344
FXUS63 KILX 161950
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
250 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- At least low chances for occasional rain and a few thunderstorms
  are expected tonight into Saturday, with the best chances south
  of I-70. Amounts should generally be under a quarter inch, but
  some localized amounts in excess of an inch are possible,
  mainly south of I-70.

- A warming trend will take place through the weekend into Monday,
  with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s Sunday and MOnday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

A slow moving frontal system with a couple of embedded
disturbances will keep rain chances in the forecast into Saturday,
with the primary disturbance targeting I-70 southward late tonight
into Friday morning. Another band of convection currently near the
frontal convergence zone in SE IA could also move into the
Illinois River Valley late this afternoon/early evening.
Otherwise, once this afternoon`s disturbance exits in the next few
hours, generally light and low probability precipitation is in
the forecast, mainly in the more diurnally favored afternoon
periods. Low shear and low instability indicate low probabilities
for severe weather.

High pressure should keep conditions dry Saturday night through
Sunday night, then chances for a more significant weather system
approach for early next week, with probabilities highest on
Tuesday at this point. Rich moisture and increasingly strong
shear indicate severe thunderstorms could take place at some point
ahead of this frontal system, although predictability in
timing/location of severe weather remains low.

Temperatures look to follow a warming trend into the weekend, with
highs in the upper 70s Friday, rising to the mid and upper 80s by
Sunday and Monday, and lows around 60 tonight, but only upper 60s
by Monday night. Highs look to trend down into the 70s again by
Wednesday behind the earlier mentioned cold front Tuesday/Tuesday
night.

37

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Sct -SHRA with isold TSRA expected until 23Z-01Z as a shortwave
disturbance moves through the area. MVFR cigs/vsbys will be
occasional. A weak frontal zone will move through overnight
allowing for a few continued showers, but too low probability for
mention in TAFs. Nevertheless, light winds along the frontal zone
and recent precipitation will allow for fog development which
could bring IFR or worse vsbys approximately 10Z-15Z. Surface
winds SW 8-14 kts until 00Z, then decreasing to light and
variable by 06Z.

37

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$