Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
301 FXUS63 KILX 170442 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1142 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - At least low chances for occasional rain and a few thunderstorms are expected tonight into Saturday, with the best chances south of I-70. Amounts should generally be under a quarter inch, but some localized amounts in excess of an inch are possible, mainly south of I-70. - A warming trend will take place through the weekend into Monday, with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s Sunday and MOnday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 937 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 A few showers still linger in eastern and southeastern IL this evening, but once that finally moves east, fog will become a concern, especially in areas where there was precip this afternoon. CMI already has dropped to 1/2 mile and am expecting more sites to drop after midnight. Will be making adjustments to the forecast for the overnight hours, to wx grids for fog. Rest of the forecast looks fine. Auten && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 A slow moving frontal system with a couple of embedded disturbances will keep rain chances in the forecast into Saturday, with the primary disturbance targeting I-70 southward late tonight into Friday morning. Another band of convection currently near the frontal convergence zone in SE IA could also move into the Illinois River Valley late this afternoon/early evening. Otherwise, once this afternoon`s disturbance exits in the next few hours, generally light and low probability precipitation is in the forecast, mainly in the more diurnally favored afternoon periods. Low shear and low instability indicate low probabilities for severe weather. High pressure should keep conditions dry Saturday night through Sunday night, then chances for a more significant weather system approach for early next week, with probabilities highest on Tuesday at this point. Rich moisture and increasingly strong shear indicate severe thunderstorms could take place at some point ahead of this frontal system, although predictability in timing/location of severe weather remains low. Temperatures look to follow a warming trend into the weekend, with highs in the upper 70s Friday, rising to the mid and upper 80s by Sunday and Monday, and lows around 60 tonight, but only upper 60s by Monday night. Highs look to trend down into the 70s again by Wednesday behind the earlier mentioned cold front Tuesday/Tuesday night. 37 && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night) Issued at 1142 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites; however, still expecting fog to develop at sites that have seen more clear skies this evening...which would be PIA. CMI has already gone down to below 1 mile earlier, but now it is over 2sm. Given the amount of rain they have had...this seems reasonable at the moment. CMI will go back down toward morning. All sites will see IFR conditions, but PIA will see LIFR as vis goes down to 1/2sm at times. Will continue the TEMPO groups in the morning for all sites, but then improve slowly in the morning for PIA and BMI, but quickly for SPI, DEC, CMI. Clear skies expected tomorrow evening. Winds will be light and variable through the 24hr period. Auten && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$