093
FXUS63 KILX 162344
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
644 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- At least low chances for occasional rain and a few thunderstorms
  are expected tonight into Saturday, with the best chances south
  of I-70. Amounts should generally be under a quarter inch, but
  some localized amounts in excess of an inch are possible,
  mainly south of I-70.

- A warming trend will take place through the weekend into Monday,
  with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s Sunday and MOnday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

A slow moving frontal system with a couple of embedded
disturbances will keep rain chances in the forecast into Saturday,
with the primary disturbance targeting I-70 southward late tonight
into Friday morning. Another band of convection currently near the
frontal convergence zone in SE IA could also move into the
Illinois River Valley late this afternoon/early evening.
Otherwise, once this afternoon`s disturbance exits in the next few
hours, generally light and low probability precipitation is in
the forecast, mainly in the more diurnally favored afternoon
periods. Low shear and low instability indicate low probabilities
for severe weather.

High pressure should keep conditions dry Saturday night through
Sunday night, then chances for a more significant weather system
approach for early next week, with probabilities highest on
Tuesday at this point. Rich moisture and increasingly strong
shear indicate severe thunderstorms could take place at some point
ahead of this frontal system, although predictability in
timing/location of severe weather remains low.

Temperatures look to follow a warming trend into the weekend, with
highs in the upper 70s Friday, rising to the mid and upper 80s by
Sunday and Monday, and lows around 60 tonight, but only upper 60s
by Monday night. Highs look to trend down into the 70s again by
Wednesday behind the earlier mentioned cold front Tuesday/Tuesday
night.

37

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 644 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

All sites will begin as VFR with scattered CU and broken AC
clouds. Unfortunately, given the flow, these clouds will continue
through the evening hours til after midnight. The rain over the
CMI area, should be east of the TAF site by 00z, then no precip is
expected at any TAF site the rest of the TAF period. Overnight,
Fog will develop overnight into tomorrow morning...given the
light winds, the partly cloudy skies and ample low level moisture.
LIFR vis is possible at all sites, but given there could still be
cloud cover preventing max radiational cooling, will go with a
TEMPO group for the fog in the morning. By 14z, after the sun is
fully up, vis will quickly improve at most sites, except PIA and
BMI. Around noon all sites will be back to full VFR with scattered
clouds. Winds will be light and variable through the 24hr period.


Auten

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$