301
FXUS63 KILX 170442
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1142 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- At least low chances for occasional rain and a few thunderstorms
  are expected tonight into Saturday, with the best chances south
  of I-70. Amounts should generally be under a quarter inch, but
  some localized amounts in excess of an inch are possible,
  mainly south of I-70.

- A warming trend will take place through the weekend into Monday,
  with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s Sunday and MOnday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 937 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

A few showers still linger in eastern and southeastern IL this
evening, but once that finally moves east, fog will become a
concern, especially in areas where there was precip this
afternoon. CMI already has dropped to 1/2 mile and am expecting
more sites to drop after midnight. Will be making adjustments to
the forecast for the overnight hours, to wx grids for fog. Rest of
the forecast looks fine.

Auten

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

A slow moving frontal system with a couple of embedded
disturbances will keep rain chances in the forecast into Saturday,
with the primary disturbance targeting I-70 southward late tonight
into Friday morning. Another band of convection currently near the
frontal convergence zone in SE IA could also move into the
Illinois River Valley late this afternoon/early evening.
Otherwise, once this afternoon`s disturbance exits in the next few
hours, generally light and low probability precipitation is in
the forecast, mainly in the more diurnally favored afternoon
periods. Low shear and low instability indicate low probabilities
for severe weather.

High pressure should keep conditions dry Saturday night through
Sunday night, then chances for a more significant weather system
approach for early next week, with probabilities highest on
Tuesday at this point. Rich moisture and increasingly strong
shear indicate severe thunderstorms could take place at some point
ahead of this frontal system, although predictability in
timing/location of severe weather remains low.

Temperatures look to follow a warming trend into the weekend, with
highs in the upper 70s Friday, rising to the mid and upper 80s by
Sunday and Monday, and lows around 60 tonight, but only upper 60s
by Monday night. Highs look to trend down into the 70s again by
Wednesday behind the earlier mentioned cold front Tuesday/Tuesday
night.

37

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites; however, still
expecting fog to develop at sites that have seen more clear skies
this evening...which would be PIA. CMI has already gone down to
below 1 mile earlier, but now it is over 2sm. Given the amount of
rain they have had...this seems reasonable at the moment. CMI will
go back down toward morning. All sites will see IFR conditions,
but PIA will see LIFR as vis goes down to 1/2sm at times. Will
continue the TEMPO groups in the morning for all sites, but then
improve slowly in the morning for PIA and BMI, but quickly for
SPI, DEC, CMI. Clear skies expected tomorrow evening. Winds will
be light and variable through the 24hr period.

Auten

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$