the
upper 60s northwest to the to upper 70s southeast.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
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Band of showers and embedded thunderstorms to pivot northeast
thru the area this evening in a region of favorable low level
theta-e advection. The best coverage of pcpn will occur across
west central Ohio this evening where more favorable forcing will
be located. Behind this initial band of showers, a chance for
rain will continue but coverage will be more limited. Mild lows
generally in the upper 50s.

In warm sector the favorable forcing shifts to the north with
pcpn chances diminishing by Saturday afternoon. Temperatures
warm around 10 degrees above normal with highs on Saturday in
the upper 70s to around 80. Breezy conditions develop with south
winds gusting up to 35 mph.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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H5 ridge will be fairly expansive across the eastern CONUS to start
the period. Further ridge amplification/height rises will occur on
Sunday, promoting warmer daytime highs in the low to mid 80s. Some
weak instability will be present in this warm/humid air mass, but no
synoptic forcing will really be present. However, will have to see
if CAMs try to initialize any pcpn that would be diurnally driven.

Ridge axis nudges eastward on Monday, with a shortwave trough
working its way through the Midwest region. Clouds increase from the
west throughout the day, with PoPs increasing substantially Monday
night into Tuesday. QPF footprint not overly impressive with this
system given the progressive nature of the shortwave trough and
associated surface cold front. Weak cold front swings through early
on Tuesday, moderating temperatures slightly. Most of the CWA will
still observe daytime highs in the middle 70s to near 80.

Weak ridging returns on Wednesday, keeping an unstable air mass in
place across the region. This will provide at least a chance of PoPs
across the Ohio Valley. Another shortwave trough will begin carving
its way through the Upper Plains on Thursday, which will eventually
work its way into our region. This will increase chances for
showers/storms in our fa.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High level clouds to continue to spill into the area today
as a mid level ridge builds across the area. As the ridge axis
shifts to the east moisture will increase late in the day into
this evening.

Clouds will thicken and lower while ceilings remain VFR this
afternoon as the mid level ridge axis shifts east and the flow
backs southwesterly.

The favorable lift will results in a band of showers and
embedded thunderstorms that pivots north thru the area late in
the day into this evening. Have a mention of VCSH for this pcpn
band but brief MVFR conditions will be possible in rain showers.

East winds at 10 kts or less early will become southeast at 10
to 15 kts this afternoon with gusts up to 20 kts.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions are possible on Saturday.
Thunderstorms are possible Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ026-034-035-
     043>046-052>056-063>065-073-074.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Clark
AVIATION...AR